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Daniel Noboa
Noboa wins, but Correa remains at heart of Ecuador’s political crisis
On Sunday, Ecuadorians elected their youngest-ever president, businessman Daniel Noboa, amid deep political rifts that exacerbate a growing security crisis in the small Andean nation.
Ecuador has become a major export route for drugs destined for Europe, and cartels brought their bloody tactics across the borders of Colombia and Peru. In July and August, three politicians, including outspoken anti-drug presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, were assassinated in separate incidents. The number of violent deaths in Ecuador doubled to over 4,600 between 2021 and 2022 and is set to break another record this year.
But layered on top of the crisis is the deep social divide over left-wing former President Rafael Correa. This weekend’s election was triggered when erstwhile President Guillermo Lasso — the first conservative president since Correa was elected in 2007 — resigned and dissolved Congress in the face of impeachment proceedings. Correa, who moved to Belgium after leaving office in 2017, was convicted of corruption charges in 2020.
Eurasia Group’s Director for Latin America, Risa Grais-Targow, says that Noboa’s careful positioning on correismo (the political ideology related to Correa), more than campaign promises about security or the economy, helped him win.
“The strength of his candidacy stemmed from the fact that he's a political newcomer who focused his campaign on appealing to the segment of the population that neither identifies as correista nor anti-correista,” she says.
Still, it may be hard for Noboa to deliver for those middle-of-the-road voters. His team’s political resumés run a little short, and he’ll have to cobble together a coalition in the legislature to get anything done. His party holds just 13 seats — well short of the 70-seat majority.
What’s more, Grais-Targow said Noboa can’t avoid the issue of Correa forever — with fresh elections for a full term scheduled for February 2025, everyone will be back on the campaign trail soon. That said, defeated correista candidate Luisa Gonzalez said her party would work with Noboa in Congress in her concession speech.
“The correistas still have an agenda related to former President Rafael Correa's legal cases,” says Grais-Targow. “They may be willing to support certain aspects of Noboa’s agenda in Congress, where they're going to actually have the largest share of seats, in exchange for giving them more sway over key institutional appointments that could shape the future of Correa's legal problems.”
Reporter for U.S. newspaper The Wall Street Journal Evan Gershkovich, detained on suspicion of espionage, leaves a court building in Moscow, Russia March 30, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Moscow’s muscle flex, Bolsonaro’s return, Lasso losing his grip
Russia nabs US journalist
A Wall Street Journal reporter apprehended by Russia’s notorious Federal Security Bureau in the city of Yekaterinburg Thursday has appeared in court in the Russian capital on espionage charges, which the Journal has dismissed as bogus.
Evan Gershkovich, who works out of the Moscow bureau for the New-York based outlet and earlier this week penned a bombshell feature on how sanctions are hurting the Russian economy, was on a reporting trip when he was seen being escorted into an FSB van in scenes reminiscent of the Soviet era. Indeed, he’s the first US journalist to have been arrested by Russian authorities since Ronald Reagan was in the White House. The Committee to Protect Journalists has demanded his immediate and unconditional release.
The Kremlin claims that the 31-year-old reporter was “collecting state secrets” on behalf of the US government. But many analysts say this is likely an attempt by President Vladimir Putin to flex his muscles and gain some leverage amid reports that Russia is stalling in Ukraine, with one US general claiming that ongoing fighting in Bakhmut is a “slaughter-fest” for Moscow.
Putin may be looking to secure some sort of trade deal with the US, like he did last fall when Washington agreed to swap WNBA star Brittney Griner, held in a Russian prison, for Viktor Bout, a Russian citizen and notorious arms dealer held in US custody since 2008. But Griner was held for the lesser offense of possessing a small amount of weed oil. Espionage is a whole other ballgame.
We’ll also be watching to see whether US media outlets now respond by pulling reporters out of Russia. After all, the US State Department has urged all US citizens to leave the country fearing a situation just like this.
Bolsonaro back in Brazil
Brazil’s far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro ended his self-imposed exile in Florida on Thursday, returning home to lead the opposition against his archenemy, leftist President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. After losing the election to Lula last autumn, he never conceded and skipped town instead of attending the inauguration. Lula was confirmed on New Year’s Day, and a week later Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in the capital in Brazil’s own Jan. 6.
Lula must now decide whether to try to put Bolsonaro behind bars or ban him from politics — both of which could backfire because the former president remains hugely popular among his base. He should know: Lula was imprisoned for corruption in 2018, only to retake the presidency a few years later. Bolsonaro faces a litany of investigations, and while his advisors downplay the risk of him being jailed, the threat of legal action could mobilize his fans.
Bolsonaro’s return comes at a tricky time for Lula. While his approval ratings are higher than Bolsonaro’s, Lula campaigned on eradicating poverty but is struggling to pull the country out of an economic slump. He’s also been tussling with the central bank over high-interest rates, which he says is hurting the poor.
Will Lasso get lassoed?
Ecuador's constitutional court has given the go-ahead for parliament to pursue impeachment proceedings against President Guillermo Lasso over his brother-in-law’s alleged involvement in corruption and drug trafficking. This is only the first step in the process, but once it gets to the legislature, Lasso is in serious trouble: He's widely unpopular, and the opposition likely has enough votes to oust him.
If that happens, there are three possible scenarios. First, the conservative Lasso could step down and call a snap election, with the left-wing party of former President Rafael Correa a clear favorite. The embattled president could also let VP Alfredo Borrero take over, although he’d struggle to finish Lasso's term without making big political concessions and spending money Ecuador can't afford.
But the most likely — and dangerous — option is that Lasso challenges his removal by dissolving parliament before he’s impeached and rules by decree until a fresh election, as the Andean nation's constitution allows him to do. That outcome would trigger "chaos on the streets and maybe even a constitutional crisis," says Eurasia Group analyst Risa Grais-Targow.
Protests against Ecuadoran President Lenin Moreno's austerity measures in Quito in October 2019.
An exhausted Ecuador votes
On Sunday, Ecuadorans head to the polls after what has been, by any standards, a hellish 18 months.
In October 2019, the oil-dependent Andean country of 17 million people was wracked by protests and violent clashes over a plan to cut fuel subsidies that was part of a lending lifeline from the International Monetary Fund.
Several months later COVID swept in with such fury that bodies were seen piled up in the streets of Guayaquil, Ecuador's main industrial hub. As a result of the pandemic, the country has seen the third highest excess death rate in the world.
Then, last April, former president Rafael Correa — a devotee of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez who harnessed an oil boom to implement his own free-spending version of "21st century socialism" from 2007-2017 — was found guilty in absentia of massive graft charges, convulsing an already deeply fragmented political landscape.
Now Ecuadorans, exhausted by the pandemic and a plummeting economy, are presented with a slate of no less than 16 presidential candidates, representing a kaleidoscope of flimsy parties with thin platforms. Correa still looms large, even from exile in Europe.
Small wonder then that half of voters are still undecided, and more than a third say they will spoil their ballots or leave them blank. Apathy is running high — "What does it matter?" is the prevailing feeling, according to one prominent local observer (text in Spanish).
Heading into the homestretch, there are really only three contenders with a shot.
The throwback socialist: Andrés Arauz, is the preferred candidate of Correa, whom he served as Minister of Knowledge and Human Talent. The 35-year-old Arauz is banking on Ecuadorans' fond memories of the "good years" under Correa, when high oil prices fueled government spending and economic growth. The problem for him is: oil prices aren't high anymore.
The "continuity candidate": Guillermo Lasso, a former minister and governor who is running from the right as a pro-business social conservative. He generally supports the deal that Ecuador recently struck with the IMF, though he is also making late promises to raise wages and lower taxes which will raise eyebrows among the beancounters at the Fund. Lasso's biggest challenge is that it's tough to be the status quo guy at a time when more than 90 percent of the population thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction.
The outsider: Yaku Pérez, an environmental and indigenous rights activist who helped lead the 2019 protests. He is fiercely opposed to the IMF deal, wants to rein in mining (a tough sell in a mineral rich country where oil accounts for half of all export earnings) and has proposed a universal basic income. Pérez's challenge is to expand his appeal beyond indigenous groups (about 9 percent of the population) and green-friendly liberals in the cities.
Polls currently have Arauz in the lead, but he will need to win 50 percent of the vote — or exceed 40 percent with a 10-point margin — to avoid a runoff in April in which Pérez, the likely third-place finisher, could become a kingmaker of sorts.
Tough job if you can get it: Whoever wins Ecuador's presidency will have to contend with a fragmented congress, continued low oil prices, and tough negotiations with the IMF.
On the other hand, after the past 18 months, the bar is low enough that any change might feel like a glimmer of progress.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article stated incorrectly that the population of Ecuador is 13 million. That number actually refers to the population only of eligible voters. We regret the error.