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President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on April 23, 2025.
White House claims win on border security but stays mum on tariffs
In response to Trump’s tariff threats, Canada presented a security plan that included drones and helicopters for border patrols. The government began to roll the plan out soon after. In February, it expanded the plan, adopting a “Fentanyl Czar” and listing drug cartels as terrorists under the country’s Criminal Code.
Now, the White House is claiming that there have been “successes” at the border. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says “Thanks to President Trump, operational control of the border is becoming a reality, and the administration’s historic measures are yielding huge results,” with apprehensions down 95% from March 2024 levels.
Despite the successes cited by Trump, tariffs on Canada remain in place, including 25% on non-USMCA-compliant goods along with steel and aluminum, and 10% on energy and potash. There’s been no indication from the White House the tariffs are going anywhere, regardless of what happens with the border. That may be a vindication for those who’ve argued that the border was an excuse for tariffs, not a reason. But as the US and Canada face recession risks amid the trade war, it will be of limited comfort at best.
An aerial view shows a truck crossing into the United States over the Cordova of the Americas border bridge, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on April 2, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Border apprehensions plunge, Maplewashing crops up, Fentanyl trickles in, Trump puts “Truth” on the block
7,180: US border authorities apprehended just 7,180 migrants illegally crossing the Southern Border in March, the lowest monthly number on record. The figure marks a twentyfold decline from the monthly average over the past four years as the Trump administration’s sweeping crackdown on undocumented migration continues. A recent poll put popular support for Trump’s immigration approach at 49%, the highest mark of any issue.
6: You may have heard of “pinkwashing,” “greenwashing,” “sanewashing,” or the more conventional “whitewashing.” But now there’s “maplewashing.” As of mid-March, Canadian authorities have busted six companies for fraudulently claiming their products are made in Canada rather than the US. The crackdown comes as the “Buy Canadian” movement, which boycotts American products, continues to grow in response to Donald Trump’s threats against Canada.
0.1: Donald Trump has said fentanyl is “pouring” into the US from Canada. But one man’s “pour” is another man’s “barely perceptible trickle.” Turns out, barely 0.1% of the drug seized along the US northern border last year actually came from Canada, according to government data obtained by the Globe & Mail. The remaining 99.9% came either from Mexico or from elsewhere in the US.
2.3 billion: The truth may be priceless, but Truth Social? That’s a different story. President Donald Trumpsuggested this week that he was open to selling his $2.3 billion stake in the social media company, which is a competitor of X in the microblogging space. The company has lost some 40% of its market value this year amid a wider stock market plunge triggered by uncertainty about Trump’s trade and tariff plans.Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre speaks in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, on Dec. 3, 2024.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre goes after fentanyl
Poilievre, who often blames Trudeau for soft-on-crime policies, said he would introduce mandatory life sentences for fentanyl traffickers. “I will lock up fentanyl kingpins and throw away the key. It's like spraying bullets into a crowd — even if you don’t aim, you will kill people. The penalty should be the same as murder.”
Canadian courts have often ruled that mandatory life sentences for any crime violate the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, but Poilievre has said he would override the courts if necessary to get tough on crime.
The proposal comes as the Conservatives search for new messages to use against the governing Liberals. The party has been connecting with voters for two years by launching attacks against Trudeau and the unpopular consumer carbon tax. But Trudeau has announced that he is resigning and his likely successor, former central banker Mark Carney, has promised to get rid of that tax.
The polls have tightened slightly after many months of downward motion for the Liberals, and they are still moving. A poll of Quebecers shows many have suddenly decided to shift their support to the Liberals, and more would do so if Carney is leader.
Expect Poilievre to talk about crime and find new ways to talk about the cost of living, and keep an eye on volatile public opinion.
Oysters from Prince Edward Island are displayed in a Toronto market.
HARD NUMBERS: Killer oyster parasite spreads, Canada offers tariff relief, Small batch opioid precursors pose big problem, Moscow says “no” to new US-Russia nuclear treaty
95: An oyster parasite with a kill rate of up to 95% is spreading fast on Prince Edward Island, putting the lucrative industry at risk. Canadian food inspectors say the culprit – called “multinucleate sphere X” or “MSX” – has no effect on humans who eat contaminated oysters, but it shortens the mollusks’ lifespan. Oyster exports are PEI’s third most lucrative industry, bringing in about $24 million annually. Lobsters are in first, at nearly $300 million.
25: Canada is prepared to offer firms relief from a new 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum coming into effect later this month. Ottawa imposed the measure to fight what it says is “dumping” in which China, suffering low domestic demand, exports unsold commodities at ultra-low prices. After Canadian firms warned they won’t be able to adjust their supply chains quickly enough, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the government will develop a “framework” in which companies can request relief.
$800: How does so much fentanyl get into the United States? In small packages, according to a Reuters report, which finds that traffickers of the chemicals used to make the drug exploit a US trade loophole that permits packages with a value below $800 to enter the US with minimal inspections. Over a two-year period, a single trafficker profiled in the report ferried small packages arriving from China with enough precursors to make 5 billion fentanyl pills.
2: With just two years until the expiration of the last major nuclear arms limitation treaty between Russia and the US, Moscow may not seek to sign a new treaty at all. Russia last year suspended participation in the 2010 pact, known as the New START treaty, because of frictions with Washington over the Ukraine war. To sign a new agreement under these circumstances, said an unnamed Russian official, “will only entertain the pride of the United States.”Canada's Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Marc Miller.
Hard numbers: Ottawa pledges fresh immigration crackdown, Gold and ‘Black Gold’ deliver a surplus, US makes big power grid pledge, China cracks down on opioid precursors
5: Canada says it will clamp down further on temporary immigrants, part of its strategy to reduce their share of the population to 5% over the next three years, as frustrations grow about the pace of immigration. Last year, temporary workers made up 6.2% of the population. So far this year, the level has climbed to 6.8%. In recent years, the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau encouraged the arrival of more temporary workers to help employers fill pandemic-related vacancies. But the country’s broader housing affordability crisis has fueled concern about the pace of immigration. A recent Leger poll showed 60% of Canadians said there were “too many immigrants.”
461 million: Gold and “black gold” helped deliver some sparkling economic news for Canada this week. Defying analyst predictions, the country registered a trade surplus in June, exporting $461 million more worth of goods than it imported. It was the first time that had happened in four months. Analysts pointed in part to surging exports of gold as well as oil, which finally began flowing from the Trans-Mountain Pipeline after years of delays.
2.2 billion: The White House has earmarked 2.2 billion to strengthen the US power grid and speed up the green transition. The money, to be matched by nearly $10 billion in private financing, will flow to eight projects across 18 US states. A major focus is to create additional transmission capacity and regional connections so wind farms and other alternative energy sources can make a bigger contribution to power generation.
3: China has committed to tightening regulatory controls on three chemicals used to make fentanyl, the White House said earlier this week. This is the third such move that Beijing has made since the two countries resumed counter-narcotics cooperation last fall. Illicit fentanyl overdoses — known more broadly as “the opioid crisis” — have become a leading cause of death for American adults under the age of 45 in recent years. China is known to have subsidized the production and marketing of fentanyl precursors.A bottle of fentanyl is displayed in Anyang city, central China's Henan province, 12 November 2018.
China agrees to restrict fentanyl production
China produces large quantities offentanyl, an opioid drug, much of which is then sold to drug cartels in Mexico that traffic narcotics into the United States. Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids were blamed for the overdose deaths of nearly 75,000 Americans in 2023.
For more than two years, the Biden administration has pressed China to stop the flow of chemicals used to make fentanyl. On Tuesday, China agreed to impose tougher restrictions and stricter oversight of the sale of three chemicals used to make fentanyl.
This tells us less about the future flow of opioids – they will probably continue to find their way across US borders – than about Beijing’s desire to protect stable and pragmatic relations with Washington. That is, at least until it becomes clear who will be inaugurated the next US president in January.
CBP agents stand by a plane that's believed to have carried Mexican drug lord Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Joaquin Guzman Lopez, who were arrested in El Paso, Texas.
Sinaloa cartel leaders arrested
Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, the leader and co-founder of the notorious Sinaloa cartel was arrested on Thursday in El Paso, Texas, along with Joaquin Guzmán Lopez, the son of imprisoned cartel boss Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán.
The two men are considered to be among the most powerful drug traffickers in Mexico, and this is a major victory for US law enforcement agencies that have hunted figures like Zambada for years.
Attorney General Merrick Garlandsaid the men face “multiple charges” for leading the cartel’s criminal operations, which include “its deadly fentanyl manufacturing and trafficking networks.”
The DEA has directly attributed the deadly synthetic drug crisis in the US, involving substances like fentanyl and methamphetamine, to the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels and their associates.
“Fentanyl is the deadliest drug threat our country has ever faced, and the Justice Department will not rest until every single cartel leader, member, and associate responsible for poisoning our communities is held accountable,” Garland said.
A congressional report earlier this year pointed to fentanyl as the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-45. The opioid crisis is a major political issue in the US and has emerged as a key topic in the 2024 presidential election.
Though these arrests are a win for the Justice Department, experts doubt they will put a major dent in the drug trade — and suggest the arrests could lead to a spike in violence due to infighting that was already prevalent.A bottle of Fentanyl pharmaceuticals is displayed in Anyang city, central China's Henan province, 12 November 2018.
Friends that fight fentanyl together, stay together
After a four-year hiatus, the US and China have restarted joint talks to fight fentanyl. Chemicals for making the synthetic opioid flow from Chinese companies to drug cartels in Mexico and then to the US – where they are fueling the deadliest drug crisis the country has ever seen.
The talks aim to curb these precursor chemicals through better tracking and labeling, and if the US gets its way, by Beijing cracking down on the chemical manufacturers.
Why it matters: The talks are a sign that US-China relations are continuing to stabilize after years of tensions over COVID-19, trade, cross-strait posturing, and human rights violations. They are also a win for President Joe Biden: The fentanyl epidemic is sure to be a major 2024 campaign issue.
Will it work? Critics argue that the only way to stop the more than 100,000 Americans dying from fentanyl each year is through addiction-mitigating social policies.
A deadly side-effect: Curbing precursor chemical exports may inadvertently increase violence in Mexico as cartels fight to control the limited supply.