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Supporters of Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa gather outside National Electoral Council (CNE) building, in Quito, Ecuador, on April 13, 2025.
Ecuador re-elects law-and-order president amid surging violence
Ecuador’s incumbent president Daniel Noboa, the conservative, tough-on-crime scion of a banana dynasty, resoundingly won his reelection runoff on Sunday, defeating left-wing candidate Luisa González by more than 10 points.
Against the backdrop of an epidemic of gang-violence, the vote was a referendum on Noboa’s no-holds-barred war on drugs, which has been marked by states of emergency, mass arrests, and allegations of human rights violations.
González, who is close to the country’s exiled left-wing populist former president Rafael Correa, ran on a progressive platform that focused on poverty alleviation and reducing inequality.
Noboa won the initial round in October 2024 with a margin of less than 1% of the vote. He claims his military-driven “Plan Fénix” has cracked down on crime, and while the homicide ratedropped from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 people in 2024, it still exceeds the 6.85 homicides per 100,000 people recorded in 2019.
Gonzalez on Sunday evening called the result a “grotesque electoral fraud” and vowed to challenge the results.
If you’re dividing an increasingly polarized Latin America into ideological buckets: you can leave Ecuador firmly in the right-hand column. Noboa, who styles himself as a political outsider, comes from the right and is an open admirer of US President Donald Trump, whose help he has sought in his crusade against gang violence.
Supporters hold cardboard cutouts of Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, days before the Ecuadorian presidential election, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on Feb. 4, 2025.
Viewpoint: With his reelection bid, Ecuador’s Noboa seeks more time to bring violence under control
Ecuadorians will head to the polls on Feb. 9 to choose their next president against a backdrop of spiraling violence similar to that of the last presidential election in 2023. That was an early vote called by then-President Guillermo Lasso in an attempt to avoid impeachment. Daniel Noboa, the fresh-faced son of a banana magnate, achieved an upset victory, assumed the presidency, and launched an aggressive crackdown against the drug trafficking gangs terrorizing the country.
Less than two years later, the 38-year-old president is asking for a full term in office (four years) in this weekend’s regularly scheduled election. Noboa says he wants to finish what he started, and his clear lead in the polls suggests that voters are inclined to give him the opportunity. We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targow to learn more about the upcoming election.
What are voters’ biggest concerns?
The main issue by far is security, followed by economic concerns. There was a crisis of electricity outages toward the end of last year, but that has been abated by recent rains (the country is heavily dependent on hydropower) and fallen lower on the list of voter concerns. However, there has been a renewed deterioration of the security situation, and the start of this year has been one of the most violent ever.
What is driving this violence? Are political candidates being targeted, as in 2023?
No high-profile candidates have been targeted this time (presidential hopeful Fernando Villavicencio was shot and killed in 2023), but some local officials have been killed and there may be a political motive behind the latest wave of violence. Noboa has really made the fight against organized crime a pillar of his presidency. When he took office in January 2024, he declared a state of emergency, brought the military out onto the streets, and took control of the country’s prisons, which had been a hotbed of criminal activity. So criminal groups may be intensifying their battles for control of drug-transit routes partly in the hope that the resulting uptick in violence will lead voters to conclude the president’s approach is not working.
Is it working? Given these still high levels of violence under Noboa, why is he leading in the polls?
Noboa’s policies initially brought a dramatic decline in homicide rates and other violence. Since then, it’s possible that criminal groups found ways to work around them. Still, levels of violence are lower than at their late 2023 peak. More broadly, voters support Noboa’s policies and believe that he is doing the right thing or trying to do the right thing. They think he needs more time. He's only been in office for just over a year, so I think voters are still, at this juncture, willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Are there other reasons for this high level of support for Noboa?
I think that he is still viewed by voters as a bit of an outsider, someone who is shaking up Ecuadorian politics. He came out of nowhere in 2023 to win the election. He's very young and still kind of feels like a fresh face. The other thing he has going for him is that his main opponent, Luisa Gonzalez, is not a strong candidate with a clear message on the issues voters care about. She represents the correismo movement launched by former president Rafael Correa, which has a very loyal base but also is strongly disliked by some parts of the electorate.
What has happened to correismo? It used to be a dominant force in Ecuadorian politics, but its fortunes seem to have declined in the last couple of elections.
The movement has struggled to come up with a compelling forward-looking campaign message, focusing more on attacking Noboa and peddling nostalgia about conditions during Correa’s time in office (2007-2017). Moreover, the country’s security crisis has focused attention on decisions Correa made such as expelling the US military from the base in Manta. Similarly, the country’s current reliance on hydropower and shaky electricity grid stems from decisions made under Correa, including his flagship Chinese-built Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric dam, which has major structural problems.
At the same time, Noboa’s young National Democratic Action party seems to be consolidating its position. What is the significance of this?
Ecuadorian politics seems to be consolidating around two main parties, National Democratic Action and Correismo, which marks a departure from its typical fragmentation. This can be a stabilizing force for a country with a long history of political instability and volatility.
What are some things Ecuador’s next president could do to address the country’s problems?
Noboa wants to amend the constitution to allow foreign military bases in Ecuador, reversing the policy instituted by Correa. The country is doing battle with multinational criminal organizations – the groups in Ecuador report, for example, to Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel – so having foreign military and intelligence assistance is potentially a big deal. This is a popular idea locally but will need to be put to a public referendum. In terms of electricity supply, Noboa has been changing regulations to stimulate investment in new generation capacity, and I think if he is elected to a new four-year term, that could help get some of these projects moving. Finally, under the terms of the country’s financial support package from the IMF, the next president will have to raise tax revenue and cut back on fuel subsidies. The latter is a particularly challenging issue that has prompted mass public protests in the past.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group
A Russian Soyuz rocket is carried to the launching pad at Russia's Baikonur cosmodrome on the territory of the former Soviet Kazakhstan on December 18.
Hard Numbers: Russia shoots down space resolution, US economy sputters, Nigerian prisoners make slippery escape, Ecuador gets lifeline
13: A UN Security Council resolution reaffirming a long-standing prohibition on arms races in outer space got 13 votes in favor this week, but it was shot down by a single veto from UNSC permanent member Russia. Moscow says it wasn’t necessary to support a resolution that merely reaffirmed a 1967 treaty that Russia is already part of, but the US ambassador to the UN asked, “What could you possibly be hiding?” In recent months, the US has said it believes Russia is developing a new space-based, anti-satellite weapon.
1.6: The US economy expanded by just 1.6% in the first quarter of the year, lagging analyst forecasts by nearly a full percentage point, as consumer spending slowed. Normally that would create momentum for the Fed to cut interest rates to spur growth, but there’s no joy there either: Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) rose 3.7%, higher than economists expectations, limiting the scope for any near-term rate cuts.
118: Authorities in the Nigerian capital of Abuja are on high alert after a rainstorm destroyed a fence at a nearby penitentiary, allowing as many as 118 inmates to escape. A prison service spokesperson blamed “colonial era” facilities. Weak security and run-down buildings contribute to frequent prison-breaks in the West African nation.
4 billion: After months of talks, Ecuador and the IMF agreed to a $4 billion loan agreement meant to help stabilize the small Andean country’s finances as it grapples with a vicious cycle of economic hardship, rising poverty, and skyrocketing homicides. Just days earlier, Ecuadorians had voted yes in a referendum to boost the government’s ability to crack down on drug violence.Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa looks on as his wife Lavinia Valbonesi (not pictured) takes part in a referendum that asks voters to support mostly security-related questions to fight rising violence, in Guayaquil, Ecuador April 21, 2024.
Ecuador votes to get tough on drugs
Ecuadorians showed overwhelming support for a government crackdown on drug-related violence in referendums this weekend in what could become a regional trend. Quito won support for joint police-military patrols, extradition of wanted criminals, tighter gun control, and tougher punishments for murder and drug trafficking, among other measures.
Cocaine boom: Ecuador had long maintained a reputation for tranquility despite being sandwiched between the major cocaine production hubs of Colombia and Peru. Coke is in the midst of a major resurgence, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, with seven straight years of growing use.
Consequently, traffickers are trying to ship more blow than ever to the US, and increasingly doing so through Ecuador’s conveniently located ports. With the drugs come weapons, money, and violence, tearing at the social fabric. In August of last year, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated after receiving death threats from gang leader Jose Adolfo Macias, who later escaped prison.
Iron fist: Ecuador is far from alone in experiencing a surge in drug violence, and leaders in Latin America are looking at Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s “mano dura” (iron fist) crackdown as an example.
“Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa took from the Bukele playbook in realizing that citizens are open to more draconian type measures,” says Eurasia Group associate Yael Sternberg, though she emphasized that the actual policies and problems are different.
If it pays off for Noboa like it has for Bukele, Sternberg says Chile is the country to watch next, with a growing crime issue and elections next year.
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will Iran respond to the attack on their consulate in Syria?
An Israeli strike that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader of Iran in Syria. So on the one hand, Iranian citizen, high-level military official. On the other hand, not in Iran itself, in Syria supporting proxy attacks. Clearly the Iranians have been willing to push hard using the leverage they have in the so-called acts of resistance to engage in strikes against civilian shipping, against Western military capabilities, and against Israel.
The Israelis are showing that they will attack wherever they think fit against them, but Iran has been reluctant to allow this to potentially lead to escalation in a direct war against Iran, which is why it's hard to imagine the Iranians engaging in direct strikes against Israel itself. Ballistic missile strikes from Iran into Israel. So in other words, if you're going to hit Israel, you try to use proxies or you try to hit Israelis outside of Israel itself. Israeli diplomatic facilities, for example, that's where I think you're more likely to see escalation. Escalation seems almost certain from the Iranians, but containing it also is something the Americans and Israel are trying very, very hard to do and that continues to be the case like when we saw the American servicemen killed in Jordan a couple months ago.
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Assuming it happens, remember Netanyahu was saying that he has a date now for the strike, but he said that strikes were going to start once Ramadan began if there had not been an agreement on this six-week, hostages for temporary ceasefire deal. There wasn't such a deal, Netanyahu backed off, he could back off again. Also, the ultimatum from the United States is not about a war in Rafah. It is about a large-scale ground war without providing the ability for the Palestinians to evacuate and get humanitarian aid.
Between those two positions there's a lot of wiggle room and one expects that the Israeli government, as they are thinking about those strikes, which I do believe will come, will try to claim domestically that they're doing what they need to clear up Hamas and claim to the Americans that it is at a reduced cost of civilians and it is engaged in the spirit of working with the Americans and not requiring Biden to shut down offensive support for Israel. That's where we are.
What's the fallout from Ecuador's raid of a Mexican embassy?
Well, the first thing is President Noboa of Ecuador, this is political. This is a former vice president who was taking, was sheltering in the Mexican embassy. You raid it, that is a breach of international law, but there is a security, largely security referendum, nationwide referendum coming up in just a couple of weeks in Ecuador that Noboa wants to win. He is ahead, it looks like he will win it now, and this is going to be very popular on the ground.
Guy had been sort of on their wanted list for a long time, but they decided to take that action now because of the domestic politics. So it helps him. Probably doesn't kill the IMF deal that is presently being negotiated, but certainly suspends diplomatic relations between the two countries and it's probably going to affect trade too. So you've alienated the Mexicans, but given the near-term political benefit for the Ecuadorian president, he thought that was a risk worth taking. Lots of impunity in this environment. It's one consistency that we see in our geopolitical recession, our GZERO world.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Banknotes of the new national currency Zimbabwe Gold, ZiG for short, are presented at a press conference of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe. Due to high inflation, Zimbabwe's central bank has introduced a new currency that is primarily linked to gold, but also to a number of other precious metals and foreign currencies.
Hard numbers: Zimbabwe’s new bills, Ecuador in hot water, Russian dam failure, Ukraine’s air defense, Island-sized lottery.
70: Zimbabwe is rolling out the ZiG, a new currency pegged to gold and foreign cash. The government hopes to curb the freefall of its erstwhile dollar, whose value has declined by over 70% since January. People have three weeks to exchange the old notes for the new currency.
2: Two countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, have cut ties with Ecuador following a police raid Friday on Mexico’s Quito embassy that resulted in the arrest of Ecuador’s former vice president, Jorge Glas. Glas had been staying in the embassy seeking asylum since December, when a warrant was issued for his arrest. President Lopez Obrador responded angrily, calling the raid a “flagrant violation of international law,” and Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega followed suit, referring to it as “reprehensible."
11,000: The failure of a dam in Orsk, Russia, has forced the evacuation of 11,000 residents and left over 4,000 buildings teetering on the brink. Several regional provinces in the area, near the Kazakhstan border, have suffered from flooding in recent days.
25: In a television interview that aired on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked allies for 25 US Patriot systems, saying they are vital to repelling Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles that can hit targets within minutes. As Russia’s relentless bombing continues, the Ukrainian president warns that his country is running out of air-defense missiles.
1.3 billion: An Oregon lottery player snagged a Powerball prize north of $1.3 billion after no other player hit the jackpot for three months. For context, that’s roughly the equivalent of Grenada’s GDP, minus the taxman's cut, of course.Soldiers keep watch in the militarized Litoral prison, part of the measures taken by Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa to crackdown on gangs, during a media tour in Guayaquil, Ecuador, Feb. 9, 2024.
Ecuador to vote on emergency measures amid spiraling violence
Ecuadorians will get their say on a slew of emergency measures meant to combat skyrocketing murders in their country — but they’ll have to wait more than two months.
A court has set April 21 as the date for a referendum on expanding the army’s powers, tightening control over guns and prisons, and raising penalties for trafficking.
President Daniel Noboa, the scion of a banana export dynasty who was elected last November, called for the vote as he battles an unprecedented surge of violence in the once-peaceful country. The cause? Record global demand for cocaine is driving a war among drug cartels for control over Ecuador’s ports.
Last year Ecuador’s homicide rate surpassed 40 per 100,000 inhabitants, more than quadruple the mark in 2020. In recent months, several prominent politicians, including a presidential candidate, have been gunned down. In January, armed men stormed a live television broadcast.
Strongman, but by the book: Noboa’s consultative approach contrasts with the authoritarian (and so far successful) tack of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. But it’s a gamble: If civil liberties concerns cause Ecuadorans to vote “no” on some questions, Noboa’s hands could be tied (at least partly) while the violence rages.
Daniel Noboa
Noboa wins, but Correa remains at heart of Ecuador’s political crisis
On Sunday, Ecuadorians elected their youngest-ever president, businessman Daniel Noboa, amid deep political rifts that exacerbate a growing security crisis in the small Andean nation.
Ecuador has become a major export route for drugs destined for Europe, and cartels brought their bloody tactics across the borders of Colombia and Peru. In July and August, three politicians, including outspoken anti-drug presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, were assassinated in separate incidents. The number of violent deaths in Ecuador doubled to over 4,600 between 2021 and 2022 and is set to break another record this year.
But layered on top of the crisis is the deep social divide over left-wing former President Rafael Correa. This weekend’s election was triggered when erstwhile President Guillermo Lasso — the first conservative president since Correa was elected in 2007 — resigned and dissolved Congress in the face of impeachment proceedings. Correa, who moved to Belgium after leaving office in 2017, was convicted of corruption charges in 2020.
Eurasia Group’s Director for Latin America, Risa Grais-Targow, says that Noboa’s careful positioning on correismo (the political ideology related to Correa), more than campaign promises about security or the economy, helped him win.
“The strength of his candidacy stemmed from the fact that he's a political newcomer who focused his campaign on appealing to the segment of the population that neither identifies as correista nor anti-correista,” she says.
Still, it may be hard for Noboa to deliver for those middle-of-the-road voters. His team’s political resumés run a little short, and he’ll have to cobble together a coalition in the legislature to get anything done. His party holds just 13 seats — well short of the 70-seat majority.
What’s more, Grais-Targow said Noboa can’t avoid the issue of Correa forever — with fresh elections for a full term scheduled for February 2025, everyone will be back on the campaign trail soon. That said, defeated correista candidate Luisa Gonzalez said her party would work with Noboa in Congress in her concession speech.
“The correistas still have an agenda related to former President Rafael Correa's legal cases,” says Grais-Targow. “They may be willing to support certain aspects of Noboa’s agenda in Congress, where they're going to actually have the largest share of seats, in exchange for giving them more sway over key institutional appointments that could shape the future of Correa's legal problems.”