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Why Trump-Putin calls are cause for concern
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
As another hurricane hits Florida, how is information complicating disaster relief efforts?
Well, the heads of FEMA are saying this is by far the worst misinformation environment they've ever seen around a natural disaster, and it makes life a lot more difficult. First of all, it means a lot of people that need help aren't getting help, a lot of people that need to evacuate aren't evacuating, and it undermines the morale of the people that are working to try to help respond to the hurricane. So, for all of these reasons, when you have people saying that the money isn't actually being sent or it's being displaced, or that there are blockades, all of these things, if there's ever a time that you need scientists and authorities to be believed and listened to, it's in a national emergency. We saw these problems with the pandemic working with a lot of uncertainty, and you now see this working with a hurricane, working with a lot of certainty. So, even in an environment that should be depoliticized should be very straightforward that everyone comes together, it doesn't matter if you're red or blue. If you're getting hit by a hurricane, you need the same information. You need the same services that's being undermined by a disinformation environment. My God, am I worried about that in the aftermath of the US election in November. People should not sleep on how challenging it's going to be to get through that.
What do Southeast Asian leaders hope to accomplish at the ASEAN regional summit?
Well, the big thing they hope to accomplish, and this is not an organization like the EU or NATO; it's a pretty disparate group of countries that have very different political and economic systems and values and preferences; not a lot of common authority, but certainly, they all want to see an end to the civil war that has been expanding in Myanmar. And so the top issue is can they collectively push for diplomatic engagement between the two sides that have not been willing to talk to each other? Certainly, that is Secretary of State Tony Blinken's hope and effort in his attendance right now. We'll see if it goes anywhere, but it's increasingly disruptive for economics, for infrastructure, supply chain across the region, and right now, it is getting worse.
What do you make of reports that Trump stayed in touch with Putin after leaving office?
We heard from Bob Woodward, this new book coming out, some seven direct conversations, phone calls that Trump had with Putin since leaving the presidency, which does surprise me a little, honestly. We know that Zelensky really wanted to have one conversation with Trump a few weeks ago during the United Nations meetings on the sidelines, and it looked like that wasn't going to happen, and then finally it did. Certainly, for those that are concerned that Trump and Putin are continuing engagement and that means that Zelensky might be thrown under the bus, there's more reason to be concerned about that given those ongoing conversations. Certainly, you'd want to know what they're about. Trump does want an end to the war. Frankly, most of the world is aligned with him and wanting an end to the war, and I think it's useful to be able to talk with Putin directly. Frankly, I think that people like Biden and Ursula von der Leyen and the NATO secretary general should be talking to Putin even though there is a war going on that they're on opposite sides of, because it would help potentially long-term reduce tensions and lead to a greater potential of a negotiated settlement. But that's very different from a bunch of conversations that had not been discussed and that aren't necessarily trusted.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken shakes hands with Chinese Communist Party's foreign policy chief Wang Yi during their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia, Thursday, July 13, 2023.
Top diplomats meet in Laos to discuss Myanmar & South China Sea
On Thursday, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations met in Vientiane, Laos, to kick off a three-day summit focused on resolving Myanmar’s violent civil war and cooling tensions in the South China Sea. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are also attending – each with their own interests in mind.
In Myanmar, ASEAN nations have failed to make progress toward their “five-point consensus” unveiled in April 2021, two months after a military coup. Since then, the country has spiraled into a humanitarian crisis – with over 3 million displaced and more than 5,400 Burmese killed. ASEAN’s plan seeks an immediate cessation of violence, which has largely been ignored by junta leaders, calling into question the efficacy of the bloc amid fears of regional spillover.
This week’s talks hope to revive the much-criticized plan but are likely to face significant obstacles as competing geopolitical interests leave countries – including the US and China – supporting opposing factions.
On the South China Sea sovereignty issue, ASEAN is hoping to capitalize off the progress made on Sunday’s deal between China and the Philippines and to finalize a similar agreement of their own – a protracted code of conduct including China. Still, pessimism looms over how much these nations can achieve to ease these protracted issues in the region.
Georgia Senate candidates: U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R)
What We’re Watching: US midterm cliffhanger, Russia’s Kherson retreat, ASEAN summit kickoff
Control of Congress hangs in the balance
“It was a good day for democracy and I think a good day for America,” President Joe Biden said Wednesday night about the midterm election results. The US House and Senate both remain in play after Republicans failed to deliver on their promise of giving Democrats a shellacking. While the GOP is still favored to take control of the lower chamber, incoming House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is likely to preside over a slim and dysfunctional GOP majority – hardly the wave he had anticipated. The GOP is still 11 seats short of clinching a majority in the House, and several competitive districts are still being counted. Control of the Senate, meanwhile, rests on three states – Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia – that remain too close to call. The race in the Peach State between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker will go to a run-off on Dec. 6 after neither reaped 50% of the vote. What’s more, measures to enshrine abortion rights were overwhelmingly backed by voters in states including Michigan, California, and Vermont. Even deep-red Kentucky refused to back an amendment denying the constitutional right to abortion, proving that curtailing abortion access is a losing issue for the GOP.
Russia suffers southern setback
In a major blow to Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” in Ukraine, Russia on Wednesday announced it was withdrawing its forces from Kherson city, capital of the strategic southern region of the same name. The retreat comes after weeks of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive meant specifically to retake the only regional capital Russia had taken over since invading in February. Russia’s military leaders, looking cheerful as always, spun the withdrawal as a measure to “preserve combat readiness,” but there’s no doubt that this was a big loss. Still, in retreating across to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, Russia still controls much of Kherson province, which borders on the Crimean Peninsula. Things seem to be going Kyiv’s way at the moment, but will Ukraine push further? Meanwhile, in positive news on Armageddon-watch, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has reportedly been in direct contact for months with his Kremlin counterparts in a bid to avert nuclear escalation.
Bongbong at ASEAN
The annual ASEAN summit, which brings together 10 Southeast Asian nations, gets underway in Cambodia on Thursday. As ever, the US-China rivalry will hang over the entire event. US President Joe Biden is set to attend a US-ASEAN summit on Saturday, where he’ll press to deepen ties in infrastructure, investment, and trade. China, meanwhile, is sending Foreign Minister Li Keqiang for a separate China-ASEAN summit, where Beijing will push to accelerate a free trade deal while dangling more Belt and Road infrastructure investment. Expect the regional powers to tread carefully between the global superpower and the regional heavyweight — China is by far the largest trade and investment partner for ASEAN members, but many are wary of its territorial encroachments on the South China Sea. One thing to watch is the speech of recently elected Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., who is set to address the delicate situation in Myanmar and call for a “code of conduct” in the South China Sea.Cricket fans, with their faces painted in the Indian and Pakistani national flag colors, ahead of a match between the two countries.
What We’re Watching: Partition 75th anniversary, Kenyan vote count, US-China in Southeast Asia
India & Pakistan turn 75
This year’s Aug. 15 Diamond Jubilee of Partition, when the British Raj split into India and Pakistan, is a complicated affair. India has gained more from independence in 1947 than Pakistan: earlier this summer, the Indian economy crossed the $3.3 trillion mark and officially overtook the UK to become the world’s fifth-largest — a nice touch to celebrate 75 years of independence from its colonial master. But India’s democratic credentials remain under threat by the rise of Hindu nationalism. However, Pakistan’s experiments after Partition — proxy wars, civil war, martial law, and Islamism — brought much suffering to its people. Today, the country is at the verge of another financial crisis and negotiating its 23rd IMF bailout, as well as in talks with its own version of the Taliban. Unfortunately, a growing nuclear arsenal is the only equalizer for the political and economic imbalance between the two countries. But there is still hope yet. After years of making zero progress, India and Pakistan are now involved in a backchannel dialogue, which may bring some normalcy between the old enemies. That, and the cricket, of course: Pakistan has won more games overall against its arch-rival, but never beaten India in a World Cup match.
Kenya's election nailbiter
Six days after Kenya's presidential election, the race between Deputy President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga is still undeclared. As of Monday afternoon in Nairobi, Ruto is ahead by a slim margin with about half of the vote officially counted, while unofficial media tallies that initially put his rival in the lead now also have Ruto winning. Both sides accuse each other of tampering with the process, which is painstakingly slow to avoid past instances of fraud: in 2007, more than 1,200 people were killed in violent clashes across the country after Odinga claimed the election had been stolen, and in 2017 a string of logistical mistakes forced the Supreme Court to annul the result and order a rerun. The result must be announced no later than Tuesday, a full week after the vote. Also, if neither candidate gets more than 50% of the vote and at least 25% of the ballots cast in a minimum of 24 out of Kenya's 27 counties, the presidential election will for the first time go to a runoff before Sept. 8.
Southeast Asia tiptoes on US-China
Over the weekend, the US and Chinese militaries held separate military drills with Southeast Asian partners less than two weeks after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's mega-controversial trip to Taiwan, to which China responded by its biggest-ever show of force around the self-governing island. Chinese fighter jets participated in joint exercises with the Thai air force, while American and Indonesian troops wrapped up their two-week Garuda Shield live-fire drills, which Australia, Japan, and Singapore joined for the first time. The war games come amid heightened tensions in the region over Taiwan: many Southeast Asian countries are now “keeping their head down” to avoid picking sides between Beijing, who they do by far the most trade with, and Washington, which has given them more military aid for decades. No one wants to rock the boat in the region, where more than 10 years ago China and the Philippines — a former US colony that America is treaty-bound to defend — came to the brink of war over a disputed shoal in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, China kicked off Monday another round of military exercises near Taiwan after a group of US lawmakers visited the island the day before.Johnson meets Swedish PM Magdalena Andersson in Stockholm.
What We're Watching: UK-Nordic security pact, Biden-ASEAN summit, King Abdullah II at the White House
Boris Johnson embraces NATO-bound Nordics
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed security declarations on Wednesday with Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö. These documents are promises that if either Nordic country is attacked, Britain will come to its aid. In return, Sweden and Finland promise the same support for the United Kingdom. Asked for specifics, Johnson said his government would offer “whatever Sweden requested" and would “share more intelligence, bolster military exercises, and further joint development of technology.” On specific weapons, the UK PM said that would be determined by what was requested. These are simply political promises, not security guarantees of the kind NATO membership offers. But this show of solidarity comes at a sensitive moment; Finland and Sweden are widely expected to announce their application for NATO membership in the coming days, and their governments have warned that the “gray zone” period between formal application and certain acceptance will leave them vulnerable to various forms of Russian aggression. Meanwhile, Russia’s offensive in Ukraine continues, and US intelligence now believes Moscow is planning for a long war with intentions of achieving “goals beyond the Donbas.”
Will ASEAN side with Biden?
On Thursday, US President Joe Biden kicks off a two-day summit in Washington with eight leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. There’s one big item on the agenda: China. Biden will try to persuade the guests to take his side on the US-China rivalry, but almost all of them will surely say, like Singaporean PM Lee Hsien Loong has, that it’s an impossible choice. ASEAN has long bickered with China over a range of issues, mainly Beijing's claim to the entire South China Sea, disputed by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. But China has too much economic and military clout in Southeast Asia for ASEAN to openly antagonize Beijing — no matter how much investment and security cooperation Washington offers. Since the bloc will likely meet Biden's overtures with its usual bromides, perhaps the most interesting thing about this summit is two no-shows: Myanmar and the Philippines. Myanmar's junta was not invited because the US still recognizes the previous democratic government the generals toppled in February 2021, and outgoing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte didn't RSVP because he's about to be replaced by Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who is less openly pro-China than Duterte.
King Abdullah set to visit White House
Jordan’s King Abdullah II will meet with President Joe Biden at the White House Friday for their second face-to-face meeting since Biden came to office. The two are likely to discuss bilateral relations, with Jordan emphasizing the need for ongoing US aid to help its battered economy (the US is the single biggest donor to Jordan, providing $1.65 billion in the 2021 fiscal year). They’re also bound to focus on the recent uptick in violence in Jerusalem, particularly at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Jewish Israelis call the Temple Mount. Jordan is the site’s custodian and is responsible for its day-to-day administration. Amid recent clashes between Palestinian worshippers and Israeli police, Amman requested additional Waqf monitoring at the site, and Israeli authorities agreed. Still, the Jordanian government, which usually maintains warmish ties with Jerusalem, accused Israel of provocations against Muslim worshippers. (Israel claims that it was responding to rock-throwing and that it has maintained the status quo, which mandates that Jews cannot pray at the Temple Mount, despite it being the holiest site in Judaism.) Indeed, the security situation in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank remains precarious, and King Abdullah may politely request that the Biden administration – distracted by the onslaught in Ukraine – pay more attention.
What We’re Watching: G7 warns Russia, Israeli PM in UAE, Blinken in Southeast Asia, Nicaragua ditches Taiwan, Poland may stiff EU
Russia’s big plans for Ukraine. G7 foreign ministers warned Sunday of “massive consequences” if Russia invades Ukraine. It was the first joint statement by the group of rich democracies since recent satellite images revealed a significant buildup of Russian troops and military equipment on the border with Ukraine. Indeed, according to reports, the force that Moscow is massing near Ukraine is larger than the one it used to annex Crimea in 2014. This comes after the Pentagon said that Russia could have 175,000 troops on the border by the end of January in order to invade the former Soviet republic. In an attempt to lower the temperature last week, President Biden and Vladimir Putin held a long video call, but the Russian president was not deterred by Biden’s threat of more economic sanctions if Russia escalates further. Putin says he wants NATO not to expand membership any further into the former Soviet Union, and to stop military cooperation with Ukraine. Moscow will reportedly send a proposal for a security arrangement this week. But Putin, who has already indicated his willingness to threaten European energy markets, also knows all too well that while Washington talks a tough game, it is not willing to send in troops to defend Ukraine.
Israeli PM meets Emirati prince. Naftali Bennett landed Sunday in Abu Dhabi, marking the first-ever official visit by an Israeli PM to the United Arab Emirates. Bennett met with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed, the de-facto Emirati leader. The visit is a sign of the endurance of four groundbreaking diplomatic agreements between Israel and Arab states brokered by the Trump administration in 2020. Since then, previously covert relations between the UAE and Israel have warmed significantly: Abu Dhabi has become a popular tourist destination for thousands of Israelis, while bilateral trade reached a whopping $600 million in the first seven months of this year. In the past, the Emiratis made diplomatic ties with Israel contingent on peace efforts with the Palestinians, but Bennett’s visit highlights the changed priorities of the Gulf states, now more concerned with partnering with Israel to contain a nuclear Iran. The Saudis, for their part, share strategic interests with their Gulf partners — and have been cooperating with Israel on intelligence and security behind closed doors for years. But so far, Riyadh has been unwilling to formalize diplomatic ties with Israel for a variety of reasons, including unfavorable public opinion toward Israel.
Blinken tours Southeast Asia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken kicks off on Monday his first Southeast Asian trip as America's top diplomat with stops in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Following similar tours by VP Kamala Harris and Defense chief Lloyd Austin, Blinken wants to bolster US defense cooperation with ASEAN, an economic bloc made up of Southeast Asian countries, to build a bulwark against China in the South China Sea. He will also pitch Joe Biden's vision for US-led Indo-Pacific trade as an alternative to doing more trade with China, and talk up Southeast Asia as an alternative business destination for US companies looking to abandon China. But what ASEAN really wants is tariff-free access to the US market, a non-starter for Biden because he says big trade deals with low-wage countries will hurt low-skilled American workers. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian countries are in a bind of their own: doing more business with the US as an alternative to China will create jobs, but the Chinese won't be happy about it — and nowadays they carry a lot more economic sway in the region than America does.
Taiwan’s decreasing diplomatic traction.Nicaragua is the latest country to drop recognition of Taiwan in favor of the People's Republic of China, which considers the self-governing island as part of its territory. Beijing has long lobbied aggressively for the diplomatic isolation of Taiwan with both carrots (mostly promising a lot of cash to those who switch sides) and sticks (like downgrading ties with Lithuania for allowing Taiwan to open a de-facto embassy in Vilnius). China's efforts are paying off: today only 13 mostly small nations plus the Vatican still recognize Taiwan and not the People’s Republic, down from 21 just five years ago. But in Central America the tilt towards Beijing also has to do with US sanctions against the authoritarian leaders of first El Salvador — which ditched Taiwan to embrace China three years ago — and now Nicaragua. Meanwhile, China continues to invest big in the region, and will likely spend more money in Nicaragua very soon. Ironically, Washington’s actions to aid democracy in Central America may actually bring some of its countries closer to America's authoritarian rival.
Poland and the EU are at it again. It’s clear that there’s no love lost these days between Warsaw and Brussels, who have been at loggerheads in recent years over rule-of-law issues, particularly a spate of reforms in Poland that undermine the judiciary’s independence. Poland upped the ante Sunday, saying it would withhold payments to the EU budget and veto EU laws if Brussels follows through on a previous threat to delay COVID relief funds after Poland’s top court ruled that its own constitution trumps EU law. The EU has said that disbursement of funds to “illiberal” member states Hungary and Poland is contingent on domestic democratic reforms — a mechanism that the two Eastern European states have now challenged in court. Poland is legally obligated to pay its EU dues in order to reap the bloc’s benefits, but clearly Warsaw is banking on Brussels acquiescing in the near term. However, the EU knows that Poland might not want to push the boundaries much further because a majority of Poles want to remain part of the EU. Who will cave first?What We're Watching: Blinken goes to Southeast Asia
Blinken tours Southeast Asia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken kicks off on Monday his first Southeast Asian trip as America's top diplomat with stops in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Following similar tours by VP Kamala Harris and Defense chief Lloyd Austin, Blinken wants to bolster US defense cooperation with ASEAN, an economic bloc made up of Southeast Asian countries, to build a bulwark against China in the South China Sea. He will also pitch Joe Biden's vision for US-led Indo-Pacific trade as an alternative to doing more trade with China, and talk up Southeast Asia as an alternative business destination for US companies looking to abandon China. But what ASEAN really wants is tariff-free access to the US market, a non-starter for Biden because he says big trade deals with low-wage countries will hurt low-skilled American workers. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian countries are in a bind of their own: doing more business with the US as an alternative to China will create jobs, but the Chinese won't be happy about it — and nowadays they carry a lot more economic sway in the region than America does.
Myanmar's junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who ousted the elected government in a coup on February 1, presides at an army parade on Armed Forces Day in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, March 27, 2021.
What We’re Watching: ASEAN shuts out Myanmar, Russian hackers strike again, Afghans risk winter starvation
ASEAN gets tough(ish) with Myanmar: The leaders of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations meet Tuesday for their annual summit with one notable absence: the head of Myanmar's military junta. It's a rare snub from ASEAN, a regional bloc that's gotten a lot of heat in the past for giving tyrants a free pass. The junta says ASEAN violated its traditional principles of deciding by consensus by disinviting its leader, and non-interference in domestic affairs for demanding the bloc's special envoy meet detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi. For their part, the other ASEAN members have grown visibly alarmed at Myanmar's rapidly deteriorating political and economic situation since the February coup, and they're worried about the spillover effects of Myanmar becoming a failed state. More importantly, Myanmar is a big thorn in ASEAN's side as it walks a fine line between keeping warm ties with the US — which most members want cash and security from — and getting along with China, one of Myanmar's few remaining friends and viewed with suspicion by most ASEAN members over its South China Sea shenanigans.
Another big Russian hacking operation: Hack me once, shame on me. Hack me twice? Just months after US President Joe Biden slapped sanctions on Russia over a massive Kremlin-backed hacking campaign that targeted US businesses and government agencies, the Russians are at it again. Microsoft, which is increasingly functioning as a de-facto cybersecurity department of the US, says Russia's powerful SVR foreign intelligence agency is behind a new, "very large" and "ongoing" operation to swipe cloud data from US government agencies, think tanks, and corporations. On the one hand, operations like this are now run-of-the-mill cyber-spying, which all governments (including yours, wherever you are) do to each other. But the optics of the Kremlin launching a massive operation of this kind just six months after Biden deliberately soft-pedaled Russia sanctions in an effort to "de-escalate" US-Russia tensions… are NOT good.
Afghanistan faces starvation: The UN's World Food Program has warned that without urgent action, more than half of Afghanistan's 38 million people are at risk of starving this winter. Since the Taliban took over the country in August following the US withdrawal, the country has fallen into an economic tailspin. That's partly because Western donors and international lenders — who are loath to recognize the Taliban — have cut the flow of foreign aid, which accounts for up to 40 percent of Afghanistan's GDP. The WFP says that it needs more than $200 million a month to meet the food needs of the country. Last week, the IMF warned that Afghanistan's economic collapse could generate a fresh and regionally destabilizing migrant crisis.