We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.

Eric Chu, Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) chairman, Hou Yu-ih, KMT presidential candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, former Taiwan president and Ke Wen-je, presidential candidate from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) pose after thier meeting on November 15, 2023.
The two main Taiwanese opposition parties are deadlocked over how to interpret the polls that will determine which of their preferred presidential candidates squares up against incumbent party candidate William Lai in January. If they don’t reach an agreement by Wednesday — it’s looking unlikely — Lai’s probable victory will likely raise tensions across the Taiwan Strait and pose problems for the US-China relationship.
Last week, the Kuomintang Party, backing Hou Yu-ih, and the Taiwan People’s Party, backing Ko Wen-je, announced an agreement by which one of the two men would bow out based on the results of public and internal polling. Doing so would prevent splitting the opposition vote and put Lai under serious pressure. However, by Sunday, each side was squabbling about which specific polls merited inclusion and how to measure the margin of error.
There’s still a chance they can smooth it out, but they’ll need to act fast, says Eurasia Group Taiwan expert Ava Shen. The candidates need to be registered by Friday to be on the ballot come January.
Should they fail, Lai’s chances of winning remain high, much to the chagrin of officials in Beijing who would prefer the more dovish cross-strait policies of either Hou or Ko. Lai’s recent announcement that Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s former representative to the US, will be his running mate has done nothing to alleviate Beijing’s concerns. Hsiao was deeply involved in organizing former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit last year, which infuriated China and caused a major rupture in US ties.
“[Hsiao’s] nomination has further convinced Beijing that this is not a government that Beijing could work with if they come to power,” said Shen. “And, in turn, Beijing would perceive more utility in cranking up the pressure on Taiwan through military means and through economic coercion measures.”