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A satellite overview shows the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Facility, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, near Qom, Iran, June 29, 2025
Hard Numbers: US intel shows two Iranian nuclear sites survive, EU adopts fresh Russia sanctions, Pakistani bird-seller loses nest egg, CBS sunsets Colbert, Cancer takes a long-term hit
1: A new US intelligence assessment says that the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last month destroyed only one of the three sites targeted. While Fordow – Iran’s most fortified enrichment site – was mostly destroyed, the Natanz and Isfahan sites likely did not suffer the same damage. US President Donald Trump, who has said all the sites were “obliterated”, reportedly rejected a more thorough, weeks-long bombing campaign because it would have clashed with his stated objective of disentangling the US from foreign conflicts.
18: The European Union on Friday approved the 18th package of sanctions against Russia over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The centerpiece of the measures is a new cap on the price that members can pay for Russian oil. The package, which requires unanimous approval from EU members, overcame opposition from Slovakia, which won some exceptions from wider EU plans to phase out Russian energy imports altogether.
10: After ten years in business, a Pakistani bird-seller recently found his bank accounts suddenly frozen by the government. The reason? He had sold a parrot to prominent journalist and bird collector Asad Ali Toor, who routinely ruffles powerful feathers with his criticisms of Pakistan’s military and judiciary. The government has locked the accounts of others who had done business with Toor too, in what looks like a bid to isolate and silence a prominent critic.
32: After 32 seasons on air, the lights will go down next year on the Late Show, CBS's flagship evening comedy and interview program, which has been hosted by Trump-critic Steven Colbert since 2015. CBS said the move was made for financial reasons, as late night shows have been losing audience and revenue for years. Parent company Paramount said it was unrelated to a controversial settlement with Trump over an allegedly biased edit of a “60 Minutes” interview with his 2024 election rival Kamala Harris. Paramount is also, as it happens, currently seeking US government approval for an $8 billion mega-merger with Skydance Media.
⅓: Good news from the front lines of the “War on Cancer”: the age-related death rate from the disease in the US is fully ⅓ lower than it was in the 1990s, mirroring progress in other developed countries. Experts attribute the improvement to a combination of public policy (such as smoking bans) and scientific breakthroughs. Building on those gains, and expanding them globally, remains a key challenge.
Amir Seaid Iravani premanent representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran speaks during the UN Security Council on June 24, 2025 in New York City.
Iran was hit – did the nuclear non-proliferation regime take the blow?
It’s not clear yet how much the US attack on Iran's nuclear sites this weekend set back the Islamic Republic's ability to develop atomic weapons, but experts say the airstrikes almost certainly threw a bomb into something larger: the global nuclear non-proliferation regime.
Since 1970, the UN-backed Non-Proliferation Treaty, known as the NPT, has been the backbone of efforts to prevent more countries from developing nuclear weapons. Nearly 200 countries have signed it – including Iran. But with the stroke of a B-2, Trump may have wrecked it.
The treaty formally recognizes the nuclear arsenals of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the US. All other countries promise not to develop those weapons – though they can use nuclear power for civilian uses. They agree to inspections from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure they aren’t secretly developing weapons, under threat of sanctions.
Since the treaty's signing, just four nations have acquired nuclear weapons. North Korea, India, and Pakistan, as well as Israel – which despite Tel Aviv’s denials is widely believed to have secretly weaponized its program in the 1960’s. None of these countries had signed the NPT, though, so the international condemnation of their development was, structurally, limited.
Overall, experts say, the treaty has been a success. “There are more countries today that had started nuclear weapons programs and decided to stop them than there are countries that have nuclear weapons,” says Matthew Bunn, professor of Energy, National Security, and Foreign Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. “So our efforts to stop these programs succeed more often than they fail.”
However, US and Israel’s attacks on Iran disregarded the NPT mechanisms entirely, something that could raise doubts about the value of the treaty among other countries that are party to it.
“The US is seen by many countries, particularly in the Global South, as a bully that uses its military power outside of international law,” says Bunn. “That’s a problem for the US being able to negotiate what it wants in forums like the NPT.”
History suggests it may be worth having nukes. Nuclear weapons are seen as the ultimate deterrent to invasion or regime change, making them particularly sought after by countries at odds with global powers or aggressive neighbors.
Iraq and Libya gave up their nuclear weapons programs in the 1990s and early 2000s, while Ukraine surrendered its actual arsenal after the Soviet collapse. The first two were invaded by the US and NATO, while the third was invaded by Russia. Meanwhile, North Korea successfully built several bombs and has avoided regime change despite being on a war footing against the US-backed South for 75 years.
Since the attack, Iran has threatened to abandon the NPT, calling the attacks an “irreparable blow,” with lawmakers considering the possibility of pulling out on Sunday. If they leave the treaty, it raises the likelihood that more countries could follow suit, meaning the world could see more nuclear weapons development, with less international oversight.
“Countries that fear they may be on the pointy end of an American stick will be more motivated than before to seek nuclear weapons,” says Bunn.
But it's not just America’s enemies who want nukes. Many of Washington’s allies have long agreed to forego nuclear weapons because they had the protection of America’s own nuclear umbrella. But now, Bunn says, “American allies are beginning to wonder if they need their own nuclear weapons because of the US president who routinely questions whether the US should defend its allies.”
South Korea and Poland, which share borders with nuclear-armed North Korea and Russia respectively – are both asking that question. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk is “talking seriously” about obtaining nuclear capabilities and in South Korea, polls have found that as much as 70% of the population supports having its own arsenal.
“A number of countries are saying to themselves, we've rested our entire security policy on the notion that America will always be a reliable partner. And it looks like that may not be true. Do we need nuclear weapons of our own?” says Bunn.
Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol along a road in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.
India and Pakistan inch toward a major clash
Nerves are fraught throughout Pakistan after authorities said Wednesday they have “credible intelligence” that India plans to launch military strikes on its soil by Friday, fueling fears of an outright clash between the two nuclear-armed archrivals. Troops from both sides have been exchanging fire in the disputed territory of Kashmir since a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled section killed 26 civilians last Tuesday. Both China and the US are calling for restraint.
Tensions are spiraling rapidly. India closed its airspace to Pakistan on Wednesday and ordered nearly all Pakistani citizens to leave the country last week. Pakistan – while denying any involvement in the attacks – also canceled visas last week for most Indian citizens in retaliation. The scenes of rapid flight evoked painful memories of the 1947 Partition when Hindus in Pakistan and Muslims in India fled bloody ethnic massacres in the newly formed nations.
How bad could it get? The two countries have had two major wars, in 1965 and 1971, both of which India won, in the latter case quite decisively. In the ensuing decades, however, India has utterly outstripped Pakistan economically, militarily, and diplomatically, which means that Islamabad’s chances of prevailing in a conventional confrontation are very slim.
The balance of power shifted nonetheless when Pakistan began developing nuclear weapons in 1972 to match the India program begun in 1967. This has prevented a full-scale attack ever since. When the two sides went to war in 1999, hostilities lasted just over two months and were geographically limited to the Himalayas. If New Delhi should be foolish enough to existentially threaten its neighbor, it raises the grim – albeit unlikely – prospect of a nuclear exchange.
We’re watching for a limited engagement, but we’re far from sanguine about the risks.
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech during the plenary session of the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit at the Grand Palais in Paris, France, on Feb. 11, 2025.
France’s nuclear power supply to fuel AI
France has real AI ambitions — and nuclear energy might be the key to unlocking them. Ahead of the AI Action Summit, which kicked off on Monday at the Grand Palais in Paris, the French government announced $113 billion in new investments in artificial intelligence at the summit, investments that will be powered by 1 gigawatt of dedicated nuclear power.
The initiative, spearheaded by the British data center company FluidStack, will begin construction in the third quarter of 2025. It seeks to achieve a similar scale to Stargate, the US government-backed project to expand the data center capacity of industry leader OpenAI.
The Wall Street Journal reports that France has 57 nuclear reactors at 18 separate plants, generating two-thirds of its national energy supply from nuclear, a clean energy source. Additionally, it had surplus energy last year, which it exported.Fish and sashimi imported from Tokyo are displayed for sale at a market on August 24, 2023 in Hong Kong, China.
Fish fight: China vs Japan
Japan, along with many independent scientists and the International Atomic Energy Agency, have said the water is safe. Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida even publicly ate fish from the affected area. But China isn’t buying it. Beijing sharply protested the release, banned imports of Japanese fish, and urged others to follow its lead.
This conflict appears to go well beyond safety concerns. In fact, China has been accused of deliberately spreading misinformation about the health risks from this event, prompting vandalism and threats against Japanese people and companies in China.
But so far, China has been unable to persuade more of Japan’s neighbors to join in the outrage. At a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in July, China called on member states to denounce Japan’s water discharge plan, but the joint communique that followed the meeting ignored the issue entirely. At another ASEAN meeting earlier this month, China’s Premier Li Qiang sharply criticized both Japan’s water plan and Kishida, but the issue was then dropped.
It appears that wariness of China’s growing influence has been a more important factor in the Great East Asian Fish Fight than the region’s traditional mistrust of Japan.