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Ukraine's NATO & EU ambitions
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
First question, is Ukraine going to be a member of NATO?
Well, eventually it will. There's no question about it. There was no even formal limitation issued in the news for fairly obvious reasons. The country is in war at the moment. But at the same time, no question, there were substantial commitments by NATO, even more substantial commitment by the different G-7 nations to build up the armed forces of Ukraine long term, integrate them into NATO. And no question that Washington Summit next year is going to be a lot of discussions on when NATO formally has go to admit Ukraine as a member.
Second question, will Ukraine be a member of the European Union?
Well, same answer. It will be at some point in time, but that's going to be somewhat more drawn out process necessarily. I would hope that by the autumn of this year, that we will have first opinion by the European Commission to say yes and a decision by the heads of government, heads of state and government of the European Union in December to start accession negotiations.
NATO membership for Ukraine?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Sweden will join NATO. Is Ukraine next?
Well, sure, but next doesn't mean tomorrow. Next means like at some indeterminate point, which makes President Zelensky pretty unhappy and he's made that clear, but he has massive amounts of support from NATO right now, and he needs that support to continue. So, it's not like he has a lot of leverage on joining NATO. As long as the Americans are saying it's not going to happen, that means it's not going to happen. No, the real issue is how much and how concrete the multilateral security guarantees that can be provided by NATO to Ukraine actually turn out to be. We will be watching that space.
Is Taiwan readying itself for an invasion by conducting its biggest evacuation drills in years?
I wouldn't say readying for an invasion. I would say, you know, sort of preparing for every contingency, and that means taking care of your people. I mean, the Americans weren't readying themselves for nuclear Armageddon by doing drills in classrooms and by, you know, having bomb shelters, but they had them because we were in a world where nuclear war was thinkable. Well, we're in a world where Chinese, mainland Chinese invasion of Taiwan is very unlikely, but thinkable. And of course, the Taiwanese have to think about it a lot more than you and I do.
Elon vs. Zuck. Thoughts?
Well, my thoughts are mostly about the battle of the social media platforms and the fact that of course you now have the big gorilla in the room with a Twitter competitor. And I've seen it pretty functional for the first several days. Obviously, massive numbers of people are on it, mostly because it's really easy to sign up. They're all coming over from Instagram and it's owned by the same person, by the same shareholders. Unclear to me who's going to win. If I had to bet, I would say that within 6 or 12 months, we're going to have a fragmented social media landscape politically, the way we do blogosphere or cable news, which is, I guess, good for consumer choice, but it's bad for civil society. What else is new?
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference at the summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Is Ukraine inching closer to NATO?
The central question at this week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius: How can the alliance provide Ukraine with maximum military and financial support while keeping its strategic options open by dodging a firm commitment to when and how Ukraine will join?
It’s been 15 years since NATO leaders first pledged that Ukraine will become a member. The official summit communiqué, released on Tuesday, reaffirmed that promise. But now that Ukraine is fighting for its survival against Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed hard for all the support he can get, including a fast-tracked membership process that leads to a security guarantee.
NATO and Ukraine have both made clear Ukraine can’t join while the country is still at war. But on Tuesday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg used a news conference to outline new pledges of support.
He said NATO will…
- Provide multi-year help for Ukraine's transition to NATO training standards.
- Form a NATO-Ukraine council that will hold its first meeting on Wednesday.
- Shift Ukraine’s membership path from a two-step process to a one-step process.
These three pledges raise three new questions.
- Ukraine has trained with NATO for years, mainly on peacekeeping, and surely the war with Russia will help align Ukraine much more closely with NATO’s way of doing things. So what’s new here?
- How will a NATO-Ukraine Council change the war or speed Ukraine’s admission to the alliance?
- Will the new one-step process take six months or 30 years?
Let’s add two more questions …
- Will Zelensky be satisfied with these steps?
- If not, what will he do about it?
Sudan meltdown fuels Saharan instability
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
Does Ukraine belong in NATO, as Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said when he visited Kyiv the other day?
Yup, that's certainly the case, the one way or the other. Although, I think there will be some difficulties forging a consensus on exactly what that means at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius in July. Some of the Central Europeans and the Ukrainians are pressing for full membership as soon as possible. Others, the US and others, are somewhat more reluctant and would like to have a step-by-step.
What are the implications of the meltdown in Sudan for Europe?
Well, evacuating diplomats, as has been done with success is one thing but it's hardly a solution. We have faced a period of prolonged instability in the third largest country of Africa. That sort of makes Europe worried about the entire belt of instability across the Sahara, along the Sahara even more profound, with also the risk of the Russians starting to meddle in there, as well.
War in Ukraine heading to "violent" new phase, warns NATO's Mircea Geoană
Ukraine's military has lasted far longer than anyone expected when the war in Ukraine began one year ago. Much of that success comes down to Ukraine's ability to mobilize the energy of the nation, as well as material support from NATO and its allies. On the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion, GZERO World traveled to the Munich Security Conference and spoke with NATO Deputy Secretary General, Mircea Geoană, for his candid assessment of the state of the war.
Geoană sees a "very significant and violent" new phase in the offensive and, despite public unity, acknowledges there are internal divisions within NATO about how best to engage and support Ukraine. Plus, there's still an open question about Ukraine's path toward NATO membership, and whether joining the alliance is in Kyiv's best interest. Ian Bremmer asks Geoană about Ukraine joining NATO, the lessons the alliance has taken away from Russia's fighting capacity, and what that means moving forward as the war enters its second year.
Catch Bremmer's full interview with Geoană in this week's episode of "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer," airing on public television stations in the US. Check local listings.
Ukraine war will last as long as Putin is in power
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from a slightly chilly Kyiv:
24th of February 2022 is going to redefine the future of Europe. That was one year ago. Putin launched his insane attempt to get rid of Ukraine by military invasion. The verdict so far? Ukraine has really stood up, forming a heroic defense. It's been a strategic failure so far of a massive proportion for Russia and for Mr. Putin. The West has come together, Europe, America. A vote in the UN General Assembly earlier today, 141 nations called for Russia to immediately withdraw its troops from Ukraine. The future? Peace is not imminent. We don't know what's going to be the outcome of the battle, the battlefield is not too far from here, or what is to come. But what we need to do is to secure the future of Ukraine, membership of the European Union, of NATO by one way or the other, and change in Russia. This conflict will go on as long as Mr. Putin sits in the Kremlin. One year has passed, many years lie ahead of us in this part of the world.
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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks by video link during NATO's annual parliamentary assembly in Madrid, Spain.
What We’re Watching: NATO doubles down on Ukraine, Erdoğan mulls Syria ground operation, Chinese COVID protests mellow, news outlets make Assange petition
Lasting support for Ukraine?
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin hoped for a quick victory that would disarm Ukraine and replace its government. Ukrainian fighters, backed and armed by NATO governments, have shredded Putin’s Plan A. His Plan B is to inflict punishment on Ukrainian civilians with attacks on the infrastructure that provides light and heat during the cold, dark winter ahead to try to divide opinion in Europe and the United States over their long-term support for Ukraine’s government. That’s the backdrop for two noteworthy pieces of news this week. On Tuesday, NATO foreign ministers, gathered in Bucharest, will renew their vow, first made in 2008, that Ukraine will one day join their alliance. In the meantime, individual member states will offer more weapons, perhaps including US small precision bombs fitted to rockets that help Ukraine strike enemy targets deep behind Russian lines. The alliance itself will offer electricity generators, fuel, and medical supplies. The message to Moscow: You won’t win a war of attrition. Ukraine’s allies will boost that country’s defenses for as long as it takes to deny Russia a victory.
Will Turkish troops cross into Syria?
Following a terrorist attack that killed six people on a crowded pedestrian street in Istanbul earlier this month, Turkey’s President Recep Erdoğan has placed blame on Kurdish groups operating inside Turkey and on Kurdish fighters in Syria who, Erdoğan says, supply them with weapons. Turkey has already launched artillery attacks and airstrikes on Syria. Kurdish groups on both sides of the border have denied responsibility for the Istanbul attack, but Erdoğan appears ready to order Turkish troops to cross the border into Syria to create a 30-kilometer “safe zone,” a buffer between Syrian Kurds and the Turkish border. Both the US and Russian governments have asked Erdoğan to stand down. Washington wants Syrian Kurds to help with the fight against Islamic State militants. Moscow wants to protect its ally, strongman Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus. But Erdoğan is unlikely to back down, in part because Turkey’s weak economy leaves him and his party vulnerable ahead of elections next year. He knows that a show of strength against terrorism and of defiance against the US and Russia can boost his political standing.
China protests latest: mellower on Monday
The uncommonly large protests against China’s strict zero-COVID policies, which sprung up in dozens of Chinese cities over the weekend, appeared to have died down significantly on Monday, despite activists’ calls for more demonstrations. The drop-off could just be because Mondays are Mondays, but more likely it’s because police and other security services were out in force, particularly in Beijing and in Shanghai, the site of some of the larger demonstrations. Whether things stay calm depends on what happens next. The recent protests were touched off by a fire in western China that claimed 10 lives because quarantined residents were allegedly prevented from leaving the building, but they drew on two years of frustration about the country’s uniquely extreme COVID policies. Any similar spark could ignite the streets again, and fast. President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, whose ouster many protesters boldly demanded, still faces a fraught choice: lift COVID restrictions and risk a wave among a population that has little immunity, or double down on a policy that has enraged his people. For more on how the lockdown has affected ordinary Chinese, see our story about a Shanghai woman who had to steal cherries from the communal garden to make jam at home.
Check out Ian Bremmer's Quick Take on the political fallout from China's COVID protests here.
What We're Wondering: Should the US drop espionage charges against Julian Assange?
Five leading news organizations think so. In a letter to the US government, the New York Times, Le Monde, The Guardian, El País, and Der Spiegel have urged the US government to drop espionage-related charges against the Australian national, whose WikiLeaks organization published huge troves of classified US materials in 2010 and 2011. The five newspapers, each of which used WikiLeaks materials, say espionage charges threaten free speech more broadly. After all, if leaking things is espionage, then being a reporter becomes a potentially treasonous offense.
What do you think — are the newspapers right? Click here to vote in our Twitter poll.