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Activists protest at Nigerian Embassy against Ecowas' military intervention in Niger
France to leave Niger
Macron said that he still regards Mohamed Bazoum, the democratically elected leader now held prisoner by the junta, as the country's "sole legitimate authority."
The move leaves France’s counter terrorism strategy in the Sahel region in tatters, after Paris was forced to withdraw its troops from neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso in recent years following military coups. France’s exit from resource-rich Niger will leave a power vacuum that both Russia’s Wagner Group and Islamic extremists will seek to fill.
Colonel Sidi Mohamed delivers a message as he stands with other Nigerien junta leaders.
New African alliance bolsters military junta in Niger
In what could prove to be a major stumbling block to restoring democratic rule in Niger, on Saturday its ruling junta signed a mutual defense pact with the governments of neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso.
The three countries have all seen their governments toppled by military coups since 2020. Niger’s fell most recently in June with the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum, who remains under arrest on charges of “high treason.”
The new Alliance of Sahel States, as it is known, obliges members to defend each other should any of them come under attack. Not coincidentally perhaps, the pact was signed a week after Niger accused France of plotting to invade the country to restore Bazoum’s presidency.
France refuses to recognize Niger’s new military government, which has asked Paris to withdraw its troops and ambassador. There is fierce opposition to the presence of the former colonial power in the region: French troops have been removed from Mali and Burkina Faso, and Mali has asked the United Nations peacekeeping mission MINUSMA to leave its territory as well.
The new pact also represents a challenge to the power of ECOWAS, a West African economic and political union, of which all three countries are also members. ECOWAS itself had initially threatened military intervention to restore Bazoum, but has since dropped the idea.
In addition to mutual defense, the Alliance obliges its members to jointly tackle armed rebellions. All three nations face the threat of Islamic insurgency within their borders, and both Mali and Burkina Faso have relied on Russian mercenaries to help fight jihadists. The Alliance may now make it easier for Russia to expand its influence to Niger, which had been in discussions with the Wagner Group prior to the death of founder Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash on Aug. 23.
Thousands of Nigeriens gather in front of the French army headquarter, in support of the putschist soldiers and to demand the French army to leave, in Niamey, Niger.
Niger junta calls out France
The West African nation of Niger has accused former colonial power France of plotting military intervention to reinstate the government of ousted leader Mohamed Bazoum, who was removed from power in a military coup on June 26.
In a statement on national television, a spokesman for the ruling junta, Colonel Amadou Abdramane, claimed that France was deploying forces to other West African countries as “part of preparations for an aggression against Niger” and that military cargo aircraft were unloading supplies and equipment in Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Benin.
Paris, for its part, did not respond to claims that it had deployed troops elsewhere in the region but said it backed the position of ECOWAS, an economic bloc of West African states, that has threatened to use force to reinstate Niger’s ousted leader, elected in the country's first free polls in 2021.
The coup has galvanized anti-French sentiment in Niger, and the junta has demanded France withdraw the 1,500 soldiers it maintains in the country. The United States, meanwhile, also has about 1,100 soldiers in Niger and has begun to relocate its troops “as a precaution” from Niamey to the central city of Agadez.
Both France and the US maintained a military presence as a bulwark against Islamic insurgents, who have terrorized other nations in the Sahel region, and there’s growing concern that withdrawal of Western forces could create a power vacuum Islamists would rush to fill. What's more, the Russian mercenary group known as Wagner is also looking to gain more of a foothold in Niger and other West African states.
For more on the Wagner Group's aims in Africa, see our explainer here.
People pose with soldiers as they celebrate in support of the putschists in a street of Libreville, Gabon.
Another day, another coup in Africa
Just hours after being declared the winner of a fraught presidential election that the opposition says was plagued by irregularities, Ali Bongo Ondimba, the president of the central African state of Gabon, was ousted in a military coup – the seventh on the African continent in just two years.
Gen. Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, Bongo’s cousin who’s closely linked to the ruling regime, says he is now the president of a transitional government.
Some key background. Bongo, 64, came to power in 2009 after the death of his father, Omar Bongo Ondimba, who ruled the country for more than four decades. The dynasty has been accused of corruption and self-enrichment while many Gabonese are impoverished, with unemployment hovering at nearly 22%.
The oil-rich country is a member of OPEC, the cartel of oil-producing nations, but profits are overwhelmingly reaped by the elite. (Nine members of the Bongo family are currently under investigation in France for embezzlement or corruption.)
Holed up in his residence, Bongo was filmed on Wednesday asking for help, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the restoration of the constitutional order, while the African Union also condemned the coup.
African leaders are indeed worried. This comes just weeks after a coup in the West African state of Niger that’s threatened to further destabilize the entire continent (more on that here). And some analysts say that failure to hold those junta leaders accountable has sent a powerful message to wannabe putschists throughout the continent.Niger's security forces stands guard as pro junta supporters take part in a demonstration in front of a French army base in Niamey, Niger.
Niger’s junta to try ousted president for “high treason”
The prospect of a diplomatic solution in the West African country of Niger – more than two weeks after a military coup – appears more remote than ever after military leaders announced that they’ll prosecute the recently deposed leader.
After weeks of back-and-forth with regional leaders, junta personnel say they will try President Mohamed Bazoum, who’s currently in custody along with his wife and son, for “high treason.”
Quick background. The Western-aligned Bazoum came to power in 2021, becoming the former French colony’s first democratically elected head of state.
Indeed, the country of 25 million, one of the poorest in the world, is of great significance to global power brokers like the US, France, and Russia. Read more here.
Though it’s unclear when the trial might start, the hefty charges could carry the death penalty in Niger.
What’s more, many say that there’s no way that Bazoum would get a fair trial because the new justice minister has close ties to the junta.
This comes as a West African regional bloc, known as ECOWAS, has tried to engage with the junta to reinstate Bazoum – which has so far been a non-starter for the military. As diplomatic efforts foundered, ECOWAS said last week that it had put a military force on standby as proof that it was ready to intervene militarily to reinstate the constitutional order. This only caused the junta to double down as they promptly threatened to kill Bazoum.
The latest threat suggests that the junta leaders feel confident that regional forces are full of bluster and aren’t really prepared to fight it out. Are they right?
Niger's junta supporters take part in a demonstration in front of a French army base in Niamey, Niger, on Aug. 11, 2023.
Talk, not troops, in Niger
West African nations continue to dither on using force in Niger, even after last week’s resolution by the Economic Community of West African States to send in troops to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.
Instead, Nigerian President and ECOWAS Chairman Bola Tinubu is pursuing diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis, including green-lighting a mission to Niger by a delegation of Islamic scholars, who met with coup leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani for several hours on Saturday.
Tchiani is playing up the historic relationship between the neighboring nations, claiming that the coup was “well intended” to avert an imminent threat to both Niger and Nigeria (presumably from jihadists) and that the two countries “were not only neighbors but brothers and sisters who should resolve issues amicably.”
Meanwhile, the Nigeria Labour Congress issued a statement on Sunday warning ECOWAS against the use of military force, claiming that it would cause instability and loss of life in the entire region and endanger the lives of Bazoum and his family.
Bazoum remains under house arrest with his wife and 20-year-old son, reportedly in dire conditions in an unlit basement. The ousted leader said they had gone without electricity for a week, had no access to medication, and that his family was subsisting on dry rice and pasta. While the junta allowed a doctor to visit Saturday and bring some food, Bazoum’s supporters fear the plan is to “starve him to death” and are pleading for Western nations to intervene.
But any such intervention is proving tricky. While France talked tough at the beginning of the coup, on Sunday the French defense minister said his country would support the latest diplomatic efforts by ECOWAS. Rising anti-French and pro-Russian sentiment in Niger is complicating efforts to resolve the crisis, now in its third week with no clear end in sight.
For more on what the US and Russia want for Niger, click here.
Members of a military council that staged a coup in Niger attend a rally at a stadium in Niamey, Niger.
Is West Africa headed for war?
Almost two weeks after a military junta seized power in the West African state of Niger, the situation is becoming increasingly unstable, and hopes are fading fast that constitutional order can be restored.
The latest. On Thursday, members of ECOWAS, a West African bloc of 15 nations currently led by Nigeria, announced that they had standby forces in place ready to intervene militarily to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, who became Niger’s first democratically elected leader in 2021.
In response, junta militants, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, said they would kill Bazoum, who’s currently under arrest, if ECOWAS dares to intervene.
Even before that, there were broad fears for the safety of Bazoum, and his family, who reportedly have scarce access to food, water, and electricity.
What’s more, in a sign that the junta has no intention of backing down, Tchiani announced that he is now the official head of state, tapping a new cabinet, made up of both civilian and junta representatives – though few people believe the noncombatants will have much sway.
But West African states aren’t the only ones deeply invested in Niger’s fate. Outsiders – like France and the US, as well as Russia – are keeping close tabs on the deepening disaster.
Why is this landlocked country of 25 million caught in the crosshairs of geopolitical tug-of-war?
The French Connection. Many countries in the Sahel are former French colonies, and so Paris, for its part, sees the unraveling of the region as an indictment of its colonialist past. Since granting these states independence, France has been invested in state-building programs aimed, in theory, at rebuilding capacity and industries it has long exploited.
When French troops were kicked out of neighboring Mali in 2022 after that country was taken over by militants in a coup, most of those troops were relocated to neighboring Niger, one of the last remaining Sahelian states sympathetic to Western interests. (Niger is the fourth state in the region to undergo a coup in the last few years.)
The US standpoint. Since 9/11, defeating Islamic terrorism has been a cornerstone of US foreign policy. The US has aided French missions in West Africa for the past decade, both to prop up a key ally and also to clamp down on al-Qaida-linked groups and the Islamic State, which have metastasized throughout the region. Still, Washington has mostly trained and bolstered local forces.
What’s more, some observers have expressed fear that these terror groups could join forces with other nefarious actors – like pirates! – to wreak havoc on the high seas and obstruct economic deliveries to the region, which could impact global supply routes.
To be sure, US national security officials have said that terror activities in the Sahel are not a direct threat to the US, but they are a threat to US partners and geopolitical interests – particularly as Russia and China look to expand their influence throughout Africa, the world's fastest-growing continent.
What Russia wants. Russia has long been trying to expand its footprint in Africa in general – and in the resource-rich Sahel in particular.
With the Kremlin’s backing, the Wagner Group, a private army with close ties to Moscow, got its first big bite at the apple when, in 2018, its mercenaries were invited to the Central African Republic by embattled President Faustin-Archange Touadéra to help stave off local insurgents. In exchange for protecting Touadéra, the group gained access to lucrative gold and diamond mines. Wagner recently played a key role in “keeping the peace” when CAR held a referendum abolishing presidential term limits.
Today, Wagner has a footprint in Mali, Libya, and Mozambique, and recently said it sent 1,500 mercenaries to Africa, though it’s unclear where they were sent.
Meanwhile, as one of the world’s largest uranium producers, Niger is a hot commodity, and there are reports that Wagner is already talking to the junta to see how it can be of service. Indeed, for Russia, these relationships with West African despots bolster diplomatic and economic relations while also helping to fuel anti-Western sentiment throughout the region – a win-win.
What comes next? For jihadists hoping to capitalize on the deteriorating economic and security situation, the coup might prove to be a handy recruiting tool.
What’s more, it’s hard to imagine that ECOWAS will intervene militarily given that the junta have vowed to kill the man they are hoping to save. For now, it seems like Niger could very well be set to join the ranks of other coup-plagued Sahelian states facing isolation and economic ruin as a result of ECOWAS and Western sanctions.General Abdourahmane Tiani
Will African states use force in Niger?
The clock is ticking down to a deadline for junta leaders in Niger to reinstate the democratically elected president ousted last week in a coup.
A group of West African states known as ECOWAS and led by Nigeria said that it would be willing to intervene – including militarily – if the junta doesn’t reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum, who is now under house arrest. Bazoum was elected in 2021 in the country’s first democratic polls.
But coup leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani has so far dismissed the threat, calling on supporters to be ready to defend their cause.
ECOWAS, meanwhile, has imposed sanctions on Niger, a landlocked country and one of the poorest in the world. And on Thursday, Nigeria – which provides 70% of Niger’s electricity needs – upped the ante by cutting the country’s power supply.
Indeed, Niger is an important geopolitical ally for the West, with France and the US using it as a base from which to launch their counterterror operations in the Sahel region.
However, Mali and Burkina Faso – two other Sahelian states that have experienced coups in recent years and cultivated closer ties with the Kremlin over the West – say that any attack on Niger will be deemed an attack on them all.
As the deadline looms this Sunday, we’re watching to see how far Niger’s neighbors are really willing to go to oust the junta. Intervention of any kind could again bring bloodshed to a region long plagued by violence.