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Supporters hold cardboard cutouts of Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, days before the Ecuadorian presidential election, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on Feb. 4, 2025.
Viewpoint: With his reelection bid, Ecuador’s Noboa seeks more time to bring violence under control
Ecuadorians will head to the polls on Feb. 9 to choose their next president against a backdrop of spiraling violence similar to that of the last presidential election in 2023. That was an early vote called by then-President Guillermo Lasso in an attempt to avoid impeachment. Daniel Noboa, the fresh-faced son of a banana magnate, achieved an upset victory, assumed the presidency, and launched an aggressive crackdown against the drug trafficking gangs terrorizing the country.
Less than two years later, the 38-year-old president is asking for a full term in office (four years) in this weekend’s regularly scheduled election. Noboa says he wants to finish what he started, and his clear lead in the polls suggests that voters are inclined to give him the opportunity. We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targow to learn more about the upcoming election.
What are voters’ biggest concerns?
The main issue by far is security, followed by economic concerns. There was a crisis of electricity outages toward the end of last year, but that has been abated by recent rains (the country is heavily dependent on hydropower) and fallen lower on the list of voter concerns. However, there has been a renewed deterioration of the security situation, and the start of this year has been one of the most violent ever.
What is driving this violence? Are political candidates being targeted, as in 2023?
No high-profile candidates have been targeted this time (presidential hopeful Fernando Villavicencio was shot and killed in 2023), but some local officials have been killed and there may be a political motive behind the latest wave of violence. Noboa has really made the fight against organized crime a pillar of his presidency. When he took office in January 2024, he declared a state of emergency, brought the military out onto the streets, and took control of the country’s prisons, which had been a hotbed of criminal activity. So criminal groups may be intensifying their battles for control of drug-transit routes partly in the hope that the resulting uptick in violence will lead voters to conclude the president’s approach is not working.
Is it working? Given these still high levels of violence under Noboa, why is he leading in the polls?
Noboa’s policies initially brought a dramatic decline in homicide rates and other violence. Since then, it’s possible that criminal groups found ways to work around them. Still, levels of violence are lower than at their late 2023 peak. More broadly, voters support Noboa’s policies and believe that he is doing the right thing or trying to do the right thing. They think he needs more time. He's only been in office for just over a year, so I think voters are still, at this juncture, willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Are there other reasons for this high level of support for Noboa?
I think that he is still viewed by voters as a bit of an outsider, someone who is shaking up Ecuadorian politics. He came out of nowhere in 2023 to win the election. He's very young and still kind of feels like a fresh face. The other thing he has going for him is that his main opponent, Luisa Gonzalez, is not a strong candidate with a clear message on the issues voters care about. She represents the correismo movement launched by former president Rafael Correa, which has a very loyal base but also is strongly disliked by some parts of the electorate.
What has happened to correismo? It used to be a dominant force in Ecuadorian politics, but its fortunes seem to have declined in the last couple of elections.
The movement has struggled to come up with a compelling forward-looking campaign message, focusing more on attacking Noboa and peddling nostalgia about conditions during Correa’s time in office (2007-2017). Moreover, the country’s security crisis has focused attention on decisions Correa made such as expelling the US military from the base in Manta. Similarly, the country’s current reliance on hydropower and shaky electricity grid stems from decisions made under Correa, including his flagship Chinese-built Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric dam, which has major structural problems.
At the same time, Noboa’s young National Democratic Action party seems to be consolidating its position. What is the significance of this?
Ecuadorian politics seems to be consolidating around two main parties, National Democratic Action and Correismo, which marks a departure from its typical fragmentation. This can be a stabilizing force for a country with a long history of political instability and volatility.
What are some things Ecuador’s next president could do to address the country’s problems?
Noboa wants to amend the constitution to allow foreign military bases in Ecuador, reversing the policy instituted by Correa. The country is doing battle with multinational criminal organizations – the groups in Ecuador report, for example, to Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel – so having foreign military and intelligence assistance is potentially a big deal. This is a popular idea locally but will need to be put to a public referendum. In terms of electricity supply, Noboa has been changing regulations to stimulate investment in new generation capacity, and I think if he is elected to a new four-year term, that could help get some of these projects moving. Finally, under the terms of the country’s financial support package from the IMF, the next president will have to raise tax revenue and cut back on fuel subsidies. The latter is a particularly challenging issue that has prompted mass public protests in the past.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group
Ecuador's President Guillermo Lasso addresses the nation in Quito.
Ecuador’s democracy gets Lassoed
We warned you this might happen … Early on Wednesday, Ecuador’s embattled President Guillermo Lasso dissolved parliament to scuttle his impeachment. Lasso can rule by decree for up to six months after triggering the so-called muerte cruzada or mutual death clause of the constitution, which mandates a new election in about 90 days.
(Recap: Lasso was facing an impeachment vote on embezzlement charges, which he says are politically motivated. Before the president smoked the proceedings, it was unclear whether the opposition had enough votes to convict him.)
In the short term, turmoil is all but assured in a country already wracked by violence from local gangs allied with Mexican drug cartels. "We're going to see major popular and institutional pushback to this move, with Congress trying to not recognize that as legitimate, and a significant amount of social unrest in the coming days," says Eurasia Group analyst Risa Grais-Targow.
Lasso, a center-right former banker, did not confirm he'll run for reelection in the snap vote, where the clear favorite is the left-wing party of former President Rafael Correa.
Ecuadorian president, Guillermo Lasso, during a press conference
Lasso on the brink
Lawmakers in Ecuador’s opposition-controlled National Assembly voted Tuesday to open an impeachment trial against President Guillermo Lasso, and a political crisis may not be far behind. His trial, on embezzlement charges, is scheduled to begin on May 20.
Lasso says the allegations are politically motivated and points out that the effort is spearheaded by 88 opposition lawmakers despite the legislative oversight commission’s recommendation not to impeach.
A two-thirds majority – 92 members – is needed to impeach the president, but 21 lawmakers were absent from the vote to open proceedings, and their future intentions are unclear. If Lasso decides the opposition has the votes to convict, the constitution allows him to dissolve the assembly and call new elections within six months. That’s a move that might plunge a country already wracked by drugs-related gang violence into deep political turmoil.
Reporter for U.S. newspaper The Wall Street Journal Evan Gershkovich, detained on suspicion of espionage, leaves a court building in Moscow, Russia March 30, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Moscow’s muscle flex, Bolsonaro’s return, Lasso losing his grip
Russia nabs US journalist
A Wall Street Journal reporter apprehended by Russia’s notorious Federal Security Bureau in the city of Yekaterinburg Thursday has appeared in court in the Russian capital on espionage charges, which the Journal has dismissed as bogus.
Evan Gershkovich, who works out of the Moscow bureau for the New-York based outlet and earlier this week penned a bombshell feature on how sanctions are hurting the Russian economy, was on a reporting trip when he was seen being escorted into an FSB van in scenes reminiscent of the Soviet era. Indeed, he’s the first US journalist to have been arrested by Russian authorities since Ronald Reagan was in the White House. The Committee to Protect Journalists has demanded his immediate and unconditional release.
The Kremlin claims that the 31-year-old reporter was “collecting state secrets” on behalf of the US government. But many analysts say this is likely an attempt by President Vladimir Putin to flex his muscles and gain some leverage amid reports that Russia is stalling in Ukraine, with one US general claiming that ongoing fighting in Bakhmut is a “slaughter-fest” for Moscow.
Putin may be looking to secure some sort of trade deal with the US, like he did last fall when Washington agreed to swap WNBA star Brittney Griner, held in a Russian prison, for Viktor Bout, a Russian citizen and notorious arms dealer held in US custody since 2008. But Griner was held for the lesser offense of possessing a small amount of weed oil. Espionage is a whole other ballgame.
We’ll also be watching to see whether US media outlets now respond by pulling reporters out of Russia. After all, the US State Department has urged all US citizens to leave the country fearing a situation just like this.
Bolsonaro back in Brazil
Brazil’s far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro ended his self-imposed exile in Florida on Thursday, returning home to lead the opposition against his archenemy, leftist President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. After losing the election to Lula last autumn, he never conceded and skipped town instead of attending the inauguration. Lula was confirmed on New Year’s Day, and a week later Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in the capital in Brazil’s own Jan. 6.
Lula must now decide whether to try to put Bolsonaro behind bars or ban him from politics — both of which could backfire because the former president remains hugely popular among his base. He should know: Lula was imprisoned for corruption in 2018, only to retake the presidency a few years later. Bolsonaro faces a litany of investigations, and while his advisors downplay the risk of him being jailed, the threat of legal action could mobilize his fans.
Bolsonaro’s return comes at a tricky time for Lula. While his approval ratings are higher than Bolsonaro’s, Lula campaigned on eradicating poverty but is struggling to pull the country out of an economic slump. He’s also been tussling with the central bank over high-interest rates, which he says is hurting the poor.
Will Lasso get lassoed?
Ecuador's constitutional court has given the go-ahead for parliament to pursue impeachment proceedings against President Guillermo Lasso over his brother-in-law’s alleged involvement in corruption and drug trafficking. This is only the first step in the process, but once it gets to the legislature, Lasso is in serious trouble: He's widely unpopular, and the opposition likely has enough votes to oust him.
If that happens, there are three possible scenarios. First, the conservative Lasso could step down and call a snap election, with the left-wing party of former President Rafael Correa a clear favorite. The embattled president could also let VP Alfredo Borrero take over, although he’d struggle to finish Lasso's term without making big political concessions and spending money Ecuador can't afford.
But the most likely — and dangerous — option is that Lasso challenges his removal by dissolving parliament before he’s impeached and rules by decree until a fresh election, as the Andean nation's constitution allows him to do. That outcome would trigger "chaos on the streets and maybe even a constitutional crisis," says Eurasia Group analyst Risa Grais-Targow.
Members of of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prepare amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near Bahmut, Ukraine.
What We're Watching: A looming Russian offensive, Biden’s State of the Union, Lasso’s losses
Ukraine prepares for Russian assault amid troubling rumors
The Institute for the Study of War, a military think tank based in Washington, DC, has forecast that Russia will launch a major military offensive in eastern Ukraine in the coming weeks. (Russia remains much less likely to again send troops from Belarus toward Kyiv because Ukrainian troops are now even better armed and positioned in the north than when they routed Russian forces last spring.) Ukrainian intel officials say Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian forces to capture the full territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by the end of March, and Ukraine’s defense minister has warned that Russian forces may have mobilized a lot more soldiers than has been widely reported in Western media. Preparations for a Russian offensive and a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive come at a tricky moment for Ukraine. Rumors are flying that President Volodymyr Zelensky may replace Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov following the ministry’s suspected involvement in a corruption scheme involving overpayment for food – though Reznikov has not been personally implicated. We’ll be watching to see what happens next, but Zelensky has not yet publicly addressed the conflicting reports.
Ecuador’s Lasso trips himself up
Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso was hoping that a successful constitutional referendum would boost his low approval ratings. It didn’t turn out that way. Defying pollsters, voters on Sunday rejected all eight proposals, including key amendments to allow Ecuador to extradite narco suspects and to slim down the country’s fractious Congress. Adding insult to injury, opposition figures from the left-wing party of exiled former President Rafael Correa also won control of several key municipalities, including the capital, Quito, and Guayaquil, the country’s largest city, traditionally a center-right stronghold. The results are a big blow to the conservative Lasso, who was nearly impeached last summer during widespreadindigenous protests. Left-leaning “Correismo” is now the main political force to reckon with ahead of the 2025 general elections. Will the deeply unpopular Lasso make it that far?
What to expect from Biden’s State of the Union
On Tuesday, President Joe Biden will deliver his second State of the Union address in what’s broadly considered to be the prelude to his reelection announcement in the weeks ahead. Seated in front of VP Kamala Harris and newly elected House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Biden will seek to reinforce his image as a problem solver who’s above the fray of petty partisanship. Of greater interest, however, is whether he can convince the American people that efforts to curb cost-of-living pressures are working. While data suggests that prices for many commodities are coming down – and unemployment is at a five-decade low – it can be difficult to sell that to everyday Americans who still feel the pinch of inflation at the grocery store. Crucially, there will be plenty of outsiders tuning in, too: Ukraine’s government will be looking at how Republican lawmakers respond to Biden’s call for ongoing support to Kyiv. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping will be keen to see whether Biden seeks to escalate the war of words over the recent spy balloon scandal. After the speech, Biden will make stops in Florida and Wisconsin, two battleground states, suggesting that the 2024 race will soon heat up.
G7 and EU leaders gather for a group shot at Schloss Elmau castle in Germany.
What We're Watching: West gets tough(er) on Russia, protests rock Ecuador, Qatar pushes Iran nuclear talks
Western leaders up the ante
Leaders of the G7 — the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Canada — have ended their gathering in the Bavarian Alps, and all of them, including non-NATO member Japan’s prime minister, have arrived in Madrid for a NATO summit set for June 28-30. The agendas for both gatherings have included a range of topics, but none more urgent than collective responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine. There will be more announcements this week on how best to impose heavy near- and longer-term costs on Russia by banning the import of Russian oil and possibly imposing a price cap on the small volumes of Russian oil Western countries still buy. But Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky will continue to warn that Ukraine can’t afford a protracted war and that his military needs powerful weapons ASAP to beat back slow-but-steady Russian advances in the Donbas region. The US has promised to deliver an advanced air defense system. Russia has responded to these gatherings by renewing long-range artillery strikes on Kyiv and other cities, including a missile strike on Monday that hit a shopping mall with more than 1,000 civilians inside.
Protests imperil Ecuador's oil exports
Ecuador, the fifth-largest oil producer in South America, was pumping about 500,000 barrels a day before recent protests began to wreak havoc nationwide. For more than two weeks, Indigenous groups have led protests demanding that the government take action to lower soaring prices for food and fuel, increase investment in health care and education, and cut back on mining activities. Clashes between protesters and police have left several dead. Over the weekend, President Guillermo Lasso lifted a recent state of emergency and agreed to a modest fuel price cut of 10 cents per gallon as part of an agreement to open direct talks with Indigenous leaders. But with no comprehensive deal in place, the demonstrations continue, and the Andean oil exporter says it could stop producing crude entirely this week as ongoing violence and vandalism make wells and transport infrastructure impossible to use.
The (im)possible future of the US-Iran nuclear deal
The US and Iran are resuming efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal that has been on life-support since negotiations stalled back in March. On Tuesday, both sides will hold indirect talks — mediated by the Europeans and hosted by Qatar — in a push to revive the deal, ditched by Donald Trump in 2018, that sought to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. Still, several sticking points remain, including Tehran’s demand that the US lift crippling economic sanctions as well as that Washington remove Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps from the US Foreign Terrorist Organization list (though there have been reports that Iran is willing to let the latter go — at least for now). Timing is critical: for months, US officials have warned that Iran is close to having enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. Fears of Iran’s increasingly bellicose actions have many of its neighbors on edge and have led to the formation of new regional alliances. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the US held a secret meeting in March between US, Israeli, and Arab military officers (notably including the Saudis, who don’t have diplomatic ties with Israel) to discuss how to counter Tehran’s missile and drone capabilities. Tensions are also bubbling in Tehran over Biden’s upcoming visits to both Israel and Saudi Arabia. While news of resumed talks will boost hopes for a resolution, the White House is taking a measured approach, saying that “we are keeping our expectations very much in check.”Guillermo Lasso and his wife Maria de Lourdes Alcivar react after Lasso wins Ecuador's presidential runoff vote.
What We’re Watching: Andean election results, China’s vaccine effectiveness
Andean aftermath: Two big weekend elections in South America produced two stunning results. In Ecuador's presidential runoff, the center-right former banker Guillermo Lasso upset early frontrunner Andrés Arauz, a leftist handpicked by former president Rafael Correa. Lasso will take power amid the social and economic devastation of the pandemic and will have to reckon with the rising political power of Ecuador's indigenous population: the Pachakutik party, which focuses on environmental issues and indigenous rights, is now the second-largest party in parliament. Meanwhile, in a big surprise next door in Perú, far-left union leader Pedro Castillo tallied up the most votes in the first round of that country's highly fragmented presidential election. As of Monday evening it's not clear whom he'll face in the June runoff, but three figures are in the running as votes are counted: prominent neoliberal economist Hernando De Soto, rightwing businessman Rafael López Aliaga, and conservative Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the country's imprisoned former strongman. Meanwhile, in the congressional ballot, at least 10 parties reached the threshold to win seats, but there is no clear majority or obvious coalition in sight.
Protests against Ecuadoran President Lenin Moreno's austerity measures in Quito in October 2019.
An exhausted Ecuador votes
On Sunday, Ecuadorans head to the polls after what has been, by any standards, a hellish 18 months.
In October 2019, the oil-dependent Andean country of 17 million people was wracked by protests and violent clashes over a plan to cut fuel subsidies that was part of a lending lifeline from the International Monetary Fund.
Several months later COVID swept in with such fury that bodies were seen piled up in the streets of Guayaquil, Ecuador's main industrial hub. As a result of the pandemic, the country has seen the third highest excess death rate in the world.
Then, last April, former president Rafael Correa — a devotee of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez who harnessed an oil boom to implement his own free-spending version of "21st century socialism" from 2007-2017 — was found guilty in absentia of massive graft charges, convulsing an already deeply fragmented political landscape.
Now Ecuadorans, exhausted by the pandemic and a plummeting economy, are presented with a slate of no less than 16 presidential candidates, representing a kaleidoscope of flimsy parties with thin platforms. Correa still looms large, even from exile in Europe.
Small wonder then that half of voters are still undecided, and more than a third say they will spoil their ballots or leave them blank. Apathy is running high — "What does it matter?" is the prevailing feeling, according to one prominent local observer (text in Spanish).
Heading into the homestretch, there are really only three contenders with a shot.
The throwback socialist: Andrés Arauz, is the preferred candidate of Correa, whom he served as Minister of Knowledge and Human Talent. The 35-year-old Arauz is banking on Ecuadorans' fond memories of the "good years" under Correa, when high oil prices fueled government spending and economic growth. The problem for him is: oil prices aren't high anymore.
The "continuity candidate": Guillermo Lasso, a former minister and governor who is running from the right as a pro-business social conservative. He generally supports the deal that Ecuador recently struck with the IMF, though he is also making late promises to raise wages and lower taxes which will raise eyebrows among the beancounters at the Fund. Lasso's biggest challenge is that it's tough to be the status quo guy at a time when more than 90 percent of the population thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction.
The outsider: Yaku Pérez, an environmental and indigenous rights activist who helped lead the 2019 protests. He is fiercely opposed to the IMF deal, wants to rein in mining (a tough sell in a mineral rich country where oil accounts for half of all export earnings) and has proposed a universal basic income. Pérez's challenge is to expand his appeal beyond indigenous groups (about 9 percent of the population) and green-friendly liberals in the cities.
Polls currently have Arauz in the lead, but he will need to win 50 percent of the vote — or exceed 40 percent with a 10-point margin — to avoid a runoff in April in which Pérez, the likely third-place finisher, could become a kingmaker of sorts.
Tough job if you can get it: Whoever wins Ecuador's presidency will have to contend with a fragmented congress, continued low oil prices, and tough negotiations with the IMF.
On the other hand, after the past 18 months, the bar is low enough that any change might feel like a glimmer of progress.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article stated incorrectly that the population of Ecuador is 13 million. That number actually refers to the population only of eligible voters. We regret the error.