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How Syrian rebels toppled Assad's regime
The last time Syrians sought to oust the Bashar Assad regime, the ensuing crackdown sparked a 14-year-long civil war, killing over 500,000 Syrians and creating nearly six million refugees. So why did things change this time? Ian Bremmer explains.
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Syrians living in Turkey, holding a picture of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, celebrate after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, in Istanbul, Turkey, December 8, 2024.
Four reasons why Turkey is excited about the fall of Assad.
No one is sure what the end of the Assad regime in Syria will bring, but few in the region are happier about it than Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For years, Erdogan, whose Islamist AKP party has governed Turkey since 2003, had sought the ouster of Assad, a secular despot backed by Shia Iran, a regional rival.
In the end, the jihadist militants of Hayat Tahrir el-Sham, or HTS, a group supported in part by Turkey, led the campaign that ended the 54 year reign of the Assads.
But why was Erdogan in particular so interested in seeing that happen?
Here are four big reasons:
- The refugee problem. Nearly 4 million Syrian refugees have arrived in Turkey since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Ankara has gotten some 9 billion Euros from the EU to support them and keep them from traveling onward to Europe, but their presence in Turkey has generated a social backlash. With Assad out of power, Erdogan sees an opportunity to send them home.
- The regional power play. The Sunni Islamist government of Erdogan has always seen Shia revolutionary Iran as a regional rival. Assad, supported by Tehran, was the keystone of Iran’s arc of regional power, enabling Iran to project power via proxy groups into neighboring Lebanon, Iraq, and the Palestinian territories. With that keystone removed, the arc has fallen, and now a Turkey-friendly Sunni Islamist group is in a position to pick up the pieces in Syria. That, says Emre Peker, lead Turkey analyst at Eurasia Group, gives Ankara a chance to “engage in a massive way in the reconstruction of Syria and expand influence and clout throughout the region.”
- The Kurdish complication. For decades, Ankara has faced separatist militancy from Kurdish groups based in southeastern Turkey and is hostile to Syrian Kurdish groups that have carved out autonomous zones of their own during the Syrian civil war. The post-Assad uncertainty has already given Erdogan an opportunity to move more forcefully against the Syrian Kurds. Still, he will have to maneuver carefully in order to avoid a spat with the US, which has backed Syrian Kurds as proxies in the fight against the Islamic State. Incoming US president Donald Trump has called for “staying out of” Syria, which Erdogan would welcome, but it remains to be seen whether that plays out.
- And lastly, the domestic angle. Turkey is in the grip of a huge cost of living crisis, with inflation near 50%. “At a time when everyone is upset about inflation,” says Peker, “the Syria situation is a godsend because now Erdogan can strut his stuff and be the global leader he always wants to be, and people will love him for it in Turkey.”
What could go wrong? Lots. Much of the upside for Erdogan depends on HTS being able to establish order, bring rivals and competing factions to heel, and above all, shape a society that most Syrians will want to live in – or go back to.
But if minority groups feel threatened by HTS rule, there could be a fresh exodus of refugees. Even worse, if HTS’s attempt to hold power collapses altogether, the country could plunge back into chaos and open civil war altogether.
Syrian refugees in Ankara, Turkey, celebrate the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Dec. 8, 2024.
With Assad out, will migrants move as well?
In Turkey, which hosts approximately 3.2 million Syrian refugees, celebrations erupted following Assad’s ouster, with many people talking aboutreturning home. Syrian refugees in Britain and Germany also held jubilant public celebrations, expressingexcitement about going back.
Regime change in Damascus could also pave the way for the repatriation of Syrian refugees from some parts of Europe. The Netherlands was already considering policiesto send asylum-seekers back, while other EU countrieswere discussing voluntary repatriation before Assad’s fall. Countries could close the door to new arrivals on the basis that Syrian migrants no longer face persecution at home. Closer to home,Jordan is also discussing the possible return of Syrian refugees.
But the feasibility of large-scale repatriation hinges on Syria’s economic stability, the shape of its future government, and reconstruction efforts. A Jihadist regime might not be appealing to refugees seeking to return. And on X, the UNHCR posted “Any refugee return must be voluntary, dignified and safe. UNHCR has been working with all stakeholders to address what refugees identify as obstacles to their return to end their displacement.”
Could the return of refugees dampen support for populist anti-immigration parties in the West? Without a crisis on their doorsteps, politicians like Giorgia Meloni and Geert Wilders would have one less drum to beat – at least when it comes to refugees from Syria.Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar Assad, on Dec. 8, 2024.
What Assad’s fall means for Syria, the Middle East, Moscow and Washington
Syria’s government has fallen, precipitating change across the region and beyond. How did things get here, and where could they go?
Syria under Assad
The Syrian civil war, sparked by the Arab Spring of 2011, began as protests against the dictatorship of Bashar Assad, who took over from his father after Hafez Assad died in 2000. Known as “the Butcher of Damascus,” Bashar Assad killed and imprisoned thousands of political opponents and minority populations withthe support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The conflict killed over500,000 Syrians and displaced half the country’s population of 26 million people, prompting a refugee exodus to neighboring Turkey as well as Europe, the USA, and Canada.
Over the weekend, Assad fled with his family and was granted asylum in Moscow.
New rebel leadership
In just two weeks, insurgents seized control of major Syrian cities including Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and the capital, Damascus, and officially toppled Assad’s regime on Saturday. The main rebel force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a former al-Qaida militant whoin the last decade has transformed from radical jihadist to ostensible pragmatist. Skeptics question the authenticity of his change of heart, however, andHTS is still designated as a terrorist group by many countries, including the United States.
Regional impacts
Iran: The collapse of Assad’s regime deals a significant blow to Iran’s "Axis of Resistance,"severing a crucial conduit for arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and diminishing Tehran's influence in the region. This leaves it more vulnerable to anydirect conflict with Israel.
Lebanon: US envoy Amos Hochstein believes the Syrian war’s outcomewill have a “massive impact” on Lebanon as it reduces Iran’s ability to send weapons to Hezbollah. Syria’s instability could also worsen Lebanon’s fragile economic state.
Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuattributed Assad’s fall to Israel’s “forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran.” Israel has nonethelessdeployed forces into the Golan Heights to protect its border andstruck military targets inside Syria to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of hostile forces including Hezbollah.
Turkey: Turkey has backed rebel forces throughout Syria’s 13-year war as part of its geopolitical rivalry with Iran, and the outcome is seen as a win for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Celebrations have erupted among Syrians in Turkey over Assad’s fall, and it is estimated that up to 50% of refugees theremay choose to return.
Superpower Stressors
Russia: Since the war began, Vladimir Putin has provided political support, military aid, and direct military intervention. This loss weakens Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East, including jeopardizing control over its Syrian air base in Hmeimim and naval air base in Tartus.
Russia’s military commitments in Ukraine are also blamed forweakening Moscow’s ability to support Assad’s regime. Following his ouster, US President-elect Donald Trumpcalled on Moscow for “an immediate ceasefire” in Ukraine.
The United States: The US has 900 troops in eastern Syria fighting against the re-establishment of the Islamic State and will remain there “to ensure [the group’s] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of ISIS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons,"according to Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro. Under President Barack Obama, the US authorized thousands of airstrikes on Syria and Iraq starting in 2014 as part ofOperation Inherent Resolve, part of an international effort to destroy the Islamic State.
This time around, US President-elect Donald Trumpposted to Truth Social on Saturday that the US “SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO” with the conflict in Syria. But Washington doesn’t appear to be listening: On Sunday, the US launched dozens of precision airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives based in Central Syria, according to US Central Command.
And at a press conference on Sunday, US President Joe Biden not only took credit for helping topple the Assad regime through its sanctions against Syria and support for Israel’s efforts against Hezbollah, but he said the US will support Syria's neighbors, ensure stability in eastern Syria, protect against the Islamic State, and engage in a UN-led process to transition from Assad to an independent, sovereign Syria with a new constitution.
However, Washington will also “remain vigilant,” Biden added, noting that while the rebel groups that took down Assad “are saying the right things now,” the US “will assess not just their words but their actions.”
Palestinians clash with Israeli forces during a raid in Nablus in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, February 22, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Deadly raid in Nablus, EU asylum applications soar, North Koreans go hungry, old phone = nouveau riche
11: At least 11 people died and scores were injured on Wednesday after Israeli security forces conducted a rare daytime raid in the West Bank city of Nablus. Israel was targeting members of a Palestinian militant group known as the Lion’s Den, which Israel blames for a string of shootings against troops and Israeli settlements amid recent rising tensions in the region. On Thursday, Palestinian militants retaliated by firing rockets at southern Israel, and the Israeli military launched air strikes in the Gaza Strip in response.
1 million: The EU received nearly 1 million asylum requests last year, the highest level since the 2015-2016 refugee crisis. Syria, Afghanistan, and Turkey were the top three countries of origin. This excludes over 4 million Ukrainian refugees who have been granted temporary protection in the EU.
180,000: Despite recent displays of military prowess, satellite images show that North Korea produced 180,000 metric tons less food last year compared to 2021. While chronic food shortages are common in the Hermit Kingdom, things have gotten worse since the pandemic. North Koreans are turning to less desired but more affordable alternatives to rice such as corn, while experts fear an impending famine.
100: Hoarders for the win! Fifteen years after receiving an iPhone as a gift, stowing it away, and forgetting about it, a New Jersey tattoo artist fetched $63,356 at an auction for the unopened device. That’s more than 100 times its original price. The first release 8GB iPhone from 2007 is a rare find in pristine condition.A woman reacts while embracing another person, near rubble following an earthquake in Hatay, Turkey.
Tragedy upon tragedy in war-torn Syria
Days after a devastating 7.8-magnitude earthquake hit southern Turkey and northern Syria, the window for rescuing victims buried in the rubble is closing. Rescue efforts – and survival prospects – are being further challenged by freezing weather conditions.
The death toll has now surpassed 11,000 – and that number will certainly rise. Thousands remain missing, and nearly 400,000 have been moved to government shelters or hotels. Some 4 million Syrians in northern Syria alone were already displaced and relying on humanitarian support.
Tragically, this crisis compounds existing regional calamities, particularly for war-torn Syria, that make recovery efforts extremely difficult.
Tragedy compounds tragedy. For the people of northern Syria, the temblors bring yet more misery after a decade of war. Crucially, Idlib and Aleppo, central to the Assad regime’s strategy of retaking the country, have been subject to heavy shelling since late 2019. Before Monday’s tragedy, at least 3.3 million people in northwest Syria (out of 4.6 million) were food insecure. Meanwhile, a deadly cholera outbreak has also spread across the country in recent months.
Assad Sam Hanna, a Syrian activist who previously worked with Syria's “White Helmets,” says this week’s tragedy is even “more traumatic for the people who escaped the war where buildings used to collapse because of bombings.” He notes that a lot of those families resettled to southern Turkey, where they “felt they were on the safe side.”
Who’s offered aid? At least 45 countries have offered to help Turkey in its recovery efforts, including dispatching 27 teams to assist with search and rescue efforts. Conversely, just a handful of states – China, Russia, Algeria, the United Arab Emirates, and cash-strapped Lebanon – have offered support to Syria, most of which is controlled by President Bashar al-Assad, considered a pariah by the West.
Since Syria’s civil war erupted in 2011, Western countries have cut the country off from international markets and imposed measures that have obliterated local industries, causing widespread poverty. Without access or logistical connections in the region, it remains unclear whether – or how – Western states are going to – or can – help the Syrian people. Washington has pledged to help those on both sides of the border but will do so through “humanitarian partners,” not by working with Assad’s regime. Assad, meanwhile, rejects any involvement that isn’t coordinated with the central government in Damascus.
The struggle to deliver aid. Control of northwestern Syria is divided between Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a rebel group with connections to al-Qaida. Meanwhile, northeast Syria is held by a Kurdish-led group backed by the US and where most of the services are provided by NGOs. Simply put: There is no central government to enforce a coordinated response.
Making matters worse, the Bab al-Hawa border crossing, the only humanitarian artery linking Turkey and northwest Syria, has been damaged by the earthquake. That’s a big problem for the Syrian recovery effort, Hanna says, because “the only way [to deliver aid] is through the Turkish side.”
But even before the earthquake, deliveries through this safe passage had been hindered by cynical geopolitics. Consider that Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a key backer of the Assad regime, used its clout to force the closure of several humanitarian corridors, leaving Bab al-Hawa as the sole lifeline. Still, Russia recently threatened to block this route as well if the UN failed to coordinate aid programs with the Assad regime.
Retraumatization of refugees. Many people impacted by the earthquakes – on both sides of the border – had already been displaced by Syria’s civil war. While some fled to northwestern Syria from other parts of the country, around 3.6 million had resettled in Turkey since 2011. Gaziantep, the epicenter of Monday's quake, is home to around 500,000 Syrians.
Complicating matters further is the fact that anti-refugee sentiment has been on the rise in Turkey in recent years. In response to growing public concern over migration flows, Ankara had already capped at 20% the number of foreigners in some districts. Now, dealing with its own catastrophe, it will be even more difficult for Turkish authorities to accommodate a surge in Syrian migrants.
While those on the ground await political and humanitarian solutions that may never come, aid workers are racing against the clock as the prospects of finding more people alive grow bleak.
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- How Syrian rebels toppled Assad's regime - GZERO Media ›
Coronavirus Politics Daily: China's corona cases spike, Nicaragua's pres vanishes, Syrian refugees flee again
China's COVID-19 cases jump again: Two worrisome stories have emerged from China in recent days. First, Chinese health officials, now working hard to prevent a second wave of COVID-19, reported the highest daily number of new coronavirus cases on Monday since March 6, with 108 new infections registered. State media blame this latest jump in cases, at least in part, on border crossings from Russia. Second, the central government has reportedly issued new rules that restrict the publication of academic research on the origins of COVID-19, which most experts say began in China's Hubei province. This appears to be part of an official effort to blunt criticism of the government's initial response to evidence of outbreak.
Nicaragua's president is MIA: Amid coronavirus fears, many heads of state are making weekly (if not daily) public appearances to address their government's pandemic response efforts. In the Central American country of Nicaragua, however, President Daniel Ortega has not been spotted in public for over a month. Ortega, the socialist leader of the Sandinista movement (who has been widely denounced for veering into authoritarianism in recent years) has not surfaced since March 12, prompting rumors that he is gravely ill, dead, or else engaging in some sort of bizarre publicity stunt. In Ortega's absence, his wife and vice president, regarded by many as Nicaragua's more powerful leader, has been leading the response to COVID-19 – which is to say, leading almost nothing: the government has done little to halt the spread of coronavirus, leaving schools and businesses open and even encouraging Nicaraguans to gather at public events. Official data report just one death from the virus and no community transmission to date – claims widely dismissed as farfetched by the healthcare community.
Syrian refugees flee to...Idlib: The Syrian government's onslaught in northwest Syria forced as many as 1 million Syrians to flee north to the Turkish border where they have since languished in ramshackle refugee camps. But now many of those displaced people are heading back to their homes in Syria's Idlib province, wagering that returning to war-torn northern Syria is safer than staying in overcrowded camps potentially rife with coronavirus. There are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in these refugee camps to date (though there's also been no testing there), but the scarcity of medical supplies, food, heat, and clean water would handicap any virus containment efforts, humanitarian aid groups warn. With a tentative ceasefire brokered by Moscow and Ankara more or less holding in Idlib province, over 70,000 displaced Syrians have reportedly returned there. While many are worried that the Syrian regime could start shelling their villages again at any moment, for now, a deadly coronavirus outbreak in a crowded camp seems like the bigger threat.