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Trump, Xi, and the new US–China standoff
US–China relations are once again on edge. After Washington expanded export controls on Chinese tech firms, Beijing struck back with new limits on critical minerals. President Trump responded by threatening 100% tariffs, then quickly walked them back.
Ian Bremmer says neither side wants a full trade war: “Trump doesn’t want to risk inflation or crash the markets, and Xi knows both countries have real leverage over each other.”
As Trump and Xi prepare to meet, from TikTok control to Taiwan tensions, Ian explains why “this relationship is tense, but not heading for a blow-up.”
Trump shifts on Russia: From carrots to sticks in Ukraine war
For years, US policy toward Russia’s war in Ukraine has swung between extremes. Under Biden, “all stick, no carrot.” Under Trump, “all carrot, no stick.” Ian Bremmer says both approaches failed to change Vladimir Putin’s calculus.
What’s different now? Trump himself admits his personal diplomacy with Putin has failed—a rare concession. Instead, he’s pushing oil pressure: urging Hungary, Turkey, and India to cut Russian crude purchases, and exploring deals with Ukraine on drones and long-range missiles.
“The US is closer today to the Ukrainian and European position than Trump was months ago,” Ian notes. “That’s a shift worth watching.”
Brazil sentences Bolsonaro: What it means for democracy and US-Brazil relations
Brazil’s Supreme Court has sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for plotting to overturn the 2022 election and allegedly conspiring to assassinate President Lula. In this week's "ask ian," Ian Bremmer says the verdict highlights how “your response… has nothing to do with rule of law. It has everything to do with tribal political affiliation.”
While amnesty for junior coup plotters is likely, Bolsonaro himself appears headed for jail, unless his allies return to power. Meanwhile, US sanctions and tariffs have fueled backlash inside Brazil. As Ian puts it, “Brazil is doing everything they can to hedge away from the United States.”