Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
UK's new PM Starmer aims for closer EU ties
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Adriatic Sea.
How will the new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reset relations at home and abroad?
Well, I think overall there's going to be a lot of continuity in terms of foreign and security policies. They've already sent the defense secretary to Kyiv to say that if anything, it's going to be even stronger support. But in terms of Europe, it’s going to be a new nuance and new attempts. The new foreign secretary, David Lammy, has already been to Germany, he's been to Poland, he’s been to Sweden, and he's talked about a European pact, foreign and security issues, cooperating more closely. And he's been invited to a meeting with all of the foreign ministers. So that's where we are likely to see, some change in the months and perhaps years ahead.
How did Macron survive the snap election in France?
Yep, that remains to be seen. There was, of course, a surprise result in the sense that the extreme right came in third after first the left, which has some extreme element, and then President Macron's coalition. But it's a hung parliament. There's no clear answer who's going to govern. So, we'll have to wait and see what's going to be the governance of France. I think the emphasis has shifted from isolating the far right to isolating the far left and see some sort of stable government can be made out of that. Very much an open question.
France's snap election: Understanding why Macron took the risk
With Emmanuel Macron’s approval ratings at a historic low, and far-right parties gaining popularity, could France’s upcoming election be its own “Brexit” moment? Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss snap elections in the UK and France, the complexities of Brexit, and its ongoing impact on domestic politics in Europe.
“There are a wide range of aspects of the UK-European relationship which don't work,” Carney says, “There's massive red tape, for example, in agricultural products, massive red tape and delays at the border, the inner workings of a very interconnected financial system.”
Calling a snap election in France is a big risk, Carney explains, but after his party underperformed in the EU parliamentary elections, Macron wants a referendum from the French people. He’s betting that voters used the EU election to send a message but will vote more moderately in national elections closer to home. Meanwhile, Labour is expected to win big in the UK elections, but the aftermath of Brexit still looms large. But the geopolitics of 2024 are very different than in 2016 during the Brexit referendum.
“There's a range of things that could be made better if the UK government and the European government wanted to work together,” Carney stresses, “And it's all operating in a GZERO World.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Eric Ciotti speaks to media in front of the LR heaquarters in Paris, France on June 11, 2024. The president of the Republicains, Eric Ciotti, announced on TF1 on Tuesday 11 June that he would like his party to form an alliance with the Rassemblement National for the legislative elections.
France’s center right splits over cooperating with Le Pen
The leader of France’s center-right party, Les Republicains, set off a firestorm on Tuesday by suggesting he would be open to an alliance with the far-right National Rally in upcoming snap elections. Éric Ciotti said his party’s dismal performance in European parliament elections over the weekend — fifth place, and just six seats — meant he felt obligated to work with Marine Le Pen to fend off the “threat to the nation” from the left wing and centrist parties.
Le Pen called the decision “brave,” but it’s driving a wedge through France’s traditional conservative party. Olivier Marleix, who leads Les Republicains in the lower house, called for Ciotti to step down and said he would not participate in any agreement with the far right, a sentiment many in the party echoed.
That’s exactly the kind of reaction President Emmanuel Macron is betting on to keep his party in control of the legislature in the upcoming vote on June 30. It’s worked for him before: French voters who went to Les Republicains or a party on the fractured left wing in the first rounds of the 2017 and 2022 elections begrudgingly pulled the lever for Macron in the second round after seeing a strong initial showing for Le Pen.
Can he make it a hat trick? Maybe, but it’s a huge gamble, and Macron’s approval polls are weaker now than they were two years ago. But if voters react like Marleix, he has a shot.French President Emmanuel Macron attends a ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the massacre of 643 persons by Nazi German forces, in Oradour-sur-Glane, France, June 10, 2024.
Macron rolls the dice on France’s future
Following a humbling 17-point defeat to Marine Le Pen’s far-right opposition party in the EU Parliament elections this weekend, France’s President Emmanuel Macron shocked the world by calling for snap elections to be held on June 30.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also suffered defeat to the far-right over the weekend, but he rejected demands for him to follow in Macron’s footsteps and call a snap election.
Macron’s logique: Macron is daring French voters to vote the same way domestically that they did this weekend for the European Parliament – which has long been seen as a protest vote.
According to Eurasia Group’s Europe directorMujtaba Rahman, “Macron believes he can defy the polls by confronting France with a stark choice between the pro-EU, pro-Ukraine & centrist status quo versus the existential risk of a far-right government.”
Macron is making a huge gamble on France's future. Polls suggest his centrist coalition will fail to win a majority, and if Le Pen’s National Rally picks up the most seats, France will be in uncharted waters. Le Pen has said she would partially withhold EU funding, toughen migration policy, infringe on the EU single market by prioritizing French business, and limit aid to Ukraine.Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a news conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo
Japan snap election speculation grows
Quick recap: Since Kishida took office in October of 2021, he has faced serious questions about his political viability. The period following last year’s assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe, which put a spotlight on the ruling party's ties with the controversial Unification Church, was particularly tough. That combined with high consumer prices had some polls at a sub-30% approval rating, an area known as the “danger zone” for Japanese prime ministers.
But Kishida’s approval ratings have soared in the wake of the G7 summit in Hiroshima in May. Kishida has also improved relations with South Korea and taken a hard line on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “He has positioned himself as an international statesman,” says Boling, which in today’s world of heightened geopolitical risk has benefitted Kishida politically.
Even though official elections aren’t due for the lower house until late 2025, winning a snap election would solidify Kishida’s power before the end of his term as president of the Liberal Democratic Party in September 2024. So with his popularity on the rise, Boling thinks that Kishida could decide to “strike while the iron is hot” and capitalize on high public support by calling a snap election this summer.
But there is also a case for Kishida waiting to call the snap elections until later in the year, closer to the LDP presidential elections. “Kishida's real political threats are within his own party, not the opposition parties,” says Boling. By delaying, he increases his chances of retaining the party role because internal opponents will be more reluctant to challenge him.
Opposition lawmakers have threatened to submit a no-confidence vote before the parliamentary session ends on June 21, which could also trigger a snap election. While the opposition party, the Japan Innovation Party, is on the rise, Boling warns that “they need to be careful what they wish for” if they think a snap election would end in their favor. In a by-election in April, the LDP won four of the five seats up for grabs.
Kishida stoked the election rumors at a press conference on Tuesday over his government’s plan to reverse Japan's rapidly declining birth rate through childcare spending and tax incentives. When asked about a snap election, he did not deny that it was a possibility, instead noting that he was monitoring the political climate.