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Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia
Ukraine's progress in war | Europe In: 60 | GZERO Media

Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia

Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.

How is Ukraine doing in the war?

Well, they seem to be making incremental gains on the ground in the south of Ukraine against the Russian occupation forces. But most spectacular, of course, have been the successes they've had with long-range drone attacks in big numbers, where they have been successful in attacking Russian air bases 700 kilometers away from the territory of Ukraine, causing significant damage to significant Russian assets. That's a new dimension of the war. And it shows that Ukraine has the ability to develop new technology on its own, independent of the very important support that they're getting from Europe and from the United States.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.

Reuters

Will Ukraine hold an election in the middle of a war?

How do you hold elections in the middle of a war? As if he doesn't have enough on his plate, that’s the latest question plaguing Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky amid renewed attention on Ukraine’s presidential vote, which is set to take place in March 2024.

Asked on Monday whether he backs holding the vote, Zelensky said he didbut on the condition that the US and EU provide sufficient support to help them pull it off. Zelensky also pointed out that state law bans the holding of elections during wartime, meaning that parliament would have to tweak the country’s electoral code.

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Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink
Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink

In the year and a half since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has felt like the momentum has consistently been with Ukraine and its Western backers. But is that beginning to change? Months into the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive, Kyiv has little to show for its military push. So why hasn't it been more effective?

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Podcast: Is Ukraine's counteroffensive failing?

Transcript

Listen: A year and a half after Russia’s invasion, we’re looking at the state of war in Ukraine on the GZERO World Podcast. Why hasn’t Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive been more effective? Or is the tide about to turn?

Things are going more slowly and less successfully than NATO commanders had hoped and expected, Ian Bremmer explains, based on his conversations with high-ranking officials. And although it looks like Ukraine’s military has recently launched a major thrust towards the south towards the Sea of Asov, the tide of war has yet to meaningfully change.

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Ukrainian marines attend military drills in the Donetsk region.

REUTERS/Sofiia Gatilova

Ukraine ups the ante

On Wednesday, The New York Times’ Eric Schmitt reported that the “main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast,” according to two Pentagon officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

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Ukrainian offensive tests Russian defenses
Ukrainian offensive tests Russian defenses | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Ukrainian offensive tests Russian defenses

How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going? Pro-democracy opposition parties swept the Thai elections. Will they be allowed to govern? Is Assad's invitation to COP28 a sign of Syria's return to the global stage? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going?

Well, it's just started. It's a little premature to ask me that question. Right now you're looking at probing attacks, artillery for the Ukrainians to try to assess where Russian defenses might be weakest so that when Zelensky gives the order for the full counteroffensive, it's starting, but not with masses of troops, that it's most likely to succeed. There is general optimism right now. The Russians are dug in along three lines of defense in southeast Ukraine. There's pretty significant optimism the Ukrainians will be able to break through one, at least maybe two of those lines of defense, which puts them in striking distance of artillery of the coast of the Sea of Azov, which means being able to threaten the land bridge to Crimea. That's a pretty big deal. It improves Ukraine's ability to negotiate if that happens after the counteroffensive is over.

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Why neither NATO nor Russia wants to escalate war in Ukraine
Why neither NATO nor Russia wants to escalate war in Ukraine | GZERO World

Why neither NATO nor Russia wants to escalate war in Ukraine

Don't use the "e" word. NATO's increased military support of Ukraine is not an escalation, says Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană, it is a "dynamic adjustment." Geoană spoke to Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering of world leaders, diplomats, and security experts in the Bavarian city. "The fundamental job of NATO is to defend allies, territory, population," Geoană told Ian Bremmer, "there's no escalation, there is a changing nature of the battlefield, and it's normal."

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NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war
NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war | GZERO World

NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war

In 2022, NATO got its groove back. Sweden and Finland applied for membership after decades of thinking it was safer to stay neutral. Germany announced a huge increase in defense spending, and walked back their own red line of sending weapons to conflict zones. In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and only 3 of NATO’s then-28 members met the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Now, nine countries do, and 19 more have plans to hit 2% by 2024. Still, it’s a hard argument to make as global inflation limits the buying power of those military budgets.

Ian Bremmer spoke with NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană about the lessons learned during year one of the war and what comes next. Despite the cohesion, there’s tension brewing: NATO members have very different ideas about how far to go in supporting Ukraine; they blame each other for delays in weapon deliveries; And Turkey, of course, still holding up Finland and Sweden’s membership; no to mention there’s a limit to global trust and information sharing.

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