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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy awards a Ukrainian service member at a position near a frontline, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 22, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Zelensky’s Bakhmut message, Rishi’s post-Brexit win, Trudeau’s take on Haiti, Ethiopia’s peace progress
Russia and Ukraine score points where they can
Volodymyr Zelensky visited frontline troops in war-ravaged Bakhmut, located in Ukraine’s eastern province of Donetsk, on Wednesday as Russian drones struck across the country. While planning for the trip was surely well underway before Vladimir Putin’s surprise stop in Russian-occupied Mariupol last weekend, the contrast underlined Zelenksy’s signal of defiance.
By appearing in Bakhmut very near the fighting, Zelensky reminded the world that, six months after Putin mobilized 300,000 new Russian soldiers for a deeper advance into Ukraine, even the small city of Bakhmut remains beyond their grasp.
In other war news, Russia has warned it will respond harshly to shipments from the UK to Ukraine of anti-tank munitions made from depleted uranium. Moscow claims this step adds an escalatory nuclear element to the conflict. In response, the UK insists the Russian position is propaganda, that the use of depleted uranium is common in anti-tank weapons, and that it contains nothing that can be used to make nuclear or radiological weapons. Finally, Russia has announced a plan to raise an additional $8 billion in revenue by changing the way oil profits are taxed.
All these stories underscore the reality that, while little has changed on the battlefield, Russians and Ukrainians are still looking for every small advantage they can gain in what looks increasingly like a war of attrition.
Has Brexit got “done” yet?
In a win for PM Rishi Sunak, the British House of Commons on Wednesday passed a reworked post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, which was agreed to last month with the European Commission.
Essentially, the proposal known as the Windsor Framework creates two lanes for trade: a faster-flowing green lane for goods transiting only between Britain and Northern Ireland and a red lane with more rigorous customs checks for goods bound for Ireland and elsewhere in the EU. It is unlikely to come into effect for several months as details are ironed out, officials say.
Still, despite the big margin of victory, more than 20 Tories – including Sunak’s two predecessors Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – voted against the measure, with Johnson saying it would mean that the UK won't be able to fully embrace the benefits of Brexit (what benefits, he didn’t say). It also signals that in the run-up to next year’s general election, Sunak will continue to deal with a vocal Euroskeptic wing within his party.
Meanwhile, six representatives from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party also rejected the vote, suggesting that the DUP would not lift its boycott on the Northern Ireland legislature, which began almost a year ago. The lack of resolution on this front will make for awkward optics as President Joe Biden heads to Belfast next month to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles.
Trudeau’s take on Haiti
President Joe Biden heads north on Thursday for his first presidential visit to Canada, where he and PM Justin Trudeau are expected to discuss a variety of issues, from defense and immigration to trade and Ukraine (see our look at likely agenda items here). But Biden is also expected to make some demands about … Haiti.
The situation in the Caribbean nation has deteriorated in recent months. Police have lost control to local gangs, and more than 200 Haitians were killed in the first half of March alone.
The Biden administration is reluctant to get more involved itself but wants Canada to take the lead in addressing the chaos in Haiti. Why Canada? The country has a long track record as a peacekeeper and has had prior involvement (for better or worse) in Haiti, making it an obvious choice from Washington’s perspective. An uptick in Haitian migrants seeking entry to the US and Canada raises that urgency further.
But Trudeau says that “outside intervention” can’t bring long-term stability to the country, and it’s hard to argue with the historical record on that. Meanwhile, many in Haiti worry that outsiders would merely prop up unelected acting PM Ariel Henry. And it didn’t help that Haiti’s largest newspaper ridiculed the recent deployment of two Canadian ships to patrol the coast.
All of this puts Trudeau in a tough spot: Biden wants him to be a reliable security partner beyond Ukraine, but the political fallout from a failed entanglement in Haiti could be disastrous for him. While the Canadian leader will likely make a commitment of some sort for Haiti, will it be enough to satisfy Biden or change the dynamics in Haiti itself?
*From trade and migration to defense, culture, and technology, the US and Canada need each other more than ever. To meet the moment, GZERO Media is launching GZERO North, a new weekly newsletter offering an insider’s guide to the very latest political, economic, and cultural news shaping both countries. Subscribe today!
Ethiopia, TPLF take steps in tenuous peace
The Ethiopian government is removing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from its list of terrorist organizations, part of a peace deal with the rebel group signed last November. The decision moves the country closer to what observers hope is an enduring peace after a brutal two-year civil war that has claimed an estimated 600,000 lives.
The situation is very delicate. The agreements don’t include all of the various combatants and are vague about who controls certain disputed territories. And while all sides reportedly committed war crimes, many Tigrayans believe the deal doesn’t hold the Ethiopian federal government accountable. PM Abiy Ahmed’s resistance to a UN investigation inspires little hope.
Still, the momentum is towards peace, for now. Economic interests are part of the reason why. Ethiopia is in bad shape, as the country is wracked by famine, drought, and an estimated reconstruction price tag of $20 billion. A lasting peace would enable Ethiopia to reopen two-year-old talks with the IMF on a $26 billion loan restructuring plan, which was interrupted by the war. Still, with so much bad blood – will these incentives be enough to bind the former combatants to a durable peace? All parties must still tread very carefully …
And the (geopolitical) Oscar goes to …
It's the 95th Academy Awards on Sunday, and we all know that the Oscars often get political. You can expect speeches to reference Russia's war in Ukraine and, of course, US culture-war issues like identity politics. But in this era of political hyper-polarization in America and beyond, we’ve got our own awards to give out.
Here are our picks for a few of the best performances of the past 12 months.
Best Documentary Feature: "The Little Short," by El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, based on his get-rich-quick bestseller "Bukele's Guide to Wealth and Fame in Crypto Markets."
Best Cameo/Actress in a Limited TV Miniseries:Liz Truss as British PM.
Lifetime Achievement: Former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for "My Trip to Taipei," a tour de force in DNGAF about the geopolitical consequences of my actions.
Best Costume Design: US Rep. (and alleged serial liar) George Santos (R-NY) as a drag queen in Brazil.
Best Editing: Xi Jinping for ending zero-COVID in China — and all references to it too.
Best Special Effects: The US/Russia/pro-Ukrainian group/we'll-never-know-who for the Nord Stream pipeline explosion.
Best Sound Editing in Parliament/Exit From the Party: Former New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern.
Best Screenplay/Cinematography: C-SPAN for "The House Speaker Fight," an unexpectedly riveting story of failed votes, failed fistfights, and failed leadership in the US Congress.
Best Remake: Jair Bolsonaro, director of the 8 de Janeiro reboot of January 6.
Best Picture: "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Balloon," a Kubrick-esque Cold War 2.0 satire featuring Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, and a floating weapon of mass puns.
2022: The year of fleeting political power & the will of the people
From the rise and fall of the Roman Empire to the blink-of-an-eye tenure of British PM Liz Truss, political power is fleeting.
Just look at Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
Putin, who started 2022 as one of the most powerful leaders in the world, in many ways has now become a global pariah.
Zelensky, a former comedian few trusted with a crisis, is now TIME Magazine's Person of the Year.
It's also been a year of twists and turns for two other world leaders: Xi Jinping and Joe Biden.
Watch the GZERO World episode: On Russia’s reckoning, China’s vulnerability & US democracy’s Dunkirk
Tony Blair: 3 challenges will define geopolitics in the near future
Over 48 hours in early September, the United Kingdom got a new prime minister and a new monarch. Liz Truss and Charles III take over at a turbulent time in British politics: UK is suffering from a stagnant economy, sky-high energy prices aggravated by Russia's war in Ukraine, more Brexit fallout with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol, and Scots demanding a fresh independence vote.
(Note: This interview appeared as part of an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Upheaval in UK: the sobering challenges facing new PM Truss & new King Charles III, on October 3, 2022, prior to Liz Truss' resignation as prime minister.)
In an in-depth interview for GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks about all of these issues with former prime minister Tony Blair, who recalls what it was like to meet Queen Elizabeth II for the first time. (His first impression: deep respect for her historical experience.)
To those who view the monarchy as an outdated institution, he says: don't worry, it's (pretty) safe. How about the economy? Blair believes there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next year or two if Truss insists on big tax cuts and big borrowing.
Blair, who wanted UK to remain in the EU, doesn't think Brexit will end up fragmenting the country. But he admits Brexit has given fresh impetus to both Scottish nationalists and those who want a united Republic of Ireland.
For Blair, three challenges will define geopolitics in the near future: the Western relationship with China, making democracy more effective, and harnessing the tech revolution. How can we address them? “We need to return to the center to match challenges that'll be more practical than ideological,” he says.
Rishi Sunak vs UK economic crisis
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In 60 Seconds.
Can new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak fix the United Kingdom?
No. Fix is aggressive. Right? But can he stabilize it? I think he can move in that direction, certainly not in the next few months because you know the economic crisis is real. The hole is deep. Energy prices are massive, and the UK's not prepared for it. But the orientation of UK fiscal policy is going to be very much more in line with what the markets want. They have been punishing the UK and Liz Truss dramatically from all of these. The giveaways that were being planned, many to the rich, and none of which were going to be funded. A more constrained fiscal environment is what Rishi is going to be putting in place. Of course, the UK population may not be happy about that at all. What he can do for his own future and the Conservative Party is a much bigger hole, frankly, than where the UK is going.
With the DOJ charging Chinese operatives with espionage, what signal is the US sending Xi Jinping?
The signal is that on the technology front, the Americans are going to play hardball, whether it's Huawei or 5G or semiconductors or robotics. Any area that is considered to be contiguous with or overlapping national security, the Americans are going to promote national champions in the US and among allies, and are going to decouple aggressively from the Chinese. We saw some of this under Donald Trump. We're seeing more of it under Joe Biden. On balance, you'd have to say that the Biden foreign policy towards China is a little bit more hawkish than the Trump foreign policy towards China. A lot of people wouldn't have expected that. It is true that Biden has tried to take some of the Trump era tariffs off because they're inflationary, but he's actually failed in getting that done because politically it's seen as inexpedient with the midterms looking tight.
Will the presidential election in Brazil be contested no matter the result?
Well, I wouldn't say no matter the result, because of course Bolsonaro could win and Lula will accept the outcome if Bolsonaro wins the election. He's accepted three losses before. He can accept a fourth. The question is, will Bolsonaro accept if Lula wins? And of course, that's more likely. Lula's ahead by three to four points right now. The answer is probably not, but I don't think it matters very much. You could easily have violence, of course, in some regional capitals. You could have the truckers, you could have bikers and others come out into the streets, and I suspect Bolsonaro will call on some of that. The fact that the judiciary in Brazil is not particularly independent, putting their finger on the scale in favor of Lula doesn't help in this regard. But ultimately, the military, Congress, I mean all the major institutions in Brazil have no interest in moving down an undoing and unwinding of their democracy. So if Bolsonaro goes in that direction, he will have his base, but basically nobody else, and we'll move on to a transition, a Democratic transition in Brazil. Always nice to see those.
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New British Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak waves outside Tory HQ in London.
Can this man save the UK?
On Tuesday, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak became the UK's prime minister after winning the Conservative Party leadership race. But he takes over from lettuce loser Liz Truss amid turbulent times — and faces historic challenges in steering the country out of its current mess.
First, his premiership is hardly a win for diversity. Yes, Sunak, the son of Indian immigrants from East Africa, is the UK’s first non-white and non-Christian British PM, which says a lot about Britain’s changing demographics. (The "official" Twitter account of Larry the Cat, the resident feline at No. 10 Downing St, welcomed his new Hindu boss by wishing everyone a happy Diwali.)
But it's also clear that prominent Tories urged Sunak's only declared rival, former defense chief Penny Mordaunt, to drop out so the contest would be decided by MPs, not rank-and-file Conservative Party members. Indeed, the Tory base — overwhelmingly middle-class, old, and white — rejected Sunak in favor of the paler Truss when the pair battled to replace the disgraced Boris Johnson last summer. Don't be surprised if at least some are not happy about a man of color running the country without their blessing.
Second, right out of the gate Sunak will have to sign off on very unpopular measures to rescue the economy. On Oct. 31, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt — whom the new PM will likely keep in place — will announce a fiscal plan full of tax hikes, spending cuts, and welfare reforms needed to plug a 40 billion pound ($45.18 billion) hole in state coffers. That’ll make it even harder for Brits already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis and sky-high energy prices to get by.
Sunak — an economics wunderkind, ex-finance minister, and Goldman Sachs alum — knows that some belt-tightening is unavoidable to pay for things like subsidizing the cost of soaring electric bills. But voters are less patient and might resent austerity coming from a super-rich leader who married into sumptuous wealth. They won’t care if the markets like Sunak’s economic gameplan if they can’t pay to heat their homes or feed their families.
Third, Sunak will struggle to fix the structural problems created by Brexit. Leaving the EU has made it harder for British companies to do business in what used to be their biggest market. The pandemic aggravated the Brexit fallout by creating widespread shortages, which Johnson and Truss blamed on the post-Brexit trade agreement with Brussels that ruled out a “hard” border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state.
Sunak will face an early test of his Brexit vs. biz credentials on Tuesday, when the House of Commons starts debating a bill that aims to repeal some 2,400 pre-Brexit laws originally drafted to comply with EU regulations. While passing the bill would be a disaster for UK firms that still trade with the bloc, striking it is a non-starter for hardcore Brexiteers.
What's more, although the Tories enjoy a comfortable majority in parliament, less than 40 hard-right rebel MPs could tank Sunak’s agenda by voting down anything they don't like — as Johnson found out multiple times during his tenure as prime minister.
But there's a silver lining: Eurasia Group's top Europe analyst Mujtaba Rahman believes Sunak’s premiership "is very good news for the ability of the UK to rebuild market confidence now and for relations with the EU." He predicts Sunak won't start the trade war with Brussels his predecessor was itching for and will only scrap the EU laws that make sense for British businesses.
"With the backing of 200 out of 357 Tory MPs,” Rahman says, “Sunak is as well-placed as any candidate to begin efforts to unite the party and give them a period of stability — and maybe even the possibility to recover some of their poll deficit against Labour." In other words, maybe, just maybe, Britain’s new PM could avoid an opposition landslide in 2024.
British PM candidate Rishi Sunak walks next to his campaign headquarters in London.
It's Rishi
Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is set to become the UK's next prime minister as the only candidate with support from more than 100 MPs in the Conservative Party leadership race.
Sunak's only declared rival, former defense chief Penny Mordaunt, bowed out right before the 2 pm BST deadline on Monday when it became clear she wouldn't meet the threshold and after many of her supporters urged her to make way for Sunak. The former finance minister will take over from Liz Truss, who threw in the towel last Thursday after the markets — and even the IMF — soured on her plans to cut taxes to stimulate the economy without spending cuts to balance the budget.
Sunak has his work cut out for him: steer the UK through a looming recession in the coming months, aggravated by a cost-of-living crisis and an energy crunch made worse by Russia's war in Ukraine. On the foreign policy front, he'll likely be less combative with the EU, stay the line on Russia-Ukraine, and get tough(er) on China. If he does a decent job, the Tories have a shot at stopping the opposition Labour Party from winning an absolute majority in the next parliamentary election, which should be called sometime in mid-2024.
This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
A combination picture shows Chinese leaders Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi.
What We’re Watching: Xi the all-powerful, Sunak the frontrunner, Shoigu the (nuclear) warmonger
All the secretary-general’s men
As expected, Xi Jinping was "re-elected" to a third term as secretary-general of China's ruling Communist Party on Sunday, a day after its 20th Congress wrapped up in Beijing. (The tightly scripted event had a bit of drama when his predecessor, Hu Jintao, was escorted out for “health reasons” as Xi looked on.) More importantly, the CCP unveiled its new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, now made up entirely of Xi loyalists.
Who's in and who's out? The biggest name — other than Xi himself — is Shanghai party boss Li Qiang, who walked onto the red carpet in the Great Hall of the People right after Xi, which means he's now No. 2 in the CCP hierarchy and will likely be appointed premier in March. Li will replace current Premier Li Keqiang (no relation), who who retired before reaching the mandatory age of 70 and was removed from China's top decision-making body. Interestingly, Li Qiang was promoted by Xi despite having no nationwide executive experience and bungling Shanghai's COVID lockdown earlier this year. He’s been entrusted with running the economy at a time of the slowest growth China has seen for decades — in no small part due to Xi refusing to budge on zero-COVID.
What does this mean for Xi and for China? It's "a clean sweep for Xi allies and a consolidation of power unseen since the Mao era," tweeted Eurasia Group senior China analyst Neil Thomas. In other words, China's leader will be entirely surrounded by yes-men until the next party congress in 2027. On the one hand, that'll allow Xi to double down on policies that he thinks are ultimately good for China, such as "common prosperity" to make economic growth more equitable. On the other, Xi will be on the hook if things go south — as they famously did the last time China was under tight one-man rule.
Sunak leads race to replace Truss
Britain’s Conservatives are off to the races — again — this time to replace outgoing Prime Minister Liz Truss. Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced Sunday his second run for the top job and has already clinched the support of almost 180 MPs, well over the 100-MP threshold set by the Tories. In a last-minute twist, he won’t face off against his old boss Boris Johnson, after the ignominiously ousted PM unexpectedly dropped out of the race. Sunak’s only declared rival is now former defense chief Penny Mordaunt, who barely has 25 MPs supporting her but hopes some Johnson fans will switch to her side. Still, the UK seems to be going through its own It’s the economy, stupid moment of truth: ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Britain’s economic outlook from “stable” to “negative,” citing instability and high inflation. And in a rare show of bureaucratic discontent, Whitehall officials called out the upcoming spending cuts by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt — the UK’s fourth finance minister in as many months. The way things are going, there might be a fifth chancellor soon after Oct. 31, when Hunt delivers his “Halloween Speech” to unveil his new fiscal plan to the House of Commons — or is it the House of Horrors?
Is Russia playing “dirty”?
The lines of communication are open, but the topics are grim. On Friday and Sunday, for the first time since May, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian colleague Sergei Shoigu. Their topics of discussion were red lines and nukes, with the Biden administration seeking information on what might provoke a Russian nuclear attack in Ukraine. In weekend discussions with NATO counterparts, meanwhile, Shoigu flagged that Ukraine might be planning to use a “dirty bomb” — a conventional blast containing radioactive material. Russia’s state-owned news agency said the purpose would be to accuse Russia of using weapons of mass destruction and to turn the world against Moscow. The US National Security Council rejected the allegations as “transparently false.” Kyiv also pushed back, noting that it has no such weapons. “Russians often accuse others of what they plan themselves,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the allegations mean “Russia has already prepared all this” and encouraged the world to push back in the “toughest possible way.”This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.