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Ukraine and European security in the Trump era: Insights from Sen. Elissa Slotkin
Listen: Three years into the invasion of Ukraine, and amid the Trump administration’s rapid shift in US-Russia relations, can European and NATO allies continue to rely on the United States for support? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer is on the ground in Germany on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference for a hard look at the future of European security with US Senator Elissa Slotkin. World leaders and diplomats gathered at the annual conference to discuss global security challenges, but the biggest story, by far, in Munich was the news of President Trump’s 90-minute phone call with Vladimir Putin, which upended three years of US-led efforts to isolate Russia diplomatically. The Trump administration is emphatic: it wants an end to the war and that Europe is responsible for maintaining peace in any ceasefire deal. But can Europe guarantee Ukraine’s security without US support? Later in the episode, GZERO’s Tony Maciulis speaks with Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis, to discuss the reaction to the Trump-Putin call and growing fears that NATO allies will be left on the sidelines of peace negotiations in Ukraine.
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Trump's call with Putin is big win for Kremlin
“We cannot afford to be reactive,” said Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), responding to the news of President Trump’s recent call with Vladimir Putin.
Trump’s conversation with Putin, which reportedly included discussions on reducing US commitments to NATO, has sent shockwaves through European security circles. Meanwhile, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s recent remarks suggesting that Europe must take more responsibility for its defense have further fueled uncertainty among US allies.
Polyakova cautioned that authoritarian regimes are watching closely, using AI-driven disinformation and cyber warfare to exploit divisions. “The transatlantic alliance is at a crossroads,” she warned. “This is a moment where democracies must assert their leadership, not retreat.”
With European elections looming and global security tensions rising, the debate over the US commitment to its allies will remain a central issue in Munich in 2025—and one that will shape the future of Western security.
This interview, conducted by Tony Maciulis, is part of the Global Stage series at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
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Ukraine joining NATO "is the only option," says Alina Polyakova
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis catches up with Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Analysis, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference to assess Ukraine’s precarious situation two years after Russia's invasion. Polyakova highlights the intensified military strategy employed by Russia, making the situation dire for Ukraine. She stresses the urgent need for more military support and equipment from Ukraine's allies, especially from the United States.
Polyakova also addresses the debate around Ukraine's potential NATO membership, arguing vehemently for its inclusion. “The only way to secure what have been very positive wins of Western support for Ukraine is to solidify that at the NATO summit by extending an invitation to Ukraine, to even a session talks," Polyakova tells Maciulis. She dismisses the notion that Ukraine's membership would escalate tensions with Russia, asserting that NATO serves as a deterrent to aggression. She emphasizes that Ukraine's integration into NATO is crucial for Europe's long-term security.
Polyakova also clarifies misconceptions about Article 5 of the NATO treaty, stating that it doesn't automatically lead to military intervention. She advocates for starting accession conversations with Ukraine, emphasizing its military capabilities and the benefits it could bring to NATO.
Maciulis and Polyakova also touch on the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on Ukraine and NATO. She suggests that while President Trump's rhetoric about NATO has been concerning, his actions have largely supported the alliance. However, she acknowledges uncertainty about the future and the importance of maintaining trust and unity within NATO.
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GZERO celebrates International Women's Day
On International Women's Day, we’re proud to showcase just a few of the exceptional women we’ve interviewed on “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer,” our weekly program on US public television. The accomplishments of these remarkable women have made them role models globally. Click to watch our interviews with:
- Masih Alinejad, an Iranian journalist and women's rights activist, known for her campaign against the Iranian government
- Jennifer Granholm, the former Governor of Michigan and current US Secretary of Energy
- Alina Polyakova, a political scientist and foreign policy expert
- Nikole Hannah-Jones, a journalist and author who led the 1619 Project
- Jean Lee, a journalist who extensively covered North Korea and currently serves as the director of the Korea Program at the Wilson Center
- Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a Belarusian politician and human rights activist who challenged the authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election.
- Phumzile Mlambo Ngcuka, a South African politician and women's rights advocate and former Executive Director of UN Women
- Nancy Mace, the first woman to graduate from The Citadel military college and a Republican congresswoman from South Carolina
- Christine Lagarde, a French lawyer and politician who is currently serving as the President of the European Central Bank
- Maria Ressa, a Filipino-American journalist and CEO of the news website Rappler, known for her coverage of press freedom and the Philippine government's war on drugs
- Kaja Kallas, Estonia's popular centre-right prime minister, who won a sweeping election victory, receiving more personal votes than any politician in the country's history
Why Ukraine is the target of Russian aggression – analyst Alina Polyakova
Tensions continue to escalate in Ukraine with Russian troop build-up and constant cyberattacks.
Will Putin invade Ukraine? Ian Bremmer speaks with Russia/Ukraine expert Alina Polyakova of the Center for European Policy Analysis, who believes that all the signals are pointing to a Russian invasion of Ukraine - though that could strengthen NATO.
Putin has responded to Western diplomacy with demands that are impossible to meet. Still, the US and NATO are trying their best to stop the war.
For Polyakova, the Biden administration is leading the efforts because the Europeans are not on the same page. But Putin should not test NATO unity. A Russian invasion of Ukraine, she says, could strengthen the alliance — as did Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. Most Ukrainians, want to join NATO, but Polyakova thinks they need to fix their fragile democracy first.
She believes Western powers should work closely with Kyiv to preserve its fledgling democratic system. “I think we have to bet on Ukraine developing as a democracy in the years ahead," says Polyakova.
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- US & NATO will draw a hard line on Russian aggression in Ukraine – Ian Bremmer - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine joining NATO "is the only option," says Alina Polyakova - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's call with Putin is big win for Kremlin - GZERO Media ›
Russian hackers' arrests timing likely just coincidence, says Ukraine analyst
Russia recently arrested 14 hackers from REvil, a ransomware gang involved in last year's cyberattack against the Colonial Pipeline in the US.
Some think it was a gesture by Vladimir Putin to deescalate tensions with the US over Ukraine. But analyst Alina Polyakova tells Ian Bremmer she doesn't buy it.
It's more likely, she says, that the hackers did something to irritate the Russians.
“When people see strategy in something that the Kremlin does, I usually see circumstantial reasons and coincidence, and maybe some incompetence here and there," Polyakova explains. "I think these were two separate events.”
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Will Putin invade Ukraine?
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- Constant Russian attacks on Ukraine in cyberspace - GZERO Media ›
Ukraine’s fragile democracy needs help
Ukraine's democracy has a lot of problems. Then again, the country has only had it for 30 years, not 200.
"It's a country that is still finding out what it means to be a democracy," says Ukraine analyst Alina Polyakova in an interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.
Whether it's with current President Volodymyr Zelensky or another leader, she thinks Western powers should work closely with Kyiv to preserve its fledgling democratic system.
“I think we have to bet on Ukraine developing as a democracy in the years ahead," says Polyakova.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Will Putin invade Ukraine?
Putin shouldn't test NATO unity, says analyst Alina Polyakova
The US has been leading the flurry of diplomacy to stop war in Ukraine. Why? For Ukraine expert Alina Polyakova, because the Europeans are not united.
NATO's response is thus (so far) fractured, she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Still, Polyakova thinks testing NATO's unity could backfire for Vladimir Putin. If he invades, that could bring NATO closer together — like in 2014.
“We've seen this movie before."
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Will Putin invade Ukraine?
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