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Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower, after his indictment by a Manhattan grand jury following a probe into hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels, in New York City, U.S April 3, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Trump’s day in court, Turkey stuffing Sweden, Egypt buddying up
Trump’s arraignment
Donald Trump has a busy day ahead of him Tuesday. He returned to the Big Apple Monday night and, after getting some shut-eye in Trump Tower, the former president will head to the Manhattan courthouse on Tuesday for his indictment. After his court appearance and a quick photo-op, he’ll jet back to Mar-a-Lago before an evening news conference.
Sound like an orchestrated plan? That’s because Trump’s team wants to capitalize on the publicity blitz around his arrest to bolster his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. There’s reason to believe this is working: Since the news of his indictment dropped, his campaign claims to have raised $7 million, and his polling numbers have soared above other Republican candidates.
On March 30, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg brought the results of his investigation before a Manhattan grand jury, which voted to indict the former president. Trump is expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday.
While the charges against him have not been revealed, they likely involve Trump's reimbursement to his former attorney and “fixer,” Michael Cohen, who paid adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in exchange for her silence ahead of the 2016 election. The Trump Organization then filed Cohen’s $420,000 reimbursement and bonus as a “legal expense.”
Falsifying business records is only a misdemeanor in New York, but if it is done with the intent to commit or cover up another crime – namely, violating campaign finance laws – then Trump could be looking at a Class E felony and a minimum of one year in prison.
Trump will be the first former US president to be indicted on criminal charges. But whether his indictment will push the GOP to jump ship in favor of another candidate, or what it means for the campaign if they don’t, remains unclear.
Turkey keeps stuffing Sweden — why?
On Tuesday, Finland finally joins NATO, lengthening the alliance’s border with Russia by 800 miles and adding to its ranks some of the world’s most fearsome snow snipers. Good work, Mr. Putin!
But remember who isn’t joining the club? Sweden, whose accession bid remains blocked by NATO member Turkey, who says Stockholm still hasn’t done enough to quash Kurdish terrorist groups that are at war with the Turkish government. Note that Turkey dropped similar objections about Finland last week but is still squeezing Sweden.
Why? For one thing, Turkey’s pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a very tough election in May, and flexing against the West like this can stoke nationalist passions in his favor. He may also seek concessions from his Western partners elsewhere, say, on Washington’s refusal to sell him state-of-the-art fighter jets, or its support for Kurdish militias in Syria.
For years, Erdoğan has played a shrewd game – as a NATO member but friend to Putin; a European partner on the migrant crisis but at a price. By greenlighting Finland while holding back on Sweden, he’s showing he’s willing to be reasonable but that he expects his pound of flesh too. Will it work?
A battered Egypt searches for friends
Times are tough – economically speaking – in Egypt, and President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi is looking to mend and shore up relations across the region. On Monday, el-Sissi traveled to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, the country’s de facto leader.
El-Sissi's visit comes as the economy of import-reliant Egypt is reeling as a result of economic mismanagement and Russia’s war in Ukraine. (Egypt has been forced to devalue its currency three times over the past year.)
While Riyadh has long doled out funds to help keep cash-strapped Egypt afloat, it recently said that it will no longer hand out blank checks and that Cairo should implement reforms to receive aid. El-Sissi likely wants to convince MBS that he’s already making some changes as part of a deal with the International Monetary Fund.
Another big topic on the agenda? Reintegrating Syria, deemed a pariah by the West, into the Arab League. This comes just days after Egypt and Syria held high-level talks for the first time in a decade as Cairo looks to reestablish diplomatic ties with Bashar al-Assad. Indeed, Egypt is just the latest Arab country to welcome Syria back in from the cold, with reports that el-Sissi hopes to eventually win lucrative contracts to help rebuild the war-torn country.
Swedish NATO bid caught in Erdoğan reelection effort
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Stockholm, Sweden.
How is the process of accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO going?
Well, it's green light for Finland. After ratification by Hungary and Turkey, they've been playing some games, but now green light. Good, excellent. Sweden, they are still holding out. I think President Erdoğan sees this as an asset in his election campaign. There have been some issues with Sweden. I think they have been sorted out, but now it's a question of the politics of Turkey. President Erdoğan, of course, faces an extremely critical election May 14, first round his entire regime's up for grab, and he's holding Sweden hostage in a way that is not entirely good for the security of Europe.
What’s happening in the Mediterranean with refugees?
Well, that's a worrying situation. There have been three times as many refugees, migrants arriving across the Mediterranean to Italy the first few months of this year as last year. There's talk of 900,000 coming this year on planes and trains. There's a very disturbing and difficult situation in Tunisia, both in economic and political terms. Many are coming from Tunisia, but many are coming through Tunisia as well. Clearly it's an unsustainable situation. Can things be done in order to get things better on shape in Turkey? Can there be more solidarity in the European Union helping Italy? These are important question that needs answers.
- Finland’s next step ›
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Finland's PM Sanna Marin at news conference in Stockholm, Sweden, February 2, 2023.
Finland’s next step
This is a big moment for Finland. For decades, its leaders tried to safeguard its security by remaining officially neutral in conflicts between giant neighbor Russia and the West. A clear majority of Finns considered that the more prudent choice. Since the end of the Cold War, Finland has drawn closer to NATO but remained outside the alliance to avoid provoking the Kremlin.
Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and Finnish minds quickly changed. Polls say nearly 80% of Finns support full NATO membership, and the alliance is eager to welcome a valuable new partner.
Finland’s application cleared its one remaining hurdle on Thursday as lawmakers in Turkey, the last NATO member needed to make it official, approved Finland’s bid. Nothing left now but paperwork.
And this Sunday, voters in Finland will choose the party and prime minister who will lead the nation in this historic step. At stake are all 200 seats in Finland’s parliament, which are now divided among nine different parties.
Current Prime Minister Sanna Marin hopes her center-left Social Democrats will win enough seats to lead the next government, allowing her to finish the NATO process she pushed into motion last year. Polls suggest the race will be close because the center-right National Coalition Party and the far-right Finns Party both appear strong.
If the election becomes a referendum on personal attitudes toward Marin, her party has a good shot. A recent poll shows that nearly two-thirds of Finnish voters say she’s done a solid job leading the country through the pandemic and the crisis created by Russia’s war.
Marin’s party, however, is less popular than its leader, and the nativist Finns Party has seen its popularity surge. Led by Riikka Purra, another of the country’s rising female politicians, the Finns are known mainly for their pledge to end all migration into Finland from outside the European Union. The center-right National Coalition is led by Petteri Orpo, the only man to lead one of the country’s leading parties.
Because it’s so popular in Finland, NATO membership has figured only indirectly in the election campaign. Orpo says it’s irresponsible for Marin to mull the provision of fighter jets to Ukraine, for example. Instead, voter perceptions of Finland’s high-and-rising cost of living, the importance of the government balancing its books, and the future of immigration policy will decide which party is best positioned to lead a coalition government. (No individual party is likely to win more than 20-25% of seats. Post-election bargaining over partnerships will take time.)
But pocketbook issues aside, Finland’s next prime minister will lead a NATO country with a Russian border that’s as long (more than 800 miles) as those of all other NATO countries put together. Moscow is very likely to reinforce its military presence – and make occasional mischief – along that long frontier.
Across the line, Finland has the largest and best-equipped artillery forces in Western Europe, according to the Wilson Center, a US think tank, as well as a conscription system that could mobilize 280,000 soldiers with hundreds of thousands more in reserve. This is a force NATO is glad to welcome.
In short, on Sunday, Finnish voters may focus mainly on their economic future, but the government they elect will face security choices and risks that no Finnish prime minister has ever faced.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses via video link the 26th Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Lagonisi, Greece.
What We're Watching: Ukraine tackles corruption, Nordics-Turkey NATO drama
Ukraine sacks officials over graft
Just days after the Ukrainian defense ministry called reports of graft in its procurement contracts “nonsense,” a deputy defense minister has been sacked to “preserve the trust” of Kyiv’s international partners. Also ousted: one of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s top deputies, a fellow known for living lavishly and speeding around in a flashy car while his countrymen sleep in trenches. The move follows reports that Ukraine’s defense ministry had overpaid for food supplies, suggesting that kickbacks were in the mix. Despite making progress in recent years, Ukraine’s government has long struggled with endemic corruption, but Kyiv is particularly concerned to allay concerns in Europe and the US, which have sent tens of billions of dollars in aid to the country since Russia’s invasion. We’re also watching to see how things play out among rank-and-file soldiers — allegations of corruption at the top during a war where troops are defending their country with homemade dune buggies is a bad bad look …
Nordics-Turkey NATO soap opera continues
Just a few months ago, we all thought that a joint bid by Finland and Sweden to join NATO was a done deal. Not anymore. On Monday night, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pulled his support for Sweden in response to the Swedish government authorizing a far-right protest outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm where a copy of the Quran was burned. What's more, now Finland seems to be getting antsy. Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto on Tuesday suggested that perhaps the Finns will go it alone — although he later walked back the comment, calling for a two-week "time-out" in the talks with Turkey. While taking a chill pill might help calm things down, it's unlikely to resolve Erdoğan’s main beef with the two Nordic countries: In exchange for NATO consent, he wants them to hand over 100+ Turkish and Kurdish dissidents and tighten immigration laws to prevent more Erdoğan critics from seeking refuge there. We don’t know how or when this saga will end, but don't count on Ankara backing down. Erdoğan will weaponize the diplomatic tussle with Sweden to turn out his nationalist base ahead of the May 14 presidential election.
Should Ukraine be offered NATO membership?
Finnish leaders know how to have a good time, which is probably why Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto recently sat down with Ian Bremmer to discuss Finland’s NATO accession.Threats from the Kremlin had kept Finland (and Sweden) from joining the alliance for 75 years. But the invasion of Ukraine changed all that. In May, Finland’s long-serving President Sauli Niinistö rang his old friend, Vladimir Putin. “It’s not me, it’s you,” Niinistö intimated to the Russian leader.
Putin reacted calmly, and those decades of threats have resulted in … zilch. Haavisto says Putin is too preoccupied with the Ukraine offensive to worry about Finland – he notes that Finns can see Russia moving its military away from their border, presumably to beef up reinforcements on the frontlines.
But that doesn’t mean joining NATO has been smooth sailing for the land of a thousand lakes. A surprise hiccup came from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has an axe to grind with the Nordics over things like their alleged support for a Kurdish group in Syria they say is linked to the PKK, which Ankara regards as a terrorist group. Erdoğan said neither Finland nor Sweden should be allowed to join NATO while harboring “terrorists.” But the three came to a tentative agreement in June to move forward with the membership process.
The Finns’ bid to join NATO was fueled by its changing security situation when the neighbor with whom Finland shares an 830-mile border suddenly brought war back to the continent. So imagine how Ukraine has felt for years … Sure, the members of NATO have now welcomed Ukraine’s bid to join. But in retrospect, should membership have been extended to Kyiv before now?
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Why Finland’s top diplomat is proud of EU's response to Russia
Finnish leaders know how to have a good time, which is probably why Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto recently sat down with GZERO’s Ian Bremmer to discuss Finland’s NATO accession, the Ukrainian bid to join, and the consideration of future membership bids.
This interview has been lightly edited for concision and clarity.
Ian Bremmer: I want to start with the issue of the year, unfortunately, which is of course Russia. They invaded on the 24th of February. Less than three months later, your country was formally invited and requested to join NATO. Surely no one thought that was imaginable before the invasion. I wonder if you can just take me through the national mentality over those three months —what happened in your country?
Pekka Haavisto: First, it’s good to mention that in our white papers since 1995, there has been mention of the NATO option – saying that in the case of security situation changes in our region, we are ready to consider NATO membership. But everybody was maybe thinking that it's almost like a dead letter in these white papers, and then suddenly in February we analyzed the situation of the Russian attack against Ukraine – very security oriented. We started to think that if this is a successful military campaign against Ukraine, what else Russia can do in its vicinity and how much does it want to control the neighboring countries? And then we came to the conclusion that now is the time to apply for NATO membership.
Then, step by step, we came to the same page with Sweden on this issue. [Domestically], almost all parties started to support NATO membership, I would say overnight. There was, of course, a lot of debate, lots of discussion, and suddenly we got started to get this rate of 80% in favor of NATO membership. When the Finnish Parliament finally voted, it was a huge landslide support for NATO membership.
IB: The Russian government, including President Putin, directly warned your country and warned the Swedes not to join and that there would be consequences, both diplomatic and military consequences, if you were to proceed. Now that was months ago, have there been any consequences?
PH: Well, almost nothing I would say. Of course, verbally, yes, the warnings are there and so forth, but I think Russia has been very busy with the war against Ukraine. And we can see actually on our border, which is 1,300-kilometer common border with Russia, that Russia is moving military troops away from that area towards Ukraine in these circumstances.
I B: And of course the reason that you decided that you wanted to join NATO is because you were concerned about your country's security all by itself. Does that make you think, in retrospect, that maybe membership should have been extended to Ukraine or no?
Pekka Haavisto: That's an interesting question. I think one of the frustrations for Ukrainians had been that NATO was not moving on this issue. NATO has not been developing maybe Ukraine's defense capacity as it should have been developed and so forth. But in retrospect, you think everybody says that "Why didn't we react in 2014 when Crimea was occupied?" And I remember very well the discussions in European Union, also our national discussions – the occupation of Crimea didn't trigger that kind of solidarity wave that the attack against the capital Kyiv triggered. Ukraine has changed and of course in Crimea, I think it was a little bit unclear how the troops maybe changed their positions or even changed their side during the 2014 occupation. And I think we have much stronger national identity of Ukraine at the moment. This is good and it's easier now to support Ukraine [and many are doing so, including, for example] the European Union's capabilities to support Ukraine. I have been positively surprised.
They invited them to join and are actually sending together military material and so forth. The European Union's on the front line now in this conflict in many, many ways, and I think I'm very proud of that European Union.
IB: So as a future NATO member, in all likelihood, do you believe that NATO membership should be on the table in the future for the Ukrainian government?
PH: Well, I think NATO enlargement should of course be there always with similar conditions for countries that fulfill the NATO criteria and so forth, and nobody would be excluded from that. Then of course, it's up to the current NATO members to decide how the enlargement process goes. We have been of course lucky that with both Sweden and Finland that all of the NATO member states are supporting our membership. Of course, some have some conditions like Turkey, so we are still dealing with those conditions.
Should Ukraine Get A NATO Invite? | GZERO Worldyoutu.be
IB: Your president said that when he met with President Erdoğan of Turkey, that there was no problem that was brought up about your country and Sweden acceding to NATO membership and then suddenly there was. Now we know that Erdoğan, from a personal disposition perspective, occasionally speaks, let's say, off script, but how has it been negotiating between your and his government over the past months? How confident are you that the hiccups have been smoothed?
PH: Also in the early contacts from my side with my colleague, Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu, who in the spring was always very easygoing and said: "Definitely no problem Finland joining," and so forth. And that was the early message from Turkey. Then in Madrid Summit, of course, we noticed that Turkey has a lot of issues, particularly on security, terrorism and so forth, accusing Sweden, Finland supporting terrorist groups and so forth. We then established this three-part arc mechanism and this three-part arc mechanism has now had its first meeting at the end of August in Helsinki. And I understand that everybody was quite happy about that meeting – it was not on the political level, but on the staff level from our ministries. The next meeting is planned for October, so we are working on those issues raised by Turkey. We are giving answers to the questions and so forth. We have more intensified exchange of information on certain risks and so forth. So I think that, at the technical level, that's working. Now it's up then to the political.
Ian Bremmer: I want to end a hopeful note. NATO today is stronger and more unified than it's been in a long time, so to the European Union, what does that mean for you as you think about the future of Finland, as you think about the future of the global order?
Pekka Haavisto: We have always said that European Union is our main organization on trade economy, but also security. Now we are adding to that our NATO membership, and we have seen very close cooperation between Washington and Brussels now on trans-Atlantic security issues and actually that gives us a lot of hope that we have a wider perspective on economy, on security and so forth when we have this good transatlantic cooperation.
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Finland “investing in security and stability” with NATO push
Kai Sauer, Finland’s Undersecretary of State for Foreign Security Policy, told GZERO Media that as Finland awaits NATO membership his nation is already contributing to the alliance.
“We are a security provider. We are investing in stability and security in our region,” Sauer said. “We are bringing a lot of capabilities to the alliance. So, it's in everybody's interest, also in Turkey's interest, that Finland and Sweden will become members.”
Sauer spoke to GZERO Media on the sidelines of the 77th UN General Assembly, where conversations about the war in Ukraine and the global crises it has sparked were front and center.
On setbacks to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, 17 goals the organization hopes to attain by 2030 as a blueprint for greater peace and equality, Sauer said he remains cautiously optimistic.
“We are still working towards 2030, and hopefully we can gain as much progress as we can, Sauer said. “But the fact that we have been thrown into a crisis in Europe, it's not helping in achieving those goals.”
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Finland’s NATO membership hopes
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has pushed long-neutral Finland into openly embracing NATO, which would not go down well in Moscow.
Still, former PM Alexander Stubb tells Ian Bremmer that "we Finns are pretty calm, cool and collected" and that the response to Vladimir Putin should be that we understand your issues, but "we are a sovereign, independent nation-state and take our own security [and] political decisions."
He believes Putin will ultimately fail at the three things he's trying to accomplish: annex Ukraine; push back NATO's borders to where during the Cold War; and prevent Finland and Sweden from joining the alliance.
What's more, Stubb points out that with his actions Putin has probably caused a permanent change in public opinion among Finns and Swedes.
"The train has left the station. Finland is moving toward full NATO membership," he says. "It's not gonna happen today, it's not gonna happen next week, but it will eventually happen."
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