Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Mexico City’s Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum poses for a picture during an interview with Reuters in Mexico City, Mexico September 22, 2022.
Mexico’s first female president takes the reins
Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as Mexico’s first female president — and first of Jewish heritage — on Tuesday, succeeding the wildly popular Andres Manuel López Obrador, whose shadow hangs heavily over the prospects for her administration. She won the June election with 60% of the vote, but as much as the people may support her, the left-leaning populist agenda she has promised to continue pursuing doesn’t always sit right with the investors the Mexican economy needs.
World leaders will be in attendance, including presidents of Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Cuba and Guatemala, and a large US delegation led by first lady Jill Biden. However, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will send his deputy prime minister in his place, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose invitation stirred controversy, will not attend. Argentinian President Javier Milei is also likely to skip, given his ideological opposition to Sheinbaum and AMLO’s left-wing ambitions.
After the celebrations, Sheinbaum has plenty on her plate. Far too many Mexicans face severe threats to their personal and communal safety from drug violence and corruption. Eurasia Group analyst Matias Gomez-Leauteaud says he’s watching how the new president addresses security in her inaugural speech, but such long-term goals may stay on the back burner for the moment.
“There are two key decisions for her in the short term, both related to economic policy: The 2025 budget, which must be presented at the latest on Nov. 15, and her selection of a new central bank deputy governor," he says. We’re watching whether Sheinbaum’s decisions can halt the slide of Mexico’s peso, which has fallen 14% against the dollar since she was elected.Demonstrators display a large Mexico flag as they protest at the Angel of Independence after a highly contested judicial reform proposal was passed in the Senate in Mexico City, Mexico September 11, 2024.
Will Mexico’s court overhaul hamper its economy?
Mexico’s senate voted 86-41 on Wednesday to approve a controversial judicial overhaul that will require the nation’s judges to stand for election in order to keep their jobs. Critics fear this will politicize Mexican justice and scare off investors crucial to the country’s prosperity. The peso weakened by 1% on Tuesday, and it is down 15% since Mexico’s June election, leaving investors worried that their assets might not be protected and that the reform could cause problems with the all-important US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade.
Incoming President Claudia Sheinbaum – she takes office on Oct. 1 – attempted to set markets at ease, saying “national and foreign investors don’t have anything to worry about,” and claiming the reforms will “strengthen the delivery of justice in our country.”
Eurasia Group country expert Matías Gómez Léautaud says the reforms will “open the door for the political capture of the judiciary as a whole, the intermission of criminal groups, as well as the consolidation of monopolistic practices.”
“Businesses operating in Mexico will struggle to have a fair trial on any given issue in which they have to reach an arbitration process,” he notes.
The only other country where top justices are elected, Bolivia, is hardly the poster child of a stable, investable democracy, and its Constitutional Court has become a tool of the ruling party to maintain power.
Sheinbaum has consistently said she is committed to seeing the reform through despite criticisms. Federal and supreme court justices will stand for election in two cycles, in 2025 and 2027, which bracket scheduled USMCA negotiations in 2026. We’re watching whether the decision sparks more protests – and how it impacts Mexico’s economy and free trade talks.
People stand outside the building of the Federal Judiciary Council as Mexico's judicial workers launched an indefinite nationwide strike ahead of votes by lawmakers on overhauling the country's judiciary, including moving to the popular election of judges, in Mexico City, Mexico August 19, 2024.
Mexican judges strike against AMLO’s proposed judicial reform
Mexico’s federal courts saw thousands of judges and their employees launch a strike on Monday against a proposed judicial overhaul that would force all federal judges in the country to stand for election. They also object to the proposed elimination of the system that handles career development and promotions within the judicial system and say the proposed changes will rob Mexico of judicial impartiality.
But outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has accused many judges of being corrupt, says his proposed reforms will help reduce corruption. Obrador sees the judicial reform as part of his “Fourth Transformation,” which he claims will make Mexico a more equitable and democratic society.
AMLO’s proposal has spooked the markets, but with majorities in Congress and his protege Claudia Sheinbaum soon taking over as president, the reforms will likely move forward. Undeterred by the long odds, the judges, clerks, and other judicial workers who went on strike are vowing to continue until AMLO backs down.Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador hands over a ceremonial baton of command to Claudia Sheinbaum after she was elected by the ruling National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) as its candidate to succeed him in 2024 in the presidential election, in Mexico City, Mexico September 7, 2023.
Mexico’s president-elect pushes controversial judicial reform
In her first press conference since winning the Mexican election in a landslide earlier this month, president-elect Claudia Sheinbaumbacked a highly controversial plan to introduce a popular vote for the country’s Supreme Court justices.
The reform is the brainchild of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO, a charismatic left(ish) populist whose Morena party won a supermajority in Congress and fell just shy of one in the Senate.
Directly electing Supreme Court justices via popular vote would put Mexico in the company of just one other country that we know of: Bolivia, where AMLO’s ideological cousin Evo Morales instituted the practice in 2009.
AMLO and his supporters say the move would introduce more accountability to a system long dominated by corrupt elites.
But critics say it would dangerously politicize the justice system, upending the rule of law right as Mexico tries to catch an investment boom from “nearshoring” – that is, the trend of US-oriented companies moving their factories out of Asia as a way to skirt US-China trade tensions and avoid future global supply chain issues.
The skeptics could be right: The Mexican peso fell 2% after Sheinbaum’s comments.
Supporters of MORENA presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum attend the closure of her presidential campaign at the Zocalo, the nation's main public square in Mexico City, on May 29, days ahead of the election on Sunday.
Viewpoint: AMLO looms large in Mexico’s upcoming elections
Ahead of the June 2 elections, two accomplished women, the ruling party’s Claudia Sheinbaum and the opposition’s Xochitl Galvez, are vying for the distinction of becoming Mexico’s first female president. Meanwhile, criminal organizations trying to assert their influence in down-ballot races are threatening and killing a record number of candidates for local office.
Yet there is an even bigger presence shaping the outcome of these elections: outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, popularly known as AMLO. Constitutionally limited to a single six-year term in office, the immensely popular leader appears to have positioned his leftist Morena party to dominate Mexican politics for another six years. We asked Eurasia Group expert Matias Gomez Leautaud to explain.
What would you say are voters’ main concerns?
Across every single poll, violence and insecurity are the top concerns, followed by the state of the economy or corruption. But what we’re seeing is that this preoccupation with crime does not seem to be influencing voter intentions in races at the national level or the state level, where this concern is most acute. You see this in states with terrible security situations governed by Morena, such as Tabasco and Chiapas, and by opposition parties, such as Guanajuato and Jalisco.
Then what is driving voter intentions?
One factor is polarization, which allows ineffective state governments to remain in power because voters perceive the alternative to be worse. But a bigger factor is the influence of Lopez Obrador, who has shifted the political environment in Morena’s favor. In the presidential race, he has been successful at positioning his protégé Sheinbaum as the candidate of continuity. A former mayor of Mexico City, she was not too well known in the rest of the country. So, starting a few years ago, the party has taken every opportunity to get her in front of voters at events outside the capital.
And how has Sheinbaum tried to position herself as the candidate of continuity?
A physicist by training, Sheinbaum got her start in politics working for Lopez Obrador when he was the mayor of Mexico City. Ahead of these elections, Sheinbaum has been disciplined in her messaging, promising to maintain and build on the president’s legacy. She has even mimicked his slow style of speaking on occasion, and once during a speech in Tabasco, Lopez Obrador’s home state, she even tried to replicate his accent. (Tabasco is a rural state with a large indigenous population in the south of the country.) These efforts to step into Lopez Obrador’s shoes have been successful; the polls suggest she could get more votes than he did in 2018.
Why is Lopez Obrador so popular?
With his rhetorical attacks against traditional political and economic elites, expansion of social programs, and hikes of the minimum wage, Lopez Obrador has created a persona of a “man-of-the-people” looking out for workers’ rights. Despite the lack of feasibility of most of his pet infrastructure projects, voters perceive him as an effective president who gets things done, unlike his predecessors.
Moreover, with his slow speech, thick Tabasco accent, and frequent jokes, Lopez Obrador has brought a new folksy style to Mexican politics that his supporters love. Millions tune in every morning to the mañaneras, press briefings that set the agenda for the country’s daily news coverage. For two hours, the silver-haired president expounds on the issues of the day, takes softball questions from friendly journalists, and mixes it up a little with jokes and music. On one memorable occasion, he responded to a US demand for trade dispute talks over Mexico’s energy policies by playing a popular Cumbia song called “Uy, qué miedo” (Ooo, so scared). As a video of the song played on a screen behind him, the president joined in the laughter of those in attendance (fun fact: In 2023, Lopez Obrador was the most-watched Spanish-speaking streamer on YouTube in Latin America).
He has also drawn accusations of authoritarianism, right?
A key part of Lopez Obrador’s agenda has been to centralize more power in the presidency, and his administration has proposed legislative changes to the electoral framework, the judiciary, and other institutions that have eroded checks and balances. At the same time, Lopez Obrador’s treatment of critical journalists has grown increasingly heavy-handed. He has testy exchanges with them at the mañaneras and on a couple of occasions has publicly disclosed their telephone numbers and other personal information. Some Mexican newspapers and television stations have quietly removed critical voices.
What is the state of the opposition?
In response to the 2018 landslide victory by Lopez Obrador and his upstart Morena party, the country’s traditional political formations failed to seize on the opportunity to rethink their approach to politics. Previous presidents and their advisers have had technocratic profiles. They studied abroad and were profiled in the media wearing nice suits and expensive watches. Though they carried out pro-market reforms most economists thought necessary, they failed to explain them in terms that ordinary people could understand. Currently, their proposals are just outright opposition to Lopez Obrador’s policies, some of which are very popular among voters. With no promise of a better future, the opposition remains focused on returning to a past that most voters don’t want.
Is Xochitl Galvez an effective candidate?
The opposition probably stumbled into the best candidate it could have. She was not initially the preferred choice of any of the three parties that make up the main opposition coalition, but she ran an effective internal campaign and secured the nomination. There was probably a political calculation that the coalition should field a female candidate to take on Sheinbaum. And Galvez has an inspiring personal story of someone who grew up in a poor village, won a scholarship to the university, and became a tech entrepreneur. Yet she has struggled to perform the difficult balancing act of distancing herself from the discredited opposition parties while retaining their support.
How long can Morena continue to dominate Mexico’s politics?
If Sheinbaum wins, she will not be as strong a president as Lopez Obrador and will face more spending constraints after the expansion of social welfare programs under the current administration. This will open an opportunity for the opposition to win back some voters. In addition to the presidential and congressional races on June 2, it will be important to monitor the results of nine governor races. If Morena is able to win most of them, it will be the overwhelmingly dominant political force in the medium term. But if it loses in key states such as Veracruz or Mexico City, this would be a sign that voters may grow disaffected from Morena sooner.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group
Delfina Gomez, candidate for governor of the State of Mexico for the Morena party, celebrates after preliminary election results are announced in Toluca.
AMLO's party wins big Mexican state, looking good for 2024
Mexico's ruling Morena Party on Sunday won a bellwether election in the State of Mexico. This is good news for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka AMLO.
For one thing, Mexico is the country's most populous state and has outsize weight in national politics as it hugs the federal capital, Mexico City, and its diverse composition signals wider voter trends. For another, the left-wing Morena defeated the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which had ruled the state for almost 100 years and is languishing in the political doldrums under AMLO.
But election night also delivered a warning for the president and his party: In a separate vote, the PRI walloped Morena in Coahuila. Although this border state is much smaller than the State of Mexico, Morena lost because party infighting resulted in the ruling coalition running three rival candidates, which siphoned key support from Morena's pick.
"AMLO will confirm that his political calculations continue to be spot-on as he managed to transfer his popularity to his party's candidate," says Eurasia Group analyst Matías Gómez Léautaud.
This is crucial for Morena to stay in power 13 months out from the presidential election since AMLO is limited to one term. It's an open secret that his preferred successor is Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, now the presumptive frontrunner despite some internal opposition. For Gómez Léautaud, "AMLO's overbearing presence and control will impede any schisms within the party to translate into rival candidacies from disaffected candidates."
Optimism about Mexico's political and economic future
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here. A happy Monday to you and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I'm just back from Mexico, Mexico City myself, and lots of fascinating meetings, lots of takeaways. Thought I would give you some of my sense of what is happening there, Mexico and Mexico's context in the world.
First thing I would say is I come away pretty optimistic about where the country is heading overall, and some of that is the context of Mexico in an environment where China-US relations are getting a lot more challenging. There is some significant national security and strategic decoupling that is happening at the behest of US administration, governors, members of Congress, both Democrats and Republicans. And also, there's a lot more uncertainty about doing business in Xi Jinping's China itself, given the rapid and sudden changes on COVID, on how to do business as a technology company, on rules and regulations for the private sector, rule of law and its absence, local competition, you name it. And so, even though I still fairly strongly believe that China's going to become the largest economy in the world by 2030, the idea that US corporations will be able to take as much advantage of that is increasingly uncertain. Almost any business leader you talk to in the United States is saying, "Yeah, China is an important market for us, but we are being more cautious about how much we want to invest there, going forward. At the very least, we're putting a pause on some of the big decisions we're making." And in many cases, they're starting to reduce some of that forward looking exposure.
Who are you going to invest towards if you're not investing in China? Well, Mexico in many ways is the country that stands to benefit the most outside of the United States. And indeed, in every meeting I had in three days in Mexico, I was hearing about near-shoring. It's a kind of awkward term, but basically the idea of multinationals based in the United States, doing a lot more on the ground in Mexico. Mexico's the 15th largest economy in the world. It is a large population, it's quite young, it's hardworking. The demographic's increasingly very attractive and it's strongly integrated into the US economy and supply chains. The fact that Tesla had just announced a $10 billion investment near Monterey while I was there was a big boost, a shot in the arm for the Mexican economy that a lot of people were talking about.
And so as a consequence, I mean, there's no question I meant think back on Lula's days, his first time around as president and how much his popularity was benefited by the fact that the economy was in a commodity super cycle and indeed, led to some 80%, even 90% of times approval ratings. I think that right now, Mexico benefits significantly from right place, right time, given what's happening geopolitically.
Now, looking to Mexico itself, I have to say that I was also surprised that Mexico's CEOs and bankers, who have been enormously negative pre-pandemic about then new President AMLO, and he doesn't like him, he doesn't want to talk to him, he's going to be a disaster, he is going to lead the economy into ruin, this time around, I heard still plenty of criticism, but also a recognition from the CEOs in Mexico and the bankers that, "Well, actually, he's not been as bad as we expected." What do you mean by that? Well, he hasn't actually raised taxes, he hasn't spent money on the fiscal balance that the government doesn't have. In fact, in many ways, he's been conservative as a leader in terms of small government, fiscal hawkishness. Mexico's debt to GDP is 50% right now and has stayed stable despite the pandemic. That's caused some challenges in terms of the ability of Mexico to make large scale investments into its domestic economy, given the pandemic. But nonetheless has made the business community feel more comfortable with him.
Instead, there's been a focus on tax collection and on reducing government expenditure. So much so that there's a problem on execution, weakening and inefficient, but nonetheless, comparatively talented civil service in Mexico. It's a reason why when you go to the World Bank or the IDB, you see so many former Mexico technocrats in the bureaucracy, because they were always seen to be some of the most talented from all of the Western hemisphere. Overall, I would say the Mexican economy is positioned to do quite well over the coming, let's say five, 10 years.
The domestic political issues are the biggest concerns. In particular, President Lopez Obrador going after his country's electoral institute, trying to take away some 80% of their funding, which would, if it went through, undermine the ability of Mexico to have free and fair elections. And there's really no justification for that decision. AMLO claims it's because he actually won the 2006 election, which was razor thin decided against him. And it's also why he was quite late to congratulate Biden on his 2020 win, you might remember that. And even some of his own supporters are befuddled by it, since AMLO's Morena party is likely to win upcoming elections anyway. Unlike Trump, Erdogan, Orban, Bolsonaro, all of these leaders, it's not like AMLO needs to gut Mexico's democracy in order to keep his party in power. But the other point is that he's also likely to fail at this so-called electoral reform as Mexico's Supreme Court will rule against the so-called reform. And there've also been massive demonstrations against it across Mexico, largely from the middle and upper classes, showing the power of Mexico's civil society which is hardly going away. This is not going to become an autocracy, just as Brazil hasn't, just as the United States hasn't.
And when he fails, he's almost certainly going to call his supporters against the corrupt Supreme Court, as he would have it, all of which does undermine rule of law in the country. I will say that I am less worried about this than some in the same way that I was less worried about January 6th in the US as not a coup, or January 8th in Brazil as not a coup and not able to fundamentally undermine democracy in these countries. In part because I fully expect AMLO will be out after his single constitutionally mandated six-year term, and I also think that either of his potential Morena party successors won't have the same charisma or capacity to pursue these sorts of policies.
But also, and here I think this isn't appreciated by many of AMLO's opponents, I do think that there are real issues here. I mean, AMLO is broadly skeptical of all sorts of, as he calls them, neo-liberal conservative elites, that's a mouthful, and their institutions, because they've had enormous access and influence across the board historically, including in the judiciary. They really could shape policy or stop initiatives, given their influence over all branches of government. There has been corruption. There has been a lot of corruption in the distribution of social benefits, in influence over Congress and legislation in procurement processes. Tax authority, where the Mexican government had been clearly letting companies off the hook, which AMLO has tried to change at least somewhat successfully. And I think part of the elite anger at this administration is that the elites can no longer influence the regulatory and legislative policy as they could before. And while the judiciary is an important and necessary check on AMLO's power, it's also hard to argue that economic elites haven't had undue influence on Mexico's court system. Both of those things are actually true.
There are other places I could spend time, there's been very limited success in curtailing violence in Mexico, dealing with the drug cartels. That's a long history of failure in Mexico and I don't come away any more optimistic from my trip in Mexico this week. I am a little bemused by the criticism though, that AMLO doesn't travel internationally enough. And it's true, he almost never leaves the country. He's been five years in office now, I think he's been to the United States four times, each time for one day. And he made one trip to Central America and Cuba and that's it. I mean, for the head of a G-20 economy, that is unheard of. And he also doesn't really care.
But I want to say it's not like there's any particular debate about Mexico's development model. It's not like people are saying, "Oh, maybe we need to work more with Europe or hedge with China." AMLO has zero interest in that and indeed, one of the first things he mentioned to me was his concern that China's growth would unbalance the geopolitical order and lead to conflict. There's something that underpins this that's very important, which is last year, Mexico's trade with Texas was five times its total trade with all of Latin America.
Unlike Brazil, unlike other developing countries where there's lots of discussion about potential competing development models, there really isn't with Mexico. It is a US and USMCA focused model and I think appropriately so. Meanwhile, AMLO has been traveling relentlessly across Mexico by car or on commercial airlines, meeting with the Mexican people. And he's the first president in a very long time that's spent that kind of time with Mexico's poor across the country and that's a big piece of his popularity, which has been quite high over the course of his entire term. I personally would like it if he would travel more because I care about foreign policy. But in the context of Trump's America First or Biden's US foreign policy for an American middle class, you can certainly understand that you can have more sympathy.
And I think about my own friend, Iván Duque, who I've known very well for years now, the former Colombian president, he's loved by the Washington establishment, but ultimately was very unpopular in Colombia, in part because he was seen as being kind of a creature of Washington consensus and not as interested in Colombia. And I think AMLO completely gets that in today's geopolitical environment, that just doesn't play.
I think the right comparison for AMLO on the global stage is Modi, India's prime minister, in terms of he's from the underclass. In the case of Modi, from the under caste, focuses on the underclass and wants to take on colonial elites and their institutions that have always been unpopular with the average people in the country. That includes the independent media and NGOs which are viewed, even if somewhat unfairly, as educated elites that don't care about the people and haven't historically.
By the way, when I mentioned the Modi comparison to AMLO, he immediately liked it. In fact, recognizes that he doesn't do as well in Mexico as Modi does in India because Modi also has the Hindu nationalism call card that he can play and does play, which AMLO is certainly not doing in terms of Catholicism and the role in Mexico's government institutions. Now, of course, that's a mixed bag. Because while Modi has become an essential friend to the United States as a part of the Quad, the relationship can only get so close and there is that tension between the United States and Mexico, and the West and Mexico accordingly.
But I do think that putting all of that in context gives you a lot more balance about what's happening in Mexico right now and Mexico's role with the US and Mexico's role that it doesn't have with a lot of the rest of the world than we've been reading in a lot of the media, and as a consequence, I thought it was really interesting to talk about it.
Anyway, that's it for me and I'm delighted that I've had a chance to get back there and I'm sure I will be again real soon, and I hope everyone is well. Talk to you soon.
- What We’re Watching: Biden in Mexico, Japan's Kishida on tour, Ukraine’s eastern flank ›
- What We’re Watching: Biden at the border, Three Amigos Summit, China’s reopening ›
- Immigration a Biden priority at Three Amigos Summit ›
- Can AMLO live up to Mexico’s critical moment? Jorge Ramos discusses ›
- The Graphic Truth: Bracing for a surge at the US-Mexico border ›
- AMLO wants a popular successor - GZERO Media ›
- Why Mexico is a key issue in the 2024 US election - GZERO Media ›
- Trump trial: How would a conviction hurt his reelection bid? - GZERO Media ›
Northern Ireland trade deal ends Brexit but not UK's economic woes
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the UK finally move past Brexit now that a Northern Ireland trade deal has been resolved?
Oh, it's only been, what, six years. My God. And Brexit finally concluded now that Prime Minister Sunak has taken on his own Conservative Party and said, "No, we're just going to finally move on this." And people are sick of the economic challenges, that's, in part, why Truss got washed out so quickly as former PM, and it's also why he had the space to get this done. It means that you're not worried about the so-called hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and therefore, between the UK and the EU, and it means that the Brits can move on. But moving on, of course, still means that they no longer have integration with the world's largest common market, and that means that their performance economically will continue to drag below all of the rest of Europe and the United States, and that's really unfortunate. It's a massive own goal.
Will recent violence in the West Bank escalate into something more?
I expect so. I mean, keep in mind that you have no effective governance for the Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza, you've got an incredibly right-wing coalition government led by Bibi Netanyahu, with only the thinnest of margins to keep the coalition intact, and no interest in moving forward on a two-state solution, and a great deal of interest in taking more land from the Palestinians. I saw an op-ed written in Haaretz, an Israeli center-left newspaper, just the other day, that claimed that Netanyahu was pushing forward a policy apartheid. You don't see that kind of commentary in Israeli newspapers about their own government. This all implies a lot more fighting between Israelis and Palestinians. The Americans inflectionally pushing from the sidelines, nobody really prioritizing the conflict or the issue, either in the region or in Washington, and certainly the Israelis and the Palestinians not having remote political interests try to back down and come to the table. All of that implies a lot more fighting going forward.
Why are Mexicans protesting AMLO's electoral law change as well?
Because he's trying to undermine the influence of the electoral commission. New legislation being put forward, some of it seemed to be against the Constitution and pushed back by the Supreme Court in Mexico, but some of it moving forward. People are angry, just like they have been in lots of countries, lots of democracies, where democratic institutions are getting weakened. For example, in Israel on the Supreme Court, you've seen massive demonstrations. That's basically what you're seeing right now in Mexico, an awful lot of people turning out on the streets, as we saw last weekend, against an effort to undermine checks and balances in a democratic country. The good news is that these democratic institutions are stronger and more resilient than a lot of the headlines would have you believe.