Iran shows its leverage over Strait of Hormuz ahead of nuclear talks
Iran temporarily and partially shut down the Strait of Hormuz – the maritime entryway that handles over 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipping – ahead of a second round of nuclear talks with the US. The move was a show of leverage by Iran, signaling strength to its citizens and its ability to influence global oil prices. Despite the display, Iran is coming into negotiations on weak footing. Its economy is collapsing under sanctions, and it’s staring down the barrel of the US military buildup in the region. Washington’s demands now go beyond Iran’s nuclear program, including limits on ballistic missiles. Iran is highly unlikely to accept those conditions, Eurasia Group’s Iran expert Greg Brew recently told GZERO. However, after the first day of talks, Iran vaguely said that officials had agreed to a “set of guiding principles.” Meanwhile, parallel peace talks are underway in Switzerland on the Russia-Ukraine war.
US threats to Iran prompt China to seek more Russian crude
Chinese imports of Russian oil are set to reach a record high in February, as both small “teapot” refineries and larger firms capitalize on the discounted fuel. Shipments to China are expected to surpass two million barrels per day, up from 1.7 mb/d in January, according to two early assessments. US threats to Iran, which is a major oil supplier to China, have prompted Chinese refineries to seek more crude from Russian sources. The move contrasts with Indian refineries, which have drastically started cutting Russian oil purchases as part of a trade deal with the United States announced earlier this month by President Donald Trump.
Saharan thaw: Algeria and Niger to build a major pipeline
Last spring, Algeria and Niger – two sprawling North African countries — nearly went to war after Algeria shot down a drone from Mali, a close ally of Niger’s. Ambassadors were recalled, and longstanding plans to jointly build a 4,000-kilometer gas pipeline were shelved. But after a visit this week to Algiers by Niger’s president, Abdourahamane Tiani, all appears to be forgiven, and the project will now go ahead. It’s a big deal: the Trans Saharan Gas Pipeline would bring more than 30 billion cubic meters of gas yearly from Nigeria, across Niger, to Algeria. Europe, which is trying to wean itself off of Russian gas, is taking note: those new volumes could complement the roughly 40 billion cubic meters of gas that Algeria already exports to the EU.
