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Graph showing the rise of the missing persons in Mexico from 2000-2024.
Mexico’s missing are a growing issue
Last Saturday, thousands of Mexicans marked the International Day of the Disappeared by taking to the streets of the country’s major cities, imploring the government to do more to find an estimated 130,000 missing persons. The growing movement has put pressure on President Claudia Sheinbaum, who made addressing this issue a pillar of her campaign.
Much to Sheinbaum’s and the country’s dismay, the problem seems to be getting worse. The total number of missing people in Mexico increased 12% in 2025, after growing 6.3% in 2024 and 7.3% in 2023, according to the Mexican Institute of Human Rights and Democracy.
While missing people have been a serious issue in the North American country of over 130 million people since the 1950s, the problem became much more widespread beginning in 2007 after then-President Felipe Calderón declared a “war on drugs.”
Calderón’s proclamation – and subsequent military crackdown on the drug cartels – created power vacuums between these crime groups, as smaller ones battled one another to fill the void left by the largest groups that government forces took out.
“The violence erupted very quickly once the war on the cartels began,” said Eurasia Group’s Mexico analyst Andrea Villegas. “So that leads to more inter cartel violence as well, because when one group is dismantled, rival organizations fight to seize its territory and establish control.”
Violence has continued between the cartels, says Villegas, and the fighting has contributed to the dramatic rise in disappearances.
It isn’t just cartel-on-cartel violence, though. These criminal organizations also lure young recruits through false job ads, then use killing or disappearances as a means of punishment to keep order within the camp. They also want to maintain social control in areas where they already enjoy a great deal of power, like Guadalajara, a major city in western Mexico. And they use this violence as a preventative or retaliatory measure, once murdering a group of young police recruits training for a special unit whose purpose was to combat the cartels.
One of the most famous cases of cartel-on-civilian violence occurred in 2014, when one crime organization – with the help of corrupt police officials – seized 43 students from Iguala in southern Mexico. Eleven years on, only three of these students’ remains have been found.
Why can’t the authorities find these people? Those murdered are often buried by the cartels in mass graves, with their remains contaminated to make it extremely difficult to identify the bodies or determine the cause of death. The existence of these horrific sites has become so frequent that Mexicans are no longer as shocked by their discovery.
But in March, the country was shaken again. When volunteers searching for their missing relatives were given a tip about another mass grave site outside of Guadalajara, they instead found something resembling an extermination camp. It was replete with cremation ovens and burnt remains.
Mexico isn’t the only Latin American country to face this issue. Argentina’s military junta killed or disappeared an estimated 30,000 people during the late 1970s and early 1980s, often by dropping them from planes. Guatemala’s 36-year civil war included the disappearances of some 40,000 people. Brazil’s military dictatorship of 1965 to 1984 quashed dissent by seizing, killing and disappearing the dissidents of the regime – this was memorialized in last year’s Oscar-winning film “I’m Still Here.”
But Mexico’s issue is a current one, and the numbers are even greater.
What is the government doing about it? Elected last year, Sheinbaum has abandoned her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) policy of “Abrazos, no balazos” (hugs, not bullets), which prioritized economic development as a means to diminish cartel power. She has taken a more aggressive approach to confronting the issue.
“Sheinbaum is trying to do this coordination between states and police forces in order to be able to trace why a body started in Chiapas [in the South] and ended in Sinaloa [along the West Coast],” said Villegas.
Sheinbaum’s government has claimed that the approach is working, saying that homicides in the country have fallen 25%. However, the data for this stat isn’t publicly available. What’s more, the spiking number of disappearances tells a different story.
This could have political consequences for Mexico’s first female president. By identifying this issue a key part of her campaign, Sheinbaum has made the number of cartel disappearances a key metric for whether she can be deemed a successful leader. Right now, the data isn’t going in the right direction.
“Every single mass grave and data that comes out kind of points that this is going to be a much larger [issue],” said Villegas. “I think that it’s more a cause of the lack of security strategy that AMLO had, and she’s going to be reaping the consequences of this, but it is going to be her responsibility to respond.”
Is the US preparing to strike Venezuela?
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian breaks down escalating US actions toward Venezuela.
Ian explains why Venezuela isn’t making headlines, but should be. The Trump administration recently designated Venezuela’s powerful Tren de Aragua cartel a terrorist organization, directly tied Nicolás Maduro to another drug cartel, Cartel de los Soles, doubled the bounty on Maduro’s head to $50 million, and authorized the Pentagon to target cartels in Venezuela and Mexico.
Most strikingly, the US has deployed three guided missile destroyers and other ships to Venezuela’s coast, a clear show of force that suggests options beyond drug interdiction.
Military strikes are not inevitable, but Ian notes the dots are being connected. Any action would likely resemble past US strikes on Iran: a sudden, limited but heavy show of power, not a long war.
Still, labeling Maduro a narco-terrorist opens the door to broader moves against his regime, a possibility to watch closely in the coming weeks.
US President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., attend a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on August 26, 2025.
Washington’s double game in Venezuela: Warships, oil tankers, and uncertain outcomes
– By Tony Frangie Mawad
The turquoise Caribbean waters off Venezuela now carry two rival fleets under the same flag. One consists of US destroyers, an amphibious squadron and a nuclear submarine deployed as part of US President Donald Trump’s newest offensive against Latin American drug cartels. The other is Chevron oil tankers loading Venezuelan crude and heading north, supplying US refineries.
This duality is indicative of the Trump administration’s internal conflict over how to deal with Venezuela. While figures like Special Envoy Richard Grenell and MAGA influencer Laura Loomer dismiss “regime change” rhetoric and prioritize access to Venezuela’s oil reserves – the world’s largest – Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other Florida Republicans push for sanction-centered “maximum pressure” and alignment with opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia.
The strain comes after the contested July 28, 2024, presidential elections in Venezuela, when – despite overwhelming evidence of an opposition landslide victory – the Maduro government deepened repression and clung to power despite its unpopularity. The opposition, with no institutional leverage and facing a security apparatus loyal to the country’s ruling socialists, pinned its hopes on external pressure. Opposition leader Machado therefore welcomed Trump’s naval deployment, praising “the firm and brave decision to dismantle the criminal enterprise that has seized Venezuela.” She and Rubio link President Nicolás Maduro not only to alleged drug trafficking group, “Cartel of the Suns,” but also to the transnational criminal gang Tren de Aragua (TdA), portraying the Venezuelan regime as the “criminal hub” of a hemispheric syndicate. Their campaign has borne fruit: Trump formally designated the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization, accusing Maduro of leading it, and raised the bounty for his capture to $50 million – twice the figure once set for Osama bin Laden.
These actions are more defensible if Venezuela is considered a narco-state. Transparencia Venezuela, Transparency’s local branch now in exile, estimates illicit economies – including cocaine, gold smuggling, and port kickbacks – may amount to close to 16% of national GDP. Almost 25% of the world’s cocaine, routed through Colombia, now passes through Venezuela, according to the DEA and other agencies. These numbers support the hard-liners in the US administration. Yet experts caution against taking the US designation of the “Cartel of the Suns” literally. Far from a rigid hierarchy, it is more an umbrella term for informal trafficking networks facilitated by corrupt officials and state institutions in the vacuum left by Venezuela’s weakened state control. Similarly, evidence linking TdA to the Maduro government is scarce.
For now, Washington is keeping its options open. The naval and marine presence – over 4,000 troops, amphibious carriers, reconnaissance aircraft, and three destroyers – is tailored less to invasion than to interception. “Suspicious vessels may be detained and boarded on the high seas, with or without flag consent. This exerts pressure, but it doesn't overthrow anyone,” says Víctor M. Mijares, a Venezuelan geopolitical expert.
Nobody knows what happens next. The presence of precision-strike platforms revives fears of a surgical operation, akin to US and Israeli strikes against Iran, a close ally of Venezuela’s regime. In anticipation, Maduro has banned non-state sale and use of drones. He has also reacted with fiery anti-imperialist rhetoric, calling for a nationwide mobilization that supposedly enlists firefighters, communal councils, and 4.5 million militia members – though local analysts note that figure is inflated, consisting largely of pensioners and state clients. On Monday, perhaps as a show of strength and to reinforce defensive border security, Venezuela also announced the deployment of 15,000 troops – allegedly as part of a domestic anti-drugs operation – to the border with Colombia, a key US regional security partner. Venezuela is also deploying ships to the northern part of the country’s territorial waters, likely facing the US fleet.
Despite the military deployments, one key factor supports a continuation of the status quo: economics. US sanctions notwithstanding, Chevron is able to export oil thanks to the renewal of their license to operate. While the opposition had urged Washington to revoke the license, calling instead for the “financial asphyxia” of the regime, tankers have resumed crude exports to the United States. The trade is estimated to generate roughly $4 billion a year, and accounts for the bulk of Venezuela's oil production.
In the medium term, it is most likely that tensions will gradually escalate. If it comes to a head and Maduro is replaced in a haphazard way, without coordination between the democratic opposition and state actors, the result may not be a democratic transition but a power vacuum quickly filled by hardliners or even a military junta. At least for now, in a country increasingly accustomed to secrets and conspiracies, the full picture remains unclear.
Tony is a Venezuelan journalist and political scientist based in Caracas. He has written for several international outlets, runs a bilingual newsletter on his country called Venezuela Weekly, and is launching Ecosistema, a digital outlet on Venezuelan business, tech, and society.
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, accompanied by General Intelligence Service Director Hussein Al-Salama and Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, meets with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Ankara, Turkey, August 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Turkey sends Syria weapons, US military heads to Southern Caribbean, Australia makes a pact in the South Pacific
Turkey looks to re-arm Syria
Turkey pledged to boost military cooperation with Syria on Wednesday, reinforcing its support for Damascus as interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa seeks to rebuild the country after nearly 14 years of civil war. The agreement – which provides new weapons systems, logistical support, and military training – comes as Syrian forces are under increasing scrutiny for abuses against the country’s Alawite and Druze minorities. Turkey has emerged as a key ally of the new administration since the fall of Assad’s regime, particularly as it appears focused onto undermininge the Kurdish forces in Turkey and Syria.
Australia attempts to counter Chinese influence in the South Pacific
Australia and Vanuatu – a small island in the South Pacific – have agreed to a $326.5 million agreement to boost economic, security, and climate change cooperation over the next decade. It follows years of Vanuatu deepening ties with China, its largest external creditor, through infrastructure loans. In response, Australia is seeking to strengthen its influence in the Pacific, as the West and China race for control over the chessboard of strategically vital Pacific Islands.
US to send military to Southern Caribbean Sea
The US is sending air and naval forces to the Southern Caribbean as part of Donald Trump’s stepped-up war on drug cartels, targeting Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua. Since labeling these groups as global terrorist organizations, Washington has ramped up military involvement in anti-trafficking operations — from warship patrols to expanded drone surveillance across Mexico and Latin America. The stated goals: hit cartel networks harder, curb drug flows, and project US power deeper into the region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Kursk-II nuclear power plant under construction, in the Kursk region, Russia, on May 21, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Putin celebrates in Kursk, “Death camp” discovery in Mexico, & DRC seeks US help against China
Putin takes a victory lap
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Kursk on Tuesday for the first time since the Kremlin declared that it had ejected Ukrainian fighters from the Russian region. It’s another flex for a leader who signals no interest in halting the war in Ukraine. The next challenge for Moscow: Can its army secure major battlefield gains this summer to further boost its bargaining position?
Activists press Mexico’s government on cartel “death camp”
Pressure is growing on Mexico’s government to take action against drug cartels that have kidnapped, tortured, and killed tens of thousands of people over the last two decades, after relatives of some of the 120,000 disappeared persons learnt this week about a “death camp” in the western state of Colima. Authorities discovered mass graves there 18 months ago, but only just passed on the information to victims’ families. Taking on these gangs is a complex task for President Claudia Sheinbaum, as local authorities lack the manpower and firepower to quell them.
US vs China in the DRC
Felix Tshisekedi, president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has picked a fight with China over its cobalt and wants US help. The sub-Saharan nation banned exports of the metal – an essential input for the battery, defense, and aerospace industries – in February, but China’s top cobalt producer, COMC, is now pushing the DRC to lift the ban. The DRC produces about three-quarters of the world’s cobalt, and is seeking to engage the Trump administration to find new investment partners in a bid to limit Chinese influence in its cobalt trade.
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, candidate for the Presidency of Mexico by Sigamos Haciendo Historia coalition shows a electoral ballot before casting their vote at a polling booth during the 2024 Mexico s general election on June 2, 2024,
Mexico elects first woman president — will she bring change?
Claudia Sheinbaum made history on Sunday, with preliminary results showing she won roughly 60% of the vote to become the first woman elected Mexico’s president. Her victory was never really in doubt, given the support she enjoyed from outgoing and immensely popular President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador. But that same popularity means it will be hard for Mexico’s first female president to emerge from her predecessor’s shadow.
Mexican presidents are limited to a single six-year term, but AMLO has pitched Sheinbaum as his loyal successor. He’s promised she will carry on the work of what he calls Mexico’s populist “Fourth Transformation” (the first three being Mexican Independence in 1821, the civil war of 1858-1861, and the revolution 1910-1917).
Her vote more than doubled the runner-up’s, and her party took 251 seats in the lower house and 60 in the Senate, which should give her so-called “qualified” majorities in both houses alongside coalition partners. In other words, she can change the constitution, and perhaps enact some of the controversial changes AMLO failed to implement.
When the fiesta dies down at Morena headquarters, Sheinbaum will face demands from voters to tackle cartel violence, the country’s historically high murder rate, and immigration – problems she has slim chances of resolving. On the latter issue, she’s at the mercy of Washington, as folks crossing her southern border with Guatemala are trying to get to the United States, not stay in Mexico. She won’t have a clear picture of the policy environment she can act within until the gringos vote in November.
And she’ll need to break away from AMLO’s “hugs not bullets” policy, which has utterly failed to protect Mexicans, especially women and girls, from the predations of drug traffickers. The trick will be doing so without implicitly criticizing her former boss.
“The challenge is to follow Lopez Obrador, manage an extremely challenging security situation, ensure macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound and potentially deal with Trump,” said Eurasia Group analyst Daniel Kerner, who was at Sheinbaum HQ on Sunday. “And if she tries to do the constitutional reforms, economic and social stability will suffer.”
Displaced Palestinian woman Mai Anseir stands with children at a school where they shelter as they prepare to flee Rafah after Israeli forces launched a ground and air operation in the eastern part of the southern Gaza City, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip May 13, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Waves of Palestinians displaced, Deadly cartel violence in Mexico, Fatal riots in New Caledonia, Biden sanctions Nicaragua, Israeli soldiers killed by friendly fire
500,000: Over half a million people have been displaced in Gaza by recent Israeli military operations in Rafah and the northern part of the enclave, according to the UN. As the Israel-Hamas war rages on, over a million people in Gaza are on the verge of starvation, and a “full-blown famine” is occurring in the north.
11: Recent clashes between rival cartels in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas have killed at least 11 people, with two nuns and a teenager reportedly among the dead. The Sinaloa cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel are fighting for control of the area.
4: At least four people are dead due to riots over electoral reform in New Caledonia, a Pacific island and French overseas territory. France declared a state of emergency over the situation, which grants authorities more power to ban gatherings and restrict movement.
250: The Biden administration on Wednesday imposed sanctions on Nicaraguan companies and visa restrictions on 250 people, accusing President Daniel Ortega’s government of “profiting off of irregular migration” to the US. Officials say the Nicaraguan government is exploiting migrants trying to reach the US by selling visas that require them to leave the country within 96 hours. Biden’s move aims to reduce the flow of migrants to the US — an issue that he continues to face pressure over with an election looming.
5: Five Israeli soldiers were killed in a friendly fire incident in northern Gaza on Wednesday, Israel’s military said today. The Israel Defense Forces have opened an investigation into the incident, which involved tank cross-fire in the town of Jabalia. Seven others were injured.
A bottle of Fentanyl pharmaceuticals is displayed in Anyang city, central China's Henan province, 12 November 2018.
Friends that fight fentanyl together, stay together
After a four-year hiatus, the US and China have restarted joint talks to fight fentanyl. Chemicals for making the synthetic opioid flow from Chinese companies to drug cartels in Mexico and then to the US – where they are fueling the deadliest drug crisis the country has ever seen.
The talks aim to curb these precursor chemicals through better tracking and labeling, and if the US gets its way, by Beijing cracking down on the chemical manufacturers.
Why it matters: The talks are a sign that US-China relations are continuing to stabilize after years of tensions over COVID-19, trade, cross-strait posturing, and human rights violations. They are also a win for President Joe Biden: The fentanyl epidemic is sure to be a major 2024 campaign issue.
Will it work? Critics argue that the only way to stop the more than 100,000 Americans dying from fentanyl each year is through addiction-mitigating social policies.
A deadly side-effect: Curbing precursor chemical exports may inadvertently increase violence in Mexico as cartels fight to control the limited supply.