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What We’re Watching: Big week for elections, US and China make trade deals, Suicide bombing in Pakistan

​Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), appeals for a candidate during a street speech of the House of Representatives Election Campaign in Shintomi Town, Miyazaki Prefecture on February 6, 2026. The Lower House election will feature voting and counting on February 8th.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), appeals for a candidate during a street speech of the House of Representatives Election Campaign in Shintomi Town, Miyazaki Prefecture on February 6, 2026. The Lower House election will feature voting and counting on February 8th.

The Yomiuri Shimbun
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Three elections, one weekend

Japanese voters head to the polls on Sunday in a snap election for the national legislature’s lower house, called just three months into Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s tenure. She’s betting that her personal popularity could deliver an outright majority for her new ruling coalition.

In Southeast Asia, Thailand is holding an election after border clashes with Cambodia in December sparked a wave of nationalism. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s ruling Bhumjaithai party is facing stiff competition from the progressive People’s Party and the populist Pheu Thai. Polls show the People’s Party ahead, but the race is expected to be tight with no outright winner.

Portugal is also heading to a runoff vote for president, with the Socialist candidate, António José Seguro, leading with 67% in the polls against his far-right opponent, André Ventura. The country has seen only one runoff in the five decades since the end of authoritarian rule.


The US and China pick their friends

Argentina and the United States signed a sweeping trade agreement on Thursday, a political win for President Javier Milei as he pushes to pry open Argentina’s long-protected economy. The deal eliminates tariffs on 1,600 Argentine products and 200 US exports, while signaling Washington’s intent to deepen ties with South America’s third-largest economy. Meanwhile, another trade deal is in the works between middle-power and superpower countries. China is nearing an agreement that would offer South Africa duty-free access to a wide range of goods. It’s a move that underscores Beijing's growing economic pull as Pretoria navigates a delicate balancing act between the US and China. Tensions with Washington flared last month after the BRICS member held naval drills with China and Iran, and for now, at least, South Africa appears to be leaning more decisively toward Beijing.

Violence in Pakistan spreads to its capital

A suicide bombing killed 31 people and injured 169 others at a Shiite mosque on the outskirts of Islamabad during Friday prayers, the most important Muslim prayer session of the week. No groups have claimed responsibility, although Pakistan’s defense minister said the attacker had been “coming and going” from Afghanistan. He also blamed Indian proxies. The attack is the latest in a string of violence that has rocked the South Asian country of 245 million people in the last year, and comes less than a week after a clash at the Afghan border between the Pakistani military and Balochistan separatists. Pakistan’s problems are mounting, and fast.

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