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A mock customs post is set up with protesters from border communities between Ireland and Northern Ireland against Brexit.
What We’re Watching: End of Brexit? No, US-India tech alliance, Czechs checking China
Are the EU and UK close to a post-Brexit deal?
For a fleeting moment, it seemed like Brexit wrangling could finally end. But no. After reports claimed that the EU and UK were close to clinching a deal on trade rules for Northern Ireland, Brussels announced that, despite some progress, several issues remain intractable. (Really sorry you still have to hear about Brexit, but the Northern Ireland Protocol, you might recall, is the arrangement that Boris Johnson reached with the EU to avoid creating a hard border between the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, and Northern Ireland, a part of the UK.) One big sticking point is that Downing Street, along with the pro-UK DUP Party in Northern Ireland, wants to limit the role of the European Court of Justice in overseeing trade-related disputes. Another is the failure to agree on a practical border system that would avoid rigorous checks by customs. With Prime Minister Rishi Sunak facing mounting pressure from Tory Brexiteers not to give an inch to Brussels, we’re watching to see how he navigates a major political test that threatens to further split his Conservative Party.
US and India launch tech alliance aimed at China and Russia
Under an ambitious new project launched this week, India and the US will join forces on a range of advanced technologies like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and new weapons. Washington has been trying to woo India into a partnership like this for years, but Delhi’s long-standing “non-aligned” foreign policy made it tough to get to yes. Now, however, the two democracies’ shared concerns about authoritarian China’s rise seem to have moved things along. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan described the new project as part of an “overall strategy to put the entire democratic world in the Indo-Pacific in a position of strength.” But the initiative isn’t aimed solely at China. Washington is also keen to displace Russia as one of India’s largest weapons suppliers, which would be both a strategic and economic boon for the US while striking another blow at Russia’s heavily sanctioned economy. India’s military, for its part, may be pretty keen to get access to weapons of higher quality and greater reliability than what they get from Russia.
Czech checks China?
Who picks a fight with an adversary 100 times their size? Petr Pavel, the president-elect of the Czech Republic, has been publicly clashing with China over Taiwan all week after holding a phone call with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. China, which hates it when countries engage with Taiwan directly, exploded with hurt, accusing Pavel of “stepping on China’s red line” and trampling “the feelings of the Chinese people.” Pavel — a former top general at NATO who has previously warned that China’s undemocratic values mean it can never be a friend to Prague — shot back that as a sovereign country, the Czechs can speak to whomever they please. Why is Pavel doing this? Well, for one thing, the fiercely pro-EU Pavel is looking to quickly distinguish himself from outgoing president Miloš Zeman, whose coziness with China and Russia raised hackles in Brussels. Ordinary Czechs, for their part, are none too fond of those two countries either. Could Pavel pay a price? China often cuts commercial or diplomatic ties with countries that treat Taiwan as an equal. But the Czech-Chinese commercial relationship is minuscule, and Beijing’s vague promises of investment have mostly come to nothing. Still, a country of 10 million poking a billion-person behemoth is no small gamble – President Pavel better be sure the EU has his back.
Eyewitness footage shows explosion at military industry factory in Isfahan, Iran.
What We're Watching: Iran weapons depot targeted, fierce battles in eastern Ukraine, Czechs back pro-EU president, McCarthy-Biden debt limit meeting
What we know about the Isfahan attack
In what’s broadly believed to have been an Israeli attack, three drones hit an Iranian ammunition factory in the central city of Isfahan, Iran, on Saturday night. Iranian state media said damage to the site was “minor,” but phone footage suggests that the compound – used to produce advanced weapons and home to its Nuclear Fuel Research and Production Center – took a serious blow. An oil refinery in the country's northwest also broke out in flames on Saturday, though the cause remains unknown. Then, on Sunday night, a weapons convoy traveling from Syria to Iraq was also targeted by airstrikes. US reports attributed the Isfahan attack to Israel – which has in the past targeted nuclear sites in Natanz and hit Iranian convoys transporting weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Indeed, this comes after Russia purchased hundreds of Iranian-made “suicide drones,” which it has used to pummel Ukrainian cities. While the deepening military alliance between Iran and Russia is a growing concern for Washington, it’s unclear if Uncle Sam played a role in the Isfahan hit – or whether Israel, which has to date refused to deliver heavy arms to Kyiv, agreed to carry out this attack in part to frustrate Iranian drone deliveries to the Russians. The escalation comes just days after CIA Director William Burns flew to Israel for meetings with his Israeli counterparts – and as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Israel and the West Bank this week. Crucially, it highlights the increasing overlap between Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the longtime shadow war between Iran and Israel.
The battle for Bakhmut
Days after securing commitments from Germany and the US for advanced battle tanks, Kyiv says it’s engaged in “fast-track” talks with its Western counterparts for long-range missiles and military aircraft to provide cover for tanks in action. This comes after a weekend of heavy fighting outside Bakhmut, a flashpoint in eastern Ukraine and a critical supply route for the Russian military. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz does not seem to be on board with these arms deliveries – at least for now. Ukraine, for its part, has been targeting train lines around Bakhmut, specifically in villages that are well-positioned to act as hubs for Russia to bring reinforcements into southern Ukraine. Meanwhile, as the Russians pummeled the village of Kostyantnivka on Saturday, Ukraine reportedly hit a hospital in occupied Luhansk, saying it was being used as Russian military headquarters. As heavy fighting continues – and Russia reportedly prepares to call up more troops – Kyiv says it’s having increasing difficulty fending off Russian advances.
Czechs choose "calm"
In a second-round run-off, the Czech Republic elected retired general Petr Pavel as its new president. The pro-Europe, former NATO four-star officer beat populist Andrej Babis, a former PM, reaping 58.32% of the vote compared to his opponent's 42%. Three of the candidates who dropped out after the first-round backed Pavel in a contest marred by threats and disinformation – and cast as a fight between Pavel’s pro-Europe multilateralism and Babis’ populism, which resonated largely with rural voters. Pavel, a former chief of general staff of the Czech military, who vowed to "lead with experience and calm" wants to continue aiding Ukraine in lockstep with the West. Babis, who would have likely adopted many of the same policies as current populist President Milos Zeman, recently said he would not honor NATO’s mutual defense clause, but later walked that back. Even though the role of the president is largely ceremonial, the office still carries weight, including being responsible for choosing the prime minister and the central bank chief. Indeed, Pavel’s win reiterates the country’s pro-Western leanings and will be music to the ears of bureaucrats in Brussels.
Can Biden and McCarthy solve the debt limit crisis?
Newly confirmed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said on Sunday that he will meet President Joe Biden at the White House on Wednesday to try and chart a path on raising the debt ceiling to avoid default. (For context on what the debt ceiling is and why it matters, see this GZERO explainer.) Interestingly, McCarthy said that cuts to Medicare and Social Security – which some fiscal hawks in his party had been pushing for – were “off the table.” Indeed, it’s a good sign that the two are set to meet face-to-face to try and solve a looming catastrophe, but they are still miles apart in finding common ground. Biden, for his part, says he won’t negotiate and that the Republican-controlled House needs to raise the debt limit without preconditions in order to avoid an economic crisis. But McCarthy – who is being held hostage by the far-right faction of his party that nearly torpedoed his speakership bid – can’t make many concessions on increasing the federal government’s borrowing capacity without putting himself at risk of being booted out by his own caucus. While neither side has much political wiggle room, emergency measures put in place by the US Treasury to avoid default will expire in June.
Mourners carry the bodies of Palestinians, including militants, killed in an Israeli raid, during their funeral in Jenin
What We’re Watching: West Bank violence, Czech election runoff, Thai coup jitters
After Jenin raid, Palestinian militants vow “revenge”
At least nine Palestinians were killed Thursday in Jenin in one of the deadliest West Bank operations in recent years carried out by the Israel Defense Forces. Israel’s military said it stormed the Jenin refugee camp to arrest members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad suspected of carrying out and planning “multiple major terror attacks.” Authorities confirmed that at least seven gunmen and two civilians were killed in the operation that also injured 20 Palestinians. While members of Israel’s new right-wing government have been criticized for wanting to relax the military’s rules of engagement, this raid was part of a long-running effort to root out terror groups in the northern West Bank, which began last year after a series of attacks that killed 31 Israelis – retaliatory missions notably led to more than 100 Palestinian deaths. Israel is now on high alert, fearing a slate of missile strikes from the Gaza Strip as well as unrest in the West Bank and Jerusalem after Palestinian terror outfits – including Hamas and PIJ – vowed “revenge.” Friday saw a limited exchange of Palestinian rockets and Israeli airstrikes.
Czech runoff held after nasty campaign
Czechs vote on Friday and Saturday in a presidential runoff that pits former PM Andrej Babiš against former General Petr Pavel. Babiš, a Euroskeptic populist billionaire who leads the opposition in Parliament, says Pavel will drag the country into a war with Russia. Pavel, a Europhile who once headed NATO’s military council, says his opponent is a scaremongering liar. Each candidate has, for good measure, accused the other of collaboration with the pre-1989 Communist regime. Babiš made headlines abroad this week by saying he wouldn’t send Czech soldiers to defend NATO allies, though he later walked it back. Pavel, whose campaign slogan is “Let’s bring back order and calm,” leads the polls by double digits, but his outsized support among urban and younger voters may be better reflected in surveys than Babiš’s older, more rural base. Czech presidents are mostly ceremonial, but they can influence government formation and policy, and they represent the country abroad. Over the past decade, outgoing president Miloš Zeman – a Babiš ally – repeatedly stoked controversy, in part because of his overt sympathies for Russia.
Thaksin's return spooks army ahead of Thai election
The political temperature in Thailand is getting hotter in the run-up to the May election. This week, PM Prayuth Chan-ocha abruptly ended a press conference when he was asked if deposed former PM Thaksin Shinawatra might return to the country from his Dubai exile — perhaps if his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, becomes premier. "Don't talk about that man. I don't like it," the ex-army chief snapped before walking off stage. This gives us a sense of what the powerful Thai military might do if the family gets even close to winning back power. It's an open secret that the men in uniform hate the family, which has dominated Thai politics for a generation. (Prayuth himself helped oust first Thaksin and later his sister, Yingluck, in military coups before turning civilian PM.) Still, a Thaksin-backed party has won every single Thai election since 2001, and Paetongtarn is slaying Prayuth in the polls. Buckle up for a lot of political trouble this year in the Land of Smiles, where politics are deeply personal and the army is fond of taking over when it loses at the ballot box.What We're Watching: Migrants flood Polish border, Czech Republic's unwieldy coalition, Kuwait's government steps down
Migrant crisis deepens at Belarusian-Polish border. The deteriorating situation on Poland's border with Belarus intensified Monday, with Warsaw deploying 12,000 troops amid fears that an influx of migrants might storm the border from Belarusian territory. Latvia and Lithuania, fearing a migrant wave, have joined Poland in upping border security at their own frontiers. For months, Poland, an EU country, has accused Belarus' strongman President Alexander Lukashenko of opening his country's border to flood Poland with Middle Eastern and Asian migrants desperate to enter the EU. Lukashenko's move is payback for EU sanctions against Minsk. Poland has even accused Belarusian forces of physically pushing some migrants into Polish territory. Dramatic footage on Monday showed the problem has gotten much worse, with thousands of migrants gathering at the border, some using instruments to try to cut into barbed wire barriers. As a brutal winter descends in Eastern Europe, the situation is becoming more dire for the migrants themselves. Scores of them have died of hypothermia after being expelled from Polish territory and denied food and medical treatment. (Unsurprisingly, Belarus was unwilling to take them back.) Poland says that Belarus recently "escorted" some 1,000 migrants to its border, and that it is bracing for a major security breach. Meanwhile, thousands of desperate migrants, stuck in the intra-European crossfire, are in desperate need of help.
Czechmate for outgoing prime minister. It took five parties, arranged in two somewhat unwieldy coalitions, to defeat the Czech Republic's popular populist Prime Minister Andrej Babiš in elections last month, but the deal is now done. The center-right Together coalition and the center-left, Pirate-led coalition on Monday inked an agreement to form a government helmed by Petr Fiala, leader of the Together bloc's ODS party. The move comes after weeks of negotiations and uncertainty about whether the hospitalized President Milos Zeman would flout election results and give his ally Babiš a crack at forming a government first. Fiala's government will face big challenges: digging out of the pandemic, taming rising national debt, and reviewing testy relations with Prague's former imperial masters in Moscow. Relations with the neighbors could get choppier as well — Fiala, in contrast to Babiš, is much more pro-EU than Hungary's Viktor Orban or the PiS government in Poland.
(Ku)Wait for it. For the second time this year, Kuwait's government resigned on Monday in a move that could defuse a political deadlock that has hampered the oil-rich country's ability to sort out its finances. Background: Kuwait has a hybrid political system in which a popularly elected parliament can introduce legislation and exert some oversight over a government still appointed by the Emir, who usually packs it with family members. In recent months, opposition lawmakers have squabbled with Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah about his handling of the pandemic, allegations of corruption, and the fate of political dissidents in exile. His resignation, coupled with a draft proposal on amnesty for those dissidents, could now smooth things over. A bit of harmony can't come quickly enough for Kuwait: although the country has lots of oil, low crude prices in recent years have provoked political conflict over how to balance the budget while continuing to offer expansive cradle-to-grave social benefits. Increased deficit spending is one option, but that requires parliamentary action, something that has been hampered by infighting.
Billionaire populist Czech PM Babiš is on his way out after election loss
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe:
What's happening in Poland? Should we worry?
Well, legal niceties aside, within the realm of the treaties, the European Union treaties, agreed, it is fundamental that the laws apply and are respected. And if the Polish constitutional court, loaded with political appointees, now decides that they don't apply in Poland, that sort of undermines the very concept of Polish membership of the European Union. So we'll see what happens. We haven't heard the last of this, but it's a fundamental battle. There's no question about that.
What was the outcome of the Czech Republic election?
Well, the outcome was rather surprising and hath in victory for the united opposition or in two different blocks, to be precise. It's center-right, but it's also a rather mixed bag of different parties. It will take some time. And there's a wild card in the form of the rather erratic president and exactly how he's going to handle it. But sooner or later, the billionaire populist prime minister is on his way out.
What We're Watching: Few Iraqis vote, Czech Republic in crisis, China-India talks crash again
Iraq's dud of an election: Just 41 percent of eligible Iraqi voters showed up at the polls this weekend, the lowest turnout in the post-Saddam Hussein era. Lack of enthusiasm for the vote – the first since mass protests in 2019 over political corruption and economic stagnation prompted a fierce crackdown – shows the depths of popular dissatisfaction with the political elite. The election came as Iraq grapples with crumbling infrastructure, a moribund economy, and ongoing sectarian strife among Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish players, with Iran meddling on behalf of the Shia groups. Preliminary results show that no candidate is on a path to win a clear majority, meaning that negotiations to choose a PM tasked with forming a government could take weeks or even months. Gulf countries and the US are hoping for a moderate who can ensure the stability of Iraq and challenge Iran's clout in the region. Iraq's current prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, in some ways fits the bill, having played a key role in mediating negotiations between longtime rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Is the Czech Republic headed for a constitutional crisis? The country's billionaire populist prime minister Andrej Babiš suffered a shock defeat in elections over the weekend, edged out by a center-right "Together" coalition that agrees on little beyond the need to defeat him. But the plot thickens! The Together bloc has announced it will seek to form a government with a center-left opposition group led by the Czech Pirate party, but they can't do so officially unless they are asked to by Czech President Miloš Zeman, a staunch Babiš ally who was taken to a hospital over the weekend and remains in intensive care. Zeman said before the vote that he'd ask the party that won the most votes to form a government. That's Babiš' party, which was beaten only by a coalition of parties. It's not clear what happens next. If Zeman is out of the picture, the post-election responsibilities would fall to the speaker of parliament, but he's a member of Babiš' party too. With the current legislature's mandate set to expire in just ten days, the Czech Republic's relatively young democracy is now at risk of a serious constitutional crisis.
China-India high-altitude talks crash again: For more than a year now, China and India have been locked in a tense border standoff high in the Himalayas. The two sides even came to blows last summer; hand-to-hand combat between border guards left 20 Indians and four Chinese dead. Now each side maintains thousands of heavily armed troops, backed by artillery and air power, along the boundary. Over the weekend, commanders from each side met – for the 13th time – to hash out an agreement on who controls what. But each side accused the other of being intransigent and, for the second winter in a row, Asia's two giants will keep their forces in areas where the temperature regularly drops to -30 degrees Celsius. A new "cold war" in Asia?
Demonstrators attend a protest rally demanding the resignation of Czech's Prime Minister Andrej Babis, in Prague.
Pirates ahoy in the Czech election?
Voters in the Czech Republic head to the polls this weekend in a general election that features pirates.
Prime Minister Andrej Babiš — a Euroskeptic, big-spending populist billionaire with a support base among older, rural Czechs — is fighting for re-election against two main coalitions: a rag-tag center-right alliance called "Together", and a center-left alliance captained by the Czech Pirate Party.
The Czech Pirates are led by Ivan Bartoš, a dreadlocked former IT architect who plays the accordion. They call for progressive social and environmental policies, better relations with Brussels, and they have strong support from younger, urban Czechs. They're already the third largest party in parliament, and a Pirate is currently mayor of Prague.
Until recently, the Pirates had a commanding lead in polls. But poor messaging and a vicious counter attack from Babiš — who portrays them as pro-immigrant neo-Marxists — have hurt them. Babiš' ANO party now leads the polls with 26 percent, Together has 21 percent, while the Pirates sail in third place with 18 percent. None of that bodes well for coalition-building after the vote, with few clear paths to a government for any of the main blocs.
The election takes place against the backdrop of one of the world's worst COVID outbreaks, but with the pandemic receding, Czech voters are more concerned about economic issues now than about the public health crisis, Lenka Kabrhelová, host of Czech Radio's popular Vinohradská 12 news analysis podcast, told GZERO. Late in the campaign the anti-immigration Babiš also sought to make the threat of refugees a big issue, even though there are virtually none to speak of in the Czech Republic right now.
Babiš' opponents, meanwhile, will try to capitalize on the fact that although he was elected on an anti-corruption platform, he is currently under EU and Czech investigations for corruption and improperly steering EU funds towards his own businesses. Pandora Papers revelations about his luxe French villas won't help. But turnout will be key, says Kabrhelová — Babiš's die-hard older constituents tend to head to the polls en masse.
Presidential health wildcard: President Miloš Zeman, a close Babiš ally who is formally responsible for choosing who gets to form the government after the election, is severely ill, unable even to leave his home to cast a ballot. If he is incapacitated, it would throw a major wrench into the post-election works: the next in line of succession is a member of the opposition Together coalition.
Whoever wins will have big problems to work out. For one thing, the country's debt is soaring, which will force the next government to do something very unpopular — cut spending or raise taxes. There is a big foreign policy question as well. In recent years Babiš and president Zeman have aligned Prague more closely with EU bad boys Hungary and Poland, as well as with Russia. His opponents want to steer the country back towards Brussels.
Which way will the ship of the Czech state sail, and will pirates be on the bridge or not?
Fun fact: The olde time pirate greeting "ahoy!" is actually how you say "Hi" in Czech. Try it out, matey.UPDATE: this version of the article updates to include intimation about president Zeman’s health.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article said the elections were to be held on Sunday, rather than Friday-Saturday. We regret the error.