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Election season is here
As we race toward the end of 2025, voters in over a dozen countries will head to the polls for elections that have major implications for their populations and political movements globally.
Today, GZERO is highlighting three of them that stand out to us – in the United States, Argentina, and Côte d’Ivoire. The issues each of those electorates face are different, but the results could provide insight into the future of larger political trends.
Democrats seek a glimmer of hope
The United States doesn’t have a nationwide election this fall, but it has plenty of local ones to pique the interest of political nerds. These include the mayoral election in New York City, gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, and state Supreme Court races in the purple state of Pennsylvania – Election Day for all them is Nov. 4.
“Democrats probably should win all those races for this election to be to feel like a success for them,” University of Virginia politics expert Kyle Kondik told GZERO.
Though these races are local, they have national implications, as the Democratic Party desperately seeks to build some momentum after a tough year. The party is struggling for leadership, its messaging has been muddled, and it hasn’t been able to even temper – let alone stop – President Donald Trump’s policy agenda.
One Democrat who has brought some life to the party this year is Zohran Mamdani, the nominee for New York City mayor. A democratic socialist, Mamdani rode the waves of a successful social-media campaign to defeat former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in the primary, and is now all-but-certain to become the mayor. This doesn’t mean his message, though, will work elsewhere in the country.
“There may be something appealing about Mamdani’s campaigning style – the short videos, that sort of thing.” said Kondik. “But I don’t think staking out left-wing positions is going to suddenly be seen as a winning strategy.”
Can Milei clean up the midterm mess?
Argentine President Javier Milei’s libertarian movement is on the line as the South American country heads to the polls on Sunday in legislative elections.
The economist-turned-politician, replete with his mutton chops and sometimes a chainsaw, has become a figurehead for a global movement to slash the size of government via “shock therapy.” However, he’s faced some roadblocks recently: unemployment is increasing, the economy is slowing, and a corruption scandal sent government bonds tumbling over the summer. It didn’t help matters that his foreign minister resigned on Wednesday. This has all overshadowed the significant progress that Milei has made in cutting the country’s notoriously high inflation rate.
Though Milei isn’t personally on the ballot this year, an ally from afar has tried to throw his party a lifeline: US President Donald Trump pledged to hand Argentina a $20-billion bailout. The money comes with conditions, though. “If he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Trump said. “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.”
So what’s Milei’s target? Milei’s Libertad Avanza party is still nascent – it was only formed in 2021 – so it has only scant representation in the National Congress. What’s more, only a third of senators are up for reelection, and half the Chamber of Deputies. The goal for Milei, then, is simply to nab a third of all seats in the lower chamber, which will be enough to give him veto power.
Will it happen? “The expectation a couple of months ago was the government was expecting to have a very strong performance in the election and win at least a third of the seats.” Juan Cruz Díaz, the managing director of Buenos Aires-based advisory firm Cefeidas Group, told GZERO. “Now the situation is more challenging.”
Another old leader set to retain power on world’s youngest continent
Côte d’Ivoire on Africa’s West Coast is known for many things: it is the world’s largest cocoa producer, it has large gold reserves – particularly important with gold prices sky high – and it has had its share of world-class soccer players, most notably Didier Drogba.
One thing that the country isn’t known for, at least recently, is democracy. The country hasn’t had a peaceful transition of power in decades: two of the last three presidents were forcibly deposed, and the other was assassinated two years after leaving office. Meanwhile the incumbent leader Alassane Ouattara, who is 83 and seeking a fourth term, has clamped down on opposition leaders and restricted mass gatherings on the grounds that it could cause yet another coup.
What’s more, the opposition is fragmented, according to Eurasia Group’s West Africa analyst Jeanne Ramier.
“Nobody has successfully managed to mobilize against the fourth term,” said Ramier. “Whereas, on the contrary, many people are actually advocating for Ouattara because he’s got a good record, because they want stability and peace.”
Ouattara’s impending victory also highlights a trend across Africa: There are several elderly leaders across the continent, and many are set to stay in charge. It’s a remarkable trend on what is the youngest continent in the world – by some distance – and one that is fueling concerns about the state of democracy across it.
Argentine President Javier Milei speaks to the media while standing on a vehicle with lawmaker Jose Luis Espert during a La Libertad Avanza rally ahead of legislative elections on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, Argentina, on August 27, 2025.
Dual crises throw wrench in Milei’s election plans
The campaign for Argentina’s legislative election officially launched this week, but it couldn’t have gone worse for President Javier Milei. A corruption scandal – one of the very things that he railed against during his successful campaign two years ago – burst into the news after a leaked recording appeared to implicate his sister.
The tapes suggest that Karina Milei, who is also a member of the administration, was involved in a kickback scheme at the National Disability Agency (ANDIS). Nothing has been proven, but the federal authorities stepped up their investigation in response to the leaked audio.
That’s not all for Milei: alongside the corruption scandal are a host of economic issues that have undermined his policy of fiscal “shock therapy.” Output has been stagnant this year, the peso is massively overvalued – this decreases competitiveness of Argentine exports – and public sector pay is down in real terms. Argentina’s central bank also increased its reserve requirements this week, which could further hit the economy. The concern for Milei is that these issues will overwhelm the success he’s had in bringing down inflation and balancing the budget.
“It won’t be a corruption scandal that does him in, it will probably be the economic problems,” said Eugenia Mitchelstein, a social sciences professor at the University of San Andrés in Buenos Aires. “The corruption scandal doesn’t help.”
The Oct. 26 midterm election, where a third of senators and half of the Chamber of Deputies are up for election, is a vital one for the president. The vote will not only be a bellwether for how Argentina feels about his economic approach, but also gives Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party an opportunity to pick up seats in a Congress that has blocked many of the president’s proposed reforms.
What’s the current state of Argentina’s Congress? Milei only co-founded the libertarian LLA in 2021, so its representation in both chambers of the National Congress is paltry: only six of the 72 senators and 38 of the 257 deputies currently belong to LLA. What’s more, Argentina’s politics is heavily fragmented, meaning there are several different parties represented in the Congress – no single party has a majority. The Unión por la Patria (UP), a center-left Peronist grouping that is Milei’s main foe, has a plurality.
What does Milei want? Milei’s first target is to win a third of the seats so that he can gain veto power. Beyond that, the president hopes to enact tax, labor, and pension reforms that will structurally alter Argentina’s economy. So far he has been able to muscle some changes through the National Congress, such as the big omnibus bill passed in June 2024 to deregulate the economy and hand the president more power. But his party’s threadbare representation limited what he was able to achieve, forcing him to negotiate with his opponents from a weak position. That could change after the October election.
“Even if the government does extremely well, they won’t have their own majority in Congress, so they will still need to negotiate with the more moderate sectors of the opposition,” Juan Cruz Díaz, the managing director of Buenos Aires-based advisory firm Cefeidas Group, told GZERO. “But they will do it from a different standpoint, from a different legitimacy. They will have more leverage.”
Who’s leading the charge against Milei? UP may be the biggest opposition party, but they have a leadership crisis. Over 40% of Argentinians said they didn’t know who the leader of the opposition was, or said there was none, per a Pulso poll from earlier this month. Another 25% said it was former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the left-wing Peronist leader who is currently under house arrest for corruption, and is barred from politics for life.
“[The opposition] is not only fragmented, it is leaderless,” said Marcelo J. Garcia, Americas director at Horizon Engage consultancy. “Milei is the only national leader that controls his political space, his political party. So that really plays to his advantage.”
Why should I care about Argentina? The Latin American nation of over 47 million people is better known for its soccer stars, beautiful Patagonian mountain range, and delicious beef steaks. But Milei is creating his own level of fame. His brash brand of chainsaw politics has become something exemplary for right wingers across the globe, with libertarians proclaiming his premiership as a paragon of success.
This election gives Argentinians the chance to say how they feel about Milei’s leadership, and whether he’s done enough to stabilize the country’s turbulent economy. It could have major ramifications for how Milei governs going forward, according to Mitchelstein.
“If he does well, if he gets, say, 40-42% of the vote, it will confirm his intuition, and it will probably make him more Milei than ever,” Mitchelstein told GZERO. “If he doesn't get that many votes, say, 37-38%, it might actually lead him to rethink his government, and also the way he’s been ruling.”