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Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Windham, NH.
Hard Numbers: Trump’s bond, Saudis target Ethiopian migrants, missing in Maui, Ecuadorians’ pro-Amazon vote
200,000: Former President Donald Trump's bond in Georgia has been set at $200,000 ahead of a Friday deadline to turn himself in. As part of his release conditions, Trump, who is reportedly set to surrender for processing on Thursday, is banned from using social media to intimidate witnesses.
750,000: Saudi border guards have reportedly opened fire and launched explosives at Ethiopian migrants fleeing their country’s civil war in recent years, killing hundreds as they tried crossing into Saudi Arabia from Yemen, according to a new Human Rights Watch report. Some 750,000 Ethiopians now live in Saudi Arabia, the majority of them unauthorized.
850: That’s the number of missing people in Maui, Hawaii, following last week’s devastating wildfires. While 850 is far lower than the earlier estimates, which were closer to 2,000, officials are asking locals to give DNA samples to help with the sluggish victim recovery effort.
59: Ecuadorian voters failed to deliver a decisive win to any of the country’s presidential candidates on Sunday, paving the way for a runoff vote in October. But there was a clear win for the Amazon with 59% voting in favor of a referendum to reject all oil exploration in Yasuni National Park.
Ecuadorian presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez speaks during a presidential election night event, in Quito, Ecuador, on Aug. 20, 2023.
González leads, but a runoff looms in Ecuador
After an election marred by a high level of violence, including the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavencio, Ecuadorian voters have set the stage for a runoff between left-wing candidate Luisa González and political outsider Daniel Noboa, the scion of a major banana business. With 75% of the votes tallied, González leads Noboa 33% to 24%.
To win, a candidate needed 50% of the vote, or 40% support with a 10-point lead over their closest rival.
Should González win the runoff, the country risks remaining under the influence of disgraced former President Rafael Correa, whom González pledged to retain as an advisor. Since 2017, Correa has lived abroad in Belgium, allowing him to escape his 2020 prison sentence for corruption.
Villavicencio, a former journalist, had harshly criticized Correa and was credited with contributing to his conviction. Known for brazenly calling out corruption, organized crime, and drug traffickers, Villavicencio – who was not leading the pack when he was assassinated – was killed in a hail of bullets after a rally on Aug. 9. Six Colombian nationals have been arrested in connection with his murder.
Other politicians have also been murdered in recent months, but violence has not been limited to politics: Ecuador saw 3,568 violent deaths in the first six months of this year, a nearly 75% jump on the number of murders reported in the first half of 2022. That year ended with the highest number of violent deaths in Ecuador’s history, 4,600, double the total of the previous year – with the uptick blamed on drug trafficking and corruption.
On Sunday, some 100,000 police were dispatched to keep order on election day. A runoff vote will now be held in October. Whoever wins will face the challenge not only of reducing violence but restoring voter confidence in a shaken populace.Soldiers patrol an area next a road prior to Sunday's presidential election, in Quito, Ecuador.
Violence rages days before Ecuador's presidential vote
Less than a week after a presidential candidate was shot on the campaign trail in Quito, Ecuador’s capital, another politician was assassinated on Tuesday in the northern province of Esmeralda.
Pedro Briones, a local leader of the Revolución Ciudadana Party, was killed by a gunman on Tuesday, though details about the attacker remain scarce.
This comes just days after Fernando Villavicencio, an anti-crime warrior, was shot and killed ahead of the presidential ballot on Aug. 20. What’s more, in recent weeks, Agustín Intriago, the mayor of Manta, Ecuador’s third largest city, was also assassinated.
While there doesn’t appear to be a direct connection between these events, together they demonstrate the depths of the gang-related crime problem sweeping the country – which now has one of the highest homicide rates in Latin America.
Looking ahead: The killing of Villavicencio is having a significant impact on the vote. While Luisa Gonzales of the progressive Citizen Revolution Movement is still ahead in the polls, her chances of winning outright in a first round (reaping 50% of the vote) are dropping fast as some voters appear to blame her party (which long clashed with Villavicencio) for her rival’s demise. A competitive runoff would likely be held in October.A woman outside the damaged house of her son, who was killed the day before by shelling in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine.
Hard Numbers: Deadly shelling, drug kingpin's jail security, Lai sighting, Sweden soccer semi, twin takeover
7: Shelling in the southern Ukrainian province of Kherson Ukraine on Sunday killed seven people, including a 23-day-old baby girl. The attack followed denials by Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar that Ukrainian forces had engaged in Russian-occupied territory in the region.
4,000: The Ecuadorian government dispatched 4,000 military and police personnel to the Zonal 8 Detention Center in Guayas province, to “establish control over weapons, ammunition and explosives within the prison.” The jail is home to José Adolfo Macías Villamar, the drug trafficker who murdered presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio claimed had threatened him prior to his assassination. President Guillermo Lasso this weekend said Macías was relocated to La Roca maximum security prison in the same penitentiary complex.
23: Photos have surfaced of former Hong Kong newspaper publisher Jimmy Lai, the first taken since 2021. They show Lai accompanied by two guards at the maximum security Stanley Prison in Hong Kong, where the pro-democracy activist is kept in solitary confinement for 23 hours each day. Lai was sentenced to more than five years in prison for fraud in 2022, but he is awaiting trial on charges of endangering national security, which could lead to a life sentence.
4: Sweden’s women’s soccer team has advanced to the World Cup semi-final — its fourth big semi in four years. They reached the semi-finals of the 2019 World Cup, the 2020 Olympics, and Euro 2022, but they have yet to take home the crown. To make it to the finals this time, Sweden's women must beat Spain on Tuesday.
17: Must be something in the water. Primary schools in the Scottish town of Inverclyde, population 76,700, are preparing to welcome 17 sets of twins this fall. “Twinverclyde,” as the town has become known, has welcomed 147 sets of twins to its primary schools since 2013, an average of 13 sets a year.
Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio waves an Ecuadorian flag as he attends a rally in Quito, Ecuador, on Aug. 9, 2023.
Ecuador’s anti-corruption candidate assassinated
Villavicencio, 59, was the candidate for the Build Ecuador Movement and was polling fifth out of eight candidates in an election largely focused on Ecuador’s epidemic of gang violence. He was known for brazenly calling out corruption, organized crime, and drug traffickers. When embattled President Guillermo Lasso – who is not on the ballot – confirmed the assassination, he suggested that organized crime was responsible for the shooting.
Villavicencio’s assassination isn’t an isolated event. Over the past five years, Ecuador has been ravaged by violence associated with drug trafficking. Just a few weeks ago, the mayor of Manta was also assassinated. But Villavicencio’s death marks the first time that a presidential candidate has been killed on the campaign trail, upping the fear and outrage over the country’s growing security crisis.
Ecuador's President Guillermo Lasso addresses the nation in Quito.
Ecuador’s democracy gets Lassoed
We warned you this might happen … Early on Wednesday, Ecuador’s embattled President Guillermo Lasso dissolved parliament to scuttle his impeachment. Lasso can rule by decree for up to six months after triggering the so-called muerte cruzada or mutual death clause of the constitution, which mandates a new election in about 90 days.
(Recap: Lasso was facing an impeachment vote on embezzlement charges, which he says are politically motivated. Before the president smoked the proceedings, it was unclear whether the opposition had enough votes to convict him.)
In the short term, turmoil is all but assured in a country already wracked by violence from local gangs allied with Mexican drug cartels. "We're going to see major popular and institutional pushback to this move, with Congress trying to not recognize that as legitimate, and a significant amount of social unrest in the coming days," says Eurasia Group analyst Risa Grais-Targow.
Lasso, a center-right former banker, did not confirm he'll run for reelection in the snap vote, where the clear favorite is the left-wing party of former President Rafael Correa.
Ecuadorian president, Guillermo Lasso, during a press conference
Lasso on the brink
Lawmakers in Ecuador’s opposition-controlled National Assembly voted Tuesday to open an impeachment trial against President Guillermo Lasso, and a political crisis may not be far behind. His trial, on embezzlement charges, is scheduled to begin on May 20.
Lasso says the allegations are politically motivated and points out that the effort is spearheaded by 88 opposition lawmakers despite the legislative oversight commission’s recommendation not to impeach.
A two-thirds majority – 92 members – is needed to impeach the president, but 21 lawmakers were absent from the vote to open proceedings, and their future intentions are unclear. If Lasso decides the opposition has the votes to convict, the constitution allows him to dissolve the assembly and call new elections within six months. That’s a move that might plunge a country already wracked by drugs-related gang violence into deep political turmoil.
Reporter for U.S. newspaper The Wall Street Journal Evan Gershkovich, detained on suspicion of espionage, leaves a court building in Moscow, Russia March 30, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Moscow’s muscle flex, Bolsonaro’s return, Lasso losing his grip
Russia nabs US journalist
A Wall Street Journal reporter apprehended by Russia’s notorious Federal Security Bureau in the city of Yekaterinburg Thursday has appeared in court in the Russian capital on espionage charges, which the Journal has dismissed as bogus.
Evan Gershkovich, who works out of the Moscow bureau for the New-York based outlet and earlier this week penned a bombshell feature on how sanctions are hurting the Russian economy, was on a reporting trip when he was seen being escorted into an FSB van in scenes reminiscent of the Soviet era. Indeed, he’s the first US journalist to have been arrested by Russian authorities since Ronald Reagan was in the White House. The Committee to Protect Journalists has demanded his immediate and unconditional release.
The Kremlin claims that the 31-year-old reporter was “collecting state secrets” on behalf of the US government. But many analysts say this is likely an attempt by President Vladimir Putin to flex his muscles and gain some leverage amid reports that Russia is stalling in Ukraine, with one US general claiming that ongoing fighting in Bakhmut is a “slaughter-fest” for Moscow.
Putin may be looking to secure some sort of trade deal with the US, like he did last fall when Washington agreed to swap WNBA star Brittney Griner, held in a Russian prison, for Viktor Bout, a Russian citizen and notorious arms dealer held in US custody since 2008. But Griner was held for the lesser offense of possessing a small amount of weed oil. Espionage is a whole other ballgame.
We’ll also be watching to see whether US media outlets now respond by pulling reporters out of Russia. After all, the US State Department has urged all US citizens to leave the country fearing a situation just like this.
Bolsonaro back in Brazil
Brazil’s far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro ended his self-imposed exile in Florida on Thursday, returning home to lead the opposition against his archenemy, leftist President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. After losing the election to Lula last autumn, he never conceded and skipped town instead of attending the inauguration. Lula was confirmed on New Year’s Day, and a week later Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in the capital in Brazil’s own Jan. 6.
Lula must now decide whether to try to put Bolsonaro behind bars or ban him from politics — both of which could backfire because the former president remains hugely popular among his base. He should know: Lula was imprisoned for corruption in 2018, only to retake the presidency a few years later. Bolsonaro faces a litany of investigations, and while his advisors downplay the risk of him being jailed, the threat of legal action could mobilize his fans.
Bolsonaro’s return comes at a tricky time for Lula. While his approval ratings are higher than Bolsonaro’s, Lula campaigned on eradicating poverty but is struggling to pull the country out of an economic slump. He’s also been tussling with the central bank over high-interest rates, which he says is hurting the poor.
Will Lasso get lassoed?
Ecuador's constitutional court has given the go-ahead for parliament to pursue impeachment proceedings against President Guillermo Lasso over his brother-in-law’s alleged involvement in corruption and drug trafficking. This is only the first step in the process, but once it gets to the legislature, Lasso is in serious trouble: He's widely unpopular, and the opposition likely has enough votes to oust him.
If that happens, there are three possible scenarios. First, the conservative Lasso could step down and call a snap election, with the left-wing party of former President Rafael Correa a clear favorite. The embattled president could also let VP Alfredo Borrero take over, although he’d struggle to finish Lasso's term without making big political concessions and spending money Ecuador can't afford.
But the most likely — and dangerous — option is that Lasso challenges his removal by dissolving parliament before he’s impeached and rules by decree until a fresh election, as the Andean nation's constitution allows him to do. That outcome would trigger "chaos on the streets and maybe even a constitutional crisis," says Eurasia Group analyst Risa Grais-Targow.