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French protests strengthen the far right & far left
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Venice, Italy, on the French protests and Boris Johnson's Partygate fallout.
What's really happening in France?
It's a very difficult situation. Protests all over the place. The political landscape is fractured. What's going to happen in the National Assembly is everyone's guess. And it is, for the moment, strengthen both the far right and the far left, with the center of French politics imploding. Difficult situation for Macron. Let's hope that he gets through it.
Have we now seen the end of the political career of Boris Johnson in the UK?
That remains to be seen. I don't think there's ever an end to that, more or less. But what has been happening is that Prime Minister Sunak has been able to get control of the Conservative Party. He got through the agreement with the European Union on Northern Ireland, and it was only Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and a couple of the hard liners that voted against. So I think he is now in better control of the party and Boris Johnson is more isolated than he's been for a long time. Good news.
Liz Truss resignation ends most shambolic premiership in UK history
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. Breaking news waits for nobody as I'm in a car on the way to a very early morning flight on the West Coast in the US. But no, Liz Truss has resigned.
We all knew it was coming, but of course, she gets to pick the actual moment of 44 days. Shortest-lived, most shambolic premiership in British history. And I mean, truly coming at a horrible time for the country. The economy is in free fall. Inflation, much worse than in the United States. An energy crunch coming this winter. You thought that the Boris Johnson premiership was bad, and it was certainly clownish. There were lots of scandals. But in terms of policy at least they were much more coherent, if not always correct than Truss' month and a bit.
The big issue, of course, is that she decided to triple down on Brexit. No, we haven't done Brexit well enough. It hasn't really been tried. We haven't focused enough on growth, and so we're going to massively expand every failed policy in the midst of an enormous crisis. We don't have the population or even the Conservative Party behind us. Pretty much every part of her historic effort at an economic and a fiscal policy was defenestrated. That's right, thrown out of a window.
First, the tax cuts on the wealthy and then when her chancellor was forced out, forced to quit, Kwarteng, in also humiliation, but not as much as the prime minister. Let's be clear. It was her plan he was implementing. Jeremy Hunt comes in much more capable and basically undoes every single piece of what she promised she wouldn't U-turn. So a U-turn on a U-turn on a U-turn. They call that a roundabout in the UK. They drive on the wrong side of the road, but nobody gets it done the way Prime Minister Truss had.
We are delighted to see the back of her, of course. No one could possibly be less fit for this job, including the well-feted head of lettuce The Daily Star had been rooting on to outlast the prime minister for over a week now. It was of course a joke at the beginning, but now it's her premiership that gets the last laughs as it were. Likely to be either Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt as the next PM, both Conservative Party challengers for her race that she ended up winning but vastly more competent and capable, more stabilizing in this environment.
The Conservative Party is in its death throes right now. I mean, some 20% approval, and it's just fallen off a cliff since Truss became the premier and it wasn't doing that well before that. But because there's no need for an election anytime soon, the Tories can soldier on. I mean, all of these home secretaries, all of these chancellors, all of these premiers, and then of course, on top of that, the news that we thought was going to be the big news in the UK is the fact that Queen Elizabeth passed away, and there's a new King. Well, it turns out that's old news in UK politics. My thanks to our special relationship that we never refer to it as such anymore across the pond for even for a small period of time making Americans think that is another advanced industrial democracy that can be even more poorly run than the United States.
That's it for me. I hope everyone's well and I'll talk to you all real soon with the next premier.
For more of Ian Bremmer's weekly analyses, subscribe to his GZERO World newsletter at ianbremmer.bulletin.com
Truss resigns in continued Tory meltdown
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
First, what's really happening in the UK?
It's tragic in a way. Once upon a time, the Conservative Party was the natural governing party of the United Kingdom, and we've seen it in a gradual sort of melt down since Brexit with the one prime minister replacing the others, with the one scandal after the others, with the entire party on the verge of some sort of implosion. It has disturbing implications for the governance of the UK, and it is truly tragic. What will be the end of this is anyone's guess. There has to be a new Prime Minister within a week or so, and we can just wish the suffering British people all the best.
Second, how is this new Swedish government doing?
Well, I might be somewhat biased, but I think he's doing well. The prime minister presented his policy declaration on Tuesday, which is widely supported, I think. He has now spent time at NATO headquarters. He's with the European Commission Headquarters. He's part of the European Summit, and is very clear on firm support for Ukraine, firm support for European Union, firm support for transatlantic cooperation, and a realistic and strong economic policy.
Russia may cut off Europe's gas; sanctions will hold
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Russia cutting gas sanctions to Europe lead to the EU lifting sanctions?
I don't see it. I've got to tell you, I do think that Russia will cut all of the gas to Europe by winter. It's where their leverage is, but let's keep in mind these are EU sanctions unanimously supported by all EU member states. That means that individual countries that don't like them don't suddenly break from the EU. Would have to come to that agreement. They're not going to. We've gone through seven rounds now. It's quite something. I do think you could see individual European countries start trying to pressure the Ukrainians to get to the negotiating table. Maybe even accept some loss of territory, which the Ukrainians will be very loathe to do. We'll watch that carefully. But the sanctions, the sanctions are not going away. They're not going away at all.
Does Russia purchasing arms from North Korea show that sanctions are working?
Well, I mean first, this is declassified information from the United States from the CIA, but I wouldn't yet say that we have hard evidence that it is definitely coming from North Korea. So this is a claim that's being made by the US government right now. But look, it's clear that the Russians are using armaments in the field that are very old and that are not working very well and are not up to snuff with what NATO is providing the Ukrainians right now. It's also clear that the Russians have been trying to get a lot of military support from China, and they failed because the Chinese do not want to be tarred with the same brush and the same sanctions brush. Go back to the last question, as the Russians have. Who does that leave? Rogue states like Iran and North Korea. So yeah, I definitely think it shows that sanctions are working.
What changes will the new Prime Minister Liz Truss bring to the United Kingdom?
Well I mean, in the early days, they are facing the worst economic challenges of the entire G7. They have not been engaged in stockpiling energy for the winter. They don't get any energy really from Russia at this point, but they're facing the same supply chain challenges and price challenges that all the other countries are, and they are not set up for. So she's going to put through a 100 billion pound deal to effectively reduce the costs on consumers right now that they're going to have to pay back. They're also planning on reducing corporate tax. I mean, it's a solidly pro-business agenda. Within the realm of the Conservative Party, not surprising in the UK, but the economics from a fiscal perspective are going to be very challenging indeed, with more money going to the people and less money coming into the corporate government coffers. You're going to see less government, but at a time when people are demanding more, government's going to be interesting to watch how that goes. The good news is that she's not going to be interested in pushing too hard on Northern Ireland right now. They don't need a big problem with the EU on top of everything else they're dealing with that. That gets kicked down the road at least a bit.
Conservative Party leadership debate between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak
Is Truss pulling away?
The race to become the UK’s next prime minister has reached a crucial moment.
Though one new poll suggests Rishi Sunak may have cut into her sizeable lead, Liz Truss is still considered the likeliest choice to win the nationwide vote of Conservative Party members to lead the party and serve as PM, at least until the next national elections. A crucial endorsement from former rival Penny Mordaunt has boosted Truss still further.
The final result won’t be announced until September 5, but Sunak knows this week will be critical for the outcome. “Conservative Party voters tend to send their ballot papers back as quickly as possible,” says Eurasia Group’s top Europe analyst Mujtaba Rahman, and senior party officials hoping for cabinet posts can shape voter perceptions of the race with early endorsement of the likely winner – as former leadership rival Tom Tugendhat and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace have recently done. Many of the 160,000 Conservative Party voters, looking ahead to August holidays, may stop paying attention after this week’s head-to-head debate. “Unless Sunak can use public appearances this week and a televised debate on Thursday to slow her momentum,” Rahman says, “Truss looks to be headed for Number 10 [Downing Street].”
The frontrunner: Truss is a talented political veteran who has served as both post-Brexit international trade secretary and foreign minister. Her supporters say she’s “Boris without the baggage,” a team player untainted by the scandals that brought down outgoing prime minister Boris Johnson. Her critics claim she’s a politician without principle. During the 2016 Brexit referendum, she voted for the UK to remain within the EU, but the opportunity to serve in Johnson’s government led her to become a hardline Brexiteer.
That ideological flexibility has so far served her well in this race. “Though she’s the UK’s longest continuously serving cabinet minister,” Rahman notes, “Truss has managed to present herself as the change candidate while casting Sunak as the status-quo option.”
Sunak’s slide: The eldest son of Indian immigrants, best known for serving as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Britain’s chief financial officer, isn’t giving up. His backers say many voters remain persuadable. One recent poll has him well within striking distance, and Truss can still help by committing an unforced error or two.
Though he’s attacked Truss’s crowd-pleasing promises of tax cuts in a time of already high inflation as “fairytale economics,” he’s now proposed tax cuts of his own, though more modest and rolled out over several years. Sunak has also begun to echo her condemnations of “woke nonsense” to broaden his appeal among culture war conservatives. He continues to insist he’s more likely than Truss to lead the Conservative Party to a national election victory.
If Sunak can’t boost his poll numbers soon, he’ll likely face pressure from party heavyweights to quit the race and endorse Truss for the sake of party unity. So far, he shows no signs of searching for a graceful exit, but the sense of urgency within his campaign continues to rise.