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Jess Frampton

Ukraine’s counteroffensive: Prospects for success, unity, and peace

I haven’t written about the war in Ukraine in a while, largely because not much has changed since my last dispatch on the subject 10 weeks ago. But now that we’re seeing signs that the start of the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive is nearing, it’s time for me to tell you how I think it’s going to go and what it’ll mean for the trajectory of the war.

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Xi plays peace broker | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Xi plays peace broker

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take from Los Angeles of all places, but I want to talk about the latest, with the war in Ukraine.

We have seen a little bit more fighting over the last week, the Ukrainians facing more bombing against its civilians and unfortunately significant numbers dead, including children. And the Ukrainians with a drone attack against an energy and oil depot in Crimea with some pretty big explosions and damage to infrastructure presently held illegally by the Russians. In between all that, the big news of the week was Xi Jinping, President of China, finally belatedly, but importantly reaching out directly to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. They spoke for an hour. It was, and be sure this was planned on the anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, and coming out of it, the Chinese telling Zelenskyy that they would very much support doing a lot to directly provide economic support for reconstruction, but in return, they want to see a ceasefire: in other words, ending this war as soon as possible.

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Xi’s “peace” plan for Ukraine: China “wins”

When Xi Jinping, on his first trip to Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine, continues his meetings with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, expect China's leader to talk a big game on "peace." It won’t be the type of peace that Ukraine — or the West — wants.

Yet, as far as Beijing is concerned, that’s beside the point.

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Jess Frampton

Washington watches as Beijing bargains

China announced last Friday it had brokered a deal to restore diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia for the first time in seven years. Beijing will also reportedly host a summit later this year, bringing together representatives from Iran and the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council. Like all early stage diplomatic breakthroughs, this one remains fragile. It will take at least two months to hammer out details, and Iranians and Saudis aren’t about to become fast friends. But President Xi Jinping wouldn’t trumpet this news unless he believed all relevant parties were sincerely interested in an agreement of substance.

This is something Joe Biden might call a “big F deal.”

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Putin Pulling Out of START Can Further Break US-Russia Relationship | World In :60 | GZERO Media

China to shake up Russia-Ukraine war

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

How big of a deal is Russia pulling out of New START?

Well, this is of course is the nuclear agreement that the Americans and others have already been accusing the Russians not of being in compliance with. The nature, of course, of the US-Russia relationship right now is completely broken. There's no high level engagement or diplomacy. It is notable that Putin said in his annual State of the Union speech, the one that he essentially canceled last year, that he is suspending Russian participation in START, but not withdrawing. I don't think it's a nothingburger. I think it matters because generally nuclear temperatures have been going up over the past months, but this is not a particularly large issue.

Is China's potential support of Russia in Ukraine a "red line" for the West?

Yes, this is a much bigger issue. We are talking about a peace deal that the Chinese are saying that they're going to announce in short order. President Xi planning a big speech on February 24th, which is the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion. That's unprecedented for China to suddenly be taking a leadership role, a public leadership role, on an issue that is not of primary national security concern to the Chinese self.

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G-20 Summit: More Alignment Between US & Allies on Global Stage | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Can China lead on Russia/Ukraine peace?

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Was the G-20 a success?

Not really, in the sense that there was no effective communique, the ball was not moved on serious needles as a G-20. On the other hand, the G-7 that met within the G-20 was certainly a success. Following on all these Russian attacks on Ukraine, you have even ever more alignment between the United States and its allies on the global stage. That's certainly a useful thing to maintain, especially as people are saying, "Oh, it's going to crumble. Oh, they're going to peel off."

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Ukraine’s Stronger Hand & Putin’s Missed Opportunity | GZERO World

Ukraine’s stronger hand and Putin’s missed opportunity

The Russian military is terrorizing local populations in in eastern Ukraine to force President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate after Russia has seized territory in the Donbas region.

Will it work? Perhaps, but Ukraine's objectives have changed, US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.

A month ago, President Volodymyr Zelensky was willing to talk about Ukrainian neutrality and even the size of the country's military.

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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses Russian and Ukrainian negotiators before their face-to-face talks in Istanbul.

Murat Cetinmuhurdar via REUTERS

Ukraine peace talks: optimism vs. skepticism

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators talked peace in Istanbul on Tuesday. Should we be optimistic or skeptical?

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