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The future of war: James Stavridis on China, Russia, and the biggest security threats to the US
Technology is rapidly changing how modern wars are being fought, and the United States needs to reevaluate its national security priorities to adapt. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Admiral James Stavridis, joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast to discuss the transformation of war, China’s calculus in Taiwan, and the biggest threats facing the US, both inside the border and abroad. Stavridis warns China is still intent on pursuing its expansionist goals and territorial claims in the South China Sea. He also thinks President Xi Jinping may be looking at Russia’s stalled Ukraine invasion, as well as the global reaction to it, and wondering whether military action in Taiwan is in China’s best interest. Stavridis predicts a “new triad” of warfare–unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and cyber special forces–will lead armies around the world to shift their focus from personnel and artillery to unmanned systems and AI. While it will lead to reduced costs for traditional militaries, it’s also empowering terrorist groups and malefactors in an increasingly high-stakes game of asymmetrical warfare. Stavridis’ newest book, The Restless Wave, is out October 8.
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A kamikaze drone with a warhead is performing a demonstration flight during the 2nd Drone Racing Tournament by the Federation of Military Technological Sports of Ukraine in Bilohorodka, Kyiv region, north-central Ukraine, on July 21, 2024.
Ukraine aims to produce game-changing drones
Ukrainian startups are rushing to manufacture AI-enabled drones that could give them an edge in the ongoing war with Russia. Swarmer is one such company that’s working on the technology, which allows for automated drone swarms in which humans only intervene to sign off on aerial strikes.
AI-enabled drones could also prevent Russian signal-jamming because they’re not dependent on maintaining connections with human pilots, a problem that increasingly undermines existing drones. By one estimate, Ukrainian drones are only achieving a 30-50% target hit rate currently, but that could improve to 80% with AI, Max Makarchuk of Ukrainian accelerator Brave1 told Reuters.
Ukraine has become a testing ground for AI warfare. While much of that technology comes from US companies, the need for defense technology has also spurred innovation in the domestic Ukrainian market.Workers repair damage on the roof of a multi-storey apartment block following a reported drone attack in Moscow, Russia
What follows the drone attack on Moscow?
Early Tuesday, Moscow was hit by several drones. Two people were injured, though no one was killed. Residential buildings were damaged, though it’s unclear whether they were targets of the attack or were simply damaged by debris as the drones were shot down. Russia says the drones were sent by Ukraine, but Kyiv denies this. If this was a Ukrainian attack on Moscow, the event raises three questions.
One, have the Ukrainians decided the Russians are incapable of enforcing “red lines” by retaliating effectively against Ukraine? If so, what does that say about how Ukraine approaches Russian forces in Crimea as its looming counteroffensive gains momentum?
Two, does an attack that threatens civilians in Moscow open Ukraine to charges of war crimes? Yes, Russia can be charged for civilian attacks on a far, far broader scale, but any deliberate attack on civilians is considered a war crime under international law.
Three, will these attacks change the mood inside Russia in a meaningful way? Will Russia’s vulnerability reinforce Putin’s argument to Russian civilians that Russia is fighting a war of self-defense? Or will it just make Putin and Russian air defense look dangerously weak?
Tiny drones in Ukraine are destroying tanks
One of the the most important and decisive weapons on the battlefield in the Russia/Ukraine conflict is the drone.
Combat drones have soared over the front lines, but so are commercial drones, the type you can buy at a local electronics shop. Both sides are using them to spot the enemy and destroy targets.
Although they're not as durable or powerful as military-grade hardware, low-cost consumer drones are a particularly important way for Ukraine to resist a powerful enemy like Russia.
In this GZERO exclusive, we speak to a Ukrainian soldier and drone operator about the low-tech tools hitting the battlefield, and learn more about how drones are changing the face of warfare in the 21st century.
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