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President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on April 23, 2025.
White House claims win on border security but stays mum on tariffs
In response to Trump’s tariff threats, Canada presented a security plan that included drones and helicopters for border patrols. The government began to roll the plan out soon after. In February, it expanded the plan, adopting a “Fentanyl Czar” and listing drug cartels as terrorists under the country’s Criminal Code.
Now, the White House is claiming that there have been “successes” at the border. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says “Thanks to President Trump, operational control of the border is becoming a reality, and the administration’s historic measures are yielding huge results,” with apprehensions down 95% from March 2024 levels.
Despite the successes cited by Trump, tariffs on Canada remain in place, including 25% on non-USMCA-compliant goods along with steel and aluminum, and 10% on energy and potash. There’s been no indication from the White House the tariffs are going anywhere, regardless of what happens with the border. That may be a vindication for those who’ve argued that the border was an excuse for tariffs, not a reason. But as the US and Canada face recession risks amid the trade war, it will be of limited comfort at best.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem takes part in a news conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada April 16, 2025.
Hard Numbers: BoC warily holds rates, Canada lobbies China for tariff relief, Trump gives borderlands to the Army, Global growth forecasts fall, Major League Baseball struggles to attract Black talent
2.75: Canada’s central bank held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% this week, ending a streak of seven consecutive cuts. Despite concerns about a slowing Canadian economy, and a lower-than-expected inflation reading earlier this week, the regulator opted not to cut rates due to massive uncertainty about the extent and impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs.
100 and 25: Canadian industries are busy lobbying one of the world’s largest economies for tariff relief — but, in this case, it’s not the US but China. The world’s number two economy last month slapped a 100% tariff on Canadian canola products and a 25% levy on pork and seafood. The move, which could cost some Canadian meat-processors more than $100 million this year, was made in retaliation for Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese EVs.
110,000: The Trump administration transferred nearly 110,000 acres of federal land along the US southern border to the Army, as part of its efforts to rein in illegal immigration and drug smuggling. The move, which lasts three years, will permit increased federal patrols, broaden the powers of US troops there to detain migrants, and facilitate the construction of more border security infrastructure.
2: Global economic growth will fall below 2% this year, the weakest showing since 2009, excluding the pandemic. That’s the grim new forecast from Fitch Ratings, a leading global ratings group. Fitch said it had slashed its global growth prognosis by 0.4 percentage points because of the expected impact of the US tariffs and the deepening trade war between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies.
6.2: This week Major League Baseball celebrated Jackie Robinson Day, honoring the storied Brooklyn Dodger who became the first Black player to take the field in the big leagues. But 78 years after Robinson broke the color barrier, black players made up just 6.2% of the names on Opening Day rosters this year, down from a peak of about 19% in the early 1980s.
Workers walk outside a Stellantis assembly plant following a company's announcement saying it will pause production there, in Toluca, state of Mexico, Mexico April 4, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump tariffs hit US auto jobs, Canada’s Gujaratis step on to the political scene, US and Mexico brace for water battle, Hoekstra confirmed as US ambassador to Canada.
900: Stellantis, one of the world’s largest car manufacturers,has temporarily laid off 900 US workers at plants that supply parts for its Canadian and Mexican factories, where operations have been suspended for two weeks amid uncertainty about the nature and impact of Trump’s tariffs.
4: Within Canada’s large South Asian diaspora, people who trace their origins to the Punjab region have long enjoyed greater numbers and political representation than those who hail from the Indian state of Gujarat. But that could be starting to shift, as the April 28 election will see four Gujarati candidates on the ballot. In Calgary, Sunjiv Raval is running for office on the Liberal Party ticket, while Ashok Patel and Minesh Patel are running as Independents. In Brampton, Ontario, Jayesh Brahmbhatt is running with the People’s Party.
30: Things are always a bit fluid in US-Mexican relations, but the next big clash between the two countries could literally be over water. Under a 1944 treaty, Mexico is obligated to share the waters of the Rio Grande but has met only 30% of its obligations over the past five years. Mexico says this is due to drought, but a fight is brewing as the treaty is set to expire later this year.
60: By a vote of 60 to 37, the US Senate confirmed Pete Hoekstra as the new ambassador to Canada. The Dutch-born Hoekstra is a former congressman from Michigan and ambassador to the Netherlands. He assumes his new role at a tough time: His boss has launched a tariff war with his host country and threatened to make Canada “the 51st state.” Hoekstra said he will “work with the Canadian government” on trade and border security.
A motorist rides past a hoarding decorated with flowers to welcome G20 foreign ministers in New Delhi, India, March 1, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Tense G-20 talks in India, Finland’s fence-building, China’s economic activity, Chicago’s mayoral runoff
An awkward G-20 summit in Delhi
When G-20 foreign ministers met in New Delhi on Thursday, it was, as expected, an awkward affair. While India, the current G-20 chair, had hoped that the bloc would focus on issues of importance to the Global South, like climate change and the global food crisis, the agenda was disrupted by US-Russia bickering over the war in Ukraine, which US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called "unprovoked and unjustified war", while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov blamed the West for not doing enough to extend a deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports that will soon expire. Of course, focusing on anything else was going to be a tall order when the top diplomats of the US, China, and Russia were all in the same room. (President Biden and Xi Jinping last met at the G-20 summit in Bali in November, though there was no bilateral meeting between the US and Russia.) In a sign of how fractured Washington's relationship remains with these two states, Blinken on Wednesday again urged Beijing not to send lethal weapons to Russia and canned China’s peace plan for Ukraine. As for US-Russia relations … need we say more? India, which has gone to painstaking lengths to maintain its neutral status over the past year, says it thinks the group can get stuff done. But at a meeting last month of G-20 financial heads, the group couldn’t even agree on a joint statement.
Finland builds a border fence against Russia
Rakentaa se aita! That's Finnish for "Build that fence!" — which is what Finland plans to do to protect its borders from Russian draft dodgers. Construction of a 10-foot tall wall, ahem, fence began this week along Finland's 800-mile border with Russia, with the first section expected to be finished by June. The Finns want to stop Russians from entering after fleeing the draft to fight in Ukraine, a number that could rise if Vladimir Putin orders another mobilization in the coming months. Meanwhile, Finland's parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved the government's plan to speed up the process to join NATO — ideally along with Sweden, a fellow Nordic, if Turkey ever backs off. Going back to the fence, parts of it will have all the bells and whistles — night-vision cameras, lights, and loudspeakers — that former US President Donald Trump could only dream of for his partially built "Big, beautiful wall." And like Mexico, you can bet that Russia won't pay for it.
Chinese economic activity rebounds
China's official manufacturing sector purchasing managers’ index — a closely watched indicator of economic activity — reached 52.6% in February, expanding at its fastest monthly pace in over a decade. What's more, home sales rose for the first time in two years amid a persistent property-sector slump. The good: The two figures beat expectations and are a clear sign that the world's second-largest economy is recovering quicker than expected after abruptly ditching zero-COVID. The bad: The starting point was very low, as China's GDP grew last year by only 3%, barely half of what the ruling Communist Party had targeted. The ugly: While this is excellent news for Xi Jinping and a global economy that's eager for both more Chinese demand for stuff and more Chinese capacity to make stuff, economic activity has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels. Also, China's economy is still facing strong pressure from the fallout of the US-China rivalry, with American companies feeling increasingly bearish about the future as ties between Beijing and Washington get icier.
Chicago election result portends impending showdown over policing
Voters in Chicago denied Lori Lightfoot, who made history as the city’s first openly gay and Black female mayor, a second term amid concerns over rising crime, which increased by 41% between 2021 and 2022. Lightfoot, who cruised to office in 2019 on an anti-corruption platform, had been widely criticized for the high crime rate in America’s third-largest city. No candidate in the Democratic stronghold clinched over 50% of the vote needed to win outright this week, so the two remaining candidates – both Dems – will go to an April 4th runoff, with the controversial issue of policing underscoring the stark divide between them. On one side is Paul Vallas, who has drawn criticism for past comments and for associating with the Windy City’s controversial police union leader. He promises to add hundreds of officers back to the police force if elected. His challenger, Brian Johnson, favors investment in services like housing, education, and mental health over more policing. Amid rising post-pandemic crime in major US cities, political differences over investment in public safety measures will play an increasingly central role in US mayoral elections. We’ll be watching as Philadelphia and Houston head to the polls later this year.
A Big Beautiful Border Wall
She wants him out, he wants a wall – now they've reached compromise that helps them both out.