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Earlier this week, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, made an astounding declaration: “The Americans … are indifferent to the fate of Europe,” he said. “Europeans must … ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own.”

To be clear, the US hasn’t stepped away from Europe’s security just yet. But Trump 3.0’s aggressive posture towards the EU – on trade, free speech, and Ukraine – has made the specter of abandonment feel real enough.

The EU would need to replace some 300,000 US troops, as well as hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces, according to one report. The yearly cost would be some $260 billion.