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Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa looks on as his wife Lavinia Valbonesi (not pictured) takes part in a referendum that asks voters to support mostly security-related questions to fight rising violence, in Guayaquil, Ecuador April 21, 2024.
Ecuador votes to get tough on drugs
Ecuadorians showed overwhelming support for a government crackdown on drug-related violence in referendums this weekend in what could become a regional trend. Quito won support for joint police-military patrols, extradition of wanted criminals, tighter gun control, and tougher punishments for murder and drug trafficking, among other measures.
Cocaine boom: Ecuador had long maintained a reputation for tranquility despite being sandwiched between the major cocaine production hubs of Colombia and Peru. Coke is in the midst of a major resurgence, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, with seven straight years of growing use.
Consequently, traffickers are trying to ship more blow than ever to the US, and increasingly doing so through Ecuador’s conveniently located ports. With the drugs come weapons, money, and violence, tearing at the social fabric. In August of last year, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated after receiving death threats from gang leader Jose Adolfo Macias, who later escaped prison.
Iron fist: Ecuador is far from alone in experiencing a surge in drug violence, and leaders in Latin America are looking at Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s “mano dura” (iron fist) crackdown as an example.
“Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa took from the Bukele playbook in realizing that citizens are open to more draconian type measures,” says Eurasia Group associate Yael Sternberg, though she emphasized that the actual policies and problems are different.
If it pays off for Noboa like it has for Bukele, Sternberg says Chile is the country to watch next, with a growing crime issue and elections next year.
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will Iran respond to the attack on their consulate in Syria?
An Israeli strike that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader of Iran in Syria. So on the one hand, Iranian citizen, high-level military official. On the other hand, not in Iran itself, in Syria supporting proxy attacks. Clearly the Iranians have been willing to push hard using the leverage they have in the so-called acts of resistance to engage in strikes against civilian shipping, against Western military capabilities, and against Israel.
The Israelis are showing that they will attack wherever they think fit against them, but Iran has been reluctant to allow this to potentially lead to escalation in a direct war against Iran, which is why it's hard to imagine the Iranians engaging in direct strikes against Israel itself. Ballistic missile strikes from Iran into Israel. So in other words, if you're going to hit Israel, you try to use proxies or you try to hit Israelis outside of Israel itself. Israeli diplomatic facilities, for example, that's where I think you're more likely to see escalation. Escalation seems almost certain from the Iranians, but containing it also is something the Americans and Israel are trying very, very hard to do and that continues to be the case like when we saw the American servicemen killed in Jordan a couple months ago.
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Assuming it happens, remember Netanyahu was saying that he has a date now for the strike, but he said that strikes were going to start once Ramadan began if there had not been an agreement on this six-week, hostages for temporary ceasefire deal. There wasn't such a deal, Netanyahu backed off, he could back off again. Also, the ultimatum from the United States is not about a war in Rafah. It is about a large-scale ground war without providing the ability for the Palestinians to evacuate and get humanitarian aid.
Between those two positions there's a lot of wiggle room and one expects that the Israeli government, as they are thinking about those strikes, which I do believe will come, will try to claim domestically that they're doing what they need to clear up Hamas and claim to the Americans that it is at a reduced cost of civilians and it is engaged in the spirit of working with the Americans and not requiring Biden to shut down offensive support for Israel. That's where we are.
What's the fallout from Ecuador's raid of a Mexican embassy?
Well, the first thing is President Noboa of Ecuador, this is political. This is a former vice president who was taking, was sheltering in the Mexican embassy. You raid it, that is a breach of international law, but there is a security, largely security referendum, nationwide referendum coming up in just a couple of weeks in Ecuador that Noboa wants to win. He is ahead, it looks like he will win it now, and this is going to be very popular on the ground.
Guy had been sort of on their wanted list for a long time, but they decided to take that action now because of the domestic politics. So it helps him. Probably doesn't kill the IMF deal that is presently being negotiated, but certainly suspends diplomatic relations between the two countries and it's probably going to affect trade too. So you've alienated the Mexicans, but given the near-term political benefit for the Ecuadorian president, he thought that was a risk worth taking. Lots of impunity in this environment. It's one consistency that we see in our geopolitical recession, our GZERO world.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
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- Netanyahu’s failed Gaza strategy ›
Banknotes of the new national currency Zimbabwe Gold, ZiG for short, are presented at a press conference of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe. Due to high inflation, Zimbabwe's central bank has introduced a new currency that is primarily linked to gold, but also to a number of other precious metals and foreign currencies.
Hard numbers: Zimbabwe’s new bills, Ecuador in hot water, Russian dam failure, Ukraine’s air defense, Island-sized lottery.
70: Zimbabwe is rolling out the ZiG, a new currency pegged to gold and foreign cash. The government hopes to curb the freefall of its erstwhile dollar, whose value has declined by over 70% since January. People have three weeks to exchange the old notes for the new currency.
2: Two countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, have cut ties with Ecuador following a police raid Friday on Mexico’s Quito embassy that resulted in the arrest of Ecuador’s former vice president, Jorge Glas. Glas had been staying in the embassy seeking asylum since December, when a warrant was issued for his arrest. President Lopez Obrador responded angrily, calling the raid a “flagrant violation of international law,” and Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega followed suit, referring to it as “reprehensible."
11,000: The failure of a dam in Orsk, Russia, has forced the evacuation of 11,000 residents and left over 4,000 buildings teetering on the brink. Several regional provinces in the area, near the Kazakhstan border, have suffered from flooding in recent days.
25: In a television interview that aired on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked allies for 25 US Patriot systems, saying they are vital to repelling Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles that can hit targets within minutes. As Russia’s relentless bombing continues, the Ukrainian president warns that his country is running out of air-defense missiles.
1.3 billion: An Oregon lottery player snagged a Powerball prize north of $1.3 billion after no other player hit the jackpot for three months. For context, that’s roughly the equivalent of Grenada’s GDP, minus the taxman's cut, of course.Soldiers keep watch in the militarized Litoral prison, part of the measures taken by Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa to crackdown on gangs, during a media tour in Guayaquil, Ecuador, Feb. 9, 2024.
Ecuador to vote on emergency measures amid spiraling violence
Ecuadorians will get their say on a slew of emergency measures meant to combat skyrocketing murders in their country — but they’ll have to wait more than two months.
A court has set April 21 as the date for a referendum on expanding the army’s powers, tightening control over guns and prisons, and raising penalties for trafficking.
President Daniel Noboa, the scion of a banana export dynasty who was elected last November, called for the vote as he battles an unprecedented surge of violence in the once-peaceful country. The cause? Record global demand for cocaine is driving a war among drug cartels for control over Ecuador’s ports.
Last year Ecuador’s homicide rate surpassed 40 per 100,000 inhabitants, more than quadruple the mark in 2020. In recent months, several prominent politicians, including a presidential candidate, have been gunned down. In January, armed men stormed a live television broadcast.
Strongman, but by the book: Noboa’s consultative approach contrasts with the authoritarian (and so far successful) tack of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. But it’s a gamble: If civil liberties concerns cause Ecuadorans to vote “no” on some questions, Noboa’s hands could be tied (at least partly) while the violence rages.
Daniel Noboa
Noboa wins, but Correa remains at heart of Ecuador’s political crisis
On Sunday, Ecuadorians elected their youngest-ever president, businessman Daniel Noboa, amid deep political rifts that exacerbate a growing security crisis in the small Andean nation.
Ecuador has become a major export route for drugs destined for Europe, and cartels brought their bloody tactics across the borders of Colombia and Peru. In July and August, three politicians, including outspoken anti-drug presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, were assassinated in separate incidents. The number of violent deaths in Ecuador doubled to over 4,600 between 2021 and 2022 and is set to break another record this year.
But layered on top of the crisis is the deep social divide over left-wing former President Rafael Correa. This weekend’s election was triggered when erstwhile President Guillermo Lasso — the first conservative president since Correa was elected in 2007 — resigned and dissolved Congress in the face of impeachment proceedings. Correa, who moved to Belgium after leaving office in 2017, was convicted of corruption charges in 2020.
Eurasia Group’s Director for Latin America, Risa Grais-Targow, says that Noboa’s careful positioning on correismo (the political ideology related to Correa), more than campaign promises about security or the economy, helped him win.
“The strength of his candidacy stemmed from the fact that he's a political newcomer who focused his campaign on appealing to the segment of the population that neither identifies as correista nor anti-correista,” she says.
Still, it may be hard for Noboa to deliver for those middle-of-the-road voters. His team’s political resumés run a little short, and he’ll have to cobble together a coalition in the legislature to get anything done. His party holds just 13 seats — well short of the 70-seat majority.
What’s more, Grais-Targow said Noboa can’t avoid the issue of Correa forever — with fresh elections for a full term scheduled for February 2025, everyone will be back on the campaign trail soon. That said, defeated correista candidate Luisa Gonzalez said her party would work with Noboa in Congress in her concession speech.
“The correistas still have an agenda related to former President Rafael Correa's legal cases,” says Grais-Targow. “They may be willing to support certain aspects of Noboa’s agenda in Congress, where they're going to actually have the largest share of seats, in exchange for giving them more sway over key institutional appointments that could shape the future of Correa's legal problems.”
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Windham, NH.
Hard Numbers: Trump’s bond, Saudis target Ethiopian migrants, missing in Maui, Ecuadorians’ pro-Amazon vote
200,000: Former President Donald Trump's bond in Georgia has been set at $200,000 ahead of a Friday deadline to turn himself in. As part of his release conditions, Trump, who is reportedly set to surrender for processing on Thursday, is banned from using social media to intimidate witnesses.
750,000: Saudi border guards have reportedly opened fire and launched explosives at Ethiopian migrants fleeing their country’s civil war in recent years, killing hundreds as they tried crossing into Saudi Arabia from Yemen, according to a new Human Rights Watch report. Some 750,000 Ethiopians now live in Saudi Arabia, the majority of them unauthorized.
850: That’s the number of missing people in Maui, Hawaii, following last week’s devastating wildfires. While 850 is far lower than the earlier estimates, which were closer to 2,000, officials are asking locals to give DNA samples to help with the sluggish victim recovery effort.
59: Ecuadorian voters failed to deliver a decisive win to any of the country’s presidential candidates on Sunday, paving the way for a runoff vote in October. But there was a clear win for the Amazon with 59% voting in favor of a referendum to reject all oil exploration in Yasuni National Park.
Ecuadorian presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez speaks during a presidential election night event, in Quito, Ecuador, on Aug. 20, 2023.
González leads, but a runoff looms in Ecuador
After an election marred by a high level of violence, including the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavencio, Ecuadorian voters have set the stage for a runoff between left-wing candidate Luisa González and political outsider Daniel Noboa, the scion of a major banana business. With 75% of the votes tallied, González leads Noboa 33% to 24%.
To win, a candidate needed 50% of the vote, or 40% support with a 10-point lead over their closest rival.
Should González win the runoff, the country risks remaining under the influence of disgraced former President Rafael Correa, whom González pledged to retain as an advisor. Since 2017, Correa has lived abroad in Belgium, allowing him to escape his 2020 prison sentence for corruption.
Villavicencio, a former journalist, had harshly criticized Correa and was credited with contributing to his conviction. Known for brazenly calling out corruption, organized crime, and drug traffickers, Villavicencio – who was not leading the pack when he was assassinated – was killed in a hail of bullets after a rally on Aug. 9. Six Colombian nationals have been arrested in connection with his murder.
Other politicians have also been murdered in recent months, but violence has not been limited to politics: Ecuador saw 3,568 violent deaths in the first six months of this year, a nearly 75% jump on the number of murders reported in the first half of 2022. That year ended with the highest number of violent deaths in Ecuador’s history, 4,600, double the total of the previous year – with the uptick blamed on drug trafficking and corruption.
On Sunday, some 100,000 police were dispatched to keep order on election day. A runoff vote will now be held in October. Whoever wins will face the challenge not only of reducing violence but restoring voter confidence in a shaken populace.Soldiers patrol an area next a road prior to Sunday's presidential election, in Quito, Ecuador.
Violence rages days before Ecuador's presidential vote
Less than a week after a presidential candidate was shot on the campaign trail in Quito, Ecuador’s capital, another politician was assassinated on Tuesday in the northern province of Esmeralda.
Pedro Briones, a local leader of the Revolución Ciudadana Party, was killed by a gunman on Tuesday, though details about the attacker remain scarce.
This comes just days after Fernando Villavicencio, an anti-crime warrior, was shot and killed ahead of the presidential ballot on Aug. 20. What’s more, in recent weeks, Agustín Intriago, the mayor of Manta, Ecuador’s third largest city, was also assassinated.
While there doesn’t appear to be a direct connection between these events, together they demonstrate the depths of the gang-related crime problem sweeping the country – which now has one of the highest homicide rates in Latin America.
Looking ahead: The killing of Villavicencio is having a significant impact on the vote. While Luisa Gonzales of the progressive Citizen Revolution Movement is still ahead in the polls, her chances of winning outright in a first round (reaping 50% of the vote) are dropping fast as some voters appear to blame her party (which long clashed with Villavicencio) for her rival’s demise. A competitive runoff would likely be held in October.