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Grief & controversy in Japan for Shinzo Abe's state funeral
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here from Tokyo, Japan, where it has been a pretty intense day. The state funeral of Shinzo Abe, the prime minister who, of course, of Japan was assassinated some 80 days ago. In some ways just kind of an astonishing couple of weeks for the world. Beginning of last week, of course, you had the funeral for Queen Elizabeth, by far the most important figure for the United Kingdom in the post-war period. Then the United Nations, where the entire world comes together in New York, and now in Japan, the state funeral, the first state funeral that you've had in Japan, 55 years for Abe Shinzo, who is by far the most important figure in Japan in the post-war period.
And in both cases, an astonishing outpouring of emotion, of grief in both countries. In the United Kingdom, of course, because she had ruled for 70 years, through so many prime ministers, since Churchill. In Japan, because Prime Minister Abe was gunned down, was assassinated by a young man with homemade weapons in a country that has virtually no violence and certainly not gun attacks against a former prime minister in broad daylight.
Also, controversy in both cases. In the case of the United Kingdom, young people increasingly unhappy with the idea of a monarchy. They think it's something that's kind of, sort of out of date, no longer appropriate for the United Kingdom or the world in the way it projects its power internationally. And of course, King Charles not nearly as popular as Queen Elizabeth has been. In the case of Japan, you have a sitting Prime Minister Kishida, who was both a protege and enormous ally of former Prime Minister Abe, whose popularity has been crushed over the past months, in part because of a crashing yen and challenges in economy, but also in part because of opposition to holding this state funeral, which frankly was because the of a big scandal in across the entire Liberal Democratic party in Japan, the ruling party, because of connections with the unification church, the Moonies as they're called.
The person who assassinated Abe actually wanted to assassinate the head of the Unification Church and couldn't because COVID restrictions meant that he was no longer traveling to Japan. And so he decided, okay, I'm going to kill Prime Minister Abe instead. And then you have these revelations that so many members of the LDP in parliament, in the Diet in Japan, were receiving funds, were going to meetings of the Unification Church. And Kishida's not tried to whitewash it, but it has made the decision to host the state funeral unpopular.
Having said all of that, you saw very little of that today. 20,000 members of Japanese police coming out to ensure that there was no security breaches anywhere during the day, and certainly I didn't see any problems at all. There were some demonstrations. They were relatively small, a few thousand people. Frankly, 5,000 people showed up directly inside for the state funeral. And people I've spoken to in Tokyo today, on balance pretty happy with the fact this has all gone relatively smoothly. We can finally put this horrible act behind Japan, behind the nation.
I will say Japan, unlike so many other democracies in the world today, is a relatively well functioning country, relatively unified. You don't have the same level of populism and fragmentation and de-legitimization of the political system that you see so much in other advanced industrial economies. But this still was an episode, this assassination, that really did deeply shake the Japanese people. And there's still, there's going to be a hangover for that I think for a long time.
Final point for me, the ceremony itself was really quite moving. Kishida-san, the prime minister, gave a powerful opening speech that was really about his political alignment with Prime Minister Abe and everything that Abe had done, his legacy. But by far the most moving part of the ceremony was from Suga-san, who was basically, in addition to being a one of Abe's closest allies, was also perhaps his best political friend. And he spoke about how he was able to convince Abe, after stepping down the first time as PM because of a significant illness, to run again for PM, and that it was the most significant accomplishment he considered of his entire life, and that he would consider it such until he was no longer here with us. Again, it was a moving speech. I saw that Prime Minister Abe's wife was crying all the way through. There was a spontaneous outburst of applause after he gave the speech, which is very unusual in Japan. Certainly otherwise, it was all quiet and respectful all the way through.
Also, such a large number of international leaders that came out for the Abe funeral. Not surprising, Prime Minister Modi, Narendra Modi of India, who was really Abe's best friend on the international stage, a relationship that really initiated the Quad that we have today. It started with Japan and with Abe, not with the United States, the US then picked it up, and it continues to be perhaps the most robust new international grouping that we have in Asia right now. But also, presidents and prime ministers from all over the world, foreign ministers just showing that the longest standing prime minister of Japan in its post-war history didn't just make a mark on Japan inside the country, but also leaves the legacy internationally that we'll be talking about for generation to come.
So that's, anyway, it for me here from Tokyo, I hope everyone's doing well and I'll talk to you all very soon.
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Assassinated! Japan’s grief & how Shinzo Abe’s goals will shape Asia
How will the shocking assassination of Shinzo Abe, Japan's former and longest-serving prime minister, reshape the country and the broader region?
And will it lead to realizing Abe's unfulfilled dream of amending Japan's postwar pacifist constitution?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to longtime Abe adviser Tomohiko Taniguchi, who shares how he felt when he found out his close friend had died.
Taniguchi also weighs in on Abe's foreign policy legacy, whether current PM Fumio Kishida can pick up where his old boss left off, and how Abe's untimely death might ultimately change Japan.
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- Grief & controversy in Japan for Shinzo Abe's state funeral - GZERO Media ›
Mourning, disbelief & anger at the death of Japan’s Shinzo Abe
When Tomohiko Taniguchi learned that former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe had been killed, he felt many things, but first his thoughts turned to the man who took the life of his ex-boss and mentor.
"I was filled with a lot of but different emotions all at the same time," he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. "Disbelief, grief, [but] the strongest emotion, of course, was anger."
Still, Taniguchi believes it was an isolated incident that doesn't indicate we're at the tip of an iceberg of political violence to come for Japan.
And above all, he misses his friend.
How did Shinzo Abe change Japan, and the world?
The late Shinzo Abe, Japan's former PM, often doesn't get enough credit for bolstering the morale of young Japanese, explains Tomohiko Taniguchi, Abe's former adviser and close friend, who spoke with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
On foreign policy, he is considered the architect of the Quad dialogue with the US, India, and Australia, though he failed to realize his dream of reforming Japan's constitution.
Taniguchi says Abe also tried his best to make peace with Russia, just falling short of signing a treaty to resolve the dispute over the Kuril Islands (which the Japanese refer to as the Northern Territories).
"Japan, unlike any other advanced nations, is encircled by [the] three undemocratic, militarist, authoritarian, nuclear regimes of Russia, North Korea, and China," he adds. "Shinzo Abe wanted to decrease the tension at least from Russia — to little avail."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Assassinated! Japan’s grief & how Shinzo Abe’s goals will shape Asia
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Japan's assertive foreign and economic policy reflect Abe's legacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Japanese people mourning former PM Shinzo Abe, how will his death further influence Japan's politics?
Well, we've already seen a fairly easy majority win by Abe's own Liberal Democratic Party. He had been stumping for them when he was assassinated. His two legacies are things that the Japanese are moving on. One, Abenomics, the three arrows of fiscal policy and monetary policy and growth really underpin the new style of capitalism that Prime Minister Kishida's been talking about. I think that they will more assertively align towards those, even though the BOJ at this point, The Bank of Japan doesn't have a lot of flexibility given the indebtedness levels. But also the Quad, the CPTPP, the desire of the Japanese, the prime minister to go to NATO for the summit a couple weeks ago. I mean, all of these were really kicked off by Abe wanting a more assertive foreign policy, normalizing their defense capabilities. You might even see a move now towards reforming the constitution on the defense side, something Abe wanted to do but didn't have the votes for. Now the LDP does. I expect to see Japan increasingly assertive on the global stage like you've seen Germany under Olaf Scholz.
Does recent polling indicate both Democrats and Republicans will ditch Biden and Trump in 2024?
No, but it definitely indicates that both of those men, in their late seventies today, will have significant primary challenges. It's too early to talk about DeSantis from Florida is sort of out in front and challenging Trump. At this point in the 2016 race, everyone was talking about Chris Christie is out in front. Things change, and they change a lot as people get to know other political contenders. But I think the lack of popularity of Biden in the Democratic Party and the desire to move on from Trump in the Republican Party... In the case of Biden, the difficulties in the economy and his age. In the case of Trump, the way that January 6th committee has played out, I think does create space and means that both of these primaries are going to be competitive. Frankly, I think in both cases, that would be good for democracy in the United States. But if you made me bet at this point, I'd still say incumbent for Biden and Trump getting another run at it is still the way you would bet against anybody else simply because it's too early to say and they're by far the most well known.
The euro and the dollar are equal. Is it time for Americans to visit Europe?
Has to be, right? I mean, sort of a dollar parody. Everything in Europe is looking pretty cheap. I mean, it sounds like a great time for a vacation in Italy and sort of go and buy some fashion. Why not, and help the European economies, except for the fact of course, that there is a war going on in Ukraine and there are big energy challenges. So I'm not sure that Germany in the winter sounds so great right now, but for Americans that are looking to get the hell out for a week or two, Europe is cheaper now than it's been at any point in 20 years. One thing I would say, though is don't go to the UK. Heathrow is an utter disaster, and they're telling them not to take any more flight reservations because they can't handle all the inbound.
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