Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine this year? At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Finland’s president Alexander Stubb tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World his biggest concern is that even if a deal is negotiated, Russia will still say “nyet.” Stubb says he’s been optimistic about talks between Ukraine and NATO allies, and believes the West is now on the same page when it comes to Ukraine’s future. But Russia is still a wildcard because Moscow is running out of options. We need to reverse the narrative that Putin has the upper hand in this war, because so far, he’s failed at almost all of his goals, Stubb argues.

Putin tried to quickly take over Ukraine, he tried to stop NATO from expanding, he tried to keep the alliance’s defense spending down and failed at all of those things. Meanwhile, Russia’s army is only making incremental battlefield gains and its economy is struggling. But that doesn’t mean Russia will come to the table. Stubb believes there’s little incentive for Putin to end the war, not because he will win, but because he knows he will lose. Ultimately, he believes the West is negotiating from a position of strength while Russia is severely weakened.

“The US is able to project power, but Russia is not,” Stubb says, “What the US did in Venezuela in 24 hours was what President Putin wanted to do in Kyiv four years ago.”