President Trump promised to end wars and put America First. Eight months into the Iran war, what would success actually look like? And could elections in Israel and the US bring a change in direction—or another round of escalation?

On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with Brett McGurk, former White House Middle East coordinator, about a region where military pressure is mounting and a diplomatic breakthrough remains elusive. “Are we heading towards a deal? I don’t think so,” McGurk says. He explains why he sees escalation as the more likely outcome after the US midterms, and why Iran’s nuclear program must remain central to any negotiation.

They also discuss the difficulty of containing the Houthis and what Israel’s election could change. McGurk argues that a new Israeli government would largely maintain the country’s security doctrine, but could take a significantly different approach to the West Bank.

For Washington, his warning is that disengagement carries its own costs. “The US has to stay diplomatically engaged,” McGurk says, or risk leaving openings that draw America back into even deeper conflicts.