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Argentina's President Javier Milei gestures during the Atreju political meeting organized by the young militants of Italian right-wing party Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia) at Circo Massimo in Rome.
Big milestone for Argentina’s radical president: Economy escapes recession
A year ago, Argentina’s eccentric, wolverine-haired, “anarcho-libertarian” president Javier MIlei took office with a chainsaw and a plan: to tackle the country’s triple-digit inflation and chronic debt problems, he would hack government spending to pieces — and it seems to be working.
Latin America’s third largest economy has emerged from recession for the first time since the third quarter of 2023, with GDP growing nearly 4% since then. Month-on-month inflation has plunged from 25% last December to just 2.4% a month ago.
How’d he do it? Since coming to office, Milei has scrapped more than half of the government ministries, slashed spending on public salaries, devalued the currency, and put pension growth in a chokehold.
The subsequent return to growth is a vindication for Milei, whose state-chopping has won him plaudits from financial markets and the International Monetary Fund. It’s also earned glowing admiration from Donald Trump who envisions a similar gutting of the US Federal government (though his protectionist impulses contrast with Milei’s purer market fundamentalism).
Milei’s approach has been painful for many. The percentage of Argentines living in poverty has surged by 13 percentage points to 53% since he took office. Milei’s bet is that this is merely short term pain. He could yet be right: experts see the economy expanding by 5% next year after contracting 3% in 2024. With mid-term elections approaching in 2025, we’ll soon learn how most ordinary Argentines feel about Milei’s methodical massacres.A woman uses a phone next to a fighter of the ruling Syrian body, after members of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in the Damascus old city, Syria, December 12, 2024.
Trump may follow Biden's line on Syria
On Saturday, not long after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad fled to Russia, Donald Trumpwrote — in all caps — that the United States should stay out of Syria: “This is not our fight,” he wrote. “Let it play out. Do not get involved.”
Trump, Vice-President-elect JD Vance, and Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as Director of National Intelligence, are all skeptical of American military involvement in the Middle East. But experts think the next US administration will end up taking a position similar to the one taken by President Joe Biden, mostly because it is in the interest of the United States to prevent Syria from becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.
Successful rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is a former al-Qaida fighter, but he has signaled that he has no interest in transnational terrorism and has sought to give assurances to Druze, Christians, and Alawite religious minorities that the new government of Syria will respect their rights.
Secretary of State Antony Blinkenhas offered to recognize Golani’s new government if he lives up to his promises. At the same time, the US military has been carrying out airstrikes against remnants of the Islamic State terrorist group. Two congressmen have written to Blinken asking him to ease US sanctions on Syria to give the new government a chance to rebuild the economy.
Experts think that although Trump might like to wash his hands of the whole country, American interests will likely require the US government to maintain troops in Syria, at least in the short term. He ordered the withdrawal of US troops from the region during his first term and then reversed his decision when confronted by the facts on the ground.
What to expect for second-quarter earnings season; H2 2020 outlook
Betty Liu, Executive Vice Chairman for NYSE Group, provides her perspective:
What are analysts expecting, going to the second quarter earnings season?
So, this earnings season has just started this past week, you saw banks kick off their reports. And as you can well imagine, analyst estimates are pretty much all over the place. And part of that is because a good number of companies did not provide guidance. Now, according to some estimates, some analysts estimates, we could see an earnings season decline or earnings decline as much as 44% this time around. That would be one of the biggest declines since 2008, the prior crisis.
What is the outlook for the second half of 2020?
Well, that's the million-dollar question. What is going to happen the rest of the year? So, nobody knows, right? But there's a few factors that we're going to be watching to see how companies perform. One is going to be watching the number of coronavirus cases across the country. And the second, of course, is watching the results of the November presidential elections.