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What the Trump trial circus is missing
On the first day of the first criminal trial of a former US president, I couldn’t resist. The courthouse is 15 minutes from my desk here in New York, so I jumped on the 6 Train and headed out to the scrum of protesters, counterprotesters, journalists, police, and other gawkers in Lafayette Park outside the courthouse.
There was lots – lots – of yelling. Just as I arrived, a guy in a “Gays for Trump, You got a problem with that, Bitch!” T-shirt was at the center of a smartphone scrum screaming at a woman holding a “Trump is the Definition of Depravity” sign that she was a “pedophile.”
Before long, content creators from both sides of the national divide were on the scene, livestreaming and shouting at each other about Hunter Biden, about inflation, about child labor, about immigration. Even Triumph the Comic Insult Dog barked into the mix, asking one of several Proud Boys stalking the scene in wraparound shades: “If Trump is convicted, do you think he’ll be sentenced to four years … in the White House?”
The only people not screaming, as I recall, were four elderly Chinese-American ladies in huge sunglasses, sitting on a bench under a leafless sweetgum tree, holding hand-painted signs that read: “Kangaroo Court, Banana Republic.”
It was, in all, the usual performative mayhem about the usual subjects. But the one thing that almost no one was actually yelling about was the thing that was going on inside the building 100 feet away: the trial itself.
All that circus, and hardly a word about the elephant in the ring.
But isn’t that how a lot of us talk about Trump’s trials and titillations these days? We argue about the politics rather than look at the merits. And that’s a bad thing.
For Trump, the political cage matches keep the focus right where he wants it: on the narrative that he, as a popular threat to a corrupt establishment, is the victim of a political witch hunt. That the ruling party is using the justice system to silence a political rival. That those ladies with the big sunglasses under the sweetgum tree are right.
On the other side, people talk about the long-coming legal downfall of a demagogue seen as a threat to the Republic itself. The Capone of politics nabbed on his own kind 0f tax rap.
“People know what verdict they want in this case,” says Richard Klein, a professor of law at Touro Law School and a longtime trial criminal defense lawyer. “But few people are focusing on DA Bragg’s case against Trump. They're focusing on all the noise around it.”
To review, briefly. Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg alleges that Trump falsified business records to conceal a payment that was made, in the fall of 2016, to a porn star who says she and Trump had a fling.
“Hush money” is bad, but that’s not actually what the trial is about. Paying someone to keep quiet isn’t necessarily a crime, and fiddling with business records in New York isn’t a felony.
Bragg’s case elevates the charges by arguing that this book-cooking was done with the intention of committing other felonious infractions – including, it seems, a conspiracy to influence the outcome of the 2016 election and commit tax fraud.
To prove this intent, Bragg will bring various witnesses, including Trump’s former lawyer and fixer-in-chief Michael Cohen, who made the payments, as well their recipient, the actress known as “Stormy Daniels.”
Legal scholars like Klein say Bragg’s approach is something of a high-wire act. He is linking dozens of lower-level crimes – some of which Trump appears to have admitted publicly – to harder-to-prove felonious ones, and then asking a jury to decide that Trump did all of this to sway an upcoming election rather than, say, simply to save his marriage or protect his kids from scandal.
The key witnesses, moreover, aren’t exactly folks with an unblemished reputation for truthtelling. Cohen has already admitted to lying under oath previously.
How much does this matter? If Bragg fails to convince the jury, Trump will be vindicated – look, he’ll say, these kangaroo court prosecutors came at me and 12 very good people of New York saw through it. This will color the politics of the other three cases he faces.
If Trump is convicted, of course, it may not move the needle for the 35% of “you got a problem with that bitch!”Americans who are unwaveringly fanatically loyal to him.
But about half of Americans say if Trump is convicted he should not be president again. That includes 14% of Republicans and, perhaps more importantly, a third of independents who say a guilty verdict would sway their vote. In a tight election – and this one will be tight – that could certainly be the difference.
As I went to file this, news broke that the jury has been set for the trial. And so we’re off. I may not be able to resist heading down to Lafayette square for some good mayhem again in the coming weeks – but as a society it’s a mistake to let that political circus distract us from the real drama in the courtroom itself.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower, after his indictment by a Manhattan grand jury following a probe into hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels, in New York City, U.S April 3, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Trump’s day in court, Turkey stuffing Sweden, Egypt buddying up
Trump’s arraignment
Donald Trump has a busy day ahead of him Tuesday. He returned to the Big Apple Monday night and, after getting some shut-eye in Trump Tower, the former president will head to the Manhattan courthouse on Tuesday for his indictment. After his court appearance and a quick photo-op, he’ll jet back to Mar-a-Lago before an evening news conference.
Sound like an orchestrated plan? That’s because Trump’s team wants to capitalize on the publicity blitz around his arrest to bolster his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. There’s reason to believe this is working: Since the news of his indictment dropped, his campaign claims to have raised $7 million, and his polling numbers have soared above other Republican candidates.
On March 30, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg brought the results of his investigation before a Manhattan grand jury, which voted to indict the former president. Trump is expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday.
While the charges against him have not been revealed, they likely involve Trump's reimbursement to his former attorney and “fixer,” Michael Cohen, who paid adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in exchange for her silence ahead of the 2016 election. The Trump Organization then filed Cohen’s $420,000 reimbursement and bonus as a “legal expense.”
Falsifying business records is only a misdemeanor in New York, but if it is done with the intent to commit or cover up another crime – namely, violating campaign finance laws – then Trump could be looking at a Class E felony and a minimum of one year in prison.
Trump will be the first former US president to be indicted on criminal charges. But whether his indictment will push the GOP to jump ship in favor of another candidate, or what it means for the campaign if they don’t, remains unclear.
Turkey keeps stuffing Sweden — why?
On Tuesday, Finland finally joins NATO, lengthening the alliance’s border with Russia by 800 miles and adding to its ranks some of the world’s most fearsome snow snipers. Good work, Mr. Putin!
But remember who isn’t joining the club? Sweden, whose accession bid remains blocked by NATO member Turkey, who says Stockholm still hasn’t done enough to quash Kurdish terrorist groups that are at war with the Turkish government. Note that Turkey dropped similar objections about Finland last week but is still squeezing Sweden.
Why? For one thing, Turkey’s pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a very tough election in May, and flexing against the West like this can stoke nationalist passions in his favor. He may also seek concessions from his Western partners elsewhere, say, on Washington’s refusal to sell him state-of-the-art fighter jets, or its support for Kurdish militias in Syria.
For years, Erdoğan has played a shrewd game – as a NATO member but friend to Putin; a European partner on the migrant crisis but at a price. By greenlighting Finland while holding back on Sweden, he’s showing he’s willing to be reasonable but that he expects his pound of flesh too. Will it work?
A battered Egypt searches for friends
Times are tough – economically speaking – in Egypt, and President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi is looking to mend and shore up relations across the region. On Monday, el-Sissi traveled to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, the country’s de facto leader.
El-Sissi's visit comes as the economy of import-reliant Egypt is reeling as a result of economic mismanagement and Russia’s war in Ukraine. (Egypt has been forced to devalue its currency three times over the past year.)
While Riyadh has long doled out funds to help keep cash-strapped Egypt afloat, it recently said that it will no longer hand out blank checks and that Cairo should implement reforms to receive aid. El-Sissi likely wants to convince MBS that he’s already making some changes as part of a deal with the International Monetary Fund.
Another big topic on the agenda? Reintegrating Syria, deemed a pariah by the West, into the Arab League. This comes just days after Egypt and Syria held high-level talks for the first time in a decade as Cairo looks to reestablish diplomatic ties with Bashar al-Assad. Indeed, Egypt is just the latest Arab country to welcome Syria back in from the cold, with reports that el-Sissi hopes to eventually win lucrative contracts to help rebuild the war-torn country.
Trump's indictment is problematic
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and at least a few comments from me on the Trump indictment. You didn't hear anything from me about this a couple weeks ago. Of course, former President Trump had announced that he was going to get arrested a week ago Tuesday and when I heard that, I thought that that one thing that guaranteed was that he was not going to be arrested a week ago Tuesday, so he didn't really need to talk about it. But then after that passed and nothing happened, he said, "I'm not going to get arrested. They don't have a case. They've thrown away. These guys are idiots." And then I started to get worried. I'm thinking, well, if he's saying it's not going to happen, that means may well. And of course that is where we now are, that for the first time in American history though, this happens all over the world in many other countries, but the US had been exceptional in this regard.
No US president, sitting or former, had been indicted. Can't say that anymore. Now, former President Trump has indeed been indicted and he will surrender and he will show up in New York and he will be fingerprinted and get his mugshot and all of those things that will both excite and infuriate to various degrees, people across the United States.
I will say, first of all, that you should look at the polls to start. What do people in the United States think about this and that should be a cause for concern. Recent, I think it's Quinnipiac Poll showing that well over 90% of Republicans believe that this decision to indict is political, is not on the basis of fair application of rule of law. 70% of Independents believe that. 30% of Democrats believe that. So, it's interesting. This is not just a matter of political divide. It's also that for those that focus on all of the various cases that are being brought, that have been brought against Trump. The matter of Stormy Daniels, this effort to break campaign finance rules and to cover up an affair in the run up to the election, and certainly, I mean, lots and lots of people believe that the case must be solid. In other words, the evidence against him, to be able to proceed with an indictment. But that doesn't mean that they take it seriously. In other words, if this were another political figure, would you bring up this case? Would you indict? Would you consider it a felony? And there, the witch hunt that Trump is talking about, is something that is broadly aligned with by Americans, whether or not they like Trump.
And of course, one of the most important points there is the unifying factor that this has for Trump among Republicans themselves. Republicans, many of whom had been trying to differentiate, distinguish themselves, even criticize the former president, all coming right back and saying, "This is a travesty. It's a breach of justice. How dare they go after Trump in this way?" People, like Mike Pence, for example, who certainly seems to be running for president. People like Governor Ron DeSantis. People like Mike Pompeo. I mean, almost everybody out there was talking to Chris Christie the other day who is very, very critical of former President Trump, but also believes that this is a politicized case and that's a challenge. I think that's a challenge in terms of really dampening any potential for momentum for other erstwhile candidates against Trump on the GOP side.
Trump can still lose the nomination. But if you ask me today, is he more likely to get the nomination than he was yesterday? And he's already well ahead in name recognition and polls across the board of every other candidate, the answer is yeah. You'd probably bet that Trump is going to.
Now, a lot of people out there that can't stand Trump say, "Well, that's great because he's going to be the weaker candidate among Republicans against Biden, and we just want Biden to win."
My response, no matter who you support for the upcoming election, is that the potential for Trump to become president if he gets nomination is real, and he's going to be running against an 82-year-old Biden. And I think that for the safety and stability of the country, as well as the way that the United States is perceived by others across the world, Trump getting the nomination is a assertively a problematic and damaging thing. Any other Republican would be a better and more stabilizing outcome. So, I absolutely think that this is unbalanced problematic.
Now, beyond all of that, the fact that Trump has been indicted means that everyone is going to be talking about him pretty much nonstop over, when we talk about domestic politics, going forward. It really is kind of the beginning of another period of massive divisiveness and abnormality after many were trying to focus more on policy and governance for the last year, year and a half.
I think that also means that other countries around the world will now take much more seriously the possibility that this wasn't just an aberration 2016 to 2020 the United States, but that indeed there's something much deeper and more systematic afoot, which means more hedging behavior for other countries around the world, allies around the world, and that's going to make Biden's job more difficult in terms of foreign policy.
Now, we're talking about this in isolation. We don't even know exactly what these charges are yet, though I don't think that's going to make much of a difference in terms of the voting public in the United States when it comes up. I do think what will make more of a difference is what happens with other cases that are much more significant in their seriousness and their impact in terms of Trump on US democracy.
In particular, the case in Georgia where you have on tape the fact that he wanted Republicans on the ground to find him votes to be able to overturn the outcome. Also, more broadly, the effort by the special investigator in the Department of Justice, around the events of January 6th, as well as to a lesser degree, in terms of impact and importance handling of classified materials.
So, this is by far the weakest, the least serious piece of the cases that are being brought against him. It makes it much easier for him to talk about a witch hunt. It aligns the GOP with him. But of course, it doesn't mean he's out of legal trouble on the other cases. But to the extent that Trump's entire political ascent has been about grievance politics, has been about us versus them, and tribalization of the US political space, not to mention capturing maximum audience attention for everything he does. I actually think perversely, very perversely, that this indictment on the Stormy Daniels case plays to his benefit and not to his disadvantage.
That's where we are politically in the United States right now and that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
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