We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Why Sweden and Finland joined NATO
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Hanoi, Vietnam.
Was the Swedish and Finnish decision to move into NATO, was that driven by fear of Russia attacking them?
Not really. I don't think either of our countries feel any immediate threat by Russian aggression. But what happened when Russia, Mr. Putin, to be precisely, attacked Ukraine was a fundamental upsetting of the entire European security order. And although Mr. Putin's priority at the moment, he’s very clear on that, is to get rid of Ukraine by invading and occupying all of it, you never know where he's going to stop. And this led Finland and Sweden to do the fundamental reassessment of their security policies. Giving up, in Swedish case, we've been outside of military alliances for the last 200 years or something like that.
So it was not a minor step. And that step has now been taken. Finland completed its ratification, has been a member for a couple of months. Sweden has now formally become a member after some hiccups with the ratification process. It's a major change for our two countries need to say. It is a significant strengthening of NATO. It is a significant strengthening of the security in northern Europe and I think also will facilitate a better coordination between the military alliance of NATO and the security alliance of the EU to the obvious advantage of security of Europe and the security of the West.
It's a good day.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken accepts Sweden's instruments of accession from Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson for its entry into NATO at the State Department in Washington, U.S., March 7, 2024.
Sweden finally joins the NATO party
It’s official! Sweden has formally become NATO’s 32nd member. With the addition of Sweden and Finland, Vladimir Putin now finds himself surrounded by an enlarged and powerful NATO two years after he invaded Ukraine.
Sweden has gained NATO’s protection, but it brings a lot to the table as well. One of the most advanced arms industries in the world, for one. For another, it rounds out NATO’s coverage of the Baltic Sea – or NATO’s pond, as it can now be called.
Check out our explainer here to read what NATO has gained from its newest additions.
US approves F-16s for Turkey, moving Sweden NATO membership closer
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
How are things proceeding with the ratification of the Swedish membership in NATO?
Well, it’s been some back and forth. But now Turkey has ratified and that is important. That has to do with also the agreement with the US on deliveries of F-16s and modification kits of F-16s and deliveries of F-35s to Greece. A major package has been negotiated, so that should be okay. Now, remaining with Hungary. Prime Minister Orban is a slightly unpredictable fellow, but I would guess that he can't hold off for very long. So I would hope, expect this process to be wrapped up within a couple of weeks.
What about British generals and others warning for the danger of a major war in Europe?
There have been a couple of such voices. I don’t think they signify anything that is imminent in terms of dangers, but they signify a concern. What might happen if the war between Russia, the aggression, if that continues? If we don't have sufficient support for Ukraine, if Ukraine doesn't succeed, then that could well be the beginning of a much more major war and a much more severe security challenge for all of Europe. So I think what you hear, from different generals, should be seen in that rather serious light.
Sweden's NATO membership is imminent after Turkey's approval
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week from Davos on World In :60.
With the Turkish parliament officially approving Sweden's membership of NATO, will Hungary remain the lone holdout?
I don't expect it. I think that Sweden is joining. Erdogan still has to sign. So, I mean, isn't done done done until the signatures on. But NATO is being sold very, very effectively by Vladimir Putin, continues to expand.
How will the West react to North Korea arming Russia for the war in Ukraine?
Well, the interesting thing, it's not just that North Korea is arming Russia, that Russia is helping North Korea in return, including advancing their ICBM program, which historically was a red line for the Americans. But what are they going to do about it now? I also notice the North Koreans just kind of blew up their big monument for reunification with the South Koreans. They’re saying the South Koreans are permanent enemy, that reunification is no longer an interest of theirs. You know, the North Koreans now have more room to cause trouble because the Chinese aren't the only country out there that is liking them and restraining them. The Russians provide support and they're much more of a chaos actor. It would not surprise me if we're going to see more trouble from the North Koreans in the coming months.
Is a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas likely in exchange for the release of all remaining hostages?
Well, the US would love to see that. Qatar would love to see that. The Israelis are now willing to consider deals that even a couple of weeks ago they were not. Things are not going as well for them on the ground. They don't really have a strategic endgame in Gaza or with Hamas right now. And there’s even more internal dissent within the war cabinet. I don't see Hamas, though, supporting giving away all of the hostages, which is leverage for them in return for a short-term ceasefire. They're taking a maximalist view. Israel has to pull all of their troops out if they would consider that. And the ceasefire has to be more than a couple of months. You know, functionally permanent. It does not seem at all to me that we are close to a deal. Let's put it that way.
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan is holding a press conference during NATO Summit
Turkey finally greenlights Sweden’s entry into NATO
Stockholm is finally within sight of joining NATO after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday submitted a bill to parliament approving Sweden’s membership. There is no set timeline for its passage, but a similar bill for Finland passed in 13 days.
The process had been held up over Ankara’s insistence that Sweden do more to clamp down on the Kurdistan Workers Party, whose armed wing has waged a decades-long insurgency in the eastern highlands. Stockholm promised to involve its intelligence agencies in asylum applications from Turkish Kurds, among other steps, but Ankara remained unsatisfied, dragging the process out.
It’s not clear that Sweden did anything in recent days to precipitate Erdogan’s acquiescence, but he has been facing increased exasperation from NATO allies. After all, he said he would pass on Sweden’s accession to parliament at the NATO summit in July. Getting even that far took the Biden administration dropping its objections to Turkey buying F-16 jets and Sweden promising to help with Ankara’s moribund European Union membership bid.
Since then, the world has changed considerably. With the war in Israel and Ukraine’s counteroffensive making torturously slow progress, Erdogan may sense a better deal is not in the cards. And, with his F-16s held up by the US Senate, he may also sense the time is right to give a little in order to gain a little rhetorical leverage.
A bomb disposal expert works at the scene after a bomb attack in Ankara, Turkey.
NATO battles: US shoots down Turkish drone in Syria
The US military on Thursday shot down a Turkish drone in northeast Syria, a remarkable development pitting two NATO states with an already complicated alliance against one another.
The Pentagon said that it warned Ankara several times beforehand that its hardware was too close to US troops stationed there, and that it made the decision to strike when the Turkish drone came within 500 meters of US personnel.
How’d we get here? As part of its decade-long mission to abolish the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, the US still has 900 troops operating in northern Syria. They work mainly with the Syrian Democratic Forces – a ragtag group of anti-regime militias including many Kurdish fighters.
Turkey, for its part, has long considered the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK, to be a terror group and has regularly launched operations in northern Syria aimed at rooting them out. What’s more, in recent days, Ankara has launched a fresh bombing campaign against Kurdish forces in Syria after a recent suicide bombing outside Turkey’s security headquarters in the capital – attributed to PKK members trained in Syria – killed two people.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this week that PKK infrastructure and energy facilities in Syria and Iraq are “legitimate targets,” but the Pentagon came to believe that Turkey’s bombardment was imperiling US troops.
Washington is trying to de-escalate. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday that he’d spoken to his Turkish counterpart and emphasized that Washington understands Ankara’s “legitimate security concerns.”
The US, along with its EU partners, has been pushing in recent months for Ankara to give the greenlight to Sweden to join NATO. But Turkey says that’ll only happen when the US agrees to sell it F-16 fighter jets, something the US has so far refused to do in part because of disagreements over relations with Russia and … conflicting operations in Syria.
Relations between the US and Turkey were already very messy, particularly since 2019, when Ankara purchased Russian S-400 missile defense systems. This event will only generate more bad will.
Protestors chant slogans during the demonstration against the Quran Burning In Sweden.
Nordics may ban Quran-burning protests
Quran burnings in Denmark and Sweden in recent weeks have angered Muslims around the world. These protests, usually by far-right extremists, tend to play out in front of embassies of Muslim-majority countries or other government buildings. In turn, Scandinavian leaders have been forced to explain that their hands are tied by their countries’ strict freedom of speech laws. But that may soon change.
Citing security and geopolitical concerns, these governments are now considering whether to ban protests that desecrate religious texts. Denmark’s foreign ministry said Sunday that it is looking at intervening when “other countries, cultures, and religions are being insulted, and where this could have significant negative consequences for Denmark." Sweden said it is considering a similar approach, and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has pointed to concerns that the protests could incite terrorism.
Both countries want to avoid political backlash in Muslim-majority countries, of course, but Sweden has another big incentive: NATO membership. You’ll remember that when Sweden announced it wanted to join NATO, its bid was initially held up by Turkey’s Muslim President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had veto power thanks to NATO’s requirement of unanimous consent. Quran burnings didn’t help Sweden’s case. But then Erdogan changed his mind last month, announcing that he would approve the country’s accession. The US responded by promising to send Erdogan some F-16 fighter jets he’s been wanting. But Sweden’s membership is still not a done deal; Turkey’s parliament isn’t scheduled to sign off on it until October.
We’ll be watching to see whether Denmark and Sweden make legal changes regarding religious protests – and in Sweden’s case, whether it’s fast enough for Turkish lawmakers. Other European countries with Muslim-minority populations will also be keeping a close eye on whether a precedent is set by the Nordic countries.
So far, however, the move isn’t having the desired effect: Protesters in Stockholm responded to the announcements on Monday by – you guessed it – burning pages torn from Islam’s holy book outside the Swedish parliament.
Supporters of the Popular Mobilization Forces protest in Tahrir Square in Baghdad to denounce the burning of the Quran and the Iraqi flag in Stockholm.
Sweden, the Quran, and NATO
When Sweden announced in May that it wanted to join NATO, much of the world treated its membership as a done deal. Then, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reminded us that NATO’s requirement of unanimous consent gave him veto power.
A month later, an incident in Stockholm appeared to fuel Erdogan’s resistance to Sweden’s accession. An Iraqi-born expat publicly burned a copy of the Quran in the capital, an act Sweden’s government insisted it was powerless to forbid under Swedish law. This angered governments, leaders, and citizens across the Muslim world, including Erdogan.
Then, at last week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius, Erdogan surprised the world by announcing that Turkey would not stand in Sweden’s way. A grateful Biden administration responded with a pledge to send Turkey F-16 fighter jets that Erdogan badly wants. Again the world’s media declared that Sweden’s path was certain … until Erdogan added that Turkey’s parliament wouldn’t provide final signoff until October.
On Thursday, Quran-desecrating protesters reappeared in Stockholm and publicly damaged a book they said was the Quran. Rioters in Iraq responded by storming the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad and setting it on fire, and the Iraqi government expelled the Swedish ambassador. Governments in Europe fumed at the Iraqi government’s failure to protect the Embassy.
And now? We’re left with a group of protesters in Sweden who’ve discovered they can generate international headlines whenever they want, a political issue that continues to pit European and Muslim governments against one another, and the reality that, with those American F-16s still on the runway, Sweden’s membership in NATO will continue to depend on the goodwill of Turkey’s government for at least several more months.