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Europe’s last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
Frequently called Europe's last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko Lukashenko has sailed smoothly to victory in all six elections he's stood in, despite widespread corruption and fraud in each one. But in 2020 the biggest threat so far to Lukashenko's tight grip on government came in an unlikely package—a former schoolteacher and stay at home mom, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. After the election result was finalized, Lukashenko claimed victory, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets, and Tsikhanouskaya leads the opposition in exile. Lukashenko recently took his boldest move yet, diverting a plane en route from Greece to Lithuania to arrest another Belarusian dissident. Ian Bremmer discusses whether a democratic transition is remotely possible in Belarus on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
- Life under dictatorship in Belarus - GZERO Media ›
- Flight diversion in Belarus is a criminal act - GZERO Media ›
- What the EU will — and won't — do about Belarus - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus protesters vs “Psycho 3%” - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions - GZERO Media ›
The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
Is there a path to democracy for Europe's last dictatorship, Belarus? Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya discusses her hopes and fears for the country with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. President Alexander Lukashenko has maintained a tight grip on power in Belarus for the last 26 years and rigged the results of his last election which led to widespread protest and unrest in his country, though few consequences globally. But will he now be held accountable after diverting a flight between two European capitals to arrest a dissident journalist? And just how close are he and Vladimir Putin?
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- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
Life under dictatorship in Belarus
What should you put in your bag before leaving home in Belarus nowadays if you openly criticize the government? Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya recommends packing an extra pair of pants and socks in case you get kidnapped or thrown in jail because under strongman President Alexander Lukashenko, you "feel that you don't have rights at all."
Her conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of an interview on the upcoming episode of GZERO World, which begins airing on US public television Friday, June 11. Check local listings.
Authoritarian Airlines
Co-captains Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin have an important pre-flight safety announcement.
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What We're Watching: Russia backs Belarus, Biden warns Ethiopian PM, Hong Kong approves Beijing's overhaul
Russia wades into EU-Belarus row: Now that the European Union and Belarus are at loggerheads over the brazen hijacking of an EU flight to arrest a dissident journalist, Vladimir Putin wants a piece of the action. In response to Brussels encouraging EU airplanes to avoid Belarusian skies, Russia says it will block those airlines from Russian airspace. It's unclear whether Putin is doing this to support his frenemy, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, or to sow division within the bloc after it approved unusually swift, albeit limited, sanctions against Belarus. Putin may be guessing that Brussels won't go much further because the EU is dependent on Russian oil and gas that transits through pipelines in Belarus. Either way, Putin's move will likely put more pressure on the EU to decide whether it doubles down on tougher sanctions against Lukashenko, or backs off a bit. And it demonstrates that Russia's leader, channeling his inner Rahm Emanuel, never lets a good crisis go to waste.
Biden warns on Tigray war: US President Joe Biden has called for a cease-fire in the brutal ongoing conflict between Ethiopian government forces and separatist fighters in the region of Tigray, calling out "large-scale human rights abuses." The statement came a day after the UN warned of famine in the region, and three days after Washington cut aid to Ethiopia and imposed travel restrictions on combatants on both sides of the war. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is facing growing international scrutiny over allegations of war crimes and ethnic cleansing campaigns carried out by government forces and allied fighters from neighboring Eritrea. Abiy's government, which has repeatedly cut internet service and obstructed free reporting in Tigray, denies the charges and has threatened to "re-assess" its relationship with long-time ally Washington. Does the Biden administration really have the will and the leverage to stop the violence?
Hong Kong approves China's political shake-up: Hong Kong's legislature has passed sweeping electoral reforms just two months after Beijing proposed a massive overhaul of the city's political system. Under the new laws, the number of parliamentary seats will be expanded by 20 to 90, but less than a quarter will now be directly elected by Hong Kongers. Moreover, the new law also sets up committees to vet legislative candidates, ensuring that those who want to serve are sufficiently "patriotic" for Beijing. This political overhaul comes in the wake of the passage of a draconian national security law last year, as well as a series of bills in recent months that further erode Hong Kong's remaining democratic characteristics. Importantly, these developments make it all but impossible for pro-democracy candidates to even sit in the legislature, let alone significantly influence the city's politics as they had for decades.
What the EU will — and won’t — do about Belarus
The European Union on Monday agreed to sanction Belarus for having used a fighter jet and a bomb threat to ground a Vilnius-bound EU commercial airplane in order to arrest a dissident journalist. Along with the usual strongly-worded statements and in an unusually swift move, the bloc banned its sole airline from EU airspace and airports, and asked EU airlines to avoid Belarusian airspace.
Brussels also expanded current economic and travel sanctions against the regime led by strongman President Alexander Lukashenko. But tougher measures than that? Unlikely.
These garden-variety EU sanctions won't accomplish much. They will make it harder for Belarusians — including the president's cronies — to do business with and travel to the EU. But they won't persuade Lukashenko to release 26-year-old Roman Protasevich, the wanted man aboard the plane.
The founder of the independent news site Nextra is one of Lukashenko's top critics in exile. The president holds Protasevich personally responsible for (virtually) organizing mass street protests last summer, an offense that could put him behind bars for 15 years.
A calculated risk. For Lukashenko, aware that pulling off such an audacious stunt would outrage EU leaders, the benefit of silencing an influential adversary clearly outweighed the risk of triggering strong backlash in the form of sanctions, a storm he's successfully weathered in the past.
In fact, since the last time the EU imposed sanctions — in response to his crackdown on protesters and his refusal to re-run a rigged election — Lukashenko has intensified his crackdown on dissidents and the media. Just last week he passed a law that authorizes police to shoot protesters.
Why does the EU have so little leverage with Belarus? Brussels has the same problem with Minsk it has with Moscow, which we've written about before. The EU needs Russian energy to keep the lights on, and a decent amount of its imported oil and gas flows through pipelines that traverse... Belarus.
If the EU really wanted to hurt Lukashenko, it would temporarily stop buying the Russian oil and gas that Belarus collects handsome transit fees for. But the EU would then be shooting itself in the foot, not to mention that such a move — perhaps supported by France — would be fiercely opposed by Germany and Eastern European member states that rely on that route for their energy. It would also mean picking yet another fight with the more formidable Vladimir Putin.
Moreover, whether that option would be enough to get Lukashenko to back off is unlikely, given that in the past he has regularly threatened to cut off the EU from the Russian oil and gas spigot when Brussels pushed him too hard on democracy and human rights.
"Cockroach" economy. Finally, the Belarusian economy has a lot in common with Russia's, which is often compared by some economists to a cockroach: primitive in many ways, but highly resilient to pain. Its main export is potash fertilizer, which Belarus can easily sell to other countries to offset a possible EU ban. Foreign direct investment currently stands at a dismal 2 percent of GDP, so any trade restrictions arising from sanctions would have little effect.
Regardless, the EU has to do something because it can't afford the cost of inaction. Even weak sanctions will send a message, and cause enough pain for Lukashenko to think twice about hijacking an EU flight if an exiled opposition leader happens to be on the manifest.
More importantly, though, taking no action at all would show that Brussels not only pays lip service to its own commitment to the rule of law, but is also powerless to protect EU citizens from brazen acts of state-sponsored terror. And it would embolden Lukashenko to crack down even harder on those who still oppose him in Belarus and abroad.- Putin is still winning - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus protesters vs “Psycho 3%” - GZERO Media ›
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- Life under dictatorship in Belarus - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
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EU likely to declare Belarus airspace unsafe, wider response to follow
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, discusses Belarus' diversion of a Ryanair flight and the European Union's response:
What is really happening with Belarus?
Well, what Lukashenko did yesterday was completely unacceptable. It was air piracy, state sponsored air piracy. And if this is allowed to stand, then no one can fly in the world. If dictators all over the world can pick aircraft out of the sky with a fighter or two in order to arrest people that they dislike, then the entire regime of commercial air transport in the world is gone.
What will the EU do?
I think you will see quite strong EU reaction coming out of the meeting that is ongoing as we speak in Brussels. I think you will see Belarus airspace declared unsafe. I think the Belarus state airline is, in terms of its link with Europe, is in for trouble. But then I think there has to be a wider response together with the Americans as well, in order to really see Belarus as a bandit within the entire system of international commercial air transportation and take measures accordingly.
Flight diversion in Belarus is a criminal act
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer, here. Happy Monday to you. And yeah, I'm not in New York. I'm in Nantucket for a few days, working as usual, but I'm willing, I'm trying will summer into being. And the shirt, if nothing else, is annoying and distracting people and making me feel more summery.
But not so summery in Belarus, my goodness. The Belarusian president, illegitimate ostensibly reelected through fake elections, President Alexander Lukashenko. You remember all of the demonstrations against him, the support for the opposition movement in Europe and the United States. Not so much in Russia and President Putin and kind of petered out and police repression and he gets to still run the country, Mr. Lukashenko. And now, has engaged in what European leaders are calling state terrorism. Certainly, a hijacking, a level of piracy, with a Ryanair plane, that's an Ireland flagged carrier, going from Athens to Vilnius, two NATO allies, two European union members, through Belarusian airspace. And the Belarusians force the plane down to Minsk because a passenger on the plane is a Belarusian opposition journalist, and they have wanted him in jail. He's been a thorn for the Belarusian government and the president.
This is a shocking breach of international law and will lead to some consequences. But let's first just talk about what happened. There were apparently a few members of intelligence, Belarusian intelligence, a couple Russian citizens as well. We don't know whether it was Belarusian intelligence, KGB types on with Russian passports or whether Russia was involved itself in supporting the Belarusian operation. But while the airplane was still in Belarusian space, the Belarusian intel on the plane got into a fight with the crew, said that there was a bomb threat, an improvised explosive device on the plane. The pilots put out an SOS to the Belarusian government. Belarus scrambled a fighter jet. Said that the closest airport was Minsk. That's not actually true. It was Vilnius at that point. And forced the plane down. And all of the passengers, some American nationals, mostly European nationals, probably pretty petrified through all of this. But this journalist, Belarusian journalist, and his girlfriend who is a Russian citizen, also involved in this Telegram website that they'd set up, very significant, to the extent that there's any opposition left in Belarus. They were two of the more important players. Taken off the plane. In custody, presently. Certainly facing many years in jail. The Belarusian government did a perfunctory check for bombs. Didn't find any, and they obviously weren't going to, and then the Ryanair plane was allowed to proceed.
Again, this is behavior to rogue state. It's criminal state action. Clearly needs to be some level of retaliation against Belarus. It's going to be hard to make that happen. We've seen all sorts of European political condemnation and American condemnation from Secretary of State Tony Blinken, but I don't think much is going to happen. You can imagine that there will be no more overflight for some of the regional planes over Belarus, but for major international carriers, especially that already avoid Ukraine for security concerns, it would be costly. Not clear to me that's going to happen. You could stop the Belarusian flag carrier from flying into European capitals. Maybe they'll do that. There could be additional sanctions, including sectorial sanctions placed against Belarus, but that requires unanimous EU consent. And especially given the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, who is quite supportive of the Belarusians and the Russians, unlikely they would support anything significant or meaningful that would really hurt Belarus.
Meanwhile, the United States, you've seen there's been at least an effort to try to normalize Russia relations, backing away from direct sanctions on Nord Stream 2, a reasonably productive and constructive meeting between Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov from Russia last week in Reykjavik. Much different than what we saw in Anchorage between the Americans and the Chinese, and the Biden administration seen as comparatively soft and risk averse in terms of calling for ceasefire and putting pressure on the sides in Israel, Hamas/Gaza fighting that ended a week ago.
In other words, what I think is most likely to happen is the Belarusian government gets away with this. They have their opposition member in jail, and who knows if they give them a death sentence or not. They continue to run their government with impunity. The Americans and the Europeans are seen as somewhat feckless and incapable in foreign policy, more divisions. And those that are willing to take risks, increasingly get away with them. It is not what you want to see. And certainly, a very disturbing moment in Europe for, I mean, those that were believing that the trouble being caused by the Russians was really only in Ukraine and Belarus itself, not something that could affect the Europeans more directly, especially as you see so many European governments more willing to trade with the Russians, engage in investment and tourism and the rest. This will have a somewhat chilling effect. But in reality, it will be sort of a collective shrug and let's move on.
You'll see some responses in social media, from trolls, either hailing from or supported by the Belarusian regime or the Russian government, Russian state media. Russian state media has been very, very supportive of the Lukashenko illegal action and they won't respond on, on what Lukashenko is doing. They'll instead say, "Well, what about when the Americans shot down the Iranian civilian airliner?" Or a more recently, "What about when the Americans worked with the Europeans to ground President Evo Morales's plane on suspicion that Edward Snowden was being transported by him." And I am certainly not a person who is trying to legitimize historic and illegal actions by the United States or other countries around the world. The United States is the most powerful democracy in the world. It is not the most legitimate. Let's be clear. It doesn't support human rights to the extent that the Canadians do or the Germans do or other countries. But that has absolutely nothing to do with the behavior of Belarus over the weekend. And you have to call that out. And whataboutism being the refuge of some of the most polarized and dishonest people on the web. And so we'll do our best to continue to call those out, while being honest about ourselves as well.
But this is clearly a criminal act by an illegitimate Belarusian regime. It should not be tolerated. It likely mostly will be tolerated if we leave the diplomatic rhetoric away. And that of course, describes so well the GZERO world, that we've been talking about for quite a while now here, and is increasingly a real challenge for the proper functioning of an international system.
So that's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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