We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
0PTS
Tory revolt threatens Rishi’s signature immigration bill
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson is leading a group of 60 Tory rebels who threaten to vote against the bill on Wednesday unless it includes an amendment prohibiting asylum-seekers from filing legal appeals against their deportation. Johnson’s group argues it is trying to strengthen the bill. Two Conservative MPs, Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith, resigned as deputy chairs of the Conservative Party on Tuesday after joining the revolt against Rishi’s legislation.
But Conservative moderates fear the bill may already violate international refugee law and have signaled that they would oppose stronger language.
Sunak also worries that Rwanda will not accept the deal if the amendment is made. The Labour Party will vote against the legislation on principle, so the bill’s only hope for passage is an end to the Tory revolt and Conservatives voting as a united front.
Sunak has made stopping the arrival of “small boats” carrying refugees a central aim of his government. A defeat of such a central plank of his legislation would be disastrous at a time when his party is already expected to be wiped out by Labour in the next general election later this year.
Boris Johnson remains a dangerous force in UK politics
Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics, this week from the Oslo airport.
Is the political career of Boris Johnson over?
Seems to be the case but you can never be entirely certain, in his particular case. I think he has the ambition to come back. And clearly, he's going to remain a dangerous, in my opinion, a very disruptive force inside the Conservative Party. If they lose the election next year, which is not unlikely, mildly speaking, there might be a civil war and Boris Johnson might be one of the leaders of that particular civil war inside the Conservative Party. But remains to be seen.
What's the legacy, political and otherwise, of Silvio Berlusconi?
Well, to be on the positive side, he created a media empire. He did some reforms of the Italian political system after the scandals that sort of ripped apart the old political system in the past, but apart from that and in spite of the fact that he is now, sort of, given a state funeral and everyone is parading for him, that happens in situations like this, I think his legacy is mostly negative on the populist, who in three terms of government did very, very little to address the fundamental problems of the Italian economy, in the Italian state. A populist man who maneuvered, a man who had self-interest at the center of most things. But I think history will not judge him too kind.
Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Is this the end of Boris Johnson?
Boris Johnson is out of British political life for the first time in more than 20 years after announcing on Friday that he’s giving up his parliamentary seat and resigning from the House of Commons effective immediately.
Johnson took this preemptive step after seeing the results of Parliament’s privilege committee investigation that accused him of lying to parliament over the “partygate” scandal. The committee comprised of four Conservative and three Labour MPs was reportedly set to recommend that the former PM be banned from the chamber for 20 days – though the report has not yet been made public.
This recommendation would have led to a by-election if 10% of voters in Johnson’s constituency backed the move. Given Johnson’s deep unpopularity, this was all but a sure thing, and he quit in a huff – decrying the “witch hunt” on his way out – rather than risk being shown the door.
It’s a startling fall from grace for a man who, in 2019, inherited the biggest parliamentary majority since the 1970s, only to squander it by breaking his own COVID lockdown rules and lying about it repeatedly. Still, Johnson has left open the possibility of another political run, though he would have to find a new seat to run in. (His current seat will almost certainly flip to Labour.)
What does this mean for the Conservative Party? PM Rishi Sunak, a Johnson rival, said that he backs the parliamentary committee’s work. But even though Sunak will undoubtedly be glad to see the back of Johnson’s shaggy head, this drama – Johnson called the committee a “kangaroo court” – is a distraction the PM doesn’t want, particularly after he’s spent the past year trying to convince voters that the days of petty Tory Party infighting are over.
What’s more, two other Tory MPs and Johnson allies also resigned Friday over a separate matter, meaning that the Conservative Party will now face three tough by-elections next month.
This development, however, is unlikely to have a significant impact on broader politics considering that the Labour Party is pummeling the Tories in the polls and is expected to maintain this edge in the lead-up to next year’s election.Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a reception at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023.
What We're Watching: Russia strikes Ukraine amid dueling wartime trips, Boris Johnson’s ‘Partygate’ showdown, Israeli settlements U-turn
After Xi-Putin summit, Moscow strikes Ukraine
Over the past few days, Vladimir Putin pulled out all the stops to entertain his "good old friend" Xi Jinping in Moscow, during what was perhaps the most geopolitically significant bilateral summit of the year so far.
Seven-course dinner — check. Insanely long red carpet at the Kremlin — check. Putin doing Xi the rare courtesy of showing up on time — check.
But beyond the pomp, ничего особенного (nothing much). The summit ended with a joint press conference featuring boilerplate statements about Sino-Russian cooperation. There was no mention of China potentially supplying arms to Russia, and no call for a ceasefire in Ukraine, although Putin did say that Xi's peace plan could be a first step toward a negotiated settlement “once the West and Kyiv are ready for it."
But then right after Xi's visit on Wednesday, the Kremlin launched fresh drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, killing at least four people in a residential area outside Kyiv.
While President Volodymyr Zelensky has so far tried to remain open to Beijing's intervention, he tweeted that "every time someone tries to hear the word 'peace' in Moscow, another order is given there for such criminal strikes."
Is Putin feeling emboldened? From Putin's perspective, a visit from Xi, who’s been something of a homebody himself since the pandemic, lets Putin show that although the US and its allies have blackballed him, he is still far from isolated globally – and that the Russia-China friendship “without limits” is an axis of power Washington has to reckon with.
We're watching to see how — or if — Beijing responds to the latest onslaught that comes on the heels of Xi's whirlwind diplomacy.
Kishida in Kyiv
All things considered, it’s not surprising that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida went to Ukraine to visit President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday. Kishida was the only leader of a G7 nation that hadn’t yet made the trip, and Japan is chairing the group’s summit in Hiroshima in May. But it is striking when he chose to visit and where he traveled while there.
Arriving in Kyiv on a day when Chinese President Xi Jinping was visiting Vladimir Putin in Moscow was striking. Kishida also visited a mass grave in the town of Bucha to pay respects to the Ukrainian victims of alleged Russian war crimes, offering a none-too-subtle comment on Putin’s recent indictment by the International Criminal Court.
Japan’s foreign ministry said the trip underscored Kishida’s "absolute rejection of Russia's one-sided change to the status quo by invasion and force.” It also follows last week's dramatic breakthrough in Japan’s relations with South Korea, another move signaling that, while Japan must continue to carefully balance its relations with China, Kishida will be more assertive and outspoken on foreign policy than most of Japan’s recent prime ministers.
Could this be the end for Boris Johnson?
Boris is back … in the news! On Wednesday, the former British PM will appear before the parliamentary Privileges Committee to determine whether he deliberately lied to parliament over the Partygate saga. Recap: That’s when Downing Street hosted a string of parties (including some attended by the PM) while millions of Britons were subject to strict COVID lockdowns.
What happens now? It’s up to the committee, made up of MPs from three political parties, to decide how to proceed. It could decide that Johnson didn’t mislead parliament, which is unlikely given the trail of evidence. But even if it judges that he did, punishments could vary. Best case scenario? He’s given a wrist slap. Worst case? He’s suspended from parliament.
But wait, there's more! If the suspension is for more than 10 days, it'll trigger a recall vote in Johnson's district, which only requires 10% of ballots to pass. And that in turn will be followed by a by-election for the same seat ... in which Boris can still run!
What does this mean for the Tories? The rank-and-file is divided between diehard Boris fans, who want Johnson to make another bid for the top job, and those who think he’s a political liability. Either way, it’s bad timing for PM Rishi Sunak, who is trying very hard to convince Britons that the wildly unpopular Conservative Party is more than an agent of chaos.
Israeli government’s settlement policy shift
The far-right Israeli government, a magnet for controversy in recent weeks, has just reversed a 2005 law that ordered the dismantling of four settlements in the northern West Bank.
The Israeli army will no longer have the power to forcibly remove settlers from these areas. (In 2005, former PM Ariel Sharon unilaterally disengaged from settlements in the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank in a move that right-wing ideologues deemed an injustice.)
Tuesday’s move – which the US said it was “extremely troubled” by before the State Department summoned Israel's ambassador to express its dismay – will legalize construction at these outposts, one of which had previously been deemed private Palestinian land by Israel’s High Court. Many right-wing and religious Jews believe that the West Bank is part of greater Israel, according to the Old Testament, and that Jews have a responsibility to settle on the land. Conversely, land seized by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967 is deemed occupied Palestinian territory, according to international law.
Critics say the recent government decision will lead to more violence in the West Bank and is a step towards illegal annexation.
This comes after Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich created a firestorm this week by saying “there is no such thing as a Palestinian people” while standing in front of a map of so-called greater Israel that included … Jordan. (The Hashemite Kingdom, with which Israel has enjoyed a cold peace since 1994, was not pleased.)
Amid fears that the government’s actions are endangering the Abraham Accords, a senior delegation from the United Arab Emirates is set to meet in Jerusalem with President Isaac Herzog to voice its concerns over recent events.
Northern Ireland trade deal ends Brexit but not UK's economic woes
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the UK finally move past Brexit now that a Northern Ireland trade deal has been resolved?
Oh, it's only been, what, six years. My God. And Brexit finally concluded now that Prime Minister Sunak has taken on his own Conservative Party and said, "No, we're just going to finally move on this." And people are sick of the economic challenges, that's, in part, why Truss got washed out so quickly as former PM, and it's also why he had the space to get this done. It means that you're not worried about the so-called hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and therefore, between the UK and the EU, and it means that the Brits can move on. But moving on, of course, still means that they no longer have integration with the world's largest common market, and that means that their performance economically will continue to drag below all of the rest of Europe and the United States, and that's really unfortunate. It's a massive own goal.
Will recent violence in the West Bank escalate into something more?
I expect so. I mean, keep in mind that you have no effective governance for the Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza, you've got an incredibly right-wing coalition government led by Bibi Netanyahu, with only the thinnest of margins to keep the coalition intact, and no interest in moving forward on a two-state solution, and a great deal of interest in taking more land from the Palestinians. I saw an op-ed written in Haaretz, an Israeli center-left newspaper, just the other day, that claimed that Netanyahu was pushing forward a policy apartheid. You don't see that kind of commentary in Israeli newspapers about their own government. This all implies a lot more fighting between Israelis and Palestinians. The Americans inflectionally pushing from the sidelines, nobody really prioritizing the conflict or the issue, either in the region or in Washington, and certainly the Israelis and the Palestinians not having remote political interests try to back down and come to the table. All of that implies a lot more fighting going forward.
Why are Mexicans protesting AMLO's electoral law change as well?
Because he's trying to undermine the influence of the electoral commission. New legislation being put forward, some of it seemed to be against the Constitution and pushed back by the Supreme Court in Mexico, but some of it moving forward. People are angry, just like they have been in lots of countries, lots of democracies, where democratic institutions are getting weakened. For example, in Israel on the Supreme Court, you've seen massive demonstrations. That's basically what you're seeing right now in Mexico, an awful lot of people turning out on the streets, as we saw last weekend, against an effort to undermine checks and balances in a democratic country. The good news is that these democratic institutions are stronger and more resilient than a lot of the headlines would have you believe.
New British Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak waves outside Tory HQ in London.
Can this man save the UK?
On Tuesday, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak became the UK's prime minister after winning the Conservative Party leadership race. But he takes over from lettuce loser Liz Truss amid turbulent times — and faces historic challenges in steering the country out of its current mess.
First, his premiership is hardly a win for diversity. Yes, Sunak, the son of Indian immigrants from East Africa, is the UK’s first non-white and non-Christian British PM, which says a lot about Britain’s changing demographics. (The "official" Twitter account of Larry the Cat, the resident feline at No. 10 Downing St, welcomed his new Hindu boss by wishing everyone a happy Diwali.)
But it's also clear that prominent Tories urged Sunak's only declared rival, former defense chief Penny Mordaunt, to drop out so the contest would be decided by MPs, not rank-and-file Conservative Party members. Indeed, the Tory base — overwhelmingly middle-class, old, and white — rejected Sunak in favor of the paler Truss when the pair battled to replace the disgraced Boris Johnson last summer. Don't be surprised if at least some are not happy about a man of color running the country without their blessing.
Second, right out of the gate Sunak will have to sign off on very unpopular measures to rescue the economy. On Oct. 31, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt — whom the new PM will likely keep in place — will announce a fiscal plan full of tax hikes, spending cuts, and welfare reforms needed to plug a 40 billion pound ($45.18 billion) hole in state coffers. That’ll make it even harder for Brits already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis and sky-high energy prices to get by.
Sunak — an economics wunderkind, ex-finance minister, and Goldman Sachs alum — knows that some belt-tightening is unavoidable to pay for things like subsidizing the cost of soaring electric bills. But voters are less patient and might resent austerity coming from a super-rich leader who married into sumptuous wealth. They won’t care if the markets like Sunak’s economic gameplan if they can’t pay to heat their homes or feed their families.
Third, Sunak will struggle to fix the structural problems created by Brexit. Leaving the EU has made it harder for British companies to do business in what used to be their biggest market. The pandemic aggravated the Brexit fallout by creating widespread shortages, which Johnson and Truss blamed on the post-Brexit trade agreement with Brussels that ruled out a “hard” border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state.
Sunak will face an early test of his Brexit vs. biz credentials on Tuesday, when the House of Commons starts debating a bill that aims to repeal some 2,400 pre-Brexit laws originally drafted to comply with EU regulations. While passing the bill would be a disaster for UK firms that still trade with the bloc, striking it is a non-starter for hardcore Brexiteers.
What's more, although the Tories enjoy a comfortable majority in parliament, less than 40 hard-right rebel MPs could tank Sunak’s agenda by voting down anything they don't like — as Johnson found out multiple times during his tenure as prime minister.
But there's a silver lining: Eurasia Group's top Europe analyst Mujtaba Rahman believes Sunak’s premiership "is very good news for the ability of the UK to rebuild market confidence now and for relations with the EU." He predicts Sunak won't start the trade war with Brussels his predecessor was itching for and will only scrap the EU laws that make sense for British businesses.
"With the backing of 200 out of 357 Tory MPs,” Rahman says, “Sunak is as well-placed as any candidate to begin efforts to unite the party and give them a period of stability — and maybe even the possibility to recover some of their poll deficit against Labour." In other words, maybe, just maybe, Britain’s new PM could avoid an opposition landslide in 2024.
British PM candidate Rishi Sunak walks next to his campaign headquarters in London.
It's Rishi
Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is set to become the UK's next prime minister as the only candidate with support from more than 100 MPs in the Conservative Party leadership race.
Sunak's only declared rival, former defense chief Penny Mordaunt, bowed out right before the 2 pm BST deadline on Monday when it became clear she wouldn't meet the threshold and after many of her supporters urged her to make way for Sunak. The former finance minister will take over from Liz Truss, who threw in the towel last Thursday after the markets — and even the IMF — soured on her plans to cut taxes to stimulate the economy without spending cuts to balance the budget.
Sunak has his work cut out for him: steer the UK through a looming recession in the coming months, aggravated by a cost-of-living crisis and an energy crunch made worse by Russia's war in Ukraine. On the foreign policy front, he'll likely be less combative with the EU, stay the line on Russia-Ukraine, and get tough(er) on China. If he does a decent job, the Tories have a shot at stopping the opposition Labour Party from winning an absolute majority in the next parliamentary election, which should be called sometime in mid-2024.
This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss
Britain on fire
British Prime Minister Liz Truss’ first few weeks in office have been a hot mess.
Markets are in a tizzy, the pound tumbled to a record low against the US dollar, and interest rates have surged. Unsurprisingly, Brits are increasingly disillusioned with their new government and Truss’ Conservative Party.
Truss’ month-long premiership has been dubbed the worst start to a new government in British history. How did she get here and what does this mean for her party — and British politics — going forward?
Growing pains. Much of the recent turmoil is linked to Truss’ contentious “high growth” economic vision, whereby she’s championed a slate of major tax cuts despite Britain’s inflationary woes.
Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng maintain that slashing taxes and deregulation will bring Britain's sluggish economy back from the dead. But they’ve failed to convince barely anyone that this is a hot idea amid a cost-of-living crisis.
As a result, Kwarteng announced at the Conservative Party conference this week that the government would ax a proposal to scrap the UK’s 45% tax rate for high-income earners. That sparked a massive backlash from … the PM’s own party.
But walking it back hasn’t been enough to calm the markets, says Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director for Europe. “The markets will not be calmed until Truss and Kwarteng put more flesh on the bones of their vague promises of supply-side reforms, including immigration, housing, childcare, financial services, agriculture, broadband, and diluting workers’ rights."
Internal Tory criticism has been varied. Some establishment Tory MPs say that Downing Street’s approach is out of touch because it requires the poor to pay for tax cuts for the rich. The party’s debt hawks, meanwhile, say Truss can’t cover the massive borrowing needed to fund the remainder of the tax cuts proposed in the recent “mini” budget.
Indeed, selling tax cuts to a party that is, well, very pro-tax cuts was supposed to be the easy part for Truss, who’s also proposed supply-side reforms – including slashing red tape and ditching a planned corporate tax hike – that could prove even more divisive. For now, at least, Truss says she isn’t backing down on the rest of her proposed agenda.
What Brits want. Truss and Kwarteng claim that they reversed course on the 45% tax rate after “listening” to the British people. But perhaps they need to come in a little closer to hear what British people really think about economic growth. In short: they couldn’t care less.
Around 38% of Brits (compared to 28%) think that “politicians focus too much on economic growth at the expense of other issues,” according to a poll by the Economist. What’s more, by a large margin — 53% to 16% – voters polled agree that “the government should spend more on health care and pensions, even if that means spending less on infrastructure and science.”
Credibility: Easy to lose, hard to get back. Truss’ credibility has taken a beating in recent days, both among the electorate and within her own party, only a third of which backed her bid in the final round of voting to replace former PM Boris Johnson.
Part of the reason for Truss’ diminishing status is the ill-conceived timing of her “go big or go home” pitch. As the war in Ukraine continues to disrupt global energy supplies, sending energy prices through the roof, more than 7 million British households are headed towards fuel poverty this winter, meaning they’ll spend at least 10% of their incomes on energy.
Unveiling an economic package that slashes taxes for those at the top makes for bad optics and even worse politics.
Truss tried to win over hearts and minds during her keynote address Wednesday at the Tory conference — where her options were not great. She didn't backtrack on additional parts of her economic agenda, which could be viewed as an admission of ineptitude. But standing firm on “growth, growth, and growth” might boost the chances of a parliamentary rebellion, with reports that some Tory MPs are already plotting with the Labour Party on how to block parts of the PM’s agenda.
“The chaos makes Truss’ speech [...] even more critical,” says Rahman. “MPs have been so furious at the way the government has gone about its early days that some have talked of Truss being gone by Christmas.”
For now, at least, the chaos continues.