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Syria after Assad
The Assad family no longer rules Syria. How did a brutally repressive regime rule with an iron fist for five decades only to collapse in two weeks? And after 14 years of bloody civil war, why was now the moment that a frozen conflict exploded into the global spotlight? The cost Syrians have already paid is greater than any nation could reasonably be expected to bear. Since 2011, more than 500,000 Syrians have died, including 200,000 civilians, and nearly six million refugees flooded neighboring Arab States and some European nations, most notably Germany.
But there’s no guarantee that the suffering will end just because the Assad regime has. To help make sense of these shocking past few weeks and the potential power vacuum to come is Middle East expert and Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas. “There was a decrepitude that installed itself within the regime's ranks and just a general exhaustion, life was not getting better for those who stood by the regime. And so I think there was a feeling that it was time to abandon him.”
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How Syrian rebels toppled Assad's regime
The last time Syrians sought to oust the Bashar Assad regime, the ensuing crackdown sparked a 14-year-long civil war, killing over 500,000 Syrians and creating nearly six million refugees. So why did things change this time? Ian Bremmer explains.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha speaks during a news conference in Bangkok, Thailand.
What We're Watching: Thai PM suspended, US strikes Iran in Syria, Macron woos Algeria
Thai PM in limbo
On Wednesday, Thailand's top court suspended PM Prayuth Chan-ocha while it decides whether his term in office started when he took over in a 2014 coup or when he was “elected” five years later. If the court decides the former, Prayuth would be removed for exceeding the constitutional limit of eight years in power. Such a verdict would likely fire up the youth-led protests demanding his resignation, which started with a bang in 2020 but soon ended with a whimper following a crackdown on their leaders for questioning the role of the monarchy. The ruling drops in two weeks, and until then Prayuth's deputy — who also took part in the 2014 power grab — is in charge. Fun fact: the eight-year limit was put in place by the military to target deposed former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, whose sister Yingluck was ousted by Prayuth. Guess who's likely running for PM in the next election? Thaksin's millenial daughter, Paetongtarn.
US strikes Iran in Syria
The US carried out two rounds of airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria this week, more than a week after Iran-backed groups launched a series of rocket attacks at US troops in the country’s northeast. (Iranian militants reportedly responded on Wednesday with more rockets, firing at two sites where US forces are based, including a big gas field.) The US strikes hit several facilities in Deir al-Zour province, which are believed to be affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military force established during the revolution that controls much of Iran's economy and plays a major role in overseeing Tehran's foreign policy. Iran – which has long maintained a presence in Syria in an effort to keep President Bashar al-Assad in power – denied targeting the US base, where around 1,000 US troops and allied forces are stationed. These tit-for-tat exchanges between Washington and Tehran come as the two sides appear closer to reviving the defunct nuclear deal. For the deal’s critics, this episode is proof that Iran is a terror state unworthy of trust. But for its proponents, this flareup reinforces that a deal is needed to rein in (at least some of) Iran’s bad behavior.
France’s Macron visits Algeria
Can he woo Algiers in three short days? French President Emmanuel Macron plans to give it a go. He lands in Algeria for a “goodwill” visit on Thursday and will spend 72 hours trying to smooth over France’s strained relations with its former colony. The trip — coming on the heels of Algeria’s 60th anniversary of independence after 132 years of French rule — is aimed at improving diplomacy following Macron’s dustup last year, when he accused Algiers of rewriting history and of boosting “hatred toward France.” Algeria responded by withdrawing its ambassador from Paris. Moreover, Algeria is one of the world’s largest gas producers, and with the Ukraine war and its resulting energy crunch putting Europe on edge, Macron would love to sow seeds for a deal to get more liquefied natural gas from its former colony. Macron is likely also hoping to discuss the Sahel region, where Algeria yields great influence, particularly in Mali, a state where French troops recently withdrew after a nine-year mission.Yes, the war in Ukraine deserves more attention than Syria or Afghanistan. Here’s why.
Yes, the war in Ukraine deserves more attention than Syria or Afghanistan. Here’s why.
It is day 19 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it seems like it's all anyone can talk about. In a country that rarely cares about what happens abroad, 84% of Americans say they are following the news about the war closely. Certainly, it’s getting far more attention than the conflicts in Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, or Palestine ever have.
I've seen a lot of commentators in the media assert that this is proof that most of us only care about the plight of other white Europeans and have no regard for the fate of poor and brown people in the developing world. In other words, that it’s just another expression of racism.I understand that perspective. God knows it’s true that for too many, empathy is not color-blind. But it's way too simplistic in the case of Ukraine.
In fact, this crisis has captured so much attention despite, not because, of the 2 million refugees already streaming into Europe being overwhelmingly white, Christian, and culturally European.
Imagine how different the coverage would be if those 2 million people were coming into Europe from Africa, the Middle East, or Central Asia instead. Yet because Europe is so willing to welcome and integrate Ukrainians—it doesn’t say great things about humanity, but it is a reality we have to acknowledge—the exodus of the 5-10 million Ukrainians who are likely to leave Ukraine in the coming weeks isn’t nearly as much of a story as what's happening on the ground in Ukraine and the implications for NATO, for the global economy, and even for direct confrontation between the U.S. and Russia.
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So no, the main reason why this war is getting so much attention is not racism. It’s because of the outsized impact it could have on global prosperity and peace.
When the world’s largest grain exporter attacks the fifth-largest grain exporter, and when the world’s largest gas exporter and second-largest oil exporter gets cut off from the global trade and financial system, the cumulative impact on everyone in the planet is so much greater than any amount of poverty, deprivation, and death Syrians, Afghans, and Yemenis are experiencing. It doesn't take away from their suffering, but it makes it completely understandable that everyone in the world would pay more attention to Ukraine than to them.In particular, the impact of this war on poor people and poor nations around the world is going to be far greater than that of the conflicts we've seen in any of those countries. As usual, rich people and rich countries will be just fine; poor people and poor countries won’t. Paying more attention to Ukraine than to other tragic, albeit localized, conflicts is therefore justified.
A second reason to care about this war stems from the fact that Russia is a military superpower. The risk of nuclear conflict between the U.S. and Russia poses an existential threat to all of us living in the world. The same cannot be said of any other conflict or humanitarian crisis.
The West is unequivocally at war with Russia. NATO countries may not be sending troops to Ukraine, but they are sending money, supplies, and weapons to help the Ukrainians more effectively kill the invading Russians. They are imposing crippling financial sanctions with the stated purpose to decimate the Russian economy. They are trying to topple Putin’s regime.Western countries may think this is just indirect fighting, but the Kremlin doesn’t see it that way. To them, these steps are as much acts of war against Russia as imposing a no-fly zone would be. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea. But we have to acknowledge that the potential for significant escalation, including cyberattacks, economic warfare, disinformation campaigns, proxy terrorism, and yes, even direct military confrontation, makes this an incredibly dangerous environment for the whole world. To be clear, I'm not in any way predicting World War III. I don't think it's imminent. I don't even think it's close. But I recognize it's possible—and much more likely than it was nary a month ago.
Are Ukrainians more deserving of sympathy than Syrians, Afghans, and other victims of conflict? No. Does the war in Ukraine matter more for the world than those other conflicts? Yes, and by a long shot.
Given the stakes, it would be inconceivable—and indeed irresponsible—for us not to spend most of our time focusing on this crisis.
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