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Leaders of Poland, Nordic & Baltic countries affirm strong support for Ukraine
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Northern Italy.
What was the purpose of the big leaders meeting in Sweden today?
Well, it was not entirely unique, but highly important meetings of the Nordic countries, the Baltic countries, and Poland. It's eight countries in total that came together on the leaders level in order to, first, of course, to say that we do support Ukraine and we are ready to do more, to say that we are ready to do more for defense. And these are countries, you should know, that they're all well above the 2% target of defense spending. Poland is above 4%, even. These are also the countries in the world that are the highest in terms of their proportion of GDP in terms of supporting Ukraine.
So the fact that they came together today to say this, "We are ready to do more to support Ukraine, we are ready to do more to reinforce our defense and security," was, of course, a strong signal of reassurance to Ukraine, a signal of some sort of political deterrence to Russia, but of course was also a signal of sorts to the United States and the incoming Trump administration that, "Here we are. We ready to do our part. We've already done it and we're ready to do more."
What is the nature of the political transition ongoing in the European Union?
Well, it's going amazingly well, against expectations, I have to say. All of the proposed members of the European Commission have been approved by the European Parliament. The entire commission has now been approved in a vote. So the commission comes into force, the sort of second Ursula von der Leyen Commission on the 1st of December. That's also the date when the new president of the European Council, António Costa, takes over. So by December 1st, the entire European Union transition is there, and the European Union is institutionally ready for the next five years. It will be demanding, yes.
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Ian Explains: How does the European Union work?
How does the European Union work, exactly? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the different institutions of the EU and how they work together. In recent EU elections, the centrist European People’s Party held onto a slim majority , pushing back on the rise of far-right nationalist parties that have surged in national elections in places like France and Germany. The EPP will now have to find a way to deliver on key issues like migration reform and the Green Deal using a coalition in European Parliament, no easy task for a body with 720 members that represent some 450 million citizens. But how do EU laws actually get passed? The institutions of the EU can be hard to keep track of: there’s also the European Commision, the European Council, the Council of the EU—admittedly confusing. Ian Bremmer unpacks the seven major institutions that govern the European Union, the world’s largest trading bloc and most ambitious effort at supranational governance, a political experiment that’s turned a historically fractious continent into a unified whole.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at BusinessEurope conference in Brussels, Belgium March 5, 2020.
Hard Numbers: Von der Leyen seeks reelection, Israel GDP plummets, Ukrainian troops captured, Something’s smelly in Cape Town, Moïse’s widow indicted
20: Since the start of the war in Gaza, Israel's GDP has plummeted by nearly 20%. The biggest economic hits came from the government calling 300,000 reservists away from their jobs to Gaza, relocating 120,000 Israelis away from the border, and restricting Palestinian West Bank workers from working in the country.
1,000: Up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops appear to have been captured during Russia’s takeover of the east Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. The loss is a sign of military supplies dwindling in the absence of new US funding, damaging morale, and Ukraine’s ability to hold the line.
19,000: After searching for days to locate the source of the “unimaginable stench” that engulfed Cape Town, South African officials finally found the culprit: a ship transporting 19,000 live cattle from Brazil to Iraq. The ship is set to depart soon, but the country is seeing an uptick in livestock bound for the Middle East passing through Cape Town as an alternative to the Red Sea route amid Houthi violence there.
51: Martine Moïse is among 51 people indicted for alleged involvement in the July 2021 assassination of her husband, then-Haitian President Jovenel Moïse. Attorneys for Mrs. Moïse, who was wounded in the attack, denied the charges and questioned the legitimacy of the 122-page indictment, which doesn’t provide evidence of her direct involvement.
Can the EU get aid to Gaza?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Milan.
Can Europe help with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza?
Well, in theory, absolutely. The European Commission has tripled the amount of money available for humanitarian help to Gaza. But the problem is, of course, getting it in. For reasons that is beyond me, the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is closed. There's a lot of floods of humanitarian help outside that has been flowing into Egypt, waiting to cross, but they are not opening up the border. I would hope that there will be soon an agreement to open up that border and allow the help to get into Gaza. There’re huge numbers, millions of people that are really suffering and need that particular help. Now, that is also politically important, obviously.
What's going to be the effect of the Polish election?
Well, in a rather dark picture, in terms of global and other affairs, this is a bright spot. A rather decisive win for the democratic and European opposition in Poland. Now, it's going to take some time to form a government. The PiS, the outgoing party, is still the largest party in parliament, so they will get a first go at forming a government. And I think they will try all sorts of tricks for a while. That's going to take weeks, but they will fail, and then we will have a new government. With Donald Tusk returning as prime minister, we will have a government in Poland that is decidedly democratic, committed to the rule of law, committed to European integration, committed to helping Ukraine. That is in a dark situation otherwise, distinctly good news.
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Hard Numbers: Lampedusa landings soar, Aussies rally for indigenous rights, Vatican makes Holocaust admission, Brand accused of rape
8,000: European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen traveled to the island of Lampedusa, which lies halfway between Sicily and Tunisia, after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called for the EU’s assistance with a wave of small boat arrivals there. Over 8,000 migrants have landed on Lampedusa since Friday. For more on how the immigration debate is dividing European governments, see our explainer here.
20,000: In Brisbane, Australia, 20,000 protestors rallied ahead of an Oct.14 referendum on Indigenous rights. They support measures that would enshrine Indigenous groups in the country’s constitution and set up an advisory body to advance their issues.
1942: A never-before seen letter has revealed that Pope Pius XII knew of the horrors of the Holocaust in 1942, far earlier than previously believed. The letter was released by the Vatican ahead of a major conference on Pius and the Holocaust next month at the Pontifical Gregorian, sponsored by Catholic and Jewish organizations.
6: Ukraine is stepping up its drone attacks. The Russian Defense Ministry says its forces stopped six Ukrainian unmanned craft that were attacking Russian targets in Crimea from different directions on Sunday. On the same day, two Ukrainian drones were shot down near Moscow.
4: Four women have accused British comedian and actor Russell Brand of sexual assaults, including rape, committed between 2006 and 2013. Brand, who has amassed millions of followers by styling himself as an anti-establishment truth teller and wellness guru, has denied all charges, saying they are "a litany of extremely egregious and aggressive attacks as well as some pretty stupid stuff."
Ukrainian kids celebrate International Children's Day In Krakow, Poland.
War, reforms & bureaucracy will decide Ukraine’s EU bid
It’s at war for its survival, yet Ukraine’s candidacy for European Union membership has just been endorsed. While success would be a game-changer for Kyiv, getting there won’t be easy, given the required internal reforms, international bureaucracy, and shifting geopolitics.
The European Commission is clear that Ukraine must carry out serious reforms to join the bloc, but some tough questions need to be answered. Does Ukraine deserve to be an EU member? What about the stringent process and requirements? Is there a natural tie-in to NATO membership? And what are the politics at play, given that Moldova, another former Soviet republic Russia considers to be in its sphere of influence, has been approved, while Georgia has not.
Does Ukraine deserve EU membership? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the announcement from Brussels, tweeting that it’s “the 1st step on the EU membership path that’ll certainly bring our Victory closer.”
But connecting Kyiv’s bid for membership to the war isn’t just a Zelensky-era policy; Ukrainians have long noted that they have paid with their lives for their European aspirations, which helped trigger Russia’s intervention in Ukrainian-controlled territory in 2014. Even European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has acknowledged that Ukrainians are “ready to die” for their pan-European objectives.
What are the processes and requirements? Candidacy is the first seal of approval for membership, but certainly not the last, and it’s no guarantee of success. What is guaranteed, however, is a lot of bureaucracy. In a process that may take a decade — Finland was the quickest to get EU membership in under three years, while Cyprus was the slowest at almost 14 years — final approval must be agreed to unanimously by all 27 member states.
Negotiations involve some serious heavy lifting. Brussels premises membership on several conditions that will require massive judicial and governance overhauls in Kyiv. The big ones are:
- An independent judiciary
- An effective anti-corruption campaign
- Free media laws
- Curbing influential oligarchs
- Laws against money-laundering
- Protection of minorities
These conditions are further split into specific “chapters” of reform — and every chapter will have its own monitoring and assessment phase, the completion of which will also require unanimous approval.
“Successful applicants generally have to deal with issues like corruption and the rule of law, media freedom, and oligarchism,” says Jason Bush, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group. “And although, of course, there's a lot of international sympathy with Ukraine at the moment, these problems are endemic in Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s post-Soviet-era systemic flaws — premised mostly on the oversized and often corrupt links between political and business interests in government and the judiciary, are not easily corrected. The country is currently under martial law, which means no elections or free media, while the war is ongoing.
“It’s not a perfect democracy either,” says Bush, claiming that there are issues with political competition, and Zelensky, as a wartime president, can easily, for example, issue a decree against a pro-Russia party, which would create the question of political competition — a crucial yardstick for EU membership,
There is also the thorny issue of migration, which doesn’t resonate well in many parts of the EU.
“Do people really want to give free movement of labor to, you know, 50 million Ukrainians? Migration from Eastern Europe has been a source of political tension in many European countries. It's one of the factors that Brexit brings up,” says Bush. Considering Ukraine’s huge population and relative poverty compared to the other parts of the continent, opening up Europe’s borders is a “serious political obstacle” because of the economic cost of integration.
As for reforms, although it’s unrealistic for Kyiv to implement reforms before hostilities cease, Ukraine has already managed to adopt and implement almost 70% of the EU’s laws — aka the acquis — since signing a bevy of political and trade agreements with Brussels in 2014.
Is EU membership tied to NATO? Remember, Russia’s red line is Ukraine joining NATO. Twenty-one of the EU’s 27 member states are in NATO (with new aspirants Finland and Sweden, that’ll be 23). Put simply, some NATO members are EU members, but most EU members are in NATO.
While Zelensky has walked back its intentions of joining NATO, NATO leaders met on the same day the European Commission announced Kyiv’s EU candidacy to discuss further integrating Ukraine into NATO’s ambit. They announced a comprehensive assistance package to improve Ukraine’s interoperability with NATO forces by transitioning it from Soviet-era to modern NATO weaponry. Ukraine may not be a member but is surely being armed like one.
Moreover, the EU now openly coordinates with NATO for tackling threats, from cybersecurity to disinformation, but pursues cooperation on military mobility so that “NATO forces can cross borders faster and more easily when needed.” Importantly, even discounting the all-for-one-and-one-for-all joint defense agreement in NATO’s Article 5, the latest EU and NATO agreements mean that Ukraine doesn’t have to be a NATO member to enjoy NATO benefits, especially if it becomes an EU member.
On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow didn’t have a problem with Ukraine’s economic integration with Europe, but that it’s concerned about its territory being used for military purposes by Europe.
“The Russians are obsessed with NATO's expansion and NATO membership [for Ukraine],” says Bush. “Right now, It doesn't look like they are regarding joining the EU in the same way … But, you know, what else can Russia do? It's already invaded.”
Continental politics. The fact that the EU’s big three — Germany, France, and Italy — were in Kyiv a day before the EU announced Kyiv’s candidacy, with the oft-skeptical Dutch also making encouraging noises, means that the EU’s naysayers and the expansionists are getting over their differences.
But Moldova and Georgia — two former Soviet states that applied for EU membership soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, fearing they might be Putin’s next targets — saw mixed results. Moldova was granted candidacy — “a direct shot across Russia’s bow,” according to Ian Bremmer — but not Georgia. How were these decisions made?
According to Bush, Moldova’s closer connection to the war in Ukraine — some believe the Russians plan to advance and link up with the breakaway region of Transnistria — makes it a more likely EU candidate, compared to Georgia.
“The fear that Moldova is potentially a Russian target is making the EU more, not less, determined to publicly offer this support,” says Bush. Thus, the ongoing geopolitical shifts in Eastern Europe clearly weigh into the EU’s calculus, in addition to domestic politics in those countries. The fact that Georgia’s democratic record is more tarnished than Moldova’s doesn’t help its case either, he added.
Ukraine’s bid for candidacy needs a unanimous vote by the European Council on June 23-24 to move forward. Given the current sympathies for the country, it will probably go through. But the larger question is how long it'll take.
In the unwieldy structure of the EU, fates linger and issues simmer. Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey are all membership candidates but have everything from bilateral disputes (such as North Macedonia vs. EU member state Bulgaria) to autocratic leadership (like Turkey) slowing their applications.
Turkey’s membership complications are a yardstick for the political hurdles to come. Granted candidacy in 1999, Ankara began accession talks in 2005. But since President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s estrangement from the West, the process has been dead in the water.
Naturally, the path is going to be different for Ukraine, a contemporary darling of the West. But with its complicated and corrupt internal dynamics, compounded by the ongoing war, Europe’s attitude towards immigration and an incoming recession, the road between Kyiv and Brussels looks long and arduous.
Additional reporting by Beatrice Catena.
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Macron's reelection and the future of France
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from New Delhi, India.
What's the number one challenge for President Macron now, when he's been reelected?
First, of course, he has been reelected. That's highly important. He's the first French president to be reelected for a second term in 20 years. That's quite an achievement. But he now needs to secure some sort of parliamentary majority, and that election is coming up in a couple of weeks. That's going to be critical for all of his domestic reform agenda, which remains critical for the future of France.
Is Europe seeking a deeper engagement with India in this particular situation?
Well, the question is distinctly yes. Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission was here yesterday, delivered a very powerful speech, including on Ukraine, and then decided to set up a trade and technology council between the EU and India. There is such a council with the United States, but the fact that the second such is set up with India is a sign in itself. We need to engage closer with the world's largest democracy. We need to engage closer within the Pacific, and what's been happening here in Delhi in the last few days is the sure sign of that.
EU fast-tracks Ukraine membership application
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Washington.
First question, what happened to Ukraine's application for EU membership?
Well, that's a process that takes a long time, but what was decided by the heads of state and government of the European Union yesterday was to send it immediately to the European Commission for its assessment. That's a process that normally takes some time, but the fact that it was done immediately is as strong a signal as you can get for a process that unavoidably takes a substantial amount of time.
Secondly, what can we do to support better Ukraine, militarily?
Well, there has been a question of fighter aircraft. That's a more complicated thing. I don't think the US is particularly keen on that because of the risk of escalation. And the key thing I would say is to have a very rapid supply of anti-tank weapons. That's been supplied by the US, by Sweden, by the UK and by others, and the more we can increase that supply, because they will use them, the more they will slow down and possibly stop the Russian advance. More complex weapons take time, require training, will not be effective immediately. Anti-tank weapons that's what's needed for peace in Europe.