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Putin aims to draw Belarus into Ukraine war
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics.
What's the mood in the transatlantic relationship?
Well, not bad. Certainly not, but not as good as it should be. There's been or there is a substantial European irritation with a very high level of subsidies that is given to industries in the US, excluding European deliveries of electric vehicles and energy investments and things like that. And that is causing a somewhat of a mini crisis that I hope will be resolved in the next few months. Let's hope for the best.
What is Mr. Putin doing in Minsk, in Belarus these days?
Well, it's fairly obvious that he's trying to press Belarus and Lukashenko in a far more active role in his aggression against Ukraine. He is now looking medium- and long-term at that particular war. He's probably going to make another go for Kyiv when his new army mobilized hundred thousands of people, when his new army is ready, that he needs Belarus on board. That's in all probability, the meaning of his visit to Minsk today.
Europe’s last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
Frequently called Europe's last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko Lukashenko has sailed smoothly to victory in all six elections he's stood in, despite widespread corruption and fraud in each one. But in 2020 the biggest threat so far to Lukashenko's tight grip on government came in an unlikely package—a former schoolteacher and stay at home mom, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. After the election result was finalized, Lukashenko claimed victory, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets, and Tsikhanouskaya leads the opposition in exile. Lukashenko recently took his boldest move yet, diverting a plane en route from Greece to Lithuania to arrest another Belarusian dissident. Ian Bremmer discusses whether a democratic transition is remotely possible in Belarus on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
- Life under dictatorship in Belarus - GZERO Media ›
- Flight diversion in Belarus is a criminal act - GZERO Media ›
- What the EU will — and won't — do about Belarus - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus protesters vs “Psycho 3%” - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions - GZERO Media ›
What We're Watching: Brussels vs Belarus, South Africa's COVID corruption, a fresh fix for the WHO?
The EU's Belarus problem: While Belarus' strongman president Alexander Lukashenko vowed on Wednesday to crack down on the thousands of Belarusians still protesting against the country's recently-rigged elections, EU member states were convening for an emergency session on the country's deepening crisis. So far, the European Commission has pledged 53 million euros to support Belarusians, including two-million going towards those wounded in the recent government crackdown, as well as 1 million aimed at bolstering an independent media that has been under assault for decades. Most of the funds will go towards the country's post-pandemic economic recovery. However, to date, the EU has not explicitly called for Lukashenko to step aside and has failed to reach a consensus on whether to hit Minsk with sanctions. That's because some member states, such as Hungary, are friendly with Lukashenko, and have called for more dialogue with Minsk, rather than punitive measures. But power brokers in Brussels, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, have made it clear that swift action must be taken to protect the Belarusian people, and to stave off a potential Russian intervention in the crisis by Lukashenko's longtime frenemy Vladimir Putin (i.e. Ukraine 2.0).
South Africa's COVID corruption probe: South African special investigators allege that government institutions, including the capital city's health department, cut crooked deals for coronavirus-related tenders — including for PPE procurement, quarantine sites and disinfectant equipment — totaling a whopping $290 million. It's the latest challenge for President Cyril Ramaphosa who took over as head of the African National Congress party (ANC) in 2018 after the ouster of the party's disgraced former leader Jacob Zuma. At the time, Ramaphosa pledged to root out corruption, bring "ethics into politics," and revive the country's battered economy, but attempts at reform have so far proven elusive, largely because of dysfunction and competing factions within the ANC itself.
A different way to fix the WHO: US President Donald Trump isn't the only one who thinks the World Health Organization is too weak, poorly funded, and beholden to national interests to do its job well — it turns out France and Germany agree with him. But unlike Trump, who is walking out on the organization, Paris and Berlin are proposing massive reforms that would give it more money and stronger oversight powers, according to a Reuter's exclusive. The details of the proposal are yet to be ironed out ahead of discussions as soon as next month. We're watching to see three things. First, how do Germany and France plan to get countries to pony up more dough in the middle of a global recession? Can they really give the WHO more muscle to force member states to do things that are in the interest of global public health? And lastly, are the skeptical Americans and the Chinese going to agree?
Europe offers support to Beirut; all eyes on Lukashenko's election
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, with the view from Europe:
How will Europe help with the catastrophe in Beirut?
You will see Europe mobilizing quite a lot of help. President Macron of France rushed there. That's natural due to the historical links between France and Lebanon, but also the European Commission and other countries are now mobilizing quite substantially. We are nearby. We have an interest in helping them.
Will the upcoming presidential election in Belarus destabilize the leadership or the opposition of President Lukashenko?
Yes and no. It's obvious that the mood has been shifting in the country and there is significant opposition. People are tired of him after 26 years and he has mishandled the COVID thing and X numbers of things, the economy is not performing very well. But he will probably announce that he's won the election, irrespective of the real result. And the interesting question is, what happens thereafter? Will people just go home and say, "it's as usual." Or will we see protests? And how will these protests be handled? So, Minsk is not normally on the radar screen, but next week, Minsk is the place to watch.