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Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a ceremony to present state awards for outstanding achievements on Russia Day in Moscow.
What We’re Watching: Putin’s progress, Italy’s right turn, a not-so-great Iraqi resignation
Putin’s progress
It’s been a positive few days for Russia’s president and his war on Ukraine. Russian forces appear close to capturing the strategically important city of Severodonetsk, bringing them a step closer to control of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. If they can accomplish that, Putin may well move to annex the entire area. Ukrainian officials have called urgently for faster delivery of heavy weapons to counter superior Russian firepower, but plunging stock markets in Europe and the US will strengthen the arguments in the West from those who oppose continued large-scale financial and military help for Ukraine. A new report from the independent Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air finds that higher global oil prices and a loophole that allows Europe to receive boycotted Russian oil via India have kept Russia’s oil revenue relatively high. Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to insist he will block the admission of Finland and Sweden into NATO. Though concessions might change his mind, there’s no guarantee he’ll back down. Russia’s military gains are incremental, and they will come at a great cost to Russia’s economic future. But for now, momentum is with the Kremlin.
Far right gains ground in Italian elections
Sunday’s local elections in 1,000 Italian cities confirmed the advance of right-wing parties nationwide, especially the Brothers of Italy party. The far-right Brothers strengthened its coalition with the fellow far-right Lega and the center-right Forza Italia parties, taking the lead in the regional capitals of Genoa and Palermo. A few key insights emerge. First, the far-right coalition has carved out a secure space in the Italian political landscape in the run-up to the 2023 national election. Second, the exclusion of Brothers from the government no longer looks sustainable. Third, the local elections suggest that the current Draghi government is operating on a weak foundation. While it’s impossible to predict whether Italy’s next government will overturn recent policies, including the country’s strong anti-Russia stance in the Ukraine war, this election demonstrates that far-right, anti-EU, and anti-immigration sentiments are gaining ground in the third-largest net contributor to the EU’s budget. Further challenges to EU unity lie ahead, the most formidable of which may very well come from Italy as early as next year.
Why did dozens of Iraqi parliamentarians resign?
Iraq’s tumultuous national politics were dealt another blow on Sunday when 73 lawmakers who make up the biggest parliamentary bloc resigned en masse. The bloc’s leader — powerful Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — called on allies to vacate their seats after eight painstaking months of negotiations during which opposition groups refused to back a vote that would appoint the next president, a crucial step needed to tap a new prime minister and Cabinet to steer the country’s legislative agenda. Al-Sadr, an Iraqi nationalist who led his supporters to fight US occupying forces in the early 2000s, said he was throwing in the towel so that the country could move past the period of crippling political deadlock. But some analysts say this move could spark even more instability and protests from disgruntled al-Sadr supporters. Many Iraqis are also concerned that this could pave the way for the more radical Coordination Framework — a coalition led by Iran-backed Shiite parties — to fill the political vacuum. Notably, this bloc, which pulled the levers of power before al-Sadr’s alliance gained the most seats in general elections last fall (though few Iraqis showed up to vote), has long used heavy-handed tactics to quash dissent.
What We're Watching: A powder keg in Iraq
Iraqi PM's narrow escape. Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi is lucky to be alive after a barrage of explosives was fired at his compound inside a high-security zone, injuring several security personnel. The brazen attack was carried out by pro-Iran militias, who have been violently calling for a recount since their parties did poorly in the recent parliamentary elections. On Friday, the militias tried to breach the fortified area known as the "Green Zone," which includes the PM's compound and Western embassies. Pro-Iran factions are particularly worried that Shia Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — whose party won the biggest share of votes and is trying to form a government — will try to temper Tehran's growing influence over the oil-rich country. (Al-Sadr has called for way less foreign interference in Iraq from Iran and the West). Even before the recent unrest, things weren't going well in Iraq, where power supplies are scarce and the economy is in shambles. What's more, Iraqis have little faith in the political elite's ability to fix things, as was reflected in the record-low election turnout. We're watching to see if this latest round of violence begets… more violence.
What We're Watching: Few Iraqis vote, Czech Republic in crisis, China-India talks crash again
Iraq's dud of an election: Just 41 percent of eligible Iraqi voters showed up at the polls this weekend, the lowest turnout in the post-Saddam Hussein era. Lack of enthusiasm for the vote – the first since mass protests in 2019 over political corruption and economic stagnation prompted a fierce crackdown – shows the depths of popular dissatisfaction with the political elite. The election came as Iraq grapples with crumbling infrastructure, a moribund economy, and ongoing sectarian strife among Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish players, with Iran meddling on behalf of the Shia groups. Preliminary results show that no candidate is on a path to win a clear majority, meaning that negotiations to choose a PM tasked with forming a government could take weeks or even months. Gulf countries and the US are hoping for a moderate who can ensure the stability of Iraq and challenge Iran's clout in the region. Iraq's current prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, in some ways fits the bill, having played a key role in mediating negotiations between longtime rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Is the Czech Republic headed for a constitutional crisis? The country's billionaire populist prime minister Andrej Babiš suffered a shock defeat in elections over the weekend, edged out by a center-right "Together" coalition that agrees on little beyond the need to defeat him. But the plot thickens! The Together bloc has announced it will seek to form a government with a center-left opposition group led by the Czech Pirate party, but they can't do so officially unless they are asked to by Czech President Miloš Zeman, a staunch Babiš ally who was taken to a hospital over the weekend and remains in intensive care. Zeman said before the vote that he'd ask the party that won the most votes to form a government. That's Babiš' party, which was beaten only by a coalition of parties. It's not clear what happens next. If Zeman is out of the picture, the post-election responsibilities would fall to the speaker of parliament, but he's a member of Babiš' party too. With the current legislature's mandate set to expire in just ten days, the Czech Republic's relatively young democracy is now at risk of a serious constitutional crisis.
China-India high-altitude talks crash again: For more than a year now, China and India have been locked in a tense border standoff high in the Himalayas. The two sides even came to blows last summer; hand-to-hand combat between border guards left 20 Indians and four Chinese dead. Now each side maintains thousands of heavily armed troops, backed by artillery and air power, along the boundary. Over the weekend, commanders from each side met – for the 13th time – to hash out an agreement on who controls what. But each side accused the other of being intransigent and, for the second winter in a row, Asia's two giants will keep their forces in areas where the temperature regularly drops to -30 degrees Celsius. A new "cold war" in Asia?
Men walk near election campaign posters ahead of the parliamentary election in Mosul, Iraq.
Iraq has elections this weekend — will anybody show up?
Iraq will hold on Sunday its fifth election since the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, and the first since a widespread protest movement in 2019 ousted the government in place at that time. Over 900 candidates are vying for 329 parliamentary seats against a backdrop of still-elevated economic, social, and security tensions in the oil-rich country. Eurasia Group analyst Sofia Meranto explains what's at stake in the vote.
Why are the elections being held a year early?
Frustrated with rampant corruption, the power of violent militia groups, lack of economic opportunity and poor public services, the protesters in 2019 called for an overhaul of the country's political system. They demanded changes to allow for more representation of smaller political forces and early elections. Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi was appointed in April of the following year with a mandate to address some of these demands, including an early vote. First scheduled for June 2021, the elections were delayed to October to give authorities more time to complete the preparations. Muqtada al Sadr, an influential religious and political figure, initially said he would not participate, raising the risk of another postponement, but he later changed his mind, ensuring elections go forward.
Will they be free and fair?
Though fraud has often plagued Iraqi elections, efforts to bolster monitoring practices by a large cohort of local and international bodies will probably minimize the problem this time around. More concerning is the pervasive climate of fear created by the intimidation and killing of protesters and political activists by the militias that have emerged in Iraq over the past decade. That has cast a shadow over the electoral process. Widespread disillusionment with the inability of the ruling elite to improve living conditions and rein in the militias will suppress participation in Sunday's vote, likely continuing a trend of low participation — the turnout in 2018 was about 44 percent.
If that's the case, do these elections even matter?
Yes. For one thing, election turnout will provide a useful metric of the level of the public's dissatisfaction. But more importantly, the elections will be critical to determine whether Iraq's political system can continue to evolve to meet the demands of its citizens — that is, whether it gives more power to reformers or further entrenches the defenders of the status quo. That will be important to addressing concerns in the political and economic spheres, as well as to continuing the fight against COVID.
What's the expected outcome?
Iraqi elections typically yield a complicated coalition-building process among Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish parties. The allocation of resources and power along sectarian lines adds layers of complexity, but according to an unwritten rule, the next government will likely be led by a Shia prime minister, a Kurdish president, and a Sunni Arab parliamentary speaker. It's the dynamics of competition among the various factions within these three blocs that makes a tilt toward pragmatism likely following this weekend's elections. That would favor the selection of a more moderate candidate such as Kadhimi as PM, and his reappointment would be positive for reforms. If some independent or small groups manage to win seats, that could also help advance changes to the political system. Still, the power of the traditional Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish elites is unlikely to be greatly challenged.
What are Iraq's neighbors and the US watching out for?
They are all be hoping for an outcome that shores up stability in Iraq, while protecting their own interests. Iran remains invested in keeping Iraq in its orbit and not heavily influenced by the US. In turn, Gulf countries (especially Saudi Arabia), Jordan, and Egypt are focused on strengthening their own ties with Baghdad and pushing back against Iranian influence. The US has been seeking to promote reformists, and it backed the current Iraqi government as it tried to pull Iraq closer to its Arab neighbors. Also important to the US will be the new government's stance on the presence of US forces in Iraq, which some parties have opposed. China, meanwhile, is interested in expanding its energy investments in and trade with Iraq, and will be on the lookout for political openings to do so.