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Ohio Election

USA Today

Hard Numbers: A loss for the GOP in Ohio, Poland beefs up border, shark attacks in Gotham, chips fall well for Dresden, Chinese parents swipe for their kids

57: In what’s broadly seen as a bellwether vote, 57% of Ohio voters this week rejected a measure, known as Issue 1, that would make it harder to amend the state constitution. This was broadly seen as a win for abortion rights advocates ahead of a vote in November that will seek to enshrine abortion rights (up until the point of fetal viability) in the state constitution.

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Europe's border crisis isn't over

The crisis at the Belarusian-Polish border appears to have eased, but is far from over. Thousands of people desperate to enter the European Union remain stuck in the border zone, waiting for Poland to at least consider their asylum applications.

Where do things currently stand and what are some of the key players hoping to achieve?

Belarus' Lukashenko: Accept me as I am

President Alexander Lukashenko – affectionately known as "Europe's last dictator" – created the current crisis by facilitating dozens of flights to Minsk from refugee hotspots in Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Through an organized campaign that began in June, his government has lured thousands of migrants to Belarus with promises of eventual resettlement in the EU.

Why? By unleashing a migrant crisis, Lukashenko wanted to put pressure on Brussels to recognize his presidency, which the EU has refused to do since the strongman rigged presidential elections last year, unleashed a brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters, and hijacked an EU flight.

So far, Lukashenko's gambit hasn't worked. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made a point of referring to him as "Mr Lukashenko" rather than "President" in recent calls, which made him feel very unseen. Meanwhile, Washington and Brussels have in fact hit Minsk with more sanctions in recent weeks, though some apply to travel agencies, transportation companies and airlines that have shuttled migrants from the Middle East to Eastern Europe in recent months, rather than targeting Lukashenko and his cronies directly.

European Union: Faux outrage

Things have since settled down somewhat, with Minsk having caved to pressure to clear certain processing centers at the Polish border, as well as hit the brakes on incoming flights.

But these developments do not address the problem of what to do with the migrants who remain at the border. While some have already been sent back to Iraq, thousands remain stranded in swampy forestland, as Polish and Belarusian forces continue playing tug of war. The death toll at the border is now 10 – and climbing.

The basic problem is that six years on from the 2015 refugee crisis, the EU still does not have a coherent or effective policy on how to deal with migrants, leaving things largely, in practice, up to individual member states.

The European Commission had previously proposed a far-reaching immigration plan based on "a compulsory solidarity mechanism," which would compel each member state to host asylum seekers, as well as to share the burden of funding medical supplies and equipment at arrival zones.

But that proposal still needs to be approved unanimously in the European Council after consultation with Parliament (a very convoluted process). Stalemate persists because some state governments have opposed measures that would require countries to take in refugees and the EU remains powerless to force them.

But it's not just so-called "illiberals" in Poland and Hungary who feel this way. Data show that EU residents across the board see immigration from outside the bloc as presenting more of a "problem" (38 percent) than an "opportunity" (20 percent).

Meanwhile, migrants at the border remain in limbo. Warsaw – with support from the Polish constituency – continues to double-down on its hardline position. Human rights groups say that Poland's actions violate the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which states that everyone has a right to seek asylum from persecution. But even if EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would like Poland to deescalate, allowing at least some migrants to be processed in the EU, she continues to strongly back Warsaw in its ongoing row with Minsk.

What now? Lukashenko claims that he does not seek further confrontation with the EU, which he said would make "war unavoidable." So far, the EU is not backing down, saying the onus is on Minsk to end the current crisis.

It's increasingly clear that the EU, for its part, has no mechanism to force member states to take in migrants even as migration remains a critical issue bloc-wide, not least as a big refugee crisis is already brewing in Afghanistan.

Biden-Xi virtual summit shows breakthroughs in US-China relationship
Return to International Travel | Biden-Xi Virtual Summit Breakthroughs | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Biden-Xi virtual summit shows breakthroughs in US-China relationship

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at his return to international travel, Joe Biden & Xi Jinping's virtual summit, and the Belarus-Poland border crisis.

How was your return to international travel?

Well, actually it was pretty straightforward. I mean, you think that you hear all these lockdowns and all these quarantines, but the fact is Singapore is incredibly efficient. The one thing that's kind of unusual is you have this app you have to put on your phone. You turn it on, you have to keep your phone on and they track you absolutely everywhere, which is pretty weird and kind of dystopian, but it works for closing down COVID. Aside from that though, no problems getting in here. No problem walking around.

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Migrants walk towards the Bruzgi-Kuznica Bialostocka border crossing in an attempt to cross the Belarusian-Polish border in the Grodno Region, Belarus November 15, 2021.

Leonid Scheglov/BelTA/Handout via REUTERS

What We’re Watching: EU vs everyone, Austria vs the unvaccinated, India vs smog, Barbados vs real world

The EU targets "everyone!" The EU on Monday unanimously agreed to impose fresh sanctions on "everyone involved" in bringing migrants to the Belarus-Poland border, where a diplomatic and humanitarian crisis continues as thousands of asylum-seekers shiver in makeshift camps. Brussels says Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has deliberately created this crisis to strike back against existing EU sanctions that were imposed in response to his sham re-election last year and his hijacking of a RyanAir flight this summer. Reports show that Belarus loosened visa restrictions for migrants — largely from Iraq — to serve as a transit point for migrants hoping to cross the EU border to apply for asylum. Details of the new sanctions aren't yet decided, but they are likely to target political officials, travel agencies, and airlines. Lukashenko has vowed to fight back, but he won't cut off the Russian gas flows that traverse his country on the way to Europe — Vladimir Putin quickly slapped down that possibility after Lukashenko raised it over the weekend. The question remains: will EU sanctions change Belarus' behavior?

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Hundreds of migrants camp at the Belarus side of the border with Poland near Kuznica Bialostocka, Poland, in this photograph released by the Polish Defence Ministry, November 10, 2021.

MON/Handout via REUTERS

What We’re Watching: Eastern Europe border crisis, US-China climate pledge, Bolsonaro’s a centrist now

Migrants suffer as Eastern European deadlock deepens. The stalemate at the Polish-Belarusian border continues, with reports that several migrants languishing in freezing temperatures in the forest have recently frozen to death while waiting for asylum. The EU says Minsk is using the migrants as a political weapon against Brussels international heavyweights have intervened in recent days to try t chart a path forward. German Chancellor Angela Merkel – who's just days away from her retirement — has been appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin to use his sway with Minsk to resolve the dispute. Putin, who's no doubt enjoying his clout and leverage, says that Brussels needs to negotiate directly with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko – but that has been a non-starter so far because the EU has cut off communication with the strongman since his rigged re-election last year. Feeling emboldened by the standoff, Lukashenko doubled down Thursday, saying that if the bloc slaps fresh sanctions on him, he would cut off the flow of gas that flows from Russia to Western Europe via Belarusian territory. That's a scary prospect indeed for a Europe which is already dealing with painful gas shortages as winter approaches.

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Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions
Lukashenko’s Exploiting Migrants To Pressure EU Over Sanctions | Europe In :60 | GZERO Media

Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe:

What's the nature of the migration crisis between Belarus and Poland?

Well, it's not a migration crisis, really. It's a question of the weaponization of the misery of people. Lukashenko wants to, sort of, exert pressure on Poland and on the European Union because of the sanctions that are imposed upon him for his undemocratic behavior. And that is importing miserable people from the Middle East, flying them into Minsk, probably at great expense to them, and then effectively forcing them over the border to Poland. That has to be stopped, and a number of measures are underway to do that. It's really an unacceptable way of exploiting people.

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Record US inflation levels worsen Americans' view of the economy
Record US Inflation Levels Worsen Americans’ View of the Economy | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Record US inflation levels worsen Americans' view of the economy

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at rising US inflation, the migrant crisis at the Poland-Belarus border, and the draft deal of the COP26 climate agreement.

US inflation hits its highest level in three decades. How will the Biden administration be impacted?

Well, it's not well. I mean, the economy is doing very well right now. We're getting all of these record levels in the markets. And companies have extraordinary profits, and growth is going gangbusters. So it's not stagflation. But I mean, the inflation levels on top of the fact that it's Christmas season coming up, and people are exhausted from dealing with COVID, is making people feel much worse about the economy otherwise would. I don't think we've ever seen this kind of a gap between economic reality and expectations and Biden's ability to do a lot on inflation is very limited at this point. I mean, he's pushing OPEC to produce more energy, which is a problem with the COP summit, but at the end of the day, I mean, this has a lot more to do with the massive explosion of post-COVID supply and demand growth, and all coming online at the same time. Plus labor shortages. It's not something that's easy for them to deal with. So I think it's going to be a challenge for them for months, but elections aren't for a year so the timing is not so horrible.

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Polish service members and police officers are seen behind a barbed wire fence as hundreds of migrants gather on the Belarusian-Polish border in an attempt to cross it in the Grodno region, Belarus November 9, 2021.

Leonid Scheglov/BelTA/Handout via REUTERS

The EU’s big Eastern problems

Let's take a trip along the eastern fringes of the EU today, where two big problems are brewing at a time when Brussels seems particularly unable to respond effectively.

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