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ISKCON (International Society for Krishna Consciousness) activists hold placards as they protest demanding the release of Hindu priest Chinmoy Krishna Das Prabhu, who was arrested in Bangladesh, in Kolkata, India, 29 November 2024. Chinmoy Krishna Das Prabhu, the spokesperson for the Bangladesh Sammilita Sanatani Jagran Jote was arrested by the Dhaka Metropolitan Police on November 25, accused of disrespecting Bangladesh's national flag during a rally.
India-Bangladesh trade war brews, Hasina accuses government of genocide
Anger in India over mistreatment of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority could spark a trade war. India’s ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party has threatened to impose a five-day trade embargo against Bangladesh unless anti-Hindu violence ceases by next week, and possibly for “an indefinite period” in 2025. Some Indian businesses have already stopped exporting to Bangladesh, and Indian hospitals are reportedly refusing Bangladeshi patients.
Why the threats? Violence erupted last week after the arrest in Bangladesh of Hindu monk Krishna Das Prabhu on sedition charges followingprotests Prabhu led against anti-Hindu discrimination. Prabhu’s supporters stormed the Bangladeshi consulate in Agartala on Monday and reportedly hacked a Muslim lawyer to death in Chattogram.
Hindus constitute less than 10% of Bangladesh’s 170-million-strong population and have long claimeddiscrimination and violence from the Muslim majority. Attacks intensified after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasinafled Dhaka in August following violent anti-government uprisings. On Wednesday, in her first public address since then, Hasina accused interim leader Muhammad Yunus of genocide.
What’s the issue for India? An ally of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi,Hasina now lives in exile in India, complicating Delhi’s relationship with the new Bangladeshi administration. Bangladesh is a key ally for India’s border security, particularly in the northeastern states where armed insurgents frequently cross the border to escape local authorities.
People celebrate the resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka, Bangladesh, August 5, 2024.
PM Hasina resigns, flees Bangladesh amid violence
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasinaresigned early Monday and reportedly fled the country amid violent mass protests. On Sunday, around 100 people, including at least 13 police officers, were killed in clashes across the country, as security forces struggled to contain some of the worst violence since independence in 1971.
As thousands of people streamed into the heart of the capital Dhaka today, the military announced it would hold a press conference in the late afternoon. By around 3 p.m. local time, Hasina was spotted at the airport, and television stations broadcast video of demonstrators storming Hasina’s official residence and looting it before the clock struck 4 p.m. The army announced her resignation minutes later.
What happens now? BangladeshiChief of Army Staff Gen. Waker-uz-Zaman, announced that the army has consulted with the leaders of major political parties and civil society organs and will request the formation of a caretaker government.
Hasina had been in charge for 20 of the last 28 years. Her legacy, and that of her father, slain independence movement leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, run deep in the corridors of power in Dhaka. It is unclear where Hasina has gone (India is rumored). We’ll be watching to see whether demonstrators are satiated by the caretaker government, and whether Bangladesh’s hard-earned manufacturing success can be sustained through this tumultuous political period.Buses are seen on fire at the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University premises after a clash between students and government supporters during a protest in Dhaka on August 4, 2024.
Violence engulfs Bangladesh, protesters call on PM to resign
At least 90 people, including 13 police officers, were killed Sunday in a major escalation of violent protests by groups demanding the resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, according to Al Jazeera.
The student-led unrest, sparked last month by the reinstatement of a civil service quota system that favors veterans of the 1971 independence war, has evolved into a broader anti-government movement. Asif Mahmud, coordinator for the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement, announced a Monday “March to Dhaka” to intensify pressure, stating, “We urge students and the public to lay siege to the city.”
The students are mobilizinga nationwide disobedience movement, calling on people not to pay taxes or any utility bills and to shut down all factories and public transport. In response, the government has imposedan “indefinite” nationwide curfew andcut internet service.
“Those who are protesting on the streets right now are not students, but terrorists who are out to destabilize the nation,” declared Hasina, following a national security meeting. She urged citizens to “suppress these terrorists with a strong hand.”
There have been over 200 deaths and 10,000 arrests over the last month, and the violence shows no sign of abating. The protests pose the most serious challenge to date for Hasina, who was elected for a fourth consecutive term in a January vote boycotted by Bangladesh’s main opposition parties. She has been PM for 20 of the last 28 years — and we’re watching to see how much longer she lasts.A demonstrator gestures as protesters clash with Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and the police outside the state-owned Bangladesh Television as violence erupts across the country after anti-quota protests by students, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, July 19, 2024.
Bangladeshi high court quashes quotas, but students stand firm
Bangladesh’s Supreme Court on Sunday scrapped most government job quotas after two weeks of nationwide student-led protests left 139 people dead and more than 400 injured.
The back story:For decades, a quota system reserved 56% of government jobs for special groups. Thirty percent went to descendants of those who fought for independence against Pakistan in 1971. The rest were for women, minorities, and poor districts.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ended that in 2018 in response to protests, but in June the High Court reinstated the fighters’ relatives quota, provoking fresh unrest and a police crackdown. Government jobs are coveted in a country of high youth unemployment, stagnant private-sector employment, and stinging inflation.
The court’s new ruling caps the job quota at 7%.
Hasina has held a tight grip on power since 2009. In January, she won an election that was boycotted by the opposition over concerns that she was rigging it.
Observers say the protests are about more than quotas. “They’re protesting against the repressive nature of the state,” said Mubashar Hasan, a Bangladesh expert at the University of Oslo. “The students are in fact calling [Hasina] a dictator.”
Will the protesters now look to press further against Hasina? Student leaders have already said they’ll stay in the streets until the government releases jailed students and restores internet service.
Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina attends a joint press remarks with Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida (not pictured) in Tokyo.
Blinken threatens, Bangladesh promises
In response to direct pressure from the US, Bangladesh has vowed to hold free and fair elections by January 2024. The announcement came after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday threatened to deny US visas for Bangladeshi officials who obstruct the democratic process.
The background: Bangladesh, which has close ties to both India and China, is seen as a US ally, but Washington has grown increasingly concerned about the undemocratic behavior of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Her Awami League Party won general elections in 2014 and 2018, but observers said she had skewed the playing field against the opposition. Hasina herself, meanwhile, has been accused of cracking down on the media and online speech, while jailing members and supporters of her rival Bangladesh National Party.
And while the country has been praised for taking in more than 700,000 Rohingya refugees from neighboring Myanmar, human rights groups say abuses have grown more common since Hasina came to power in 2009. The Biden Administration, for its part, pointedly declined to invite Hasina to its “democracy summit” last year.
Bangladesh's PM Sheikh Hasina speaks with reporters during the 72nd UN General Assembly in New York.
In Bangladesh, a powerful premiership is transforming into a brutal dictatorship
The world’s longest-ruling female leader is facing the most serious threat to her power in years.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has run Bangladesh since 2009 and has been lauded as the Iron Lady of South Asia for her firm decision-making and economic prowess, faces a united opposition, an economic downturn, and international pressure against her regime’s deteriorating human rights record as fresh protests have swelled in the country over the past few days.
How did we get here? Having ruled one of South Asia’s most dynamic economies for almost 20 of its 51 years of independence (she had an earlier stint as PM in the 1990s too), Hasina is accused of increasing attacks on the political opposition as well as cracking down on civil society. The head of the largest opposition party has been detained for corruption, leaders of the biggest religious party have been executed, and scores of dissidents have vanished, triggering US sanctions against Dhaka.
Even though elections are slated for Jan. 2024, the opposition is demanding Hasina step down and let a caretaker government hold fresh elections. Previous elections held under her watch — like the one which gave her a third consecutive term in 2018 — were marred by irregularities, violence, voter intimidation, and opposition boycotts. And as she faces a fresh wave of protests to preempt her regime’s handling of the next elections, Hasina is responding with force, continuing to arrest opposition leaders and dissidents.
The PM, however, had been able to claim credit for strengthening the economy. Once rated a “basket case” by Henry Kissinger, Bangladesh — one of the world's most densely populated countries, with 170 million living in an area slightly smaller than the US state of Iowa — emerged as an economic success story. It transformed itself into a garment manufacturing and export hub with the highest GDP per capita across South Asia.
But the economy is now in trouble. High energy prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war have reduced export orders, and the local currency has devalued. Foreign exchange reserves have dwindled by almost half to $26 billion in just one year.
The government has responded by hiking fuel prices, which in turn have raised food prices, creating a cost of living crisis. Opposition parties, long weakened by a strong Hasina and a once buoyant economy, have channeled public anger against increased prices into growing protests against the PM.
Still, is Hasina going to go? Good question.
“The opposition has reawakened, and these multiple protests show a level of sustained strength,” says Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC. “But I would strongly caution against talk of an early exit for Hasina.”
Given her track record, Kugelman projects that Hasina is likely to crack down even harder when faced with such resistance. For now, the unrest is partisan, not comprising mass protests, with those on the streets being mostly members or close supporters of opposition parties, not necessarily suggesting a broader anti-government movement.
Also, he adds, Hasina’s Awami League still enjoys high levels of public support, especially for its earlier successes on the economic front and on reducing terrorism risks.
But the area to watch in the coming months is, again, the economy. “If it worsens and the government struggles to ease a growing economic crisis, then the Awami League runs the risk of seeing the emergence of a mass movement. But we’re not there yet, not even close,” says Kugelman.
Under Hasina, Bangladesh has skillfully walked the diplomat tightrope. It has balanced the rivalries between India and China as well as China and the US and even the US and Russia. Yet the PM seems to be slipping when it comes to controlling the police and handling domestic human rights. Her security forces and laws have targeted the indigenous population, civil dissidents, the press, and even ordinary netizens and the Rohingya refugees from neighboring Myanmar.
For now, Hasina’s plan looks likely to push through toward the vote, cracking down if necessary. But as the year goes on, the operative question is a simple one.
Will the election be free and fair? “I wouldn’t count on it,” Kugelman says.
Given that the 2018 vote went through despite international observers crying foul over rigging, that the opposition National Party remains divided about who will lead it, and that regional heavyweights India and China still support the regime, it’s all but assured that South Asia’s Iron Lady will keep gunning for her detractors as she goes for a fourth consecutive term — whether she’s duly elected or not.The Graphic Truth: Women in power
Liz Truss is the shortest-serving PM in British history, but women heads of state and government across the world seem to be doing just fine. Some have yet to prove themselves — like Giorgia Meloni, who was sworn in Saturday as prime minister after riding a far-right election victory in Italy. Others have been at it for years, such as Sheikh Hasina, who’s provided stability that has given once-poor Bangladesh the highest GDP per capita ratio in South Asia. We list the world’s 18 female incumbents with executive authority and popular mandates to serve.