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What We're Watching: AMLO's bittersweet victory, Boko Haram's leader is (maybe) dead, El Salvador's move towards crypto
Did AMLO win in Mexico's midterms? The governing Morena party of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador lost its two-thirds lower-house majority in Sunday's midterms, dealing a blow to the leftwing nationalist leader's bid to radically transform Mexico. Although Morena and its allies are projected to hang on to a simple majority in the lower house, winning as many as 292 of the 500 seats up for grabs, that two-thirds margin was crucial for López Obrador's ability to change the constitution, something he's threatened to do in order to carry out what he calls a "Fourth Revolution" that remakes Mexico's economy in the interests of the poor and working class. Still, López Obrador remains in a commanding position: Morena and its allies look to have picked up more than half a dozen state governorships, and they still control both houses of Congress. Most importantly, despite failing to tackle crime, corruption, or poverty since his election in 2018, the left-populist López Obrador remains immensely popular in a country where traditional conservative politicians are reviled. Chastened as he may be by the result, as he heads into the final three years of his six-year term, López Obrador isn't likely to give much ground to his rivals. Read our full write-up of the election and its implications here.
Is Boko Haram's leader dead? Abubakar Shekau, head of the Nigerian-based Boko Haram terror group, is reportedly dead, with rival militant groups saying that Shekau strapped ammunition to his body and killed himself. (Neither Boko Haram nor the Nigerian government has confirmed the report.) Since Shekau took over the group seven years ago, he has overseen a steady stream of bloody attacks, most notably in 2014 when Boko Haram militants kidnapped hundreds of school girls in Borno state, many of whom remain missing. Since then, more than 30,000 Nigerians have been killed and millions displaced. In more recent years, Boko Haram has been locked in a bloody battle for dominance with the Islamic State's West African offshoot — ISWAP. Analysts say that while Shekau's death might lower the temperature between the two rival groups, it's unlikely to change the cadence of violent attacks — though some speculate that ISWAP may try and recruit Boko Haram fighters. Whether Skekau is dead or not, Islamist violence will continue to gain momentum in West African countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, that have been gripped by violent insurgencies in recent years.
El Salvador to adopt crypto: Nayib Bukele, El Salvador's very online millennial president, said this week that his country would be the first to accept cryptocurrency as legal currency. If Bukele does send legislation to Congress in the near term it's likely to pass, given that his New Ideas party won a decisive legislative victory in February, giving Bukele a supermajority. Enthusiastic Bitcoin Bros say that there's little to lose; given that some 70 percent of El Salvadorians don't have a bank account, this shake-up would allow poor people to have increased access to personal finances. However, other analysts say that there needs to be global cryptocurrency regulation in place before national governments start accepting crypto as legal tender. Still, massive issues persist regarding how to regulate the extremely volatile and environmentally-damaging currency that is oft-used by those wanting to bypass government tracking and regulation. Indeed, if El Salvador pulls this off, it's likely that other states will follow suit.
A supporter of Felix Salgado Macedonio, who was running for governor of the state of Guerrero as a candidate of President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador's MORENA party, takes part in a demonstration outside Mexico's National Electoral Institute in Mexico City.
Mexico’s midterms: AMLO unbound?
On Sunday Mexican voters will go to the polls to elect 500 members of the lower house, roughly half of the country's governorships, more than two dozen state assemblies, and some 20,000 other local government posts. Some are calling it the largest election in the country's history.
The ruling Morena party of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, is looking to hang on to its current two-thirds majority in the lower house, and to pick up several governorships to boot.
Although his name won't be printed on a single ballot, the vote is largely seen as a referendum on AMLO himself, the leftwing nationalist who swept to power in 2018 with huge promises to tackle violence, root out graft, help the poor and, above all, break the power monopoly of the traditional political class.
So, how has AMLO done so far? His record is mixed, at best. In the first half of his six-year term, he's boosted pensions and unveiled a massive job training program for Mexico's young people. He kept Mexico's finances stable and deftly managed relations with Donald Trump, certainly no mean feat.
But the country's murder rate, at nearly 30 per 100,000 people, is still among the world's highest. Dozens of candidates in Sunday's elections have been gunned down, presumably by powerful drug cartels. By any measure, AMLO's "hugs not bullets" policy has failed.
Progress against corruption, meanwhile, has been scant. His administration has prosecuted several high profile cases, but also cut funding for the judiciary and sidelined graft watchdogs. A third of Mexicans still pay bribes for basic services, and most state contracts are awarded without competitive bids.
Additionally, AMLO mishandled the pandemic, dismissing the seriousness of COVID, refusing to free up pandemic stimulus money, and failing to secure enough vaccines early on. Mexico now has the fourth highest reported death toll in the world. Meanwhile, the pandemic has pushed nearly 10 million Mexicans into poverty.
But more than all of this, critics worry about the way the president has centralized power, clashed with electoral authorities, and threatened to change the constitution to pursue his aims — including renationalizing parts of the country's oil industry.
And yet, despite all this, AMLO is still super popular. Why? An approval rating in the 60s is impressive for a democratically-elected leader these days.
For most Mexicans — including his base among rural, elderly, and working class folks — AMLO's appeal has more to do with his persona than with his policies. He's a plainspoken and conspicuously ascetic leader who styles himself as a messiah of the masses. In a country long-accustomed to elite politicians who live lavishly and steal compulsively, that plays really well, even if violence is still raging and graft abounds.
What's more, where are those who dislike AMLO going to go? The traditional political parties now in opposition have little appeal in a country where two-thirds of people say they don't trust political parties at all.
The big question on Sunday isn't whether Morena will win. They will, handily. The party is currently polling at 40 percent, more than twice the level of any of its nearest rivals. No matter what, Morena and AMLO will continue to dominate Mexican politics.
The question is whether they'll hold that two-thirds majority. If they do, AMLO would be wholly unbound: in a much more commanding position to steamroll any opposition to his plans from now until 2024. That could include messing with the constitution.
At the moment, polls show Morena coming up a meager ten seats shy of that mark. A close result could be disputed. AMLO, and Mexico more broadly, have a lot on the line. Keep an eye on news from Mexico this weekend.
Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a news conference at the National Palace in Mexico City.
Mexico vote will test support for López Obrador’s agenda of change
Mexicans will go to the polls Sunday to choose their representatives for the lower house of congress and the governors of 15 of their country's 32 states. Halfway into President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's six-year term, the vote will test public support for his efforts to expand government control of the economy and improve living standards for all Mexicans.
The veteran leftist leader won election in a landslide in July 2018, and though he remains very popular, cracks in his support have appeared. Eurasia Group experts Ana Abad, Carlos Petersen, and Daniel Kerner explain what's at stake on Sunday for the president.
How will the midterm results affect Lopez Obrador's agenda?
The ruling Morena coalition currently holds two-thirds of the seats in the lower house of congress, which has given the president plenty of room to advance legislation to ramp up social spending, launch big infrastructure projects, and tighten regulations on private enterprise. It has also allowed him to make amendments to the constitution, which he has done to push through sweeping changes in areas such as education, the armed forces, and the compensation of government employees. The coalition holds 60 percent of the seats in the Senate and López Obrador has been able to convince a few additional senators to vote in favor of most of these amendments, though the opposition has managed to block some of the more controversial ones.
If Morena keeps its two-thirds majority in the lower house, López Obrador is expected to pursue a constitutional reform to strengthen the role of state-owned firms Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission in the country's large energy sector, essentially undoing changes made by the previous administration to attract more private investment.
What about the governor races?
Given that Morena currently governs only one of the 15 states holding elections, this electoral cycle offers the coalition a good opportunity to extend its power at the state level.
What are Morena's prospects?
One of the world's worst COVID outbreaks — with its attendant economic fallout — has had a limited impact on views of the president and the ruling coalition. López Obrador's approval ratings remain high, at nearly 60 percent. He swept to power in 2018 promising to ramp up social spending and to put an end to what many viewed as rampant corruption, and that message continues to resonate. Signs of a post-pandemic economic recovery and the vaccine rollout, though advancing slowly, are helping perceptions that conditions are improving somewhat.
But a tightening in some of the gubernatorial races could signal that discontent with the president is broader than polls are suggesting. Certainly, relations with the business community are strained, which has resulted in low levels of private-sector investment. In addition, the pandemic has been poorly managed and the president's single-minded focus on advancing priority legislation to the exclusion of nearly all else has drawn growing criticism and increased levels of polarization.
Is López Obrador transforming the country?
López Obrador claims to be turning Mexico into a more equal society after decades of governments that in his view privileged the business community and elites. He has centralized decision-making and expanded the control of the executive over all branches of government — a form of governance he views as more effective and less corrupt, though one that has prompted charges of authoritarianism. At the same time, to help finance priority projects, the president has shifted resources away from programs he does not favor and from many government agencies.
So, will these changes outlast López Obrador?
Much will depend on the outcome of the midterm elections. Mexican presidents serve a single term, so López Obrador would like to preserve his lower house majority — preferably a two-thirds majority — to allow him to continue with his agenda and choose a successor he thinks will preserve and extend his legacy. Yet even in the event that the ruling coalition fails to win more than one-half of the seats in the lower house (an unlikely outcome), prompting a situation of legislative gridlock, many of the changes López Obrador has wrought would remain. Chief among these is the new shape of government. Starved of funding, many agencies have been forced to reduce personnel and abandon functions they used to perform.
What does López Obrador's agenda mean for the US?
The Mexican president prefers to focus on domestic issues. Still, he recognizes the importance of the relationship with the US and has tried to maintain good relations with Mexico's northern neighbor, even when Donald Trump was president. López Obrador acceded to many of Trump's demands on immigration — for example, by helping stop migrant flows from Central America. Under US President Joe Biden, the bilateral relationship has reverted to its pre-Trump normal of government agencies dealing with the relevant cross-border issues.
Yet López Obrador's plans to extend state control over the country's energy industry have encountered resistance in the US, as many of the firms that invested in the sector during the opening of the previous Mexican administration are from the US. As López Obrador considers making constitutional changes to further curb private participation in the energy sector, US companies could ramp up pressure on the Biden administration to intervene on their behalf.
Ana Abad is Associate, Latin America; Carlos Petersen is Senior Analyst, Latin America; and Daniel Kerner is Managing Director, Latin America at Eurasia Group.
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Mexico’s man of the people
It's not like things are going well in Mexico.
COVID has killed more people there than in any country except the United States and Brazil. Just 2 percent of Mexicans have gotten a first vaccine jab, compared with nearly 24 in the US. The Biden administration made clear this week that it won't send vaccines to its southern neighbor until many more Americans have been vaccinated. Mexico's government has cut deals for doses from China, Russia, and India.
The pandemic has weighed heavily on Mexico's economy. In 2020, GDP fell more sharply than in any year since 1932. The first wave of coronavirus killed 12 million formal and informal jobs, and later waves have slowed the employment recovery. (Nearly 30 million people work in Mexico's informal economy.)
Deadly violence and organized crime continue to plague the country. Murder rates remain historically high across Mexico. In the state of Jalisco, 10 men and a boy died in a hail of gunfire on February 27 in an attack blamed on competition among competing drug cartels. Add their names to the 189 found murdered in that one state last year and the 18 plastic bags full of body parts discovered there in early February.
It's no wonder then that Mexico's government has weak poll numbers. A survey (Spanish) published this week by El Financiero found that just 42 percent of Mexicans surveyed said their government was doing a good job managing the pandemic, and 30 percent reported a positive view of its economic policies.
But... that same poll gave Mexico's president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, an approval rating of 63 percent, up from 61 percent in January. As he approaches the midpoint of his single six-year term — Mexico's presidents are limited to one term — the president who promised to revitalize Mexico's economy, tackle violent crime, fight corruption, and create new opportunities for the poor and marginalized seems immune to political blame.
Why is he still so well-liked? In part, it's because Mexico's political establishment, which ran the country for decades before Lopez Obrador was elected in 2018, remains deeply unpopular because many Mexicans say past governments were profoundly corrupt.
It's also because he's an authentically talented politician. Lopez Obrador's COVID response is justly criticized: He's encouraged Mexicans to continue business as usual even as the virus was spreading, and he consistently refused to wear a mask. Few were surprised when he contracted COVID-19.
But when asked why he had left himself vulnerable, he reminded voters that he had refused to break in line for early vaccination and insisted he became infected by showing up for work, as hard-working Mexicans do. Some may doubt his judgment, but recent polls say a solid majority of Mexicans consider him honest.
And no one can deny his common touch. Lopez Obrador does more than share a love of baseball with millions of Mexicans. He's shown himself willing to grab a bat and take his turn at the plate. He might need some coaching on keeping his weight on the back foot, but Mexico's 67-year-old hombre del pueblo can still drive a baseball.
Mexico faces elections on June 6. Voters will fill every seat in Mexico's lower house, and Lopez Obrador's Morena Party hopes to keep its majority. In addition, nearly half of Mexico's 32 states will choose governors. Can he remain popular enough to use his remaining three years to get things done?
Results of those elections — and the president's continuing ability to beat the political odds — will tell the tale.