We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Sweden's NATO membership is imminent after Turkey's approval
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week from Davos on World In :60.
With the Turkish parliament officially approving Sweden's membership of NATO, will Hungary remain the lone holdout?
I don't expect it. I think that Sweden is joining. Erdogan still has to sign. So, I mean, isn't done done done until the signatures on. But NATO is being sold very, very effectively by Vladimir Putin, continues to expand.
How will the West react to North Korea arming Russia for the war in Ukraine?
Well, the interesting thing, it's not just that North Korea is arming Russia, that Russia is helping North Korea in return, including advancing their ICBM program, which historically was a red line for the Americans. But what are they going to do about it now? I also notice the North Koreans just kind of blew up their big monument for reunification with the South Koreans. They’re saying the South Koreans are permanent enemy, that reunification is no longer an interest of theirs. You know, the North Koreans now have more room to cause trouble because the Chinese aren't the only country out there that is liking them and restraining them. The Russians provide support and they're much more of a chaos actor. It would not surprise me if we're going to see more trouble from the North Koreans in the coming months.
Is a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas likely in exchange for the release of all remaining hostages?
Well, the US would love to see that. Qatar would love to see that. The Israelis are now willing to consider deals that even a couple of weeks ago they were not. Things are not going as well for them on the ground. They don't really have a strategic endgame in Gaza or with Hamas right now. And there’s even more internal dissent within the war cabinet. I don't see Hamas, though, supporting giving away all of the hostages, which is leverage for them in return for a short-term ceasefire. They're taking a maximalist view. Israel has to pull all of their troops out if they would consider that. And the ceasefire has to be more than a couple of months. You know, functionally permanent. It does not seem at all to me that we are close to a deal. Let's put it that way.
Dealing with Hamas: What a former hostage negotiator learned
What's it like to negotiate directly with Hamas?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Alex Kliment spoke with Gershon Baskin, a hostage negotiator who's dealt directly with Hamas, about the 240 estimated Israeli hostages being held captive in Gaza, what it will take to bring them home, and how to find common in tough negotiations. When Baskin secured the 2011 release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli solider held captive for 5 years, he developed a relationship with Ghazi Hamad, a Hamas leader who’s currently a spokesperson for the war in Gaza.
“The main thing that worked in the past was time,” Baskin tells Kilment, “[Hamad and I] spoke more than a thousand times. In the end, it was the trust that developed between us that enabled us to expose all our cards.”
What is happening today in Gaza is entirely unprecedented, Baskin says. There is no direct contact between the two sides, so they have to use third parties to negotiate, each having their own interest and stake in the situation. Add to that, the fact that among the hostages are many women, young children, and elderly people, making the stakes even higher. Israeli is willing to pay a high price to secure their release, but will they agree to the price Hamas wants?
Watch the episode: Is an Israel-Palestine two-state solution possible?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Hard Numbers: Gaza hostage talks continue, Brazilians bake, Thais toke, Record-scratch in Madagascar election ›
- Saving US hostages in Gaza: Use Egypt as intermediary, urges Rep. Mike Waltz ›
- Israel-Hamas war: "Just bring them back," says brother of 9-year-old Israeli hostage ›
- The Gaza hostages: Can Israel really negotiate their release? ›
- Argentina's economy will get a lot worse before it gets better - GZERO Media ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Hostage release doesn't mean the end is near - GZERO Media ›
Biden's legacy rests on pandemic leadership (not Afghanistan mistakes)
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at the US Senate hearing on Afghanistan, French President Macron's popularity, and China's hostage diplomacy.
As top US military officials testify right now on Capitol Hill, just down the road, do you expect the Biden administration to suffer any long-term consequences for its botched Afghanistan withdrawal?
The answer is yes, but at the margins. I still think Biden will be most remembered overwhelmingly for how he handles the pandemic as well as for the three trillion plus dollars that will likely, but not certainly, get passed to pay for infrastructure and improve the social contract in the US. On both, he has been taking hits. Certainly the former has not gone well in terms of the pandemic response and on balance, I still think that means that the House in midterm elections is going to flip fairly solidly Republican. Means that they understand they have a narrow window to get policy done. Okay. That's it.
Macron was hit with an egg! Is his popularity sinking in France?
Actually, not so much. He's about 40% overall, but that's partially because he's particularly popular with older French citizens. They are less likely to be involved in egg pelting. Look, it's been difficult. He has elections coming up in about half a year. And there are real contenders to his throne, not Marine Le Pen so much, but this fellow Zemmour, who is a right-wing personality, media personality, kind of like the Tucker Carlson of France. Can we even say that? Yeah, we kind of can, and he's gaining a lot in the polls and there's probably going to be a major centrist candidate coming up. And either way, Xavier Bertrand, either way, Macron is going to have a reasonably tough fight on his hand though. Right now you'd be betting on him.
Did China's "hostage diplomacy" work as it freed the "two Michaels" after Canada released Huawei's CFO?
Yeah, it did. But what was interesting is that usually, historically, the Chinese at least pretend, they like the fiction, that when they arrest people, it's because they caused real crimes. They go through a legal system. The judges have to hear it. Not this time around. This time around, they weren't even pretending. And like within hours of Meng being released by the Canadians after the deal cut with the American prosecutors, the two Michaels were released. It was basically a shot directly to the Canadians saying, "if you guys hit with a core interest of ours, we are going to hurt you and we're going to rub your noses in it." It definitely made the Canada-China relations much worse going forward. Also makes the Canadians feel like they're the meat in the US-China sandwich, not a place they really like to be.