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Protestors chant slogans during the demonstration against the Quran Burning In Sweden.
Nordics may ban Quran-burning protests
Quran burnings in Denmark and Sweden in recent weeks have angered Muslims around the world. These protests, usually by far-right extremists, tend to play out in front of embassies of Muslim-majority countries or other government buildings. In turn, Scandinavian leaders have been forced to explain that their hands are tied by their countries’ strict freedom of speech laws. But that may soon change.
Citing security and geopolitical concerns, these governments are now considering whether to ban protests that desecrate religious texts. Denmark’s foreign ministry said Sunday that it is looking at intervening when “other countries, cultures, and religions are being insulted, and where this could have significant negative consequences for Denmark." Sweden said it is considering a similar approach, and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has pointed to concerns that the protests could incite terrorism.
Both countries want to avoid political backlash in Muslim-majority countries, of course, but Sweden has another big incentive: NATO membership. You’ll remember that when Sweden announced it wanted to join NATO, its bid was initially held up by Turkey’s Muslim President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had veto power thanks to NATO’s requirement of unanimous consent. Quran burnings didn’t help Sweden’s case. But then Erdogan changed his mind last month, announcing that he would approve the country’s accession. The US responded by promising to send Erdogan some F-16 fighter jets he’s been wanting. But Sweden’s membership is still not a done deal; Turkey’s parliament isn’t scheduled to sign off on it until October.
We’ll be watching to see whether Denmark and Sweden make legal changes regarding religious protests – and in Sweden’s case, whether it’s fast enough for Turkish lawmakers. Other European countries with Muslim-minority populations will also be keeping a close eye on whether a precedent is set by the Nordic countries.
So far, however, the move isn’t having the desired effect: Protesters in Stockholm responded to the announcements on Monday by – you guessed it – burning pages torn from Islam’s holy book outside the Swedish parliament.
Supporters of the Popular Mobilization Forces protest in Tahrir Square in Baghdad to denounce the burning of the Quran and the Iraqi flag in Stockholm.
Sweden, the Quran, and NATO
When Sweden announced in May that it wanted to join NATO, much of the world treated its membership as a done deal. Then, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reminded us that NATO’s requirement of unanimous consent gave him veto power.
A month later, an incident in Stockholm appeared to fuel Erdogan’s resistance to Sweden’s accession. An Iraqi-born expat publicly burned a copy of the Quran in the capital, an act Sweden’s government insisted it was powerless to forbid under Swedish law. This angered governments, leaders, and citizens across the Muslim world, including Erdogan.
Then, at last week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius, Erdogan surprised the world by announcing that Turkey would not stand in Sweden’s way. A grateful Biden administration responded with a pledge to send Turkey F-16 fighter jets that Erdogan badly wants. Again the world’s media declared that Sweden’s path was certain … until Erdogan added that Turkey’s parliament wouldn’t provide final signoff until October.
On Thursday, Quran-desecrating protesters reappeared in Stockholm and publicly damaged a book they said was the Quran. Rioters in Iraq responded by storming the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad and setting it on fire, and the Iraqi government expelled the Swedish ambassador. Governments in Europe fumed at the Iraqi government’s failure to protect the Embassy.
And now? We’re left with a group of protesters in Sweden who’ve discovered they can generate international headlines whenever they want, a political issue that continues to pit European and Muslim governments against one another, and the reality that, with those American F-16s still on the runway, Sweden’s membership in NATO will continue to depend on the goodwill of Turkey’s government for at least several more months.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson shake hands next to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Vilnius, Lithuania.
NATO at 32. How about 33?
One of the biggest questions hanging over the NATO summit this week in Vilnius has already been answered: Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on Monday to remove his block on Sweden’s bid to join the alliance. The fear created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led Finland to join the alliance in April, bringing NATO to 31 members. Sweden will now make it 32.
Erdogan had opposed Sweden’s path over complaints that Stockholm had given sanctuary to Kurds he considers terrorists. Some analysts have speculated that Turkey’s president would drop objections in exchange for the right to purchase F16 fighter jets from the United States. We’ll see now whether that deal goes through.
The other question looming over the summit is whether Ukraine might win a promise to make Ukraine member no. 33. US President Joe Biden has already taken immediate membership off the table, at least for now, with the argument that NATO can’t accept a member at war. We understand, said Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, “but we need a clear signal, and this signal is needed right now.”
This larger question of how NATO leaders will use the event to signal not just open-ended military and financial support for Ukraine – but also a concrete path to future membership – will be closely watched in Russia, Europe, and the US.
Police officers intervene amid demonstrations over the burning of the Koran outside Stockholm's central mosque.
Sweden, NATO, and the Koran
On Wednesday, Salwan Momika, an Iraqi refugee living in Sweden, set fire to a copy of the Koran in front of Stockholm’s central mosque as Muslims around the world began celebrating the Eid-al-Adha holiday. Not surprisingly, many Muslim governments immediately condemned Sweden for allowing it to happen and for not arresting the man. Nor is it a surprise that Sweden’s prime minister defended the man’s freedom of expression while calling the provocative act “legal but not appropriate.”
There’s nothing new about the anger generated by these clashes of values. In this case, however, the implications extend well beyond Sweden’s relations with Muslim countries. Sweden remains on the brink of joining NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Its government hopes that step can be formalized before a NATO summit in July. But the foreign minister of NATO member Turkey, which has the power to block Sweden’s accession, has responded to the event in Stockholm: “It is unacceptable to allow these anti-Islamic actions under the pretext of freedom of expression. To turn a blind eye to such heinous acts is to be complicit in them.”
Some experts have argued that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would allow Sweden to join once he had secured victory in last month’s election. That hurdle has been cleared. There may be other inducements that can persuade Erdogan to greenlight Sweden’s bid. But a public burning of the Koran in the middle of Stockholm won’t help.Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower, after his indictment by a Manhattan grand jury following a probe into hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels, in New York City, U.S April 3, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Trump’s day in court, Turkey stuffing Sweden, Egypt buddying up
Trump’s arraignment
Donald Trump has a busy day ahead of him Tuesday. He returned to the Big Apple Monday night and, after getting some shut-eye in Trump Tower, the former president will head to the Manhattan courthouse on Tuesday for his indictment. After his court appearance and a quick photo-op, he’ll jet back to Mar-a-Lago before an evening news conference.
Sound like an orchestrated plan? That’s because Trump’s team wants to capitalize on the publicity blitz around his arrest to bolster his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. There’s reason to believe this is working: Since the news of his indictment dropped, his campaign claims to have raised $7 million, and his polling numbers have soared above other Republican candidates.
On March 30, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg brought the results of his investigation before a Manhattan grand jury, which voted to indict the former president. Trump is expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday.
While the charges against him have not been revealed, they likely involve Trump's reimbursement to his former attorney and “fixer,” Michael Cohen, who paid adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in exchange for her silence ahead of the 2016 election. The Trump Organization then filed Cohen’s $420,000 reimbursement and bonus as a “legal expense.”
Falsifying business records is only a misdemeanor in New York, but if it is done with the intent to commit or cover up another crime – namely, violating campaign finance laws – then Trump could be looking at a Class E felony and a minimum of one year in prison.
Trump will be the first former US president to be indicted on criminal charges. But whether his indictment will push the GOP to jump ship in favor of another candidate, or what it means for the campaign if they don’t, remains unclear.
Turkey keeps stuffing Sweden — why?
On Tuesday, Finland finally joins NATO, lengthening the alliance’s border with Russia by 800 miles and adding to its ranks some of the world’s most fearsome snow snipers. Good work, Mr. Putin!
But remember who isn’t joining the club? Sweden, whose accession bid remains blocked by NATO member Turkey, who says Stockholm still hasn’t done enough to quash Kurdish terrorist groups that are at war with the Turkish government. Note that Turkey dropped similar objections about Finland last week but is still squeezing Sweden.
Why? For one thing, Turkey’s pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a very tough election in May, and flexing against the West like this can stoke nationalist passions in his favor. He may also seek concessions from his Western partners elsewhere, say, on Washington’s refusal to sell him state-of-the-art fighter jets, or its support for Kurdish militias in Syria.
For years, Erdoğan has played a shrewd game – as a NATO member but friend to Putin; a European partner on the migrant crisis but at a price. By greenlighting Finland while holding back on Sweden, he’s showing he’s willing to be reasonable but that he expects his pound of flesh too. Will it work?
A battered Egypt searches for friends
Times are tough – economically speaking – in Egypt, and President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi is looking to mend and shore up relations across the region. On Monday, el-Sissi traveled to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, the country’s de facto leader.
El-Sissi's visit comes as the economy of import-reliant Egypt is reeling as a result of economic mismanagement and Russia’s war in Ukraine. (Egypt has been forced to devalue its currency three times over the past year.)
While Riyadh has long doled out funds to help keep cash-strapped Egypt afloat, it recently said that it will no longer hand out blank checks and that Cairo should implement reforms to receive aid. El-Sissi likely wants to convince MBS that he’s already making some changes as part of a deal with the International Monetary Fund.
Another big topic on the agenda? Reintegrating Syria, deemed a pariah by the West, into the Arab League. This comes just days after Egypt and Syria held high-level talks for the first time in a decade as Cairo looks to reestablish diplomatic ties with Bashar al-Assad. Indeed, Egypt is just the latest Arab country to welcome Syria back in from the cold, with reports that el-Sissi hopes to eventually win lucrative contracts to help rebuild the war-torn country.
Swedish NATO bid caught in Erdoğan reelection effort
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Stockholm, Sweden.
How is the process of accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO going?
Well, it's green light for Finland. After ratification by Hungary and Turkey, they've been playing some games, but now green light. Good, excellent. Sweden, they are still holding out. I think President Erdoğan sees this as an asset in his election campaign. There have been some issues with Sweden. I think they have been sorted out, but now it's a question of the politics of Turkey. President Erdoğan, of course, faces an extremely critical election May 14, first round his entire regime's up for grab, and he's holding Sweden hostage in a way that is not entirely good for the security of Europe.
What’s happening in the Mediterranean with refugees?
Well, that's a worrying situation. There have been three times as many refugees, migrants arriving across the Mediterranean to Italy the first few months of this year as last year. There's talk of 900,000 coming this year on planes and trains. There's a very disturbing and difficult situation in Tunisia, both in economic and political terms. Many are coming from Tunisia, but many are coming through Tunisia as well. Clearly it's an unsustainable situation. Can things be done in order to get things better on shape in Turkey? Can there be more solidarity in the European Union helping Italy? These are important question that needs answers.
- Finland’s next step ›
- What We’re Watching: Israel’s mass anti-corruption protests, Sweden’s NATO own goal, Germany's mixed signals ›
- What We’re Watching: Blinken’s Middle East chats, Erdogan’s bid to split Nordics, Peru’s early election, China offers baby incentives ›
- Europe plays the blame game over asylum-seekers ›
- What obligations do rich nations have when it comes to refugees? ›
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses via video link the 26th Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Lagonisi, Greece.
What We're Watching: Ukraine tackles corruption, Nordics-Turkey NATO drama
Ukraine sacks officials over graft
Just days after the Ukrainian defense ministry called reports of graft in its procurement contracts “nonsense,” a deputy defense minister has been sacked to “preserve the trust” of Kyiv’s international partners. Also ousted: one of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s top deputies, a fellow known for living lavishly and speeding around in a flashy car while his countrymen sleep in trenches. The move follows reports that Ukraine’s defense ministry had overpaid for food supplies, suggesting that kickbacks were in the mix. Despite making progress in recent years, Ukraine’s government has long struggled with endemic corruption, but Kyiv is particularly concerned to allay concerns in Europe and the US, which have sent tens of billions of dollars in aid to the country since Russia’s invasion. We’re also watching to see how things play out among rank-and-file soldiers — allegations of corruption at the top during a war where troops are defending their country with homemade dune buggies is a bad bad look …
Nordics-Turkey NATO soap opera continues
Just a few months ago, we all thought that a joint bid by Finland and Sweden to join NATO was a done deal. Not anymore. On Monday night, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pulled his support for Sweden in response to the Swedish government authorizing a far-right protest outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm where a copy of the Quran was burned. What's more, now Finland seems to be getting antsy. Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto on Tuesday suggested that perhaps the Finns will go it alone — although he later walked back the comment, calling for a two-week "time-out" in the talks with Turkey. While taking a chill pill might help calm things down, it's unlikely to resolve Erdoğan’s main beef with the two Nordic countries: In exchange for NATO consent, he wants them to hand over 100+ Turkish and Kurdish dissidents and tighten immigration laws to prevent more Erdoğan critics from seeking refuge there. We don’t know how or when this saga will end, but don't count on Ankara backing down. Erdoğan will weaponize the diplomatic tussle with Sweden to turn out his nationalist base ahead of the May 14 presidential election.Thousands of Israeli protesters rally against PM Benjamin Netanyahu's new government in Tel Aviv.
What We’re Watching: Israel’s mass anti-corruption protests, Sweden’s NATO own goal, Germany's mixed signals
Israelis protest proposed judiciary changes
Israelis took to the streets of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, and Beersheba on Saturday to protest judicial changes proposed by PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s new government, the country’s most right-wing coalition to date. While demonstrations have been underway for weeks, more than 100,000 people gathered in Tel Aviv in the biggest rally yet to oppose the proposed reforms that they fear will weaken the High Court of Justice’s power and independence. Bibi’s government feels the judiciary is biased against it and interfering with its ability to govern, and the PM is vowing to push through the reforms despite the outcry. On Sunday, meanwhile, Bibi finally dismissed key ally Aryeh Deri as interior and health minister, days after the high court ruled he was ineligible to hold a senior cabinet post due to a previous criminal conviction. Deri is head of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, some of whose members had threatened to turn away from Bibi's wobbly government if the PM fired their boss. Just weeks in, this is another sign that Bibi is going to have a hell of a time keeping his coalition together.
Sweden’s NATO bid in trouble after Quran-burning protest
Sweden is scrambling to contain the political fallout from Saturday’s far-right, Quran-burning protest outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, which triggered rallies near the Swedish consulate in Istanbul. Because the Swedish government had given the go-ahead for the demonstration, Turkey had already canceled planned bilateral talks about Sweden’s NATO bid before the rally. Now, Ankara is condemning the burning of the holy book for Muslims as an Islamophobic hate crime. The incident gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fodder for whipping up nationalist sentiment in Turkey ahead of the country’s general election in May or June, as well as extra leverage over other NATO members, all of whom are hoping Ankara relents. The Turks have been using the joint bid by Finland and Sweden to join NATO — which requires unanimous approval — to force the two countries to tighten laws that allow Turkish and Kurdish dissidents to go there. Erdogan is now expected to further delay his consent — perhaps until after the election.