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Israeli take part in a gathering and prayer by the Western Wall in the Old City of Jerusalem, Judaism's holiest prayer site, calling for the release of the hostages taken by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in the October 7 attack, in Jerusalem, November 7, 2023
Hard Numbers: The Hamas hostage deal that wasn’t, Brazil nabs Hezbollah agents, former US spook pleads guilty to sex crimes, Polish truckers block Ukrainian border, global warming reaches new record (again)
2: Brazilian police detained two people with links to Hezbollah on suspicion of planning terrorist attacks against Jews in Brazil. Lebanon-based Hezbollah has long been known to operate financial and smuggling networks in South America, in particular in the so-called Tri-Border Area, a semi-lawless region where the frontiers of Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil meet. For more on who Hezbollah are, see our explainer here.
24: A former CIA agent pleaded guilty to drugging and sexually assaulting at least 24 women over the course of foreign postings in Latin America and elsewhere. The 47-year-old agent kept hundreds of photos and videos documenting his crimes. He faces up to 30 years in prison.
3: Polish truckers are blocking three Ukrainian border crossings, demanding that Warsaw limit the number of Ukrainian trucks that are allowed to enter the country. Poland has supported Ukraine militarily and absorbed more than a million refugees from the conflict, but has also tightly restricted imports of Ukrainian grain to protect Polish farmers. The truckers say Ukrainians are secretly violating those agreements. The move comes as Poland’s new centrist government prepares to take over from the right-wing Law and Justice party.
125,000: Hot enough for ya? Scientists say 2023 will almost certainly be the warmest year since a break between two major ice ages 125,000 years ago. The warming warning comes after this past October became the warmest on record, smashing the previous mark set in October 2019 by nearly half a degree Celsius.
Podcast: How to fix the US government's classified information problem with Jane Harman
Listen: Maintaining secrecy can be invigorating, whether you're a child with hidden treasures or a CIA agent safeguarding classified information. However, the more secrets you bear, the heavier the burden becomes. This week’s guest, Jane Harman, who served nine terms in Congress and was a ranking member on the House Intelligence Committee after 9/11, understands the weight of secrecy firsthand.
While there are valid justifications for classifying information, Harman asserts that the US government has grappled with an issue of excessive classification for decades. "A bad reason to classify is to protect your turf—you don't want other people to know what you know in order to protect yourself from embarrassment."
The 9/11 Commission revealed that inadequate information-sharing between agencies like the CIA, FBI, and NSA hindered the government's ability to prevent the tragic terrorist attacks. One significant factor contributing to this failure was the over-classification of information. Each year, approximately 50 million documents are estimated to be classified, though the exact count remains elusive—not due to classification, but because the government struggles to effectively manage the vast volume. In the words of former US Solicitor General Erwin Griswold, some “secrets are not worth keeping.”
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Why CIA director Bill Burns visited Moscow; COP26 limited results
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe:
What was the CIA director doing in Moscow the other day?
I think it was an attempt to bring more stability to the long-term relationship between the US and Russia. That does not hide that there are serious concern when it comes to the Russian intention versus Ukraine. And you never know, you might have a crisis there, if not any day, then at any time. But of course, stability and the long-term relationship is good anyhow.
What's the nature of the different agreements that are concluded at the COP26 deliberations in Glasgow?
Well, there have been a number of them, minor, if you compare it to the big issue, but I mean, important in themselves. Deforestation is of course important. Methane gases to limit their exposure to the atmosphere, is of course extremely important, more coming. But it doesn't hide the fact that it seems to be very difficult to get progress on the real big issue. And that is more substantial reductions of fossil fuel in the major emitters of the world.
US on track for August 31 withdrawal; House passes $3.5T plan
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
Is the US on track for the August 31st withdrawal from Afghanistan?
The US is actually doing a pretty good job, getting its own citizens out of Afghanistan despite the chaos that's been seen at the airport and across the country over the last two weeks. It's estimated on Wednesday afternoon, there were about 1,500 citizens of the United States, still in Afghanistan. And some of them, according to Secretary of State Tony Blinken, may not want to leave. The US has been evacuating enormous numbers in the last several days. Over 21,000 people have gotten out. And even though Biden sent his CIA director, William Burns, to potentially negotiate a longer withdrawal date than August 31st with the Taliban, he says, he's going to stick to this deadline. The people who may not get out are the interpreters and helpers that aided the American military, who are native Afghanis, who are probably going to be left behind when the US leaves at the end of the month.
The House narrowly passed the $3.5 trillion budget plan. What's next for the Democrats?
Well, the House has to start putting some details now, underneath that top-line number. Some Democrats have said they're uncomfortable spending as much as $3.5 trillion. And other Democrats have said they're willing to spend that much, but it has to be fully paid for by most likely tax increases. The list of tax increases that Democrats have available to them is very long, but politically, a lot of these things can't get done. There's been a lot of pushback on things like raising the top capital gains rate, raising the top corporate tax rate, and they still have other tax cuts they want to do including reinstating the SALT tax deduction and new tax credits for low-income families and families with children. So what's next is that the House goes back on recess. They're going to reconvene the first or second week of September and start marking up bills to hit that $3.5 trillion number with a goal of passing both, the bipartisan infrastructure bill and, the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill, out of the House by the 27th of September. Then it goes over to the Senate to see what they do there. There's a couple of moderate members who have been real holdouts on a lot of these points in this bill to date.
Why CIA director Bill Burns met with the Taliban
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on the CIA director's secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban, the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan, and the future of vaccine mandates following the FDA's approval of Pfizer's COVID vaccine.
CIA director Bill Burns held a secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban. How will it impact the ongoing evacuations?
Well, at the very least, you have to think that America's top priority, ensuring that all Americans get out of Afghanistan, given that the US controls nothing on the ground but Kabul Airport, will be facilitated. I would think that that was the reason for him to be there, absolute top priority. That has been successful. If it was a failure, we would've heard something about it by now, and the situation on the ground would be quite different. That is very different though than what happens after August 31st, and whether or not all of the Afghan nationals working with the Americans and in physical danger are going to be let out. So far, I haven't heard that from the Taliban. Certainly that will be a big piece of the negotiations. But better that he's there than not.
What do you expect to come from the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan on Tuesday?
Well, this is interesting because the Brits, who are chairing the G7 this year, really want to ensure that everyone gets out, and that means all the Afghans that have been working with the coalition forces. That means you have the ability to extend beyond August 31st, which President Biden has certainly not said he's been able to do and the Taliban forces have not said they'd agree to. We'll see where it goes. This is going to be a much more contentious G7 than what we saw in Cornwall a couple of months ago, and it'll be very interesting to see whether we have anything like the kind of statements from the Germans, from the French, the Brits criticizing the Biden administration after today's meeting that we did over the last week on Afghanistan. A lot of damage control will be done by President Biden in today's summit.
With FDA approval, are vaccine mandates imminent?
They're happening, and they will ramp up. There are a lot of companies that are going to feel much more comfortable requiring vaccines now that they've been fully approved. Pfizer Comirnaty, the name of their vaccine now, has been approved by the FDA. I also think that a lot of skeptics in the United States will get more comfortable because this was an emergency authorization before, and now it is a fully-approved vaccination the way others that we take, that our children take, have been for decades and decades. I'm hoping that it means good things for the United States in relatively short order. Certainly the numbers of vaccinations over the last couple days, also driven by Delta variant, also going up.A Worldwide Threat Assessment
As we noted in the Wednesday edition, the US intelligence community has released its latest Worldwide Threat Assessment. Much of the media focus this week has fallen on President Trump's criticism of the US intel chiefs, but let's begin with the report itself. Here are its key findings:
- The Trump administration's trade policies have damaged US interests by pushing allies to build new relationships with other governments.
- "At present, China and Russia pose the greatest espionage and cyber attack threats."
- ISIS isn't finished. The group can still call on thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria, as well as a dozen networks around the world.
- "Climate hazards such as extreme weather, higher temperatures, droughts, floods, wildfires, storms, sea level rise, soil degradation, and acidifying oceans are intensifying, threatening infrastructure, health, and water and food security."
- North Korea "is unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capability." Following Kim Jong-un's meeting last year with President Trump in Singapore, North Korea has continued nuclear development in some areas and taken actions that are reversible in others. CIA Director Gina Haspel testified before Congress on Tuesday that North Korea "is committed to developing a long-range nuclear-armed missile that would pose a direct threat to the United States."
- Iran continues to support terrorist groups in the Middle East and Europe, but it's still complying with the terms of the nuclear deal even after the US withdrew from the agreement and re-imposed sanctions. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told Congress this week that "We do not believe Iran is currently undertaking activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device."
And now to the controversy. President Trump, who has made statements in the past that contradict every one of these findings, was not pleased with the assessment, particularly on the subject of Iran. "The Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran. They are wrong! When I became President Iran was making trouble all over the Middle East, and beyond," he tweeted on Wednesday.
If you want to know how a particular government weighs threats to national security, don't look to politicians. They have their own motives for stressing this or that threat. Look to intelligence professionals who were there before a particular president or prime minister arrived and will be there after they're gone. US intelligence has been (sometimes dangerously) wrong over the years, but the experience of its people and their extraordinary access to information make it unwise to dismiss their judgment.
And it's alarming to see the president of the United States, whom the US Constitution designates as Commander in Chief of the military, publicly deriding the integrity of the nation's intelligence agencies. This week, your Friday author is in Japan, one of several US allies where officials are watching with serious concern. It's also noteworthy that a clear majority of Republican senators voted this week to support a measure declaring that the Islamic State and al-Qaeda remain serious threats in Syria and Afghanistan, a rare rebuke for the president by lawmakers from his own party.