Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Japanese people mourning former PM Shinzo Abe, how will his death further influence Japan's politics?
Well, we've already seen a fairly easy majority win by Abe's own Liberal Democratic Party. He had been stumping for them when he was assassinated. His two legacies are things that the Japanese are moving on. One, Abenomics, the three arrows of fiscal policy and monetary policy and growth really underpin the new style of capitalism that Prime Minister Kishida's been talking about. I think that they will more assertively align towards those, even though the BOJ at this point, The Bank of Japan doesn't have a lot of flexibility given the indebtedness levels. But also the Quad, the CPTPP, the desire of the Japanese, the prime minister to go to NATO for the summit a couple weeks ago. I mean, all of these were really kicked off by Abe wanting a more assertive foreign policy, normalizing their defense capabilities. You might even see a move now towards reforming the constitution on the defense side, something Abe wanted to do but didn't have the votes for. Now the LDP does. I expect to see Japan increasingly assertive on the global stage like you've seen Germany under Olaf Scholz.
Does recent polling indicate both Democrats and Republicans will ditch Biden and Trump in 2024?
No, but it definitely indicates that both of those men, in their late seventies today, will have significant primary challenges. It's too early to talk about DeSantis from Florida is sort of out in front and challenging Trump. At this point in the 2016 race, everyone was talking about Chris Christie is out in front. Things change, and they change a lot as people get to know other political contenders. But I think the lack of popularity of Biden in the Democratic Party and the desire to move on from Trump in the Republican Party... In the case of Biden, the difficulties in the economy and his age. In the case of Trump, the way that January 6th committee has played out, I think does create space and means that both of these primaries are going to be competitive. Frankly, I think in both cases, that would be good for democracy in the United States. But if you made me bet at this point, I'd still say incumbent for Biden and Trump getting another run at it is still the way you would bet against anybody else simply because it's too early to say and they're by far the most well known.
The euro and the dollar are equal. Is it time for Americans to visit Europe?
Has to be, right? I mean, sort of a dollar parody. Everything in Europe is looking pretty cheap. I mean, it sounds like a great time for a vacation in Italy and sort of go and buy some fashion. Why not, and help the European economies, except for the fact of course, that there is a war going on in Ukraine and there are big energy challenges. So I'm not sure that Germany in the winter sounds so great right now, but for Americans that are looking to get the hell out for a week or two, Europe is cheaper now than it's been at any point in 20 years. One thing I would say, though is don't go to the UK. Heathrow is an utter disaster, and they're telling them not to take any more flight reservations because they can't handle all the inbound.
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