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Are we entering a new era of nuclear weapons testing?
President Trump misinterpreted Vladimir Putin’s comments about nuclear-powered weapons; he reportedly ordered preparations to test US nuclear weapons, sparking Russia and North Korea to signal they might do the same.
Bildt explains how this confusion could reverse 35 years of progress in limiting nuclear tests and destabilize an already volatile world on GZERO Europe.
Argentina's President Javier Milei gestures after the La Libertad Avanza party won the midterm election, which is seen as crucial for Milei's administration after US President Donald Trump warned that future support for Argentina would depend on Milei's party performing well in the vote, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on October 26, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Milei sticks to his guns, Putin gets ready to test, Central Asia comes to Washington
Argentina’s Milei says no float just yet
Argentine President Javier Milei says he still won’t float the peso freely, signaling he’ll continue to spend his country’s central bank reserves to artificially manage the exchange rate until the 2027 presidential election. Why is that a big deal? Just last month, ahead of the midterm elections, Milei got $2 billion from the United States – as well as a $20 billion credit line – to shore up dwindling reserves. Keeping the currency strong is part of his broader effort to bring down inflation, which includes taking a chainsaw to government spending. But investors expected that after the midterms – which he won handily – he’d move in a more market- friendly direction, letting the peso float. So much for that. If the policy puts reserves in danger again, will the self-styled “anarcho-capitalist” president get another bailout from Tío Sam?
Putin signals he’s ready to match any new US nuclear tests
Just days after US President Donald Trump announced that the Pentagon would resume nuclear testing – without going into some key details – Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled he is ready to do the same, asking members of his security council yesterday for proposals. Neither country has tested a nuclear warhead in decades, although both still test and maintain delivery systems such as rockets and missiles. A return to actual warhead testing could provoke a dangerous new arms race at a time when arms control agreements are already withering fast. For more, see our recent report here.
The ‘stans come to stan Trump
The leaders of the five Central Asian republics – can you name them? – will meet with Trump at the White House today. Russia has long dominated the resource-rich former-Soviet region, but China has made significant commercial inroads in recent years. Trump is seeking greater US access to critical minerals and other resources there, while the Central Asians – wary of both Russian intentions and China’s heft – are keen to diversify their economic and security ties. (Btw, the five are: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Did you get ‘em all?)
US President Donald Trump (sixth from left) and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (seventh from left) arrive at the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) in Yokosuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, on October 28, 2025.
Bombs away: Are we entering a new nuclear arms race?
Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington will restart nuclear-weapons testing, raising fears that it could end a 33-year moratorium on nuclear-warhead testing.
“Because of other countries (sic) testing programs,” Trump said, “I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”
What is nuclear testing? Nuclear powers – including the US, Russia, and others – test missiles and other delivery systems regularly. Russia has recently been developing new cruise missiles and underwater drones that are nuclear capable. However, no nation other than North Korea has been confirmed to test a nuclear warhead in over three decades. In an interview aired Sunday on CBS, Trump claimed, “Russia’s testing, and China’s testing, but they don’t talk about it.” Both countries deny the allegation. International agreements from the 1960s ban nuclear testing.
What tests will the US actually conduct? On Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News, “I think the tests we’re talking about right now are systems tests... These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call noncritical explosions.”
Why announce testing now? Trump made the announcement just prior to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last Thursday. In the past five years, Beijing has doubled its nuclear arsenal to 600 weapons, and the Pentagon estimates that China will have more than 1,000 by 2030. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the US and Russia are still the top two nuclear powers with 5177 and 5459 respectively.
Vice President JD Vance said all three countries have a large nuclear arsenal and that “sometimes you’ve got to test it to make sure it’s functioning and working properly.”
The move comes amidst a disintegrating arms control regime. In the 1970s and 80s the US and the USSR sought to limit the growth of their nuclear arsenals through the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) I and II and the INF treaty, which reduced total warhead count and eliminated the development of ground-launched nuclear missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. In the 1990s and 2000s, the US and Russia concluded three Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START) Treaties, ultimately capping the number of deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 each.
But in recent years arms control has been unravelling. In 2019, the US withdrew from a treaty that outlawed intermediate range nuclear missiles, because it said Russia had been violating the pact. Four years later, Moscow suspended its participation in START II and resumed testing nuclear weapons delivery systems.
What risks lie ahead? Trump wants to conduct as many tests as Russia and China “within five years,” which could spur both nations to increase their testing to remain competitive. Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association, warned that Trump's announcement could “trigger a chain reaction of nuclear testing by U.S. adversaries, and blow apart the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
Ending the “testing taboo” could also encourage smaller nuclear nations like North Korea, Pakistan and India, and aspiring nuclear powers like Iran, to engage in testing as well.
And even if testing is confined to new delivery systems alone, the race to develop new, stealthier and more destructive nuclear missiles, rockets, and drones is likely to accelerate.
All of this has scientists considering advancing the hands of the so-called “doomsday clock.” Currently, they sit at 89 seconds to midnight – the closest they have ever been.
Russia leaves nuclear test ban treaty in show of public posturing
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
What can be done by Europe or others to help the 1.7 million Afghan refugees that are now being expelled from Pakistan back into Afghanistan?
Well, sorry to say the answer is not very much can be done. We are delivering humanitarian aid to some extent, and the UN is there to Afghanistan, but to take care of or to help substantially 1.7 million people that are expelled from Pakistan is going to be very difficult. Relationship with the Taliban regime is virtually non-existent, so it's one of these tragedies that are happening at the same time as we have the Gaza War and the Ukraine War.
Does Europe feel less secure now that Russia has revoked its ratification of the test ban treaty?
Well, not really changing very much. What the Russians are doing is that they're doing, to the same situation as the Americans have, because the US hasn't ratified the CTBT either, but they adhere to it, and that is just as well. So, the Russians decided, and I think it's a signaling effect to some extent, that nuclear weapons are there and that they, at some point in time, might presume nuclear testing. But until they do that, and I hope they don't, it doesn't mean very much, but it shows that they are sort of playing around with nuclear weapons and with public posturing with nuclear weapons, which of course is less than good.