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Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
How is Ukraine doing in the war?
Well, they seem to be making incremental gains on the ground in the south of Ukraine against the Russian occupation forces. But most spectacular, of course, have been the successes they've had with long-range drone attacks in big numbers, where they have been successful in attacking Russian air bases 700 kilometers away from the territory of Ukraine, causing significant damage to significant Russian assets. That's a new dimension of the war. And it shows that Ukraine has the ability to develop new technology on its own, independent of the very important support that they're getting from Europe and from the United States.
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President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.
Will Ukraine hold an election in the middle of a war?
How do you hold elections in the middle of a war? As if he doesn't have enough on his plate, that’s the latest question plaguing Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky amid renewed attention on Ukraine’s presidential vote, which is set to take place in March 2024.
Asked on Monday whether he backs holding the vote, Zelensky said he didbut on the condition that the US and EU provide sufficient support to help them pull it off. Zelensky also pointed out that state law bans the holding of elections during wartime, meaning that parliament would have to tweak the country’s electoral code.
This decision would need to be made pretty damn fast, and it could indeed deepen divisions in the US and prove to be a logistical nightmare.
Zelensky says that any resources needed to ensure voter access – including for 7 million refugees displaced by the war as well as thousands of troops on the frontlines – should come from international partners. He argues that Ukraine doesn’t have the funds or the infrastructure to oversee such a mammoth operation and that he wouldn’t back diverting state funds away from the grueling war effort.
But this comes at a time when US support for ongoing aid to Ukraine is already waning and just as Americans will be focused on their own extremely messy presidential election. Convincing the US electorate that Kyiv needs more funds to conduct an election – on top of what’s already been pledged – will be a tall order.
What’s more, a vote held during wartime – which raises concerns about access, fairness, and security – also gives fodder to regimes that want to delegitimize the Ukrainian state and its government.
For Zelensky, this is a pivotal moment. Clad solely in olive green military fatigues over the past 18 months, he’s been trying to convince Western partners of two key things: that Ukraine can win the war and that he’s serious about rooting out corruption from state institutions. This decision will impact the perceptions of both.
Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink
In the year and a half since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has felt like the momentum has consistently been with Ukraine and its Western backers. But is that beginning to change? Months into the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive, Kyiv has little to show for its military push. So why hasn't it been more effective?
While it looks like Ukraine’s military has recently launched a major thrust towards the south towards the Sea of Azov, the tide of war has yet to meaningfully change. So why haven’t the Ukrainians managed to do more, and to do it faster? And if a military resolution to the conflict isn’t coming any time soon, could a diplomatic solution be back on the table? Ian Bremmer addresses these questions with former US ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch on GZERO World.
The two discuss a range of topics, from the state of the counteroffensive to whether a diplomatic resolution to the war is still possible. They also look back at Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed--or aborted, or curtailed--coup. Yovanovitch, for one, doesn't think that story is over by a long shot.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Podcast: Is Ukraine's counteroffensive failing?
Listen: A year and a half after Russia’s invasion, we’re looking at the state of war in Ukraine on the GZERO World Podcast. Why hasn’t Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive been more effective? Or is the tide about to turn?
Things are going more slowly and less successfully than NATO commanders had hoped and expected, Ian Bremmer explains, based on his conversations with high-ranking officials. And although it looks like Ukraine’s military has recently launched a major thrust towards the south towards the Sea of Asov, the tide of war has yet to meaningfully change.
So what explains the disappointing results thus far? Is the West not doing enough to provide Ukrainian support? And if a military resolution to the conflict isn’t coming any time soon, could a diplomatic solution be back on the table? To discuss all that and more, Ian is joined by former US ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch.
Ukrainian marines attend military drills in the Donetsk region.
Ukraine ups the ante
On Wednesday, The New York Times’ Eric Schmitt reported that the “main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast,” according to two Pentagon officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
These US sources said that thousands of reinforcements, until recently held in reserve, are now “pouring into the grinding battle” along a front in the country’s southeast. This description squares with Wednesday's reports from the battlefield from both Ukrainian and Russian sources.
Whether Ukrainian forces succeed or fail to post strategically important battlefield gains, this is potentially a crucial moment in the war.
In recent weeks, both public pronouncements and private grumbling, particularly in Europe and the United States, have expressed mounting Western frustration with the so-far slow pace of Ukraine’s attacks on entrenched Russian positions. That’s a signal that Ukraine is failing to achieve the prime objective of its counteroffensive: To persuade US and European backers that Ukrainian forces can use Western weapons and training to eventually win the war.
These first reports of a major Ukrainian push toward Russian defenses deeper into the country’s southeast may prove the counteroffensive’s first true test. Ukrainian officials have reportedly told Washington privately that this push should last “one to three weeks.”
The bottom line: By raising hopes and expectations again for major imminent progress on the battlefield, the counteroffensive’s near-term stakes now appear to have climbed much higher.
Ukrainian offensive tests Russian defenses
How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going? Pro-democracy opposition parties swept the Thai elections. Will they be allowed to govern? Is Assad's invitation to COP28 a sign of Syria's return to the global stage? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going?
Well, it's just started. It's a little premature to ask me that question. Right now you're looking at probing attacks, artillery for the Ukrainians to try to assess where Russian defenses might be weakest so that when Zelensky gives the order for the full counteroffensive, it's starting, but not with masses of troops, that it's most likely to succeed. There is general optimism right now. The Russians are dug in along three lines of defense in southeast Ukraine. There's pretty significant optimism the Ukrainians will be able to break through one, at least maybe two of those lines of defense, which puts them in striking distance of artillery of the coast of the Sea of Azov, which means being able to threaten the land bridge to Crimea. That's a pretty big deal. It improves Ukraine's ability to negotiate if that happens after the counteroffensive is over.
Pro-democracy opposition parties swept the Thai elections. Will they be allowed to govern?
Well, the elections were free. They were fair, but the system structurally advantages the military and the pro-military parties and electors. The military gets to determine basically a large percentage of those people that form a government. What that means is that even with a massive win for the pro-democracy opposition, the possibility that they form a government is pretty much a coin flip. It's about 50-50 right now. The structural disadvantages for pro-democracy forces in Thailand are that great. It's going to be a very hard-fought few weeks and we'll see where it goes, but I would not yet hold my breath that this is a meaningful transition election in Thailand. Still though, there's an opportunity, as there isn't in Turkey, as Erdogan is likely to win, very likely to win is in the second round.
Is Assad's invitation to COP28 a sign of Syria's return to the global stage?
I don't know if I'd say the global stage. Remember this is in the Emirates. It's Abu Dhabi. There has been a re-engagement of the Gulf States with Syria's Bashar al-Assad. That does not change the way the United States is feeling about Assad, or most of the Europeans for that matter. But despite the red line and the whole, "Assad must go," that President Obama once said, and Obama's well gone, Assad is still there and Assad is now increasingly someone that you engage with internationally. It is harder to say no to rogue states when other countries are prepared to deal. Hey, Venezuela is now pumping more oil and Chevron's licenses have been re-approved. Any other gas exploration is now happening. Same Maduro, but the United States with the war in Russia going on and with Ukraine is saying, "Hey, we need to work with these guys." Basically what we're seeing is that more and more tolerance for countries and rogues that act in despicable impunity, but nonetheless, less capacity, less willingness of the world to bring them to bear, and Assad is a piece of that.
Why neither NATO nor Russia wants to escalate war in Ukraine
Don't use the "e" word. NATO's increased military support of Ukraine is not an escalation, says Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană, it is a "dynamic adjustment." Geoană spoke to Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering of world leaders, diplomats, and security experts in the Bavarian city. "The fundamental job of NATO is to defend allies, territory, population," Geoană told Ian Bremmer, "there's no escalation, there is a changing nature of the battlefield, and it's normal."
The two discussed the war a year after Russia's invasion, how far Western support for Ukraine should go, and how soon NATO might accept Ukraine as a full-fledged member of the alliance. Catch GZERO's full interview with Deputy Secretary Geoana on this week's episode of "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer," airing on US public television stations nationwide. Check local listings.
NATO's confidence as Ukraine enters year 2 of war
In 2022, NATO got its groove back. Sweden and Finland applied for membership after decades of thinking it was safer to stay neutral. Germany announced a huge increase in defense spending, and walked back their own red line of sending weapons to conflict zones. In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and only 3 of NATO’s then-28 members met the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Now, nine countries do, and 19 more have plans to hit 2% by 2024. Still, it’s a hard argument to make as global inflation limits the buying power of those military budgets.
Ian Bremmer spoke with NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană about the lessons learned during year one of the war and what comes next. Despite the cohesion, there’s tension brewing: NATO members have very different ideas about how far to go in supporting Ukraine; they blame each other for delays in weapon deliveries; And Turkey, of course, still holding up Finland and Sweden’s membership; no to mention there’s a limit to global trust and information sharing.
Watch the interview on this week's episode of "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer," airing on US public television stations nationwide. Check your local listings.
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