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Palestinians clash with Israeli forces during a raid in Nablus in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, February 22, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Deadly raid in Nablus, EU asylum applications soar, North Koreans go hungry, old phone = nouveau riche
11: At least 11 people died and scores were injured on Wednesday after Israeli security forces conducted a rare daytime raid in the West Bank city of Nablus. Israel was targeting members of a Palestinian militant group known as the Lion’s Den, which Israel blames for a string of shootings against troops and Israeli settlements amid recent rising tensions in the region. On Thursday, Palestinian militants retaliated by firing rockets at southern Israel, and the Israeli military launched air strikes in the Gaza Strip in response.
1 million: The EU received nearly 1 million asylum requests last year, the highest level since the 2015-2016 refugee crisis. Syria, Afghanistan, and Turkey were the top three countries of origin. This excludes over 4 million Ukrainian refugees who have been granted temporary protection in the EU.
180,000: Despite recent displays of military prowess, satellite images show that North Korea produced 180,000 metric tons less food last year compared to 2021. While chronic food shortages are common in the Hermit Kingdom, things have gotten worse since the pandemic. North Koreans are turning to less desired but more affordable alternatives to rice such as corn, while experts fear an impending famine.
100: Hoarders for the win! Fifteen years after receiving an iPhone as a gift, stowing it away, and forgetting about it, a New Jersey tattoo artist fetched $63,356 at an auction for the unopened device. That’s more than 100 times its original price. The first release 8GB iPhone from 2007 is a rare find in pristine condition.North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and daughter Kim Ju Ae attend a military parade in Pyongyang, North Korea.
What We're Watching: Parade in Pyongyang, Lula in DC, China balloon capabilities
North Korea shows off ICBMs and ... a 10-year-old girl
North Korea's supreme leader made a big splash to mark the 75th anniversary of the army on Thursday by showing off his shiny new toys and — maybe — his heir. At a huge military parade in Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un beamed as he saluted a whopping 11 nuclear-armed ICBMs capable of reaching the US mainland, the largest number the regime has ever assembled in public, just two months after he demanded an "exponential increase" in the country's arsenal of nukes. Because each projectile has multiple nuclear warheads, a flurry could overwhelm US air defenses. What's more, the army also displayed a mockup of a new solid-fueled ICBM, which theoretically would be easier and faster to launch. But what really caught the attention of North Korea watchers was the presence beside the supreme leader of Kim Ju Ae, his 10-year-old daughter. The young girl, believed to be Kim's second child, met North Korea's top brass on Wednesday and has been seen five times alongside her dad in just two months, fueling speculation that Kim might someday pick her as his successor. That would be a tectonic shift for North Korea, not because of her age — after all, her father grew up around generals — but due to the country's deeply patriarchal society. Still, what matters more than gender is being a Kim, and right now the country's second most powerful person is Kim Yo Jong, the supreme leader's famously feisty sister.
Lula goes to the White House
Brazil’s new left-wing President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva visits Joe Biden at the White House on Friday in a bid to reset bilateral ties after a rocky few years under his far-right predecessor, Trump-fan Jair Bolsonaro. Biden and Lula will find much to agree on beyond a shared disdain for their predecessors. Climate change is one thing as Lula has put the environment at the center of his agenda these days and will look to get Biden to join his Amazon fund to protect the rainforest. But things will get dicier as talk turns to Ukraine, where Lula has blamed Zelensky and Putin equally for the war, and won’t send military aid to the Ukrainians. His proposal to form a “Peace Club” to negotiate an end to the conflict is likely to get a cool reception at the White House, especially since Lula wants it to include China. Speaking of China, that’s an area where Biden will need to tread carefully himself: Washington’s biggest global rival is Brazil’s number one trade partner. Hanging over all of this? Bolsonaro, who is still kicking it in South Florida to avoid facing charges back home for inciting the “January 6” style riots that followed Lula’s inauguration last month.
US: China’s balloon was equipped to gather intel
Washington is popping holes in Beijing’s claims that the balloon it shot down over South Carolina’s coast last weekend was simply a weather device. The State Department released declassified intelligence on Thursday showing that the balloon was equipped with antennas capable of “intelligence collection operations” that could intercept calls on communications devices. What’s more, the US believes this was just one of many balloons from a wider fleet of Chinese aircraft that have floated over 40 countries. Federal investigators are still combing through the debris for answers, but some Republicans have criticized the Biden administration for not providing more information soon enough. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives, in a rare show of unity, united on Thursday to pass a nonbinding resolution 419-0 condemning the incident as a “brazen violation of United States sovereignty." The balloon crisis has dashed hopes – along with Sec. of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit last week to Beijing – of improving US-China relations in the near term. And, as Ian Bremmer wrote for GZERO this week, this episode makes it clear that “Washington and Beijing will struggle mightily to prevent a drift toward escalation.”CORRECTION: An earlier version of this piece incorrectly stated that China is Brazil's number one investment partner. China is Brazil's biggest trade partner, but the top spot for investment is the US. We regret the error.
North Korean fireworks coming
As their relations with the US have soured, China and Russia have grown more reluctant to help the US and South Korea manage their North Korea problem. This has created more space for the North to develop and show off the weapons capabilities that the nation’s rogue regime deems essential to its survival.
Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un recently called for an “exponential increase” in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. In response to the heightened threat, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has said that US guarantees of protection may no longer be enough for his country and that it may need to acquire nukes of its own, although he has recently walked back some of those statements.
What could go wrong? We asked Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan what to expect this year on the Korean Peninsula.
What is North Korea threatening to do?
As part of a policy speech laying out his goals for 2023, Kim called for his country to mass-produce tactical nuclear weapons that could strike South Korea and to develop a new intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a tactical nuke to the US mainland. Kim has given no indication of how or when his regime might demonstrate these capabilities to the world, but his military goals are usually adhered to closely.
In addition, South Korean intelligence believes North Korea has nearly completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test, the first since 2017, which would allow the country to further cement its status as a nuclear power.
Why is the North escalating its provocations now?
Because it can. When North Korea emerged last year from its strict, self-imposed period of isolation during the pandemic, it encountered a substantially changed geopolitical landscape. China and Russia – two countries that have traditionally exercised influence over North Korea – are now less inclined to cooperate on managing the threat it poses.
Though North Korean ballistic missile tests violate UN Security Council resolutions previously supported by China and Russia, the two countries vetoed multiple US-led efforts to condemn North Korea’s sharp increase in ballistic missile launches in 2022.
Without the support of Beijing or Moscow at the UN, Washington was left last year to confer with Seoul and Tokyo, as well as issue largely toothless sanctions against a handful of individuals involved with Pyongyang’s illicit weapons programs. In the process, international red lines were redrawn, leaving a seventh nuclear test as the only remaining action that could potentially encourage China and Russia to back a tougher international response, though it is by no means certain that they would.
How is South Korea responding?
The hawkish South Korean president believes that North Korean provocations can only be deterred with force and has ordered tit-for-tat responses to North Korean provocations such as the incursion of five North Korean drones across the inter-Korean border in late December, after which he sent South Korean drones into North Korean airspace. Yoon told domestic media outlets earlier this month that South Korea and the US were in talks to carry out joint planning and exercises involving US nuclear forces, stating that promises of the US nuclear umbrella were no longer sufficient. He also said that if North Korea’s provocations intensify, “the Republic of Korea could deploy tactical nuclear weapons or possess its own nukes.”
Opinion polls also show that two-thirds of South Koreans now support the development of a domestic nuclear program. While this would obviously have far-reaching implications for both the US-South Korea security alliance and the nuclear ambitions of Taiwan or Japan, China would likely stand to lose the most.
What’s the US saying?
The White House has flatly denied that it has discussed holding joint nuclear exercises with South Korea, a non-nuclear state. The two countries have announced a combined military exercise next month that will test their joint response to North Korea’s use of a nuclear weapon.
A seventh nuclear test in North Korea, however, would put tremendous pressure on South Korea and the US to respond forcefully. US President Joe Biden told Chinese President Xi Jinping at a November meeting that the US response would “be more up in the face of China,” likely entailing large-scale joint military exercises on China’s doorstep and greater deployment of advanced US military assets to the area.
So, will China remain on the sidelines?
Foreign Ministry officials continue to issue boilerplate calls for “meaningful dialogue” and addressing “the legitimate concerns of all parties.” In separate meetings with Xi, both Biden and Yoon requested China’s assistance in reining in North Korea, but the topic did not appear in China’s official readouts. Meanwhile, China-North Korea trade picked up in the second half of 2022, though it remains far below pre-pandemic levels.
With China having exited its zero-COVID policy and re-opened its international borders, flows of people and goods with North Korea are likely to increase significantly in 2023, throwing Kim an economic lifeline. This will also increase the leverage Beijing can use if it decides Pyongyang has gone too far.
Fear of angering Beijing may be all that is keeping Kim from conducting a seventh nuclear test and setting off a chain of events that could destabilize the entire region in 2023.
North Korea on a nuclear rampage, says IAEA chief
North Korea was definitely the original gangster of nuclear proliferation. But now it freaks us out more about the size of its atomic arsenal than the fact it has nukes.
The North Koreans are not backing down, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Grossi recently visited South Korea, where he discussed the North's plans to acquire more nuclear weapons. He says that although North Korea kicked out IAEA inspectors in 2009, he has a pretty good idea of what Pyongyang is up to.
The UN's nuclear watchdog, Grossi insists, is ready to do everything it can to prevent the problem from becoming bigger.
- Rogue states gone nuclear and the watchdog working to avert disaster ›
- The Graphic Truth: North Korea's missile menu ›
- Will standing up to North Korea work? ›
- The Korean Peninsula from K-Pop to Kim Jong-un ›
- Why Netanyahu relented to protests in Israel, but France's Macron didn't in France - GZERO Media ›
A Worldwide Threat Assessment
As we noted in the Wednesday edition, the US intelligence community has released its latest Worldwide Threat Assessment. Much of the media focus this week has fallen on President Trump's criticism of the US intel chiefs, but let's begin with the report itself. Here are its key findings:
- The Trump administration's trade policies have damaged US interests by pushing allies to build new relationships with other governments.
- "At present, China and Russia pose the greatest espionage and cyber attack threats."
- ISIS isn't finished. The group can still call on thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria, as well as a dozen networks around the world.
- "Climate hazards such as extreme weather, higher temperatures, droughts, floods, wildfires, storms, sea level rise, soil degradation, and acidifying oceans are intensifying, threatening infrastructure, health, and water and food security."
- North Korea "is unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capability." Following Kim Jong-un's meeting last year with President Trump in Singapore, North Korea has continued nuclear development in some areas and taken actions that are reversible in others. CIA Director Gina Haspel testified before Congress on Tuesday that North Korea "is committed to developing a long-range nuclear-armed missile that would pose a direct threat to the United States."
- Iran continues to support terrorist groups in the Middle East and Europe, but it's still complying with the terms of the nuclear deal even after the US withdrew from the agreement and re-imposed sanctions. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told Congress this week that "We do not believe Iran is currently undertaking activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device."
And now to the controversy. President Trump, who has made statements in the past that contradict every one of these findings, was not pleased with the assessment, particularly on the subject of Iran. "The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong! When I became President Iran was making trouble all over the Middle East, and beyond," he tweeted on Wednesday.
If you want to know how a particular government weighs threats to national security, don't look to politicians. They have their own motives for stressing this or that threat. Look to intelligence professionals who were there before a particular president or prime minister arrived and will be there after they're gone. US intelligence has been (sometimes dangerously) wrong over the years, but the experience of its people and their extraordinary access to information make it unwise to dismiss their judgment.
And it's alarming to see the president of the United States, whom the US Constitution designates as Commander in Chief of the military, publicly deriding the integrity of the nation's intelligence agencies. This week, your Friday author is in Japan, one of several US allies where officials are watching with serious concern. It's also noteworthy that a clear majority of Republican senators voted this week to support a measure declaring that the Islamic State and al-Qaeda remain serious threats in Syria and Afghanistan, a rare rebuke for the president by lawmakers from his own party.