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Trump's Jan. 6 trial could now hurt his re-election bid
Trump's charges: Latest prosecution could sabotage re-election | Ian Bremmer | World In: 60

Trump's Jan. 6 trial could now hurt his re-election bid

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Will the US-proposed cease-fire plan for Israel and Hamas come to fruition amidst reports of hostage deaths?

It's not done until it's done. There are a lot of ways that it can blow up. And, you know, Netanyahu probably wants to take it to the Knesset and get, you know, support for it. And nonetheless, Hamas can always say no. But I would bet on it. I think we are going to see more hostages released. There's a lot of pressure on Israel to give away more to get that done in terms of a cease-fire. And there's a lot of pressure on Hamas to accept a longer cease-fire and see if they can keep it going. So I think we'll get at least four weeks in return for a significant number of hostages that are released. That doesn't mean that we get a peace plan. It doesn't mean we see a two-state solution. It certainly doesn't mean that the cease-fire is going to hold for longer than that period of time or even the entire period of time submitted to. There are plenty of actors that still want to see war continue on the ground.

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Taiwan's Vice President Lai Ching-te, who heads the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, raises his fist after winning the presidential election in Taipei on Jan. 13, 2024.

Kyodo via Reuters

Taiwan elects pro-independence candidate, calls Beijing’s bluff

Taiwan, one of the freest democracies in Asia, went to the polls on Saturday for a highly anticipated election with implications for both cross-strait and US-China relations.

As we told you last week, Taiwan’s presidential campaign ended up being a close race between independence-leaning candidate William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, and Hou You-ih of the Kuomintang, aka KMT, who favors closer relations with China.

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Supporters of Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's vice president and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate attend, a campaign event in New Taipei City, Taiwan, on Jan. 6, 2024.

REUTERS/Ann Wang

Taiwan holds first big election of 2024

The world will be watching when Taiwanese voters head to the polls on Jan. 13 to choose their next president. The first in a series of elections with global ramifications in 2024, Taiwan’s vote will be a flashpoint in the tense US-China relationship. China regards Taiwan as a breakaway territory and has vowed to unify with it, by force if necessary. Taiwan has the backing of the US, which would feel pressured to come to the island’s defense in the event of a conflict with China.

The election is shaping up into a close contest between the independence-leaning candidate William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, and Hou You-ih of the Kuomintang, aka KMT, who favors closer relations with China.

We asked Eurasia Group expert Ava Shen what to watch for.

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Trump's immunity claim: US democracy in crisis
TITLE PLACEHOLDER | Ian Bremmer | World In :60

Trump's immunity claim: US democracy in crisis

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

First , how will the appeals court decision on Trump's presidential immunity claim play into your Top Risk of 2024?

Well, the top risk is the US election, the US versus itself. What we see is that Trump is having more time to campaign before decisions are made, potential convictions are made while the primaries are playing out. In other words, he's likely to get the nomination before he's going to be convicted of anything. And what that means is, he'll have all the Republicans behind him. And at that point, if he gets convicted, it's kind of too late because the people that are going to vote for him are on the other side. So, yeah, this is increasingly a democracy in crisis. That's what we're looking at in the United States in 2024.

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The Taiwan election and its AI implications
The Taiwan election and its AI implications | GZERO AI

The Taiwan election and its AI implications

Taylor Owen, professor at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University and director of its Centre for Media, Technology & Democracy, co-hosts GZERO AI, our new weekly video series intended to help you keep up and make sense of the latest news on the AI revolution. In this episode of the series, Taylor Owen looks at the first election in Taiwan and the implications it could have for the future of technology, including AI.

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Terry Gou, a 72-year-old billionaire and founder of iPhone maker Foxconn, campaigns for his presidential bid in Taipei

Eyepress images

Terry Gou says China can’t pressure him. China says ‘Watch us.’

Terry Gou is the billionaire founder of electronics giant Foxconn, the manufacturer of Apple iPhones in mainland China, and he’s one of Taiwan’s richest men. Gou has historically supported the opposition – and China-friendlier – Kuomintang, or KMT. But he recently announced that would run independently for the presidency, taking on KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih as well as more hawkish candidates.

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Terry Gou, Foxconn founder announces bid for Taiwan presidency during a press event in Taipei

Reuters

Foxconn founder joins race to become Taiwan’s president

Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of Foxconn, has thrown his hat in the ring for Taiwan’s presidency – making waves in an election that will have wide-ranging implications for the Western Pacific. Having failed to win the opposition party’s nomination, Gou will run as an independent focused on taking down the ruling Democratic People’s Party, which he blames for the increasingly fractious relationship between Taiwan and China.

But ironically, Gou’s candidacy makes a DPP win more likely in the January 2024 election by pulling votes away from the other two candidates hoping to beat DPP nominee, Vice President Lai Ching-te.

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Voter intention for Taiwan's presidential poll in 2024.

Ico Oliveira/GZERO Media

The Graphic Truth: Taiwan's surprising third-party challenger

Taiwan goes to the polls in January 2024 in what is likely the most consequential presidential election since the self-ruled island embraced democracy in 1996. As usual, the vote will be all about ... China.

Looking to replace term-limited President Tsai Ing-wen are VP William Lai, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, and Hou Yu-ih, a former top cop nominated by the opposition Kuomintang Party. The DPP and the KMT have always dominated Taiwanese politics, with the former taking a tougher line on relations with the mainland. But this time a third-party candidate wants to give them a run for their money.

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