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Members of a military council that staged a coup in Niger attend a rally at a stadium in Niamey, Niger.
Is West Africa headed for war?
Almost two weeks after a military junta seized power in the West African state of Niger, the situation is becoming increasingly unstable, and hopes are fading fast that constitutional order can be restored.
The latest. On Thursday, members of ECOWAS, a West African bloc of 15 nations currently led by Nigeria, announced that they had standby forces in place ready to intervene militarily to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, who became Niger’s first democratically elected leader in 2021.
In response, junta militants, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, said they would kill Bazoum, who’s currently under arrest, if ECOWAS dares to intervene.
Even before that, there were broad fears for the safety of Bazoum, and his family, who reportedly have scarce access to food, water, and electricity.
What’s more, in a sign that the junta has no intention of backing down, Tchiani announced that he is now the official head of state, tapping a new cabinet, made up of both civilian and junta representatives – though few people believe the noncombatants will have much sway.
But West African states aren’t the only ones deeply invested in Niger’s fate. Outsiders – like France and the US, as well as Russia – are keeping close tabs on the deepening disaster.
Why is this landlocked country of 25 million caught in the crosshairs of geopolitical tug-of-war?
The French Connection. Many countries in the Sahel are former French colonies, and so Paris, for its part, sees the unraveling of the region as an indictment of its colonialist past. Since granting these states independence, France has been invested in state-building programs aimed, in theory, at rebuilding capacity and industries it has long exploited.
When French troops were kicked out of neighboring Mali in 2022 after that country was taken over by militants in a coup, most of those troops were relocated to neighboring Niger, one of the last remaining Sahelian states sympathetic to Western interests. (Niger is the fourth state in the region to undergo a coup in the last few years.)
The US standpoint. Since 9/11, defeating Islamic terrorism has been a cornerstone of US foreign policy. The US has aided French missions in West Africa for the past decade, both to prop up a key ally and also to clamp down on al-Qaida-linked groups and the Islamic State, which have metastasized throughout the region. Still, Washington has mostly trained and bolstered local forces.
What’s more, some observers have expressed fear that these terror groups could join forces with other nefarious actors – like pirates! – to wreak havoc on the high seas and obstruct economic deliveries to the region, which could impact global supply routes.
To be sure, US national security officials have said that terror activities in the Sahel are not a direct threat to the US, but they are a threat to US partners and geopolitical interests – particularly as Russia and China look to expand their influence throughout Africa, the world's fastest-growing continent.
What Russia wants. Russia has long been trying to expand its footprint in Africa in general – and in the resource-rich Sahel in particular.
With the Kremlin’s backing, the Wagner Group, a private army with close ties to Moscow, got its first big bite at the apple when, in 2018, its mercenaries were invited to the Central African Republic by embattled President Faustin-Archange Touadéra to help stave off local insurgents. In exchange for protecting Touadéra, the group gained access to lucrative gold and diamond mines. Wagner recently played a key role in “keeping the peace” when CAR held a referendum abolishing presidential term limits.
Today, Wagner has a footprint in Mali, Libya, and Mozambique, and recently said it sent 1,500 mercenaries to Africa, though it’s unclear where they were sent.
Meanwhile, as one of the world’s largest uranium producers, Niger is a hot commodity, and there are reports that Wagner is already talking to the junta to see how it can be of service. Indeed, for Russia, these relationships with West African despots bolster diplomatic and economic relations while also helping to fuel anti-Western sentiment throughout the region – a win-win.
What comes next? For jihadists hoping to capitalize on the deteriorating economic and security situation, the coup might prove to be a handy recruiting tool.
What’s more, it’s hard to imagine that ECOWAS will intervene militarily given that the junta have vowed to kill the man they are hoping to save. For now, it seems like Niger could very well be set to join the ranks of other coup-plagued Sahelian states facing isolation and economic ruin as a result of ECOWAS and Western sanctions.What We’re Watching: Ardern's shock exit, sights on Crimea, Bibi’s budding crisis, US debt ceiling chaos
New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern throws in the towel
In a shock announcement on Thursday, New Zealand’s PM Jacinda Ardern said she no longer has “enough in the tank” to continue in the top job and will step down on Feb. 7. Ardern, a darling of the center-left who in 2017 became the world’s youngest female head of government, led the nation of 5 million through a host of challenges in recent years, including the horrific massacre at two Christchurch mosques, the pandemic, and a volcanic eruption on Whakaari/White Island that killed 22 people. Like much of the developed world, New Zealand is currently in the throes of an inflationary crisis that’s forced the central bank to aggressively raise interest rates. What’s more, as the cost of living crunch hurts ordinary New Zealanders, Ardern’s Labour Party is falling behind the center-right National Party in the polls ahead of the next general election in Oct. 2023. It’s unclear who will replace her, but Ardern’s deputy, Grant Robertson, already said he does not want the gig. In a rare act of political civility – and yet another reason why we should all move to New Zealand – Ardern’s rival, Christopher Luxon, head of the National Party, thanked Ardern for her service and for giving her all to a "demanding job."Could Crimea be key to Ukraine’s victory?
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday asked his Western friends to quickly deliver tanks and air defenses. That’s precisely what European leaders plan to discuss on Friday in Germany with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, just as the US is reportedly preparing to unveil its biggest-ever Ukraine aid package. But an even bolder move may be afoot. With the one-year anniversary of the invasion (Feb. 24) approaching, Washington is reportedly considering whether to help Kyiv target the Crimean Peninsula. Since the war began, President Joe Biden has refused to give Ukraine weapons that could target Russian forces on the peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014, which is now used by Russians to launch attacks against Ukraine. Biden’s team now seems to believe that Vladimir Putin’s nuclear leverage has been overplayed and that showing muscle in Crimea could help turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor. However, for Alex Brideau, Eurasia Group’s top Russia analyst, “it is not clear that this debate in Washington about Crimea is fully settled.” And such an escalation could be dangerous. “Major setbacks in Crimea would be far more important to Putin than the recent boost in weaponry the Ukrainians have received from NATO,” he says.
Israel’s impending constitutional crisis
In a bombshell decision on Wednesday, Israel’s High Court of Justice ruled 10-1 that Aryeh Deri – head of the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party and a key ally of PM Benjamin Netanyahu – is ineligible to hold a senior cabinet post due to a previous criminal conviction. (In Jan. 2022, Deri received a suspended sentence on tax fraud charges on the condition that he would not return to political life – or the case would need to be reheard.) The court's decision mandates that Netanyahu replace Deri, who last month was sworn in to head the interior and health ministries. In line with the ruling, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara demanded on Thursday that Netanyahu fire him from the cabinet. But members of the Shas Party have threatened to pull support for Netanyahu’s wobbly government if the PM fires their boss. What’s more, there’s widespread concern that the government, which has already proposed a slate of rules gutting the judiciary’s independence, might try to expedite these reforms – including enforcing a new law that would invalidate the High Court’s jurisdiction to rule on this matter. Not wanting to risk the collapse of his government, which includes a ragtag group of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties, Netanyahu appears to be backing Deri (for now). Yet after 80,000 Israelis protested against the judicial reforms last week, the seasoned politician knows he runs the risk of a full-blown constitutional crisis and mass social unrest.
Can Washington keep paying its bills?
A deal to raise America’s debt ceiling remains elusive as the US is set to hit its borrowing cap on Thursday, setting the stage for a protracted standoff over spending between the Biden administration and Congress. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Congress she would be forced to deploy “extraordinary measures” in order to keep paying the country’s bills and avoid its first-ever default. But she also warned that it’s unclear how long these measures would stave off disaster. America’s maximum spending limit, which has been raised over 100 times since World War II, is currently $31.4 trillion, over 120% of US GDP. Republicans, meanwhile, are demanding that any increase be accompanied by limitations on spending, while Democrats are refusing to negotiate concessions. A third of US debt is currently held abroad, and a default would undermine US government-backed securities, creating unprecedented uncertainty in the world economy. If lawmakers fail to raise the ceiling, we’ll be watching to see whether they employ former House Speaker John Boehner’s approach to “suspend” the debt limit to another date, which would allow Republicans to claim success and keep the government afloat.Viewpoint: Is China the only reason the US cares about Africa?
Heads of state and/or government from 49 African countries are currently breaking bread at the US-Africa Leaders Summit at the White House. It’s only the second such summit in history, the last one hosted by President Obama in 2014.
It’s no secret that many African nations have long felt jilted by Uncle Sam. But the Biden administration is trying to cast the conference as a reset in US relations with the world’s fastest-growing continent, announcing a $55 billion investment in Africa over the next three years and a presidential visit next year.
Still, some African experts are skeptical that Washington’s approach to Africa is really changing. To them, it can often seem that Washington is more focused on keeping Beijing – which in recent years has outpaced the US in foreign direct investment to Africa – away from the continent than on creating new opportunities for growth independent of China’s activities there.
To make sense of the Biden administration’s Africa policy, we had a chat with Amaka Anku, Eurasia Group’s lead Africa analyst.
GZERO: A White House official said this week that the US is “the partner of choice” for African states – which was broadly considered to be a dig at China. How is this sort of thing perceived by African leaders?
I don't think it's particularly controversial. I mean, he's a US official – what else is he going to say?
What's more controversial is when they go after China directly and say “the Chinese are using a debt trap” – rhetoric that we saw from former President Trump. A lot of African policy makers really chafed at that. It was very paternalistic. It was very much like “hey, you guys, you must be so stupid” for entering into this sort of arrangement with the Chinese.
Biden hasn’t really done that. His rhetoric has been all great and pretty, but it’s … hollow. So the problem isn't really what they're saying. It's what they're not doing. The Biden administration is saying all the right things but they’re not really doing things differently.
Ok, so what are Africa’s biggest investment needs right now?
Infrastructure in all of its forms. China has put a lot of money into transport infrastructure – roads and rails – which has been very helpful in terms of connectivity and economic growth.
Why isn’t the US government giving more money to Africa then?
Well, it's not important enough. It’s just not a priority. And that’s why a lot of the rhetoric sounds hollow.
But it's not just about the government, because there are two levels to this relationship. There's the government – and China has done well on this front – but it’s also about relationships in the private sector, and the US is substantially a private sector led economy. If the American private sector doesn’t see Africa in terms of economic opportunity then it’s not going to put its money there.
Has Biden’s approach to engaging Africa differed from his predecessors?
Every time the US wants to talk about Africa they always start with value promotion. It’s always about open and liberal societies. But this misses the point. The biggest constraint on mature, competitive, electoral party politics across Africa today is lack of state capacity and low economic outcomes.
So if you look at Biden’s sub-Saharan Africa strategy, the first points are about open and liberal societies, and democratic governance – and then eventually you get to post-pandemic development. That’s where you should start!
Government officials like to bring up “democratic backsliding” because there was a coup in places like Mali or Burkina Faso. But those coups happened because those states could not guarantee security for their citizens. It's not because people want authoritarianism.
What has China’s Africa policy been like?
China doesn't do value promotion. China will come to an African state and say “what do you want?” and then will help them finance it. There are also problems with this approach.
Do African governments feel that they are being used as pawns in the greater China-US rivalry?
African countries don’t feel like Washington is generally interested in the region beyond its China strategy. Biden is trying to pivot away from that, saying his strategy is solely about the relationship with Africa. But there’s still a broad feeling that the US only cares about projecting its values and influence.
To be fair, every country’s foreign policy is about projecting values and interests, but it’s about how you do it. And the question for Biden is: Do you think African economic transformation supports that goal? For example, can the US get ahead in its battle with China by having new export markets in Africa? Or is it just going to be about countering Chinese influence here?
So you still think it's the latter?
Yeah, right now it still feels rhetorical. I think they have a lot of work to do to show if it's not.
Biden's Africa Summit won't gain influence for US without investment
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does Biden hope to achieve from his Africa summit?
Dozens of African leaders in Washington DC, potentially the most stillborn summit the Americans have hosted since the Summit of the Americas, Latin America, in LA months ago, because the United States doesn't have much of a strategy. Certainly want to have more influence given how much the Chinese have been economically locking up so much of the political orientation of these countries. But that means money, and the Americans, this is at the end of the day not the top priority, not even close for the United States, given GDP and given role in the world. So I suspect it's going to be a lot of happy talk. There'll be some political alignment, but it's not going to be a lot of influence.
Why did Putin cancel his annual press conference?
Well, if you were Putin, wouldn't you cancel your annual press conference? I mean, look, they are generally friendlies, and he does control the media, and if you ask something really sharp, that can be it for you and your family. But he doesn't even want the hint of something that may not be scripted. He's been talking about and meeting with, for example, some of the families of the soldiers that are over there, some that have sacrificed, of course, an awful lot, but they've been very carefully vetted. He doesn't want to talk to anyone who's going to be in any way critical, and that's kind of what this annual press conference is like, usually hours long, very voluble. Putin who likes to opine on any topic that is not what you'd be seeing this year, and as a consequence, he's canceling it. It's clearly not a health reason, he's been doing a lot of other public meetings and traveling.
SBF is busted. That's right. At some point he's probably going to end up in jail. What does this mean for crypto exchanges around the world?
Well, it means less investor-friendly regulation for these exchanges. Remember, SBF was giving massive amounts of money to political figures in the United States to ensure that he could capture the regulatory process. That money gone up in smoke, probably have to give it back. And even if they don't, he's not going to have much influence with it from The Bahamas or from prison. And what that means is that a chilling effect on others in the industry. Lots of big questions from major financial institutions as to use-cases for crypto, as opposed to the blockchain, which people are very optimistic about the underlying technology. And again, it means regulations are going to be much more government-oriented, much more citizen protection-oriented, and much less crypto exchange-oriented.
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Former US President Donald Trump
What We’re Watching: Mar-a-Lago "under siege," US pitches Africa, Italy’s left falters, Greek spy scandal
Trump claims FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago
Former US President Donald Trump said Monday that the Feds were searching his sprawling residence in Palm Beach, Florida. In a statement, Trump complained that his swanky Mar-a-Lago estate is "currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents." If his claim is true, the raid would be a big escalation in efforts by the Department of Justice to investigate the former president for trying to overturn the 2020 election result and inciting the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol building in Washington, DC that resulted in several deaths. It could also be related to a separate DOJ probe into 15 boxes of classified documents that Trump took with him to Mar-a-Lago after leaving office. Although federal law prohibits moving classified material to unauthorized locations, Trump might argue that, in his final days as president, he got to make the final call on declassifying the files. Either way, the raid — which has not yet been confirmed by the DOJ — will surely cause political ripples in the coming days: the former president and his fans will cite the search as proof that the so-called "deep state" is trying to stop him from running again in 2024, while Democrats and never-Trump Republicans likely hope that the FBI was indeed looking for evidence linked to the Jan. 6 committee hearings that could help indict Trump.
Blinken goes to Africa
The battle for Africa continues. This week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on a three-nation tour of the continent. Currently in South Africa, Blinken will soon head to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, where he’ll seek to shore up support for the West’s position amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Blinken’s tour comes just weeks after his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, wrapped up a multination African tour focused on reassuring African allies – many of whom rely on Russian arms exports – of Moscow’s commitment to alleviating the global food crisis. Indeed, US-South Africa relations have been somewhat rocky in recent years, in part due to former President Donald Trump reneged on Washington’s commitment to helping developing countries meet their climate goals. In recent years, China became Pretoria’s largest trade partner, something else Washington is keen to address. Blinken is also expected to try and bolster regional efforts to enforce a truce between the DRC and Rwanda amid ongoing clashes on the border. The US wants to present itself as a more reliable and valuable partner at a time when both Russia and China have made significant inroads throughout the continent. The problem? Many African states don't want to have to choose.
Italy’s left in turmoil
Italy’s far-right was dealt another boon after a centrist party pulled its support for its rival left-wing coalition. Carlo Calenda, leader of the Azione (Action) Party and Italy’s former permanent representative to the EU, ditched the left-leaning bloc led by the Democratic Party after its leader, Enrico Letta, signed a parallel deal with the Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde parties (two anti-establishment leftist groups) in a bid to build a bulwark against the right ahead of general elections on September 25. The far-right – made up of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy Party, Matteo Salvini’s anti-immigrant Lega Party, and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia – would now win a combined vote share of 46%, compared with the left’s 30%, according to recent polls. Calenda said he refused to run with the two parties that had long sought to destabilize outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government, leading to his eventual resignation last month. (Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde notably both voted against Finland and Sweden joining NATO.) If the far-right prevails next month as expected, it could stonewall efforts to make the structural reforms needed to unlock billions of euros in pandemic relief that Italy’s inflation-hit economy desperately needs.