We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Ukraine on the path to joining NATO, says deputy Mircea Geoanǎ
After two years of fighting and brutal warfare in Ukraine, NATO deputy Mircea Geoanǎ says the stakes of the war could not be higher for the West. Ian Bremmer spoke with Geoanǎ on GZERO World at the Munich Security Conference and asked him to give a sober assessment of the war so far, as political battles and mounting crisis fatigue in the US and EU put military and financial assistance for Kyiv in jeopardy. Geoanǎ says the West can't afford to desert Ukraine in its time of need.
“Ukraine will become a member of NATO, it will become a member of the EU,” the NATO deputy warns, “If they don’t prevail, there is no NATO, there’s no EU.”
NATO and Ukraine are getting closer every day, Geoanǎ argues, they're becoming more interoperable with each other, and a level of trust has developed with Kyiv. Abandoning the fight now would be a broader sign of the West’s collective ability to deal with global security challenges coming from elsewhere in the world, like Iran and North Korea. This war is bigger than Ukraine, which is why it’s so important for allies to stay united.
Watch full episode here: Can Ukraine win the war?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Ukraine joining NATO "is the only option," says Alina Polyakova
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis catches up with Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Analysis, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to assess Ukraine’s precarious situation two years after Russia's invasion. Polyakova highlights the intensified military strategy employed by Russia, making the situation dire for Ukraine. She stresses the urgent need for more military support and equipment from Ukraine's allies, especially from the United States.
Polyakova also addresses the debate around Ukraine's potential NATO membership, arguing vehemently for its inclusion. “The only way to secure what have been very positive wins of Western support for Ukraine is to solidify that at the NATO summit by extending an invitation to Ukraine, to even a session talks," Polyakova tells Maciulis. She dismisses the notion that Ukraine's membership would escalate tensions with Russia, asserting that NATO serves as a deterrent to aggression. She emphasizes that Ukraine's integration into NATO is crucial for Europe's long-term security.
Polyakova also clarifies misconceptions about Article 5 of the NATO treaty, stating that it doesn't automatically lead to military intervention. She advocates for starting accession conversations with Ukraine, emphasizing its military capabilities and the benefits it could bring to NATO.
Maciulis and Polyakova also touch on the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on Ukraine and NATO. She suggests that while President Trump's rhetoric about NATO has been concerning, his actions have largely supported the alliance. However, she acknowledges uncertainty about the future and the importance of maintaining trust and unity within NATO.
- Will Putin invade Ukraine? ›
- Putin has a “noose” around Ukraine, says Russia analyst Alina Polyakova ›
- Why Ukraine is the target of Russian aggression – analyst Alina Polyakova ›
- Ukraine's NATO & EU ambitions ›
- Should NATO embrace Ukraine? ›
- How Russian cyberwarfare could impact Ukraine & NATO response ›
- Sending NATO troops to Ukraine unlikely despite Macron's remarks - GZERO Media ›
Ukraine's NATO & EU ambitions
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
First question, is Ukraine going to be a member of NATO?
Well, eventually it will. There's no question about it. There was no even formal limitation issued in the news for fairly obvious reasons. The country is in war at the moment. But at the same time, no question, there were substantial commitments by NATO, even more substantial commitment by the different G-7 nations to build up the armed forces of Ukraine long term, integrate them into NATO. And no question that Washington Summit next year is going to be a lot of discussions on when NATO formally has go to admit Ukraine as a member.
Second question, will Ukraine be a member of the European Union?
Well, same answer. It will be at some point in time, but that's going to be somewhat more drawn out process necessarily. I would hope that by the autumn of this year, that we will have first opinion by the European Commission to say yes and a decision by the heads of government, heads of state and government of the European Union in December to start accession negotiations.
NATO membership for Ukraine?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Sweden will join NATO. Is Ukraine next?
Well, sure, but next doesn't mean tomorrow. Next means like at some indeterminate point, which makes President Zelensky pretty unhappy and he's made that clear, but he has massive amounts of support from NATO right now, and he needs that support to continue. So, it's not like he has a lot of leverage on joining NATO. As long as the Americans are saying it's not going to happen, that means it's not going to happen. No, the real issue is how much and how concrete the multilateral security guarantees that can be provided by NATO to Ukraine actually turn out to be. We will be watching that space.
Is Taiwan readying itself for an invasion by conducting its biggest evacuation drills in years?
I wouldn't say readying for an invasion. I would say, you know, sort of preparing for every contingency, and that means taking care of your people. I mean, the Americans weren't readying themselves for nuclear Armageddon by doing drills in classrooms and by, you know, having bomb shelters, but they had them because we were in a world where nuclear war was thinkable. Well, we're in a world where Chinese, mainland Chinese invasion of Taiwan is very unlikely, but thinkable. And of course, the Taiwanese have to think about it a lot more than you and I do.
Elon vs. Zuck. Thoughts?
Well, my thoughts are mostly about the battle of the social media platforms and the fact that of course you now have the big gorilla in the room with a Twitter competitor. And I've seen it pretty functional for the first several days. Obviously, massive numbers of people are on it, mostly because it's really easy to sign up. They're all coming over from Instagram and it's owned by the same person, by the same shareholders. Unclear to me who's going to win. If I had to bet, I would say that within 6 or 12 months, we're going to have a fragmented social media landscape politically, the way we do blogosphere or cable news, which is, I guess, good for consumer choice, but it's bad for civil society. What else is new?
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference at the summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Is Ukraine inching closer to NATO?
The central question at this week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius: How can the alliance provide Ukraine with maximum military and financial support while keeping its strategic options open by dodging a firm commitment to when and how Ukraine will join?
It’s been 15 years since NATO leaders first pledged that Ukraine will become a member. The official summit communiqué, released on Tuesday, reaffirmed that promise. But now that Ukraine is fighting for its survival against Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed hard for all the support he can get, including a fast-tracked membership process that leads to a security guarantee.
NATO and Ukraine have both made clear Ukraine can’t join while the country is still at war. But on Tuesday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg used a news conference to outline new pledges of support.
He said NATO will…
- Provide multi-year help for Ukraine's transition to NATO training standards.
- Form a NATO-Ukraine council that will hold its first meeting on Wednesday.
- Shift Ukraine’s membership path from a two-step process to a one-step process.
These three pledges raise three new questions.
- Ukraine has trained with NATO for years, mainly on peacekeeping, and surely the war with Russia will help align Ukraine much more closely with NATO’s way of doing things. So what’s new here?
- How will a NATO-Ukraine Council change the war or speed Ukraine’s admission to the alliance?
- Will the new one-step process take six months or 30 years?
Let’s add two more questions …
- Will Zelensky be satisfied with these steps?
- If not, what will he do about it?
Sudan meltdown fuels Saharan instability
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
Does Ukraine belong in NATO, as Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said when he visited Kyiv the other day?
Yup, that's certainly the case, the one way or the other. Although, I think there will be some difficulties forging a consensus on exactly what that means at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius in July. Some of the Central Europeans and the Ukrainians are pressing for full membership as soon as possible. Others, the US and others, are somewhat more reluctant and would like to have a step-by-step.
What are the implications of the meltdown in Sudan for Europe?
Well, evacuating diplomats, as has been done with success is one thing but it's hardly a solution. We have faced a period of prolonged instability in the third largest country of Africa. That sort of makes Europe worried about the entire belt of instability across the Sahara, along the Sahara even more profound, with also the risk of the Russians starting to meddle in there, as well.
War in Ukraine heading to "violent" new phase, warns NATO's Mircea Geoană
Ukraine's military has lasted far longer than anyone expected when the war in Ukraine began one year ago. Much of that success comes down to Ukraine's ability to mobilize the energy of the nation, as well as material support from NATO and its allies. On the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion, GZERO World traveled to the Munich Security Conference and spoke with NATO Deputy Secretary General, Mircea Geoană, for his candid assessment of the state of the war.
Geoană sees a "very significant and violent" new phase in the offensive and, despite public unity, acknowledges there are internal divisions within NATO about how best to engage and support Ukraine. Plus, there's still an open question about Ukraine's path toward NATO membership, and whether joining the alliance is in Kyiv's best interest. Ian Bremmer asks Geoană about Ukraine joining NATO, the lessons the alliance has taken away from Russia's fighting capacity, and what that means moving forward as the war enters its second year.
Catch Bremmer's full interview with Geoană in this week's episode of "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer," airing on public television stations in the US. Check local listings.
Ukraine war will last as long as Putin is in power
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from a slightly chilly Kyiv:
24th of February 2022 is going to redefine the future of Europe. That was one year ago. Putin launched his insane attempt to get rid of Ukraine by military invasion. The verdict so far? Ukraine has really stood up, forming a heroic defense. It's been a strategic failure so far of a massive proportion for Russia and for Mr. Putin. The West has come together, Europe, America. A vote in the UN General Assembly earlier today, 141 nations called for Russia to immediately withdraw its troops from Ukraine. The future? Peace is not imminent. We don't know what's going to be the outcome of the battle, the battlefield is not too far from here, or what is to come. But what we need to do is to secure the future of Ukraine, membership of the European Union, of NATO by one way or the other, and change in Russia. This conflict will go on as long as Mr. Putin sits in the Kremlin. One year has passed, many years lie ahead of us in this part of the world.
- China to shake up Russia-Ukraine war ›
- Hard Numbers … after a year of war in Ukraine ›
- Time favors ... Ukraine or Russia? - GZERO Media ›
- Biden’s visit to Ukraine signals US commitment, but war gets tougher ›
- Putin would rather die than admit defeat in Ukraine, says former Croatian president ›
- A diminished Russia & uncertain Ukraine - GZERO Media ›