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Syrian refugees in Ankara, Turkey, celebrate the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Dec. 8, 2024.
With Assad out, will migrants move as well?
In Turkey, which hosts approximately 3.2 million Syrian refugees, celebrations erupted following Assad’s ouster, with many people talking aboutreturning home. Syrian refugees in Britain and Germany also held jubilant public celebrations, expressingexcitement about going back.
Regime change in Damascus could also pave the way for the repatriation of Syrian refugees from some parts of Europe. The Netherlands was already considering policiesto send asylum-seekers back, while other EU countrieswere discussing voluntary repatriation before Assad’s fall. Countries could close the door to new arrivals on the basis that Syrian migrants no longer face persecution at home. Closer to home,Jordan is also discussing the possible return of Syrian refugees.
But the feasibility of large-scale repatriation hinges on Syria’s economic stability, the shape of its future government, and reconstruction efforts. A Jihadist regime might not be appealing to refugees seeking to return. And on X, the UNHCR posted “Any refugee return must be voluntary, dignified and safe. UNHCR has been working with all stakeholders to address what refugees identify as obstacles to their return to end their displacement.”
Could the return of refugees dampen support for populist anti-immigration parties in the West? Without a crisis on their doorsteps, politicians like Giorgia Meloni and Geert Wilders would have one less drum to beat – at least when it comes to refugees from Syria.Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar Assad, on Dec. 8, 2024.
What Assad’s fall means for Syria, the Middle East, Moscow and Washington
Syria’s government has fallen, precipitating change across the region and beyond. How did things get here, and where could they go?
Syria under Assad
The Syrian civil war, sparked by the Arab Spring of 2011, began as protests against the dictatorship of Bashar Assad, who took over from his father after Hafez Assad died in 2000. Known as “the Butcher of Damascus,” Bashar Assad killed and imprisoned thousands of political opponents and minority populations withthe support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The conflict killed over500,000 Syrians and displaced half the country’s population of 26 million people, prompting a refugee exodus to neighboring Turkey as well as Europe, the USA, and Canada.
Over the weekend, Assad fled with his family and was granted asylum in Moscow.
New rebel leadership
In just two weeks, insurgents seized control of major Syrian cities including Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and the capital, Damascus, and officially toppled Assad’s regime on Saturday. The main rebel force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a former al-Qaida militant whoin the last decade has transformed from radical jihadist to ostensible pragmatist. Skeptics question the authenticity of his change of heart, however, andHTS is still designated as a terrorist group by many countries, including the United States.
Regional impacts
Iran: The collapse of Assad’s regime deals a significant blow to Iran’s "Axis of Resistance,"severing a crucial conduit for arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and diminishing Tehran's influence in the region. This leaves it more vulnerable to anydirect conflict with Israel.
Lebanon: US envoy Amos Hochstein believes the Syrian war’s outcomewill have a “massive impact” on Lebanon as it reduces Iran’s ability to send weapons to Hezbollah. Syria’s instability could also worsen Lebanon’s fragile economic state.
Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuattributed Assad’s fall to Israel’s “forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran.” Israel has nonethelessdeployed forces into the Golan Heights to protect its border andstruck military targets inside Syria to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of hostile forces including Hezbollah.
Turkey: Turkey has backed rebel forces throughout Syria’s 13-year war as part of its geopolitical rivalry with Iran, and the outcome is seen as a win for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Celebrations have erupted among Syrians in Turkey over Assad’s fall, and it is estimated that up to 50% of refugees theremay choose to return.
Superpower Stressors
Russia: Since the war began, Vladimir Putin has provided political support, military aid, and direct military intervention. This loss weakens Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East, including jeopardizing control over its Syrian air base in Hmeimim and naval air base in Tartus.
Russia’s military commitments in Ukraine are also blamed forweakening Moscow’s ability to support Assad’s regime. Following his ouster, US President-elect Donald Trumpcalled on Moscow for “an immediate ceasefire” in Ukraine.
The United States: The US has 900 troops in eastern Syria fighting against the re-establishment of the Islamic State and will remain there “to ensure [the group’s] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of ISIS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons,"according to Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro. Under President Barack Obama, the US authorized thousands of airstrikes on Syria and Iraq starting in 2014 as part ofOperation Inherent Resolve, part of an international effort to destroy the Islamic State.
This time around, US President-elect Donald Trumpposted to Truth Social on Saturday that the US “SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO” with the conflict in Syria. But Washington doesn’t appear to be listening: On Sunday, the US launched dozens of precision airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives based in Central Syria, according to US Central Command.
And at a press conference on Sunday, US President Joe Biden not only took credit for helping topple the Assad regime through its sanctions against Syria and support for Israel’s efforts against Hezbollah, but he said the US will support Syria's neighbors, ensure stability in eastern Syria, protect against the Islamic State, and engage in a UN-led process to transition from Assad to an independent, sovereign Syria with a new constitution.
However, Washington will also “remain vigilant,” Biden added, noting that while the rebel groups that took down Assad “are saying the right things now,” the US “will assess not just their words but their actions.”
Northwest Syria's aid dilemma: the aftermath of devastating earthquakes
The two devastating earthquakes that hit Turkey near the Syrian border on February 6 have exacerbated the already-difficult challenge of getting humanitarian aid into a region plagued by conflict and political instability. In an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, David Miliband, explains how aid delivery remains a challenge in northwest Syria, which is controlled by armed opposition group.
Although two new cross-border points opened after the earthquake, the IRC hasn't seen an increase in aid flows.“It's still very tough to get aid across the border," says Miliband. Humanitarian assistance for northwest Syria needs to travel across the border with Turkey because aid sent directly to Damascus stays with President Bashar al-Assad's government. Miliband notes that the situation was already dire in the region before the earthquakes, and the disaster has only compounded the crisis in Syria, with a lack of adequate medical care, cholera outbreaks, and freezing temperatures posing major risks to the population.
The overall politics of the region, which is still recovering from the decade-long Syrian Civil War, also remain dire. Northwest Syria was a conflict zone as recently as January, and 150 civilians were killed last year in border skirmishes.
“If you live there, it's very hard for people to keep any hope at all,” says Miliband.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Challenge of survival/Problem of governance: Aid for Turkey & Syria
What obligations do rich nations have when it comes to refugees?
The recent tragedy of the migrant boat that sunk off the coast of Italy and killed 64 people raises an important question: are European leaders taking the right approach to prevent migrants from risking their lives in the first place? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer and David Miliband, the President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, discuss the complex and urgent nature of the migrant crisis and the need for effective solutions.
Miliband notes that migration is not just a European issue but a global one, with people “on the move more than ever before” due to persecution, war, and disaster. He emphasizes the need to “balance fairness with humanity” and “fulfill legal as well as moral obligations for people who have been driven from their homes.”
To address this challenge, Miliband outlines four key elements to fair, humane migration: fast processing of asylum claims, proper integration of those allowed to stay, addressing criminal elements that exploit the lack of legal migration routes, and creating legal routes for asylum-seekers and migrants to travel safely.
Miliband predicts that migration will be one of the biggest challenges for the rest of this century, as people in countries with a per capita income of less than $7,000 will continue to seek a better life elsewhere.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Challenge of survival/Problem of governance: Aid for Turkey & Syria
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Ian Explains: Earthquakes compound political turmoil in Turkey and Syria
A 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit Turkey and Syria on February 6th, followed by a 7.5 magnitude quake shortly after, causing widespread devastation and over 50,000 death in Turkey and Syria. The disaster is compounded by multiple crises in the region, including the Syrian civil war, the refugee crisis, and financial turmoil in both countries, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
The earthquake also highlighted the complicated relationships between the countries' leaders, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and the rest of the world.
Syria is still devastated by a over a decade of civil war, a conflict that’s killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions, and decimated northwest Syria, where the earthquakes struck. Western leaders wary of sending aid directly to Assad's government, which has a history of withholding assistance from citizens in rebel-controlled areas.
Erdoğan is navigating a difficult political environment ahead of the general election in May, trying to avoid the pitfalls of his predecessor, who was booted from office two decades ago in large part because of his mismanagement of another earthquake that killed over 17,000 people.
The main challenge now is to expand the flow of aid to the people in Turkey and Syria who still desperately need it, while ensuring that the help continues to flow long after the news crews leave.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Challenge of survival/Problem of governance: Aid for Turkey & Syria
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